Syrian War: News #19

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

There must be a pretty good chance that you are going to be redeployed. If not why have Mattis and Mcgurk gone early? Also all the talk about 7000 coming out of Afghanistan as well. Still, the damage to relationships is now done.

I agree with your comments about SF staying, if only as a strike force based in Iraq. You appear to be in a better place than us to forecast what will happen, as far as I can see the media is saying it starts in 30 days and will be over in 90 with air cover stopping at that latter date.

If it happens it will mean that the Coalition is also gone. Wonder how the French will operate without US air cover?

Gonna be an interesting couple of months.

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

There must be a pretty good chance that you are going to be redeployed. If not why have Mattis and Mcgurk gone early? Also all the talk about 7000 coming out of Afghanistan as well. Still, the damage to relationships is now done.

I agree with your comments about SF staying, if only as a strike force based in Iraq. You appear to be in a better place than us to forecast what will happen, as far as I can see the media is saying it starts in 30 days and will be over in 90 with air cover stopping at that latter date.

If it happens it will mean that the Coalition is also gone. Wonder how the French will operate without US air cover?

Gonna be an interesting couple of months.

The French cannot operate as we do. Without our Air support, The kurds are pretty screwed.

They may try and stay but them and the brits would pull out the second things get hot.

I am not going anywhere for a while it seems, I worked with Mattis before. Glad he is gone, the guy lives in the old world.

Mcgurk is an incompetent fool who was only a mouthpiece.

Afghan no way that's happening, in the end, Trump cannot pull troops out on his own anymore.

I have not heard or seen any official orders which if there was truth to this. Should have been signed by now, You could get the paperwork to all the departments, deploy heavy transports, take inventory of everything. Get setup how withdrawal will be run, which plane takes what etc.

If you intend to send them to another country, that's advance notice.

So where are the paper orders and notifications?. Even if Trump says it, that stuff still needs to be dotted and signed.

There is one WAY and IF Trump is serious about this he can get around all of that crap.

Send them into Iraq, there were routes prepared long in advance if we had to suddenly ditch Syria and even areas pre-chosen to house those troops.

Since we are formally deployed in Iraq, he doesn't need to deal with paper orders and he can transfer them there has additional forces.

He will bring some home if that's true to save face.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

There must be a pretty good chance that you are going to be redeployed. If not why have Mattis and Mcgurk gone early? Also all the talk about 7000 coming out of Afghanistan as well. Still, the damage to relationships is now done.

I agree with your comments about SF staying, if only as a strike force based in Iraq. You appear to be in a better place than us to forecast what will happen, as far as I can see the media is saying it starts in 30 days and will be over in 90 with air cover stopping at that latter date.

If it happens it will mean that the Coalition is also gone. Wonder how the French will operate without US air cover?

Gonna be an interesting couple of months.

I have not heard or seen any official orders which if there was truth to this. Should have been signed by now, You could get the paperwork to all the departments, deploy heavy transports, take inventory of everything. Get setup how withdrawal will be run, which plane takes what etc.

You haven't seen any orders? Can't be real then  

I remember when you were claiming to be part of the American SF helping the SDF; your claims got contradicted and called out and you disappeared

The 30-90 day withdrawal window looks to be possible.

Unclassified statement of CENTCOM: “At this time, we continue to work by, with and through our partners in the region.” Also #US State Department officials say that they will support Kurdish militias for next 2 months. But the ones with No ties to PKK terror group

This is an interesting read. Seems reasonable even if it is from DEBKAfile:

“Following the backlash from President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from NE Syria, senior administration officials Friday night, Dec. 21 offered Mid East leaders clarifications for allaying their concerns. DEBKAfile’s sources reveal those messages’ high points:

US troops will leave eastern and northern Syria, but America is not deserting this part of the country, said the officials, without revealing the nature of its continuing presence.

1)The Trump administration has not abandoned the Kurds or “stabbed them in the back” as widely reported, “and the Kurds know this,” it was authoritatively said. And, indeed, despite their loud cries of dismay, not a single Syrian Kurdish militiaman has deserted the lines they hold against ISIS in eastern Syria.

2)Regarding President Tayyip Erdogan declaration that the Turkish army was about to march on East Euphrates and reach the Kurdish capital of Qamishli, amid fears of a massacre, the US officials advised distinguishing between talk and deeds. They referred to a phone conversation between Presidents Trump and Erdogan on Dec. 14, in which the latter promised his army would not cross the Euphrates. In a speech welcoming the US pullout from Syria on Friday, Erdogan allowed that Turkey would “wait a little longer before launching the operation” and counted on US “logistic support.”

