Syrian War: News #19

Don't like much the music ,but the video is interesting..
Russian special forces in Syria.. 2017.

nero wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Assad at this point has slightly more manpower than the rebels [...] Assad lost over six tanks today alone thanks to Kornets. [...] If this rate of attrition keeps up for the SAA, they will not be able to liberate Idlib.

That's nonsensical and shows exactly how much you've been following the conflict.

The current 'offensives' aren't real offensives to start with. It's more akin to small skirmishes than an actual attack. Otherwise they would've moved in their 4th Armored division, 1st Armored division (which was rebuilt by Russia) and 3rd Armored division. Then launch offensives from several points.

The material losses are negligible. The reserve stock on tanks and armored vehicles that Syria has is huge. Most of the material is sitting in military bases around Damascus and the rest of Syria and is currently not being used. In addition to that, they haven't deployed the new T-90A tanks that they've got, which shows exactly how much they value these offensives.

The most important factor, though I doubt it was initially planned by the Syrians, is that HTS and other rebel groups have sent their 'elite' units to retake villages/towns lost in the province. Several of these attacks resulted in large groups of these fighters getting killed by artillery and aircraft. Simply counting last few rebel counter-offensives results in upwards of 500 dead. Hell knows how many more wounded, as they even asked locals to donate blood, which they had stocked up on.

There is a lot of politics currently in-play on the situation regarding Idlib. Because if the rebels were to flee after losing, their only destination would be Turkey and it is doubtful that they want this to happen. There's been multiple ceasefires now (which were instantly broken, but the announcement of them is more important as it concludes there have been talks) so such inaction will likely stop soon.  

Sure they have been advances, that is why a series of small villages have been taken, there haven't been large ones like people are used to on here because that is limited. So nice try.

Fact yesterday the SAA Jamlah, they soon lost it. The rebels were forced back only by Russian air power. the armored divisions cannot move right now otherwise they will get eaten alive by AGTM's, SAA isn't going to send in their armored divisions only to have them torn into pieces, What kinda logic is that?. Assad's tanks don't have Active protections lol, Those Kornet or even lower grade ATGM's will always hit the tanks and BMP's and turn them into wreckage.

Material losses aren't negligible, It's BS to sit there and say the stocks they have are huge, after this long and consider the country is controlled by multiple powers. You don't know how many tanks he has left, so don't even sit there and pretend you do and tell me "their stock is huge" A lot of their reserves stock was lost in the opening days of the civil war, that is just silly to say.

Um first off there is not ONE PIECE of evidence from even SAA or Russia that upwards of 500 terrorists are being killed in the past few battles alone. Where are you getting this from?.

That is pure BS to say, if you are going to quote some silly number provide something to back it up. Tiger forces have lost two good commanders, Omar something was killed yesterday in clashes along with many other SAA Troops, you can sit there and try and feed me that BS but no, I know better.

Again the SAA can win, not saying they can't but don't sit here and pretend their losses are minor because they ain't.

Politics are nothing Unless the turks decide to stop supporting them which I doubt they ever will. Oh right the Rebels will simply throw down their guns because they asked..that ain't happening the BEST case for Assad politically is Turkey's closes the border and stops supporting them, the rebels will never surrender in full to Assad.

Is a long term war... the border lines today will not be the same in a month or two ,or next
year.. So rushing to capture a village ,that there is no one there , sacrificing a thousand of soldiers is not Syrian army goal.. The goal is to keep pressure on the terrorist , little by little
bleed them.. with help of Russian airforce.. Rebels will be in a major disadvantage as long Russia airforce can dominate and freely bomb their positions..

But i don't think is Russia policy to rush to capture all idlib..in a few weeks.. or couple of months.. Is a slow war.. to little by little take IDLIB and minimize the soldiers casualties.

Don't buy the propaganda of the so called "Activist sources" and their claims of Syrian army
or Russian army soldiers..  The so called "Syrian observatory of human rights.." and one man
organization from London.. having been for more than 8 years , reporting everytime a battle happens.. and so how he always claim to know how many casualties were.. Even when the fights still going.. So who does the counting?  when bullets still flying from both sides? thats impossible to know.. for a body count you need to search the bodies.. (WHEN THE BATTLE IS OVER) and  they almost never show videos of Syrian army casualties that they claim to happen in big numbers..  As a matter of fact.. Syrian media have been consistent every time reporting their casualties ,every time Israel bombs Syria... they never deny it.. so the most realiable source about losses of Syrian army is Syrian media , and of Russian soldiers of Russian media..  What is important is to put under pressure the Terrorist rebels.. give them no rest.. and they will eventually get tired of being bombed by Russia and leave.
Alqaeda will never get peace , and eventually they will have to leave from IDLIB , they will not be able to grow and develop with Russian missiles falling on their heads  every day..

