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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Backman
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  Backman Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:13 pm

    ^ Russia has basically been using the Taiwan model as Anatoly Karlin wrote about in 2018. Here are some bullet points of his report. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/31-steps-for-ukraine/

    “Winning hearts and minds,” apart from being a cuck move, is unfeasible anyway; even going so far as giving back Crimea will not restore goodwill and invite only well-deserved contempt. Going back to giving gibsmedats (e.g. gas subsidies) would also be idiotic. Even the kremlins have realized this that you don’t buy loyalty or friendship with that, though they have yet to extend that lesson to the rest of the Sovietstans.

    Reunification through military means was ruled out – probably permanently – in May 2014, when Putin recognized Poroshenko as the legitimately elected President of the Ukraine. While certain nationalists, including on this blog, still entertain fantasies about invading the Ukraine and ruling it like a Reichskommissariat, that would be worse than just immoral – it would almost certainly fail, since it buys into the narrative that Ukrainians can only become Russians at the point of a gun.

    At the same time, Russia has no obligation to tolerate the existence of a hostile anti-Russian project on its borders that furthermore has the gall to parasite on Russian history and culture on account of possessing so little of its own. The Ukraine needs to be strip mined of its human capital.

    For inspiration, I would look to China’s “31 Steps for Taiwan” program.

        On Feb. 28, it unveiled a package of 31 “incentives” to attract Taiwanese people and businesses to the mainland, offering tax breaks and subsidies for high-tech companies, research grants for academics, and a promise to allow Taiwanese companies to bid for government infrastructure projects and even become involved in China’s “One Belt, One Road” global development plan.

       China called the measures an expression of its belief that there is “one family” on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese Vice Premier Shih Jun-ji cast it as an effort to undermine the island’s economy.

       “China’s attempt to attract Taiwan’s capital and talent, especially high tech and young students, has clear political intentions,” he said at a news conference, unveiling eight counter­measures designed to keep people at home.

       In 2012, Oxford Economics judged that Taiwan faced the largest “talent deficit” among 46 countries surveyed, and the research firm recently said that the conclusion stands today.

    Taiwan’s performance on the Nature Index, a proxy for elite scientific output, has collapsed by 40% in the past five years – the largest collapse of any country. A testament to the success of the 31 Steps.

    Meanwhile, the development of a separate Taiwanese identity, which had previously grown rapidly, has basically stalled in this same period.

    Now in one sense, this will be harder, since China is much bigger than Taiwan, and Ukraine also has an association agreement with the EU. But in another sense, it will also be easier, because Russian wages are 3x higher than Ukrainian ones, whereas it’s the opposite ratio between China and Taiwan. Russia needs to come up with a program along the lines of China’s “31 Measures for Taiwan,” involving a complex package of subsidies, marketing, and immigration deregulation to strip mine the separatist entity of its human capital. By strip mining the Ukraine of human capital, I mean something more sophisticated than just open borders and handing out Russian passports like candy (though that should certainly also be done, even if Poland will necessarily do better for now on account of its higher wages).

    I mean selectively targeting Ukraine’s remaining elites and O-Ring sectors for transplantation into Russia wholesale, which is specifically what China is doing to Taiwan – successfully, despite their triple wage differential (my post on how the small, complex O-Ring sector determines wages for the economy as a whole).

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:26 pm

    The thing is that this 31-steps transition has already hit Ukraine in 2014 and later. That is why Kharkov tank factories ceased
    production of new tanks and are barely able to get old junk into service. Similar magical loss of capability is seen elsewhere
    in Ukraine's economy. Collapse factors well over 40% are in evidence. Millions of Ukrainians voted with their feet
    after the 2014 Nazi coup and these were the cream of the crop. People who understood that economic ties to Russia were
    not superfluous and who actually had skills other than Maidan hopping like retarded rabbits.