3)Trump said subsequently that the troop pullout would be phased out within 40-60 days. According to the US officials, a more realistic timeline would be 4 to 6 months. “During that time, Syria is bound to see many developments that may require Washington to revise its plans.”

4)The US and Iraq are in advanced negotiations for the deployment to
the Iraqi-Syria border of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) – the “Golden Division” – which drove ISIS out of Mosul. It will stand in the path of Iranian and Iraqi Shiite militias crossings into Syria.

6)Part of the ISOF’s deployment will include the western Iraqi province of Anbar. In this regard, the US officials referred to a disclosure by Mohammad al-Dilemi, one of the chiefs of Anbar’s Arab tribes. On Dec. 12, he said that the US army was building a new base on the line dividing Anbar from the next-door province of Nineveh. It would position US troops 30km north of the Euphrates River and near the Syrian border. This new base will provide the Iraqi division with American backup.

7)The officials from Washington refused to confirm or deny that the Russians were involved in the forthcoming US plans for Syria; nor would they refer to a possible US-Turkish-Russian deal on the subject. They did take note of the strides taken in recent weeks toward repairing Russian-Israeli relations. The US officials pointed out that the transfer of a Russian S-300 air defense missile battalion to Deir ez-Zour in eastern Syria brought the Israeli Golan and Galilee Panhandle within their range, but not the Israel Air Force bases in northern and central Israel.”

More clarification and seems to confirm above reports:
Sec Pompeo’s interview posted on @State covering the Syria withdrawal and NK.
https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/12/288249.htm

You'll enjoy this Seig

Further news from Heshmet Alavi’s twitter feed. (much more on situation in Iran and recent US gov actionable sanctions).
@HeshmatAlavi

#BREAKING 1) France will replace the U.S. in northern Syria The French Foreign Ministry confirms that following talks with U.S. officials, its forces will replace U.S. forces in northern Syria to help maintain security in the region. yenisafak.com/en/world/franc… pic.twitter.com/VLIAUr40wv

#BREAKING 2) In the next three months, with each group of U.S. forces leaving Syria, a French unit will enter the northern Syrian regions, sources say. France has invited Syrian Democratic Forces’ representatives for talks with senior officials in Paris.

#BREAKING 3) Kurdish officials Riyadh Derar & Elham Ahmed have gone to Elysee Palace for talks. This decision will any disrupt the plans of Bashar Assad to take over oil fields in this area & Turkey’s plans to launch cross-border operations into northern Syria. More to follow.

#BREAKING 4) 2,000 U.S. military forces exiting #Syria will be stationing inside Iraq, in a base located 60 kilometers from #Iran’s border, according to an Iraqi Kurd source. (File Photo) pic.twitter.com/0xLfoS3eUS

flamming_python wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

There must be a pretty good chance that you are going to be redeployed. If not why have Mattis and Mcgurk gone early? Also all the talk about 7000 coming out of Afghanistan as well. Still, the damage to relationships is now done.

I agree with your comments about SF staying, if only as a strike force based in Iraq. You appear to be in a better place than us to forecast what will happen, as far as I can see the media is saying it starts in 30 days and will be over in 90 with air cover stopping at that latter date.

If it happens it will mean that the Coalition is also gone. Wonder how the French will operate without US air cover?

Gonna be an interesting couple of months.

I have not heard or seen any official orders which if there was truth to this. Should have been signed by now, You could get the paperwork to all the departments, deploy heavy transports, take inventory of everything. Get setup how withdrawal will be run, which plane takes what etc.

You haven't seen any orders? Can't be real then  

I remember when you were claiming to be part of the American SF helping the SDF; your claims got contradicted and called out and you disappeared

I was busy at the time? I don't live on this website. I mean if your willing to meet my current pay per hour, then sure you got it pal!.

Also saying I haven't seen or heard anything official is all.

Could it be true sure, I said that before merely stated I haven't seen anything personally.

JohninMK wrote:The 30-90 day withdrawal window looks to be possible.

Unclassified statement of CENTCOM: “At this time, we continue to work by, with and through our partners in the region.” Also #US State Department officials say that they will support Kurdish militias for next 2 months. But the ones with No ties to PKK terror group

This is an interesting read. Seems reasonable even if it is from DEBKAfile:

“Following the backlash from President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from NE Syria, senior administration officials Friday night, Dec. 21 offered Mid East leaders clarifications for allaying their concerns. DEBKAfile’s sources reveal those messages’ high points:

US troops will leave eastern and northern Syria, but America is not deserting this part of the country, said the officials, without revealing the nature of its continuing presence.

