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    US-Iran standoff 2019-

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon May 27, 2019 7:26 pm

    I agree both with papa and tsavolion . The USA , most of all would like to allow the economic war to succeed  . This takes time . You have to wait for the frog to cook properly . Iranians also can not risk war yet , since most probably no minimum credible nuke force or many  ICBM launchers . They need these in the high tens or low hundreds .  As well as a couple of nuke powered subs .

    Also  Iranians do well to focus  any attack , primarily on yank forces . Without need to close flow of oil . This risks bringing in others , on yank side . But the oil will be cut , in any case , when war breaks out . There is no reason for yanks to lift sanctions . And sanctions will in medium to long term be highly damaging to Iran . Will Iranians be the good frog and boil to death ? Or will they jump out of the hot water ?

    The answer was given by Iranian general . " we have two new totally secret weapon to sink the carriers and planes and men ...."  In such a case  then a hot war will not happen . And sanctions will be lifted .


    However without nukes , with a JCPOA with Europe alone , the chance of war will increase . One may abstain from eating a cake . In the hope of eating the entire cake later , all by yourself . But watching others eat your cake , is unbearable ! Unless you are told to keep away at the point of a nuclear gun . That is why this JCPOA even if it works with Europe , and it can not . It will not stop the war with yanks . They like to wait , but not forever .

    https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/05/27/2020373/russia-lauds-iran-s-proposal-on-regional-non-aggression-pact
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon May 27, 2019 10:58 pm

    Media reports suggest that China provided military supplies to Iran via third parties including countries such as North Korea, bypassing the stringent international arms embargoes. ..
    Iran currently operates the Chinese J-7 fighter aircraft (similar to the Russian Mig 21) and is a potential buyer of the third-generation J-10 and the JF-17 multirole combat aircraft.

    https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/42646-beyond-jcpoa-china/

    Combat radius: 850 km (459 nmi, 528 mi) (air superiority, two AAMs and three drop tanks)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-7#Specifications_(J-7MG)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    And again the MiG

    If the Indians can effectively use them, so will the Iranians.
    They can also turn some of their older MiG-21s into anti-ship drones.
    Iranian Air Force had purchased 2 MiG-21PFM and 37 MiG-21F (23 like for Chinese version for J-7) and some 18 aircraft and 5 MiG-21U (FT-7 for Chinese Version like 4 purchased aircraft).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mikoyan-Gurevich_MiG-21_operators#Iran


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue May 28, 2019 4:55 am; edited 1 time in total
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue May 28, 2019 1:19 am

    Eh a strike on Iran honestly is something they want long has the damage isn't to severe they can use it has propaganda for years and years
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue May 28, 2019 7:09 am

    Yes, some ultra orthodox, incl. in Iran, but they r a small minority & have no weight.

    Hahaha... the ones with the most common sense often have the least weight in politics...

    Well, I'm 1 of them. Those Americans who r Zionists moved/move to Israel; the others r more centrist or neutral, but many r against Israeli expansionism & all that comes with it. There r also many who emigrate from Israel to USA & Canada, incl. my 2nd cousin & his family. It's a small world!

    The weird thing is that the people... jews and non jews who think Israel somehow has a right to exist, almost never agree that the Palestinians should have the same right... strange. But I guess when you are special other people don't understand...

    Iranians also can not risk war yet , since most probably no minimum credible nuke force or many ICBM launchers .

    If you listen to the US it is Iran that is the danger, but if you look at the actual situation realistically then Iran has little choice in the matter...

    Also Iranians do well to focus any attack , primarily on yank forces . Without need to close flow of oil . This risks bringing in others , on yank side . But the oil will be cut , in any case , when war breaks out . There is no reason for yanks to lift sanctions .

    Well it is a bit ironic because the best way to hurt the US is to increase the price of oil by blocking it... but actually all the American fracking companies will finally become profitable when they do... but high transport costs are not good for anyone...

    The Yanks will never lift sanctions.