    I do not think that the current left-overs in Ukraine are worth harvesting. Let them go to NATzO and clean toilets.
    The anti-Russian project called Banderastan is an economic husk already. It is in the final stages of catabolic rot
    and NATzO is not going to pony up the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to resurrect it. This may sound exaggerated,
    but the facts are there to show it. Also, Ukraine got between 200 and 300 billion dollars from Russia between 1991 and
    2014. This is not chump change and has stopped. Belorus should take note.

    The idiots who are in charge in Kiev have even screwed over their own civilian airline industry by banning Russian overflights.
    Their one-note-Johnny, Russia-hating brains did not account for geography. Russia can bypass Ukraine with no effort and
    trivial costs, but Banderastan cannot bypass Russia without making prime revenue routes (e.g. South-East Asia for tourism)
    into money losing operations.

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    Tai Hai Chen
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  Tai Hai Chen Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:22 pm

    kvs wrote:The thing is that this 31-steps transition has already hit Ukraine in 2014 and later.   That is why Kharkov tank factories ceased
    production of new tanks and are barely able to get old junk into service.   Similar magical loss of capability is seen elsewhere
    in Ukraine's economy.   Collapse factors well over 40% are in evidence.   Millions of Ukrainians voted with their feet
    after the 2014 Nazi coup and these were the cream of the crop.   People who understood that economic ties to Russia were
    not superfluous and who actually had skills other than Maidan hopping like retarded rabbits.  

    I do not think that the current left-overs in Ukraine are worth harvesting.   Let them go to NATzO and clean toilets.
    The anti-Russian project called Banderastan is an economic husk already.   It is in the final stages of catabolic rot
    and NATzO is not going to pony up the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to resurrect it.    This may sound exaggerated,
    but the facts are there to show it.   Also, Ukraine got between 200 and 300 billion dollars from Russia between 1991 and
    2014.   This is not chump change and has stopped.   Belorus should take note.

    The idiots who are in charge in Kiev have even screwed over their own civilian airline industry by banning Russian overflights.
    Their one-note-Johnny, Russia-hating brains did not account for geography.   Russia can bypass Ukraine with no effort and
    trivial costs, but Banderastan cannot bypass Russia without making prime revenue routes (e.g. South-East Asia for tourism)
    into money losing operations.


    Turkey has been pumping billions into Ukraine. Turkey use Ukraine as Turkey's sword against Russia to rebuild the Ottoman.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  Backman Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:24 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:



    Turkey has been pumping billions into Ukraine. Turkey use Ukraine as Turkey's sword against Russia to rebuild the Ottoman.

    Turkey doesn't have billions to pump. I heard the other day that Turkey actually has negative foreign exchange reserves currently. Since I believe in the multi polar world, I don't oppose Turkey trying to become a real power instead of a Nato patsy. But Erdogan has made dictator mistake after dictator mistake. Firing your central bank head and appointing yourself is about the most ridiculous dictator mistake as you can get. The Turkish economy is a disaster and that is sad for the people of Turkey.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Turkey-foreign-exchange-reserves-2020-09-17

    This fringe collaboration between Ukraine and Turkey is cute. It is not Nato/US sanctioned collaboration so Russia doesn't have to worry about it.

    Russia itself has more connection with Turkey than Ukraine does. The Russian defense minister and Putins spokesman are fluent in Turkish.

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    GarryB
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  GarryB Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:05 am

    If Turkey wants to waste its money down a very deep and corrupt money pit called the Ukraine then let them... it in no way hurts Russia.


    I would think a 10 step programme to let the Ukraine continue to kill itself would be a safer bet for Russia... they are never going to be much more than a more larger Albania, except Albania is in the EU isn't it?

    Russia is not obliged to save the Ukraine... people often drown trying to save people who are drowning... the victim panics and starts thrashing around and ends up drowning the person trying to rescue them and then drown themselves... it is hard to just watch, but they are doing this all themselves... on purpose... it is suicide and if Russia tries to interfere then it will find they will try to take them with them...

    And for what?