1)The Trump administration has not abandoned the Kurds or “stabbed them in the back” as widely reported, “and the Kurds know this,” it was authoritatively said. And, indeed, despite their loud cries of dismay, not a single Syrian Kurdish militiaman has deserted the lines they hold against ISIS in eastern Syria.

2)Regarding President Tayyip Erdogan declaration that the Turkish army was about to march on East Euphrates and reach the Kurdish capital of Qamishli, amid fears of a massacre, the US officials advised distinguishing between talk and deeds. They referred to a phone conversation between Presidents Trump and Erdogan on Dec. 14, in which the latter promised his army would not cross the Euphrates. In a speech welcoming the US pullout from Syria on Friday, Erdogan allowed that Turkey would “wait a little longer before launching the operation” and counted on US “logistic support.”

3)Trump said subsequently that the troop pullout would be phased out within 40-60 days. According to the US officials, a more realistic timeline would be 4 to 6 months. “During that time, Syria is bound to see many developments that may require Washington to revise its plans.”

4)The US and Iraq are in advanced negotiations for the deployment to
the Iraqi-Syria border of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) – the “Golden Division” – which drove ISIS out of Mosul. It will stand in the path of Iranian and Iraqi Shiite militias crossings into Syria.

6)Part of the ISOF’s deployment will include the western Iraqi province of Anbar. In this regard, the US officials referred to a disclosure by Mohammad al-Dilemi, one of the chiefs of Anbar’s Arab tribes. On Dec. 12, he said that the US army was building a new base on the line dividing Anbar from the next-door province of Nineveh. It would position US troops 30km north of the Euphrates River and near the Syrian border. This new base will provide the Iraqi division with American backup.

7)The officials from Washington refused to confirm or deny that the Russians were involved in the forthcoming US plans for Syria; nor would they refer to a possible US-Turkish-Russian deal on the subject. They did take note of the strides taken in recent weeks toward repairing Russian-Israeli relations. The US officials pointed out that the transfer of a Russian S-300 air defense missile battalion to Deir ez-Zour in eastern Syria brought the Israeli Golan and Galilee Panhandle within their range, but not the Israel Air Force bases in northern and central Israel.”

More clarification and seems to confirm above reports:
Sec Pompeo’s interview posted on @State covering the Syria withdrawal and NK.
https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/12/288249.htm

Ha they are doing exactly what I thought they would.

But yes that is about what I expected if Trump was pulling guys out, a partial pull out of some forces, keeping unknown forces in there.

Trump back peddling some for the turks to make Ero happy.

They are even using the backup routes to set up a base where if we where forced out of syria would have been built.

Welp it's easy to predict when you been involved in it to be fair. That's also why I haven't seen any paper orders, he is transfering them to Iraq which doesn't require it.

If you want PM me some questions John feel free.

Seig, I think you might be getting that paperwork after all:

Order to withdraw US forces from Syria signed

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/23/politics/syria-withdrawal-pentagon-signed-order/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Interesting discussions about Ukraine planning a new war ,and Israel illegal war on Syria.

PapaDragon wrote:
Seig, I think you might be getting that paperwork after all:

Order to withdraw US forces from Syria signed

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/23/politics/syria-withdrawal-pentagon-signed-order/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Ah if they just signed it today I wouldn't have heard about the order until tomorrow at the earliest.

JohninMK wrote:You'll enjoy this Seig

Further news from Heshmet Alavi’s twitter feed. (much more on situation in Iran and recent US gov actionable sanctions).
@HeshmatAlavi

#BREAKING 1) France will replace the U.S. in northern Syria The French Foreign Ministry confirms that following talks with U.S. officials, its forces will replace U.S. forces in northern Syria to help maintain security in the region. yenisafak.com/en/world/franc… pic.twitter.com/VLIAUr40wv

#BREAKING 2) In the next three months, with each group of U.S. forces leaving Syria, a French unit will enter the northern Syrian regions, sources say. France has invited Syrian Democratic Forces’ representatives for talks with senior officials in Paris.

#BREAKING 3) Kurdish officials Riyadh Derar & Elham Ahmed have gone to Elysee Palace for talks. This decision will any disrupt the plans of Bashar Assad to take over oil fields in this area & Turkey’s plans to launch cross-border operations into northern Syria. More to follow.