    Will Iranians be the good frog and boil to death ? Or will they jump out of the hot water ?

    The answer was given by Iranian general . " we have two new totally secret weapon to sink the carriers and planes and men ...." In such a case then a hot war will not happen . And sanctions will be lifted .

    Just a super long range torpedo would be fine... give it a coastal launch station... build it like a mini sub... have it come to near the surface on its run to get Glonass coordinates and target information but make it run with the same propulsion as Shkval and make is super cavitating... and basically a UUV and perhaps a 1,000kg warhead that detonates under the target... make it pattern running with a MAD sensor to detect the enormous magnetic signature of a large aircraft carrier... you just need to make it manouver a bit and fast enough to be difficult to stop... and launch 50 of them at a time and at the same time launch subsonic cruise missile type anti ship missiles in massive numbers to overwhelm the defences... as well as ballistic missiles to come down in the general area of the enemy ships... instead of traditional warheads... have 100kg bombs with GLONASS guidance kits that target areas in the area of the AEGIS ships and carriers...

    However without nukes , with a JCPOA with Europe alone , the chance of war will increase .

    The problem is that Europe has no spine and is pulling out of most of its commitments to invest in Iran so Iran is effectively under sanctions from the US and the EU and in return it is not pursuing nuclear weapons capability... which is a pretty crap deal...

    One may abstain from eating a cake . In the hope of eating the entire cake later , all by yourself . But watching others eat your cake , is unbearable ! Unless you are told to keep away at the point of a nuclear gun . That is why this JCPOA even if it works with Europe , and it can not . It will not stop the war with yanks . They like to wait , but not forever .

    With no deal Iran was under sanction from the US and EU and all they got out of it was the ability to develop nuclear weapons if they wanted. With half a deal they are still under sanction from the US and most EU companies are pulling out of deals anyway to avoid sanctions from the US and Iran can't develop nuclear weapons technology.

    It is the US that wants its cake and to be able to eat it... they want to sanction Iran into oblivion AND to stop them developing nuclear weapons to defend themselves... fuck them.

    If the Indians can effectively use them, so will the Iranians.
    They can also turn some of their older MiG-21s into anti-ship drones.

    Actually the Russians converted a lot of old aircraft into drones and the thing is that when airframe life is not an issue the performance goes up dramatically.

    For instance the M-23, which is the drone version of the MiG-23 can fly much faster and pull much higher g than the manned version... I seem to remember the low level flight speed is something like 1,500km/h... which is pretty good.

    Eh a strike on Iran honestly is something they want long has the damage isn't to severe they can use it has propaganda for years and years

    That is why the US bleats on about Russian hackers and interference in elections and collusion and all that crap... there is nothing like a foreign threat to unify and justify all sorts of outrageous new laws and bills taking away rights...

    A US attack on Iran would not only unify Iran against the US, it would also likely build up anti US feeling in the region... ie Pakistan/Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria etc... and while the leadership in SA might love it it wont be popular with everyone there...
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Tue May 28, 2019 1:35 pm

    I like to focus the mind of Iranians and Venezuelans and North Korea to problem of cause and effect . I listened to BBC today , and they blamed all the problems in these countries to political leadership . So they lie and confuse cause and effect . The cause of all these sanctions are interests of a minority  group or class in the USA .  As long as we all wrongly target each other , each other's nations and even fighting forces as cause of problem . And target each other instead of the common enemy,  then problem not solved .

    We need to know who exactly they are , where they live  in USA ,  where their factory or farm or even palaces are. Then target them precisely with ICBM .  These billionaires . Also target them politically.  Identify them . Make friendships with their political enemy in USA .

    Focus your attack . Identify cause and effect . Remove cause . Remove cause .
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue May 28, 2019 3:09 pm

    nomadski wrote:I like to focus the mind of Iranians and Venezuelans and North Korea to problem of cause and effect . I listened to BBC today , and they blamed all the problems in these countries to political leadership . So they lie and confuse cause and effect . The cause of all these sanctions are interests of a minority  group or class in the USA .  As long as we all wrongly target each other , each other's nations and even fighting forces as cause of problem . And target each other instead of the common enemy,  then problem not solved .