    Most of the real talent has already either left for Russia or the EU, anything worth anything that was not bolted down probably now belongs to Americans or Chinese or Turkey... Russia isn't going to get those back and nor is the Ukraine.

    In the future when the US has gotten off its high horse the regimes they propped up will have to learn to fend for themselves... which they can only do with honest trade with neighbours and other countries around the world.

    Russia and Ukraine might never even be friends but that hurts the Ukraine more than it hurts Russia.

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:16 pm

    Two years ago, a #Ukrainian squadron of three ships broke through the blockade and seized part of the #Crimean territory near the pier.
    #Ukraine #Russia #Crimea
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mnXpWMAA_8Sl?format=jpg&name=large
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    https://twitter.com/5thSu/status/1332263643032014849
    franco
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    Post  franco Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:23 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Two years ago, a #Ukrainian squadron of three ships broke through the blockade and seized part of the #Crimean territory near the pier.
    #Ukraine #Russia #Crimea
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mnXpWMAA_8Sl?format=jpg&name=large
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mppKW4AAY5sd?format=jpg&name=large
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mrGiXUAAejG0?format=jpg&name=large
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mtIQXcAIJ0t3?format=jpg&name=large
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0mzWcXYAAlJMB?format=jpg&name=large
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 En0m1pJWEAANZHa?format=jpg&name=large

    https://twitter.com/5thSu/status/1332263643032014849

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    Post  nero Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:45 pm

    Twitter accounts linked to Turkish MoD have started to concentrate on Ukraine.

    Recent announcements of Ukrainian MoD regarding 'ceasefire violations'.

    It feels like a renewed war in Donbas is going to happen quite soon.
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    Post  LMFS Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:37 pm

    The Ukrainian Armed Forces assessed the chances of a forceful return of Donbass to Ukraine

    The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), General Ruslan Khomchak, assessed the chances of returning Donbass to the country by military means and admitted that he did not see any prospects for this decision. The statement of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quoted by the Ukrainian media.

    According to Khomchak, there is no purely military solution to return Donbas to Ukraine, and there are several reasons for this.

    I want everyone to understand: I do not see a purely military solution to the issue in Donbass, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also


    - he said.

    According to the general, in the event of the outbreak of hostilities in the territory of Donbass, Ukraine will violate international humanitarian law in terms of military operations on the territory of densely populated areas, which could lead to numerous losses among the civilian population.

    (...) they will be calculated in three-, four-digit numbers for advancing 3-5 km inland


    - declared Homchak.

    In addition, the Ukrainian army will suffer heavy losses, especially since not all residents of Donbass "support Ukraine." Therefore, there will be "shots in the back", and all movements of the Ukrainian troops will "merge to the other side." Also, according to the general, there is a risk of Russian interference in the conflict.

    Earlier it was reported that Kiev again began to pull military equipment to the area of ​​the contact line. It has been suggested that the Armed Forces intend to apply the experience of the "Nagorno-Karabakh military conflict" in the Donbas.

    https://en.topwar.ru/177524-v-vsu-ocenili-shansy-silovogo-vozvrata-donbassa-ukraine.html

    IMF denied a new round of credit and the pensions were modified putting at risk thousands of old people. Maybe Ukraine is being forced to go to war.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:45 pm

    What a **** this Homchak. Those "not all supporting 'Ukraine'" residents will not be shooting your punitive battalions in the back
    but fighting them from the front.

    The Kiev regime and its Bandarastan are invaders and can never be liberators.

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    Post  franco Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:27 pm

    kvs wrote:What a **** this Homchak.  Those "not all supporting 'Ukraine'" residents will not be shooting your punitive battalions in the back
    but fighting them from the front.

    The Kiev regime and its Bandarastan are invaders and can never be liberators.


    You know that the official Ukrainian government version is that Donbass is full of Russian hybrid invaders supported by a few Ukrainian traitors, that after spending time in a re-education camp will see the errors of their way. Therefore there is no need to communicate with the Republics as they do not exist. Pure Goebbels!!