#BREAKING 4) 2,000 U.S. military forces exiting #Syria will be stationing inside Iraq, in a base located 60 kilometers from #Iran’s border, according to an Iraqi Kurd source. (File Photo) pic.twitter.com/0xLfoS3eUS

Not verified. Looks like a lie actually. Neither french medias nor twitter talks about that.

French don't have the capacity to replace US. Not with tens of special forces, 4 or 5 rafales and 4 Cesar gun.

Trump gave also green light for turks op in syria against kurds so french will be alone to stop them.

SR
@Syrian_SR
·
4h
#Turkey ordered it’s backed militias in Idlib to attack the #SAA positions in south #Idlib in attempt to slow down SAA deployments to Manbij and the east

A (not confirmed tip) within 48 hours #Manbij and its CS will be handed over to the SAA



And lot of pictures of turkish geting their force ready at the border with desert cammo on twitter.

TSK 203mm M110A2 heavy howitzers and Kirpi MRAPs are on the way to border with #Syria.

https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/1077157293492502529

60 TSK ACV-15 armoured personnel carriers with desert camouflage are waiting to be transferred to the border with #Syria this night.

https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/1077225772904079360

Very large units of the Turkish Army are moving into positions on their side of the border. Everyday brings news and film of more.

This is very interesting, either they will strike south soon (running the risk of hitting the US before the US moves out?) or they will stay where they are. Whichever it is they are scaring the shit out of the SDF Kurds.

Maybe the latter is the plan. Unlike the US the Russians have told the Turks to stay out but they still need to force the Kurds into agreement with the Syrian Government. This happened this morning

All that Turkish gear heading towards the border seems to be having a positive affect the other side. Video at link

Mare
???? #RiseUp4Afrin
‏ @nighttides

Handover of several W #Manbij villages by MMC to Syrian border guard protection in the presence of Russian forces also included dancing

https://twitter.com/nighttides/status/839771097717432320

If this is the plan and it works the Turks will get what they really want, no PKK Kurdish access to their southern border policed with Russian help. So far so good. Plus the US can move out safely, under the protection of the Syrian/Russian forces. Love that idea.


EDIT

Need to point this out re that celebration


The'Nimr'Tiger
‏ @Souria4Syrians
2h2 hours ago

Regarding news that SDF handed Arima area to Syrian Gov; in 2017 Syria deployed Army and Border Guards in west Manbij to create a buffer zone between YPG and TFSA, SAA has presence there especially in Arima which became a center for that deployment since.


But they could well be expanding their area



Qalaat Al Mudiq
‏ @QalaatAlMudiq
31m31 minutes ago

#Syria: Assad forces reinforced their positions in W. #Manbij CS after recent Turkish & National Army deployments. Regime firstly entered this area in March 2017 (2nd pic) but this time this is #SAA (not #LDF). Reports #Russia|ns are back in #Arima. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.466852&lon=37.701645&z=12&m=w …

Erdogan probably agreed all kinds of side deals with Trump, like laying off MbS as well.

Sudan/Egypt are fronting a Saudi/UAE diplomatic effort to get Syria back into the Arab 'fold'. The UAE are renovating their embassy in Damascus with all speed.

What is unfolding is probably not what many in the West are predicting, in that the Arabs are going to help all Syria not just the east of the Euphrates. Erdogan won't want more war, he needs to get his country back on an even keel exploiting its export markets, both in the east and west.

Looks like there is the chance of what the US MIC fears most happening, peace breaking out and the elimination of lots of terrorists.

Looks like russians won't stop them. Wonder what's going on in backstage and what agreements were reached.

Babak Taghvaee
Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
#BREAKING: According to my #Russian Military Sources, #Russian Air Force will not provide any air support for #Syrian Arab Army & #Assad forces who are helping #YPG/#SDF in #Manbij! Seems #Russia follows the American path as well to keep war criminal #Erdogan as its ally!

Edit: well seems that this guy's credibility is very low.

SR
@Syrian_SR
No fly zone issued by #SAA over north/north east #Syria starting mid night.

a major new attack by ISRAEL on Syria.. on christmas day..