    We need to know who exactly they are , where they live  in USA ,  where their factory or farm or even palaces are. Then target them precisely with ICBM .  These billionaires . Also target them politically.  Identify them . Make friendships with their political enemy in USA .

    Focus your attack . Identify cause and effect . Remove cause . Remove cause .

    The British Bullshit Corporation does nothing but lie. Cheesy narratives resting on worn stereotypes and tropes is what this
    fake news outfit peddles 24/7. It is the British version of the Crap News Network that is nothing more than a propaganda
    bullhorn.

    Too bad so many sheeple think that garbage spewing from these lie factories is credible. But then most sheeple can't think for
    themselves anyway. This is why peace never lasts. Vast hordes of morons can always be agitated into a genocidal frenzy by
    two bit propaganda.

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue May 28, 2019 7:54 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    The weird thing is that the people... jews and non jews who think Israel somehow has a right to exist, almost never agree that the Palestinians should have the same right... strange. But I guess when you are special other people don't understand...
    The Palestinians & other Arabs with Christians & Muslims of various sects among them were not united, unlike the Zionists who succeeded in setting up a state at their expense. After all, why the European Jews can't repeat the Western European mistakes of colonization? The Crusaders too used the Bible, or at least the New Testament portion, to justify their invasion & occupation of Palestine. In that context, Jews r not special at all.
    Trump says he wants a new, better deal. But Iran won't take it with more strings attached. Iraq allowed intrusive UN inspections but still got invaded. Libya abandoned its nuclear program & is now fragmented; its looted weapons r now killing people in N. Africa & the ME.
    China should just send some "volunteers" (like she did to NK), via Pakistan to, & warships off Iran & the problem will be solved. Russia could take care of Iran's IAD, like in Syria. Only then the wolves will be kept out.
    If Trump really only wants ‘No Iranian Nukes,’ then he should just rejoin the Nuclear Deal
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/05/really-iranian-nuclear.html

    Trump Says Not Seeking 'Regime Change' in Iran- but others do!
    Trump: Iran Deal Still Possible as Sanctions Sting
    Iraqi Leaders: We Won't Be Dragged Into US-Iran Proxy War

    https://www.antiwar.com/
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Tue May 28, 2019 8:52 pm

    @ GarryB

    I  think that US sanctions can be lifted . Once they know , they can not defeat Iran militarily . That Iran has nukes   and that they benefit by doing trade with Iran . That they  have to share the cake with others . Based on rules .  Iran is a large country , with big market . But I hope this time , the Iranian leadership does not make mistake of dependence of critical infrastructure on yank goods or tech . Look what happened to Huwavei ! Any trade  with yank  should be in non critical goods . Agricultural or medical with secondary sources available .

    The doors should be kept open for those seeking peace . And closed for those seeking war . The yanks had in the end open up to China . Even if they contemplated nuking them , when they developed about ten nuke warheads . This does not mean ,  we should  not punish and wage war on those warmongers . The hawks . Find where their chicken ranch is . And take it out , when they least expect it . A kind of two track policy . Our own carrot and stick .
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue May 28, 2019 9:50 pm

    Find where their chicken ranch is . And take it out , when they least expect it.
    How? That would be an act of war. Besides, there r many Russians with $, properties & families abroad that could be retaliated against.
    India too could step in to help Iran defend itself, at least politically. In fact, she is the closest nuclear power to it after Pakistan. There r many ethnic Iranians (Parsis) and Iranis in India: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parsis
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irani_(India)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parsis#Military



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue May 28, 2019 11:37 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Wed May 29, 2019 3:57 am