So people need to relax.. the fight for IDLIB could last 3-5 years. if not more. is a slow attrition war , and what is important is that Syrian army don't suffer too many losses.. what Opposition sources claims Syria military lost ,is not really evidence at all.. whenever the terrorist do a major operation ,they upload videos of it..  the rebels are claiming they shot down 2 planes now from Syrian army.. and they deny it.. that it never happened.. So you can't just take pro NATO sources and media as gospel .. there is propaganda from both sides.. but far more from the NATO and terrorist side.

What is almost certain is that US will have to leave Syria sooner or later ,the more they stay there in Syria ,the more the image of US gov will be damaged world wide..and more protest will face at home US military.. Public Opinion is on the side of Russia and Syria ..and this will be major pressure against US ,and its allies.. Even Turkey Erdogan es facing major critisism for Syrian war.. and his major opposition in elections , was promoting restoring relations with Syria in full.. So the Syrian war will be totally reversed ,once Erdogan is sacked from power.. he will not be there forever.

Map time.

This is a major reverse of events..  that looks like an april fools joke.. but is not april.    

It seems the Alqaeda beardies are more loyal to their CIA handlers than to Turkey..
and they targeted Turkey military too recently ,perhaps for not doing anything against
Russia bombing on their position. . . and according to the story Erodgan requested
Russia airforce to target a group of bad terrorist .  

Perhaps Russia government is throwing that story as a media trap ,to see if Erdogan deny it and comes in the defense of the terrorist in public..  to try to create a confrontation in the
friendship between Erdogan and Alnusra..  If the news is real.. and not a trap for ERdogan policy in Syria.. to force him take a side..  Then this could be the first time Turkey goes
against Alqaeda in Syria..  

Russian Air Force targets militants in Syria’s Idlib at request of Turkish military

https://www.rt.com/news/461770-idlib-russia-airstrike-turkey-terrorists/

Syria goal should be not much about territorial advances.. but more about creating
massive casualties on terrorist.. as much as possible in short time ,with little or no casualties for Syrian army..  Because territory can switch hands from side to side,a lot of times.. but you can't replace a terrorist with combat experience that will like to go to Syria to be bombed by Russia so quickly.. and is no good strategy to completely clear IDLIB
from Alqaeda fast and later provoke Turkey army to fight Syria..  So if it is done slowly ,little by little.. A war of attrition against Alqaeda.. this will make the terrorist realize ,that is not worth of staying in Syria and that is not sustainable their war against Assad. and that they will be betrayed.

The most important development was France Macron saying (suggesting) that is time to drop sanctions on Russia and move forward and to consider Russia interest.. too..
and what are Russian interest still not in agreement with France? that both nations still not in same page?  Syria that is... Because MACRON supports the peace trap  , that Russia crafted for Ukraine ,so called Minsk2 agreement..  As long Europe insist on it.. that Ukraine have no option but to do it..  it is still alive regardless if not followed now..and will have to be followed.. either next month or in years in future.. Is a roadmap Ukraine can't escape and will have to do as long the EU stand by it, since Europe and Russia will hold on it.. and Ukraine future depends on both.

More 'stuff' heading south, one more heavily loaded than the other. THe Russian Navy should be proud of the performance of these ships and their crews.

I think you agree that , if all the terror groups were physically  separate  from  the civilian population and caught in the open , that Russian air force could  finish them off  quickly and end the war . Even if  SAA does not have manpower  to launch ground offensive .  It then matters little what support the rats get through open borders .

The trick is to separate them from civilian population . Using the SAA  on the ground to bring them out of fox holes . Then use accurate indirect real time fire to target them . Classic close ground support by Russian air force , may not be as quick , responsive or surgical method , to do this . Using heavy payloads from altitude . Also as described before , rats are alerted by sound or radar in advance . Same problem with heavy artillery .

The SAA , needs to use new technology , like UCAV ,  deployed during firefights by soldiers , to target the rats as they come out of holes . Direct fire not effective in trenches warfare.  You need a UCAV , carried by soldiers backpack . That can look down and shoot down . Blast downwards .  Min range of  average gun firefights of say 200 m . Max range of ATGW range of 4000 m . Or use 20 or 30 mm  , air burst , electronic timed frag round from mobile auto - cannon , or special adapted sniper rifle , long range  .

https://twitter.com/I30mki/status/1139546420308877312

"ERDOGAN: TURKEY WILL RESPOND IF SYRIAN ARMY CONTINUES ATTACKS ON OBSERVATION POST AROUND IDLIB."


https://southfront.org/erdogan-turkey-will-respond-if-syrian-army-continues-attacks-on-observation-post-around-idlib/

Turkey can not have it , both ways . In Syria , they have to decide if these groups in Idlib  can be part of peace process or not . They used to say that these groups are democrats . Then they have to show evidence for it . And if these groups have no political party and open membership and political national programme , then they are classed as terrorist and separatist . No different to other type of separatists.  And if  Turkey takes  a stance against separatism  at home ( including Kurdish separatism ) , then the radical's  exact pretence to theology is irrelevant .

I think that SAA should continue operation against elements that are irreconcilable  .  Terror and sectarian groups . If Turkey wants to fight the SAA , then so be it . The Syrian army can also retaliate . It is upto the Russians , how they approach this problem . I suppose a two track policy is needed . One where relations are kept good and open . Including sale of S400 . Unaffected.  The other critical of active engagement against the SAA .  Supporting Turkey to become independent state closer to Russia and Iran , should not be mixed up with stopping Turkey negative work in Syria . A kind of balancing act . Lavrov should be able to do it .

About more effective targeting  of rats by SAA , without using Russian airforce . I thought of modifying  a  round for recoiless rifle . To use timed fused ( anti - personnel  ) air frag round with laser range finders.  Speed and range should be maxed out , in order to hit ATGW nests , before or shortly after they fire . Syrians themselves should be able to make this round.  Yemen can make much more , without Russian help nearby . I wish Taddie 2 was here .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPG-9

In a firefights ,  that I suspect is mainly by light arms , in a hit and run style , then it should be clear , where firing comes from  and to precisely target that area . The yanks made a ninja UAV that uses kinetic kill , instead of blast . Taking out just a car or a  single fighter.  An air dropped small load of 500 lb , has kill radius of thirty or forty meters . Many women and children and non combatants there .

I think the SAA can bring out the rats by starting a fight . Then more precise and localised and immediate ( not waiting for airforce or artillery for reasons stated before ) fire needed . Something that is fast , and sounds same as light guns  when it is fired . That soldiers can carry . Blast radius small , 5 meters .



https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.economist.com/science-and-technology/2012/01/14/magic-bullets

The turks sent heavy armor to observation posts along with more things where Assad is trying to push, they have issued warnings and made their line in the sand.

Let us see how Assad and Putin will respond to this.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The turks sent heavy armor to observation posts along with more things where Assad is trying to push, they have issued warnings and made their line in the sand.

Let us see how Assad and Putin will respond to this.

By going around

I'm pretty sure that once those S-400s are offloaded in Turkey and everything clears it will be showtime in Idlib

Nobody in Russia wants to rock the boat until then, it just too convenient

PapaDragon wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The turks sent heavy armor to observation posts along with more things where Assad is trying to push, they have issued warnings and made their line in the sand.

Let us see how Assad and Putin will respond to this.

By going around

I'm pretty sure that once those S-400s are offloaded in Turkey and everything clears it will be showtime in Idlib

Nobody in Russia wants to rock the boat until then, it just too convenient

You can't just drive around them, The turks will not allow their troops to be encircled by the SAA.

Russia will not attack them and Assad cannot risk attacking them Idlib is already turning into quite the quagmire, if the turks start shooting there is no way Assad will ever get Idlib back.

The situation is quite complicated.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The turks sent heavy armor to observation posts along with more things where Assad is trying to push, they have issued warnings and made their line in the sand.

Let us see how Assad and Putin will respond to this.

By going around

I'm pretty sure that once those S-400s are offloaded in Turkey and everything clears it will be showtime in Idlib

Nobody in Russia wants to rock the boat until then, it just too convenient

You can't just drive around them, The turks will not allow their troops to be encircled by the SAA.

Russia will not attack them and Assad cannot risk attacking them Idlib is already turning into quite the quagmire, if the turks start shooting there is no way Assad will ever get Idlib back.

The situation is quite complicated.

Turks are sitting ducks there. If Russia wants them to leave they better go. US won't protect them from russian and they have nothing to protect themselves with against russians.

Their f-16 will never go inside Syria anymore since they downed the su-24 which was never revanged and you can be sure those sukhois and s-400 crews are wishing for a revange.

Russia or Iran or Turkey or Yank or Usraeli,  must do this and that and other in Syria ! No ! Syrians must do this and that and other in Syria . The SAA needs to set up weapon plants like Hezb forces and Yemen . Most needed are SSBM . Followed by UCAV .  Then they can hit Turks if they don't leave . And Usraeli , if they attack . And Yanks , because it feels good . Every body then can go home that is not invited . Syria should get help from Iran to establish national defence industry . As well as houses for refugees.

@ GarryB

There are many solutions . The best are to use existing modified gear .  Ones that SAA , can themselves  build locally,  with basic tools .  Instead of sending from Russia,  in a ship , past  coast of Turkey . There are problems  of noise  and radar and  rapidity  of engagements and collateral damage .

The UCAV solufion ,  firing supersonic  projectiles is one solution . These must be developed and built and staff trained.  This is a disadvantage . Plus these have to loiter , waiting for a firefight . You need many . The  recoiless rifle solution , only needs present HE frag rounds to be adapted . New laser range finder fitted . If fired in indirect manner , it can reach out to 6500 meter range . Well more than any ATGW . It is man portable .  The other exotic solution is to use a mortar fired by rail gun or coil gun . Subsonic . To make silent . Laser homing . But again can not be done easy . New equipment .


http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/92338/darpa-railgun-demos-mortar-round-firings.html

ISO that is beyond wrong thinking if you think Putin is going to let the Russian's Military attack the Turks first, if they attack the Russians sure then but other then that no.

I don't even know how you think that, It's not going to happen, Turk's won't leave because russia said so. Russa isn't going to start bombing them, keep dreaming.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:ISO that is beyond wrong thinking if you think Putin is going to let the Russian's Military attack the Turks first, if they attack the Russians sure then but other then that no.

I don't even know how you think that, It's not going to happen, Turk's won't leave because russia said so. Russa isn't going to start bombing them, keep dreaming.

They will continue fighting because the syrian army will not just sit idle as you idiocally suggest they should do for fear of Turkey army.. if a strong man armed to the teeth a stranger enters in your house and you are there with your family and you demand him to leave but don't listen and start killing your family.. will you say oh not he is so powerful,i will sit down and allow him to kill my family?    So as yourself that question First , if you will allow your life and your family life to be taken without a fight? if the answer is you will defend yourself no matter what.. even if hells open . then so the Syrian army will do the same too..

And because the terrorist will Not stop , targeting civilians at Syrian army position..
then they will return fire is their country and they have the right to kick Turkey and Alqaeda out of their lands and so any army who stand in the middle Whether is turkey or Americans or Israel.. their  fire will be returned and more advances (and tactical retreats) + advances will continue.. So Turkey will face an attrition war ,just like the terrorist.. If Turkey army try to enter in Syrian army zones.. their tanks will be very visible , and easy targets.. Turkey will not have close air support in Syria ,their planes will be shut down if try to do it..,but Syria will have from their own planes and Russian airforce.. All things said , Syrian army with Russian help is on a better position to repel a Turkey army attack..  With Russia help , it will be very difficult for Turkey or the terrorist ,to hold a territory for long.. specially if they continue targeting Syrians cities every day.. with artillery..  Just a dozen of civilians died yesterday ,from the Rebels artillery.  So remember that Syrian army have no choice ,
but to fight.. or die doing nothing and losing territory in their country..  What will make the difference in Syria favor if is Syria do things little by little ,step by step .. with as less casualties as possible..  

So what will you do if Alqaeda or Turkey or Israel invades your city with heavy weapons and you only have light guns? you will fight , there is no question about it , if there is no other option.. and no place to Run ,you will defend yourself..

At worse ,what could happen is , Russia airforce is forced to start bombing Turkey army.. in retaliation for their attacks.. on Syria army.. Will Erdogan risk a war with Russia in defense of Alqaeda and a small piece of land?  Russia neither can leave.. and abandon an ally after
offered help with their military.. The only one that can retreat is Erdogan and the terrorist who invaded idlib.. but Russia and Syria can't allow terrorist to continue targeting their bases and civilians..   Can Russia beat the hell of Turkey army? Of course it can.. Russia can beat the hell of Turkey and destroy its entire army... So erdogan options are more limited ,than Putin options.. Russia have a very powerful military that can force Erdogan to retreat
using lethal force..

In short and medium term ,Turkey 100k army deployed at Syrian borders ,will have a huge advantage in ground forces and could force if they send a full scale invasion through its border and declare war against Syria and Russia.. and IRAN..
for sure Russian army will be on numbers disadvantage.. but if Turkey declare war on Russia , The Russian airforce will sink the entire navy of ERdogan in one day, in the black sea.. and will continue bombing Turkey most important assets and military bases and powerplants ,leaving Turkey in darkness day and night with impunity ,forcing erdogan to retreat and leave Syria in a powerful Asymetric response .. and NATO will not come in the help of Alqaeda in IDLIB or even less Turkey.. Most Europe and Greece will side with Russia .  If Erdogan try to use force to make Syrian army retreat. it will face lethal force back. and it will be self defense.. because Syria is defending their territory and Erdogan have no legality to be with an army in Syria..  

All said , Russia and