    Last edited by franco on Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:00 pm


    I say they should go for it

    Carpe diem

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:53 am

    lol1 pwnd

    IMF refused to provide Ukraine with financial assistance
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    Post  kvs Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:44 am

    franco wrote:
    kvs wrote:What a **** this Homchak.  Those "not all supporting 'Ukraine'" residents will not be shooting your punitive battalions in the back
    but fighting them from the front.

    The Kiev regime and its Bandarastan are invaders and can never be liberators.


    You know that the official Ukrainian government version is that Donbass is full of Russian hybrid invaders supported by a few Ukrainian traitors, that after spending time in a re-education camp will see the errors of their way. Therefore there is no need to communicate with the Republics as they do not exist. Pure Goebbels!!

    This thinking is part of the Holodomor hoax. Even my Ukrainian relatives swallow the BS that Russians in the Donbass are squatters
    who moved there after the indigenous Ukrainians were genocided. The fact that Lenin and Trotsky gifted Novorossiya to their
    concoction called the Ukrainian SSR is totally ignored as if it never happened. Novorossiya spans from the Donbass to Odessa.
    There were never any indigenous Ukrainian majorities there. And Kievan Rus from which Russia originates predates anything
    called Okraina or Ukraina. Ukr nazionalists steal Russian history and claim that Russians are not even Slavs.

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    Post  kvs Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:46 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:lol1 pwnd

    IMF refused to provide Ukraine with financial assistance

    Even the IMF can't handle the fact that all of the money will be looted in days and never paid back.
    Colonial engineering has its limits.

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    Post  miketheterrible Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:01 am

    kvs wrote:
    franco wrote:
    kvs wrote:What a **** this Homchak.  Those "not all supporting 'Ukraine'" residents will not be shooting your punitive battalions in the back
    but fighting them from the front.

    The Kiev regime and its Bandarastan are invaders and can never be liberators.


    You know that the official Ukrainian government version is that Donbass is full of Russian hybrid invaders supported by a few Ukrainian traitors, that after spending time in a re-education camp will see the errors of their way. Therefore there is no need to communicate with the Republics as they do not exist. Pure Goebbels!!

    This thinking is part of the Holodomor hoax.   Even my Ukrainian relatives swallow the BS that Russians in the Donbass are squatters
    who moved there after the indigenous Ukrainians were genocided.   The fact that Lenin and Trotsky gifted Novorossiya to their
    concoction called the Ukrainian SSR is totally ignored as if it never happened.    Novorossiya spans from the Donbass to Odessa.
    There were never any indigenous Ukrainian majorities there.   And Kievan Rus from which Russia originates predates anything
    called Okraina or Ukraina.   Ukr nazionalists steal Russian history and claim that Russians are not even Slavs.  


    Did you ever point that out to your Ukrainian relatives. I did to mine and provided proof and they were more or less silent afterwards
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    Post  kvs Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:43 am

    I gave up since the "learned" one from the ones I am in touch with is a fanatic. Ukr pseudo-academia has done a good job
    of establishing the nazionalist religion. They have all sorts "authoritative" books and studies confirming their biases. Canada
    is actually a base for this pseudo-academia and Ukraine took their influence in without resistance. The Ukrainians living in
    Canada's prairie provinces are not the same as the ones in eastern Canada who came after WWII. The western ones are
    pioneer immigrants and the eastern ones have a lot of Nazi collaborators. My diaspora Ukrainian branch of the family left Ukraine
    before WWII but managed to be influenced with the same crap.

    From the sound of it you may be dealing with more balanced viewpoints even if the propaganda affects western Canadian
    Ukrainians as well.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:04 am

    kvs wrote:I gave up since the "learned" one from the ones I am in touch with is a fanatic.   Ukr pseudo-academia has done a good job
    of establishing the nazionalist religion.   They have all sorts "authoritative" books and studies confirming their biases.    Canada
    is actually a base for this pseudo-academia and Ukraine took their influence in without resistance.    The Ukrainians living in
    Canada's prairie provinces are not the same as the ones in eastern Canada who came after WWII.   The western ones are
    pioneer immigrants and the eastern ones have a lot of Nazi collaborators.   My diaspora Ukrainian branch of the family left Ukraine
    before WWII but managed to be influenced with the same crap.

    From the sound of it you may be dealing with more balanced viewpoints even if the propaganda affects western Canadian
    Ukrainians as well.

    Once Ukraine eventually disintegrates it'll be much harder to justify their nazionalism.
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    Post  kvs Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:52 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    kvs wrote:I gave up since the "learned" one from the ones I am in touch with is a fanatic.   Ukr pseudo-academia has done a good job
    of establishing the nazionalist religion.   They have all sorts "authoritative" books and studies confirming their biases.    Canada
    is actually a base for this pseudo-academia and Ukraine took their influence in without resistance.    The Ukrainians living in
    Canada's prairie provinces are not the same as the ones in eastern Canada who came after WWII.   The western ones are
    pioneer immigrants and the eastern ones have a lot of Nazi collaborators.   My diaspora Ukrainian branch of the family left Ukraine
    before WWII but managed to be influenced with the same crap.

    From the sound of it you may be dealing with more balanced viewpoints even if the propaganda affects western Canadian
    Ukrainians as well.

    Once Ukraine eventually disintegrates it'll be much harder to justify their nazionalism.

    Unfortunately this is the only way it appears that the will learn. Maybe the ones living in Ukraine will disown the clowns
    in the west.



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    Post  LMFS Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:24 am

    When you have the sort of crazy shit one finds in the internet from Ukraine, with little children wielding knives yelling glory to the heroes, death to Moskals and the like, you know the country's future is F* up for the next couple of generations at least. It is sad but you cannot change that easily. So it is only normal that Russia takes it easy recovering certain territories that are historically theirs but may now be populated by no small amounts of nazis and even worse, by many many other ethnic Russians that justify or tolerate them That society needs to be rebuilt from the very bottom, and the bottom they are reaching pretty fast, actually.

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:35 am

    It's not going to be in the direct vicinity.
    But there are preparations.

    Ukraine procuring different type of TB-2.

    They already did Battalion wide transfers and snap axis conversions. Off course only battalion level forces, but it is a sign.

    However, in order to get Donbass, Ukraine must either get Crimea back or agree to give it to Russia. There's no other strategic possibility given the depth Russia has though Crimea.

    But if they're dumb enough to try now, I'm all for it. let them try and find out.
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    Post  LMFS Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:54 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:However, in order to get Donbass, Ukraine must either get Crimea back or agree to give it to Russia. There's no other strategic possibility given the depth Russia has though Crimea.

    Neither of the two options do actually exist, do they? I don't understand why you say Crimea is so relevant for Donbass, when Mariupol for instance is like 50 km away from the Russian border. They can completely control the battlefield and airspace from the Eastern direction alone. Of course from Crimea they can easily close the sea of Azov and further complicate things for Ukraine, without even firing a shot.

    But if they're dumb enough to try now, I'm all for it. let them try and find out.

    If I was living in LPR/DPR I can easily imagine myself wanting to see the end of all this shit, no matter if it means war. Considering the distance to Russia and that a good part of the population of the Ukrainian controlled parts of the region are probably more than ready to participate too, Ukraine has more to lose than to win, actually.

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:46 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:However, in order to get Donbass, Ukraine must either get Crimea back or agree to give it to Russia. There's no other strategic possibility given the depth Russia has though Crimea.

    Neither of the two options do actually exist, do they? I don't understand why you say Crimea is so relevant for Donbass, when Mariupol for instance is like 50 km away from the Russian border. They can completely control the battlefield and airspace from the Eastern direction alone. Of course from Crimea they can easily close the sea of Azov and further complicate things for Ukraine, without even firing a shot.

    But if they're dumb enough to try now, I'm all for it. let them try and find out.

    If I was living in LPR/DPR I can easily imagine myself wanting to see the end of all this shit, no matter if it means war. Considering the distance to Russia and that a good part of the population of the Ukrainian controlled parts of the region are probably more than ready to participate too, Ukraine has more to lose than to win, actually.

    Crimea affords depth in Ukraine. If you want to make your Turkish drones fly over Donbass they will have to depart from beyond the Dnepr to be at least able to operate without getting zapped on the ground. With Crimea that means a huge delay in movement so basically unlike NK or Syria, there will not be around the clock TB-2 coverage. Plus the further you depart, the further it could be easy for spotters in Ukraine to pinpoint pathways. Therefore predict axis of travel. These UCAV cruise at 160km/h this means that they would have to fly for over 2+ hours before getting into range, and because lower payload Ukraine might have very little windows of action given the drones would have to fly back to their lanch pads, rearm and come again that's a capability gap of at least 6 hours. This is the best case that none gets shot down.

    Logistics are against Ukraine.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:24 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    LMFS wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:However, in order to get Donbass, Ukraine must either get Crimea back or agree to give it to Russia. There's no other strategic possibility given the depth Russia has though Crimea.

    Neither of the two options do actually exist, do they? I don't understand why you say Crimea is so relevant for Donbass, when Mariupol for instance is like 50 km away from the Russian border. They can completely control the battlefield and airspace from the Eastern direction alone. Of course from Crimea they can easily close the sea of Azov and further complicate things for Ukraine, without even firing a shot.

    But if they're dumb enough to try now, I'm all for it. let them try and find out.

    If I was living in LPR/DPR I can easily imagine myself wanting to see the end of all this shit, no matter if it means war. Considering the distance to Russia and that a good part of the population of the Ukrainian controlled parts of the region are probably more than ready to participate too, Ukraine has more to lose than to win, actually.

    Crimea affords depth in Ukraine. If you want to make your Turkish drones fly over Donbass they will have to depart from beyond the Dnepr to be at least able to operate without getting zapped on the ground. With Crimea that means a huge delay in movement so basically unlike NK or Syria, there will not be around the clock TB-2 coverage. Plus the further you depart, the further it could be easy for spotters in Ukraine to pinpoint pathways. Therefore predict axis of travel. These UCAV cruise at 160km/h this means that they would have to fly for over 2+ hours before getting into range, and because lower payload Ukraine might  have very little windows of action given the drones would have to fly back to their lanch pads, rearm and come again that's a capability gap of at least 6 hours. This is the best case that none gets shot down.

    Logistics are against Ukraine.

    Donetz itself is about 60 km from the Russian border, and Lugansk less than 30km.
    Maybe Russia can provide a nice amount of antiair system, and provide guiding and targeting data from its own much more poweful radars. If the data could be linked, they could be even flying a beriev A50 continuosly between Rostov and Sevastopol and monitoring any flying activity, even small ones and at low altitude.

    I would be curious to see how the new 57mm anti air gun would behave in this occasion.

    Anyway, Russia has the possibility to properly study the TB2 drones from Syria (and Lybia). It is highly possible that they have enough possibilities to deploy there some sort of electronic equipment to disturb the control signal and make the drone land or fall on the ground.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  JohninMK Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:30 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Logistics are against Ukraine.

    And, as we all know, logistics wins wars. When one side has recently war trained backup a short truck ride away or minutes of fly time and the other is all in at the front with backup a C-17 ride, plus hours on the road, away, there really is no contest.

    The strong likelihood of the 'grey line' being moved back to the oblast borders would be a strategic disaster as the ukr don't have the funds or resources anymore to create a new, longer frontline.

    The only way I can see it kicking off is if the ukr decision makers have large enough deposits into their Swiss bank accounts for them to not give a sh*t as to what happens on the front. So the obvious military logic may not apply here.

    Interestingly, Russia will soon have large numbers of 'peacekeepers' rotating through their new training area. Laughing

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