    No, we could beat Iran conventionally the problem is the cost of doing so would be immense far far more then the public is willing to accept. Occupying would also be insanely bloody none stop so yes we can WIN the problem is the price of winning and what comes after.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed May 29, 2019 5:14 am

    Smaller Afghanistan is slipping out of US & its installed Kabul regime control after 18 years of occupation & counterinsurgency. Iran has more territory & longer borders, incl. in the mountains & on the coasts. Foreign fighters & mercenaries would volunteer to come & fight the Americans from Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Caucasus, & elsewhere. The only campaign they can hope of conducting is Libya-style. But no1 can guarantee that the result would be worth it.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed May 29, 2019 7:09 am; edited 1 time in total
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Wed May 29, 2019 6:47 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:No, we could beat Iran conventionally the problem is the cost of doing so would be immense far far more then the public is willing to accept. Occupying would also be insanely bloody none stop so yes we can WIN the problem is the price of winning and what comes after.

    Mei Xing Bing Fa Yi. Da Bu Liao Liang Bai Ju Shang.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed May 29, 2019 7:08 am

    Pl translate or post it in Chinese characters.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed May 29, 2019 7:32 am

    Trump says he wants a new, better deal.

    Yeah, this isn't about nukes... the Israelis realise the power of having a satellite or two providing information in the region and they are scared to death that Iran might get a few satellites of its own up there and working... not to mention improving ballistic missile technology is making them scared... if Iran can get BMs that can reach Israel that manouver like Iskander missiles and are as accurate as Iskander missiles then Israel is in deep shit.

    Plus of course all of Americas fucking around in the region has broken Afghanistan again and Iraq and Syria and in these places Iran is becoming relevant... if only to try to stabilise its own neighbourhood... but America doesn't like other countries asserting their authority or stability in places they destroy... ask Russia about the Ukraine... America broken it but it is all Russias fault for trying to propose peace and stability.

    China should just send some "volunteers" (like she did to NK), via Pakistan to, & warships off Iran & the problem will be solved. Russia could take care of Iran's IAD, like in Syria. Only then the wolves will be kept out.

    Well previously China made a lot of money in the US and the west in general, so it was not inclined to shit where it ate... but now with all these US sanctions against China I think there will come a time when they might do something like this and it will be good for China and for the US... good for China to stand up, and good for the US to pull its head in and stop acting like a villain.

    Iraqi Leaders: We Won't Be Dragged Into US-Iran Proxy War

    Yeah... the word dragged suggests you wont get a choice... if you have US forces stationed in Iraq then how can you not be involved if the US starts openly attacking Iran...

    I think that US sanctions can be lifted . Once they know , they can not defeat Iran militarily . That Iran has nukes and that they benefit by doing trade with Iran .

    They have two tools to crush countries... military and economic... sanctions are the economic... there is no Trump Tower in Iran... he doesn't care about US trade with Iran... if an American business man came up to him and said stop with the sanctions you are hurting my business he will more than likely tell you to find another country to trade with and that you are a traitor to America for trying to trade with Iran.

    Those sanctions against Iran will end when the sanctions against Cuba and North Korea end.... they wont.

    That they have to share the cake with others . Based on rules . Iran is a large country , with big market .

    The whole world is a cake and Iran is a tiny tiny piece... they don't need it.

    But I hope this time , the Iranian leadership does not make mistake of dependence of critical infrastructure on yank goods or tech . Look what happened to Huwavei ! Any trade with yank should be in non critical goods . Agricultural or medical with secondary sources available .

    Yeah, history has shown Iranian leadership make stupid decisions... like buying Boeing and Airbus... thinking that those companies will step up to bat to help Iran when it comes time to impose sanctions... but they never do... They create ties in the hope it will prevent the US either pulling them or cutting them because they might see them as valuable... but they don't and they do cut them.

    When Iranian money is unfrozen you can bet your ass there are very specific rules and limits as to what they can spend that money on if they want to get their hands on it...