Israel engages air defenses to intercept anti-aircraft missile from Syria – IDF


https://www.rt.com/news/447395-israel-air-defense-syria/


Mixed reports.. RT reports talk about Israel attacks on Syria with their airforce from Lebanon airspace..
HalRAdio shows talk about Surface to surface attack on Syria.. from farther distances.
and mixed with kamikazi drones.. with up to 55 missiles fired.. in two waves..


with most missiles intercepted...  but apparently a few of them hit Syria.
and apparently Syria is still using their S-200s..

from SANA news..

Syrian SANA Agency later reported that Israeli Air Force launched missile attack on Damascus surroundings from Lebanese airspace and that most of the missiles were downed. The attack left three servicemen wounded and caused damage to an ammunition depot, the agency said.

This is what i have been saying many times.. You can have the best air defenses in the world.. S-300,S-500 ,S-700s but if they are not used , the way they are supposed to be used.. for political reasons , and the enemy allowed to fly close to Syria.. then they can continue bombing Syria, trying and trying.. is hit an run tactics..
and they use valleys and mountains in lebanon to cover from Syrian air defenses.. and the only way to get
low flying planes ,covering behind valleys is with another combat plane. Airforce is supposed to backup land base air defenses..  the strategy of only defending..and not retaliating doesn't work.. to stop enemy its aggression.
The way S-300 will really shine is deployed not only in Syria but in Lebanon too.. so that Israel airforce can't hide behind geography and do hit and run attacks... also the S-300s will have to take down any Israel planes that gets withing 250km of Damascus.. create a no israel fly zone.. thats the only way to really Secure the airspace of
Syria.. completely.. keeping the enemy far away of its missiles range.

apparently Israel took advantage Also of Russia military and Syrian army being busy ,distracted with the
turkey invasion.. there have been major mobilization of Russia military and Syrian army into zones closer to Turkey positions..  it looks like Syria and Russia are in a race to take some territory in the north before Turkey get it all..


from hal radio show... (sometimes their reports are wrong.)
this is what they are reporting about the end results of the raids.

BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Israel launched over 55 munitions today
Surface to surface missiles (short range-medium range)
Suicide drones
Small diameter bombs
Cruise missiles


Launched in 4 waves in 35 mins

And only managed to hit 7 times in 2 different locations in Syria.

The attack, for all intents and purposes, was a dismal failure.

from SANA news..
Syrian SANA Agency later reported that Israeli Air Force launched missile attack on Damascus surroundings from Lebanese airspace and that most of the missiles were downed. The attack left three servicemen wounded and caused damage to an ammunition depot, the agency said.

So the ammunition depot was damaged but not destroyed?
If i was going guess ,the planes were a distraction and the most important attacks came
from suicide drones.. and perhaps glide bombs had to be used too..

So the latest attack ,the Israelis launched missiles at Syria from Lebanon with 6 x F16s ,when 2 civilians planes
were landing in the zone.. they Israelis used 2 civilians planes as potential shield to prevent an attack on their
planes. The Syrian military could not use Electronic jamming according to Russia and neither deploy surface to air  defenses to shutdown the Israeli planes.. (and maybe neither S-300s) for the presence of civilian planes..  and had to limit their activities to purely defensive and likely with short air defenses and only engage the missiles ,when they were near of their bases,when the missiles were close to their positions. ..

a total of 16 US-made laser-guided GBU-39 bombs, were used and from 16 attacks,only 2 hit their intended targets.
So definitively this is a major improvement of Syrian air defenses.. 6x planes attacks using the usual fire and run away tactics . So this shows an efficiency of Israel airforce latest attack of about ~13% in a Surprise attack
when they used 2 civilian airliners as a potential shield for their planes ,for blocking Syrian military for doing all the things they could have deployed. .

This is definitively a major failure of Israel ,and they by now will understand that they gains ,they could achieve
are so little and the risk too high.. will make them upset for sure of the failure of the military operation. with a small symbolic victory in terms of not getting their planes shut down.



https://www.rt.com/news/447423-israel-strike-syria-civilian-planes/

It was funny to see the Jerusalem post celebrating the "failure of S-300s" that many sources says were not
used.. and other jews claiming. it was Israel invisible F-35 planes the reason of the success. But maybe not everyone of them will feel so proud ,if they were told ,their airforce is using civilian planes as a shield for their attacks. or maybe they still will do.. with the lack of "morals" and respect for human life they have..

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
4m
#UPDATE: Source telling me heavy fighter activity also over Haifa. IAF warplanes popping flares over Lebanon, reasons unclear, Netanyahu off to Brazil tomorrow, I don’t really expect Israel to strike when he’s going away...?