Rodion_Romanovic wrote:KoTeMoRe wrote:LMFS wrote:KoTeMoRe wrote:However, in order to get Donbass, Ukraine must either get Crimea back or agree to give it to Russia. There's no other strategic possibility given the depth Russia has though Crimea.
Neither of the two options do actually exist, do they? I don't understand why you say Crimea is so relevant for Donbass, when Mariupol for instance is like 50 km away from the Russian border. They can completely control the battlefield and airspace from the Eastern direction alone. Of course from Crimea they can easily close the sea of Azov and further complicate things for Ukraine, without even firing a shot.
But if they're dumb enough to try now, I'm all for it. let them try and find out.
If I was living in LPR/DPR I can easily imagine myself wanting to see the end of all this shit, no matter if it means war. Considering the distance to Russia and that a good part of the population of the Ukrainian controlled parts of the region are probably more than ready to participate too, Ukraine has more to lose than to win, actually.
Crimea affords depth in Ukraine. If you want to make your Turkish drones fly over Donbass they will have to depart from beyond the Dnepr to be at least able to operate without getting zapped on the ground. With Crimea that means a huge delay in movement so basically unlike NK or Syria, there will not be around the clock TB-2 coverage. Plus the further you depart, the further it could be easy for spotters in Ukraine to pinpoint pathways. Therefore predict axis of travel. These UCAV cruise at 160km/h this means that they would have to fly for over 2+ hours before getting into range, and because lower payload Ukraine might have very little windows of action given the drones would have to fly back to their lanch pads, rearm and come again that's a capability gap of at least 6 hours. This is the best case that none gets shot down.
Logistics are against Ukraine.
Donetz itself is about 60 km from the Russian border, and Lugansk less than 30km.
Maybe Russia can provide a nice amount of antiair system, and provide guiding and targeting data from its own much more poweful radars. If the data could be linked, they could be even flying a beriev A50 continuosly between Rostov and Sevastopol and monitoring any flying activity, even small ones and at low altitude.
I would be curious to see how the new 57mm anti air gun would behave in this occasion.
Anyway, Russia has the possibility to properly study the TB2 drones from Syria (and Lybia). It is highly possible that they have enough possibilities to deploy there some sort of electronic equipment to disturb the control signal and make the drone land or fall on the ground.
Are you taking the piss? You really think it will be The LNR/DNR fighting it out with UAV's?
This is going to be the Russian watershed moment vs UAV's. This is why Turkey is preparing Ukraine with different drones and different tactics.