    The doors should be kept open for those seeking peace . And closed for those seeking war . The yanks had in the end open up to China . Even if they contemplated nuking them , when they developed about ten nuke warheads . This does not mean , we should not punish and wage war on those warmongers . The hawks . Find where their chicken ranch is . And take it out , when they least expect it . A kind of two track policy . Our own carrot and stick .

    You need to target specific people, and it will look exactly like terrorism, because you will be murdering people and innocent people could get in the way... but it is certainly nothing they haven't already done to you and others. If you get caught you are a terrorist... but they will be patriots if they are caught... and no one is trying to catch them... there were no repercussions regarding Libya or Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan etc etc Yemen, Somalia etc etc.

    How? That would be an act of war. Besides, there r many Russians with $, properties & families abroad that could be retaliated against.

    Hahahahahaha... first of all Nomadski is Iranian I think, so most of US sanctions currently being applied to Iran, China, and Russia could be easily considered acts of war anyway. And second, Butina, that pilot kidnapped from africa, several Russian diplomatic compounds in the US seized... hasn't the US already started?

    Plus we wont even look in to the number if Iranian scientists who have disappeared or simply been murdered by Israeli special forces over the years...

    But no1 can guarantee that the result would be worth it.

    Sadly that has never stopped you censored before...

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed May 29, 2019 8:08 am

    Sadly that has never stopped you before...
    I'm not advocating nor approve any past & future war plans. My income isn't taxable, so the bankers don't get any $ from me for the interest they charge the US gov. on loans to pay the MIC for those wars. Otherwise, I wouldn't be on this forum.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed May 29, 2019 8:40 pm

    US goes to the economic strangulation of Iran
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2637862.html
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Wed May 29, 2019 9:41 pm

    @GarryB

    It is all about the nukes . A conventional war with USA ,  will bring great damage to Iran . Iran can retaliate . But it will suffer much greater damage than it inflicts . And mainland  USA  will be untouched . The yanks will repair any damage quickly . Like in Kuwait . Iran will not be able to repair . Even if the flow of oil is disrupted for a few weeks ,  this may be bearable.  Civilian casualties in Iran , are not important . They will not report them .  Does the world care  about genocide in Yemen ?  Imposed by UN .

    The only way to put pressure on the yanks by Iran , are nukes.  In this case Iran can openly support national groups . Disrupt oil  to USA . Disrupt all US activity in ME . No US base will be safe . No US company or personnel can operate . The loss to USA will be huge . Not just in Iran . But Afghanistan , R. Of Azerbaijan , Iraq and Syria , Lebanon  , not to mention all of Persian Gulf states . The yanks will have to choose between nuclear annihiliation  or loss of the entire middle east region or retreat . The logical choice is obvious .

    The targeting of yank soil is possible . And they can do it . Is hitting an arms manufacturing plant illegal in war ?  But the yanks are not ready for this shock . Perfectly legal in war . Terrifying  yes ! And all this depends on Iran declaring itself a nuke armed state . They need about fifty warheads . My guess . To allow ten to get through  . Money well spent to stop the war . They must stop playing around with stock piling  of  uranium and useless warnings . And ambiguity . And vague warnings of secret weapons .  

    For nuclear deterrence to work . They must be shown . So that the public in USA , and politicians understand and  have regular nightmare  about them . That is what is needed . I say this , not because I am Iranian . All nations that need nukes , should get them . For cleaner power generation . And for keeping the peace . Two things that our planet needs now .
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu May 30, 2019 12:08 am

    All that takes time & $. Will they have ICBMs to deliver nukes to USA like NK does? If they declare themselves a nuke state but have none, they US will attack preemptively to "disarm Iran".
    Btw NK, unlike Iran, has no oil & is on the margins of the world economy- it wasn't worth the trouble starting a war there before they got ICBMs.
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    Post  GarryB Thu May 30, 2019 12:36 am

    I'm not advocating nor approve any past & future war plans. My income isn't taxable, so the bankers don't get any $ from me for the interest they charge the US gov. on loans to pay the MIC for those wars. Otherwise, I wouldn't be on this forum.

    Sorry, I mean you as in American government, not you personally.

    Personally I wish you had a lot more control over your government than you currently do, you sound quite sensible most of the time... Smile

    It is all about the nukes . A conventional war with USA , will bring great damage to Iran . Iran can retaliate . But it will suffer much greater damage than it inflicts . And mainland USA will be untouched . The yanks will repair any damage quickly . Like in Kuwait . Iran will not be able to repair . Even if the flow of oil is disrupted for a few weeks , this may be bearable. Civilian casualties in Iran , are not important . They will not report them . Does the world care about genocide in Yemen ? Imposed by UN .

    It can't be about nukes, because Iran doesn't have any... the US will say it is about nukes but of course it has never been about nukes.

    Iran needs to be smart and sneaky... they have cruise missile technology... use it... develop shipping crates that can launch half a dozen cruise missiles while sitting in water in open ocean... put these shipping crates on a cargo ship and send it off to sea... sail it up the pacific and drop a few crates along the way... the automation will be the trickiest bit... if the US attacks Iran send a signal for those cruise missiles to launch and attack targets in the US... not Florida because that is where Tsavo is... Land missiles in silicon valley and Hollywood... they wont be nukes, but even a couple of hundred kgs of HE landing on key features... see if you can bring down a major bridge or something of cultural value to all Americans... especially white rich americans...

    In the Middle East target US bases with ballistic missiles... if attacking carriers or US navy ships go all out... ballistic missiles and anti ship missiles shore launched torpedoes... all at once... remember this is not a navy used to being fired at or attacked... Make attacks with unmanned platforms and make sure everywhere the attack was launched from everyone leaves and does not go back... make them fire and leave positions... like a sniper...

    But your best option is to close the gulf... use a huge number of mines but also weapons to take out any small ships or helos trying to clear the mines...

    The fact is that they are bastards and they think if they kill more of you than they lose that they win... didn't work in Korea or Vietnam... but notice they don't bother Vietnam any more... in fact they want to trade with them...

    Fight smart but unfortunately you are in no position to fight fair or they will cheat and you will lose.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu May 30, 2019 1:13 am

    ..not Florida because that is where Tsavo is...
    I'm in Arizona, like my greeting says- & we don't even have an ocean shore. Here, I get to see free airshows of AF/N fighters practicing over a nearby range.
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    Post  crod Thu May 30, 2019 8:31 am

    Jerusalem to hold trilateral security talks with US and Russia according to the Times of Israel today. To tell Russia Iran is next perhaps???
    On a side note and again concerning israel, hopefully that cunt bibi gets knocked in the election re-run.
    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu May 30, 2019 8:48 am

    Even if Bibi does lose, he will be replaced by someone with the same exact foreign policy views. It will change nothing.
    crod
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    Post  crod Thu May 30, 2019 10:18 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Even if Bibi does lose, he will be replaced by someone with the same exact foreign policy views. It will change nothing.

    Perhaps, perhaps not as bad, israel has political options that can take a more moderate approach but at the very least we won’t have to look at the cunts smug face and that’s a win for sure.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Thu May 30, 2019 4:57 pm

    crod wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Even if Bibi does lose, he will be replaced by someone with the same exact foreign policy views. It will change nothing.

    Perhaps, perhaps not as bad, israel has political options that can take a more moderate approach but at the very least we won’t have to look at the cunts smug face and that’s a win for sure.
    50:50 any replacement could be more hardline. More on this at

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t7834-israel-and-its-elections#257551
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu May 30, 2019 6:14 pm

    crod wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Even if Bibi does lose, he will be replaced by someone with the same exact foreign policy views. It will change nothing.

    Perhaps, perhaps not as bad, israel has political options that can take a more moderate approach but at the very least we won’t have to look at the cunts smug face and that’s a win for sure.

    If you consider replacing one smug face with another a win, I would say you should aim higher.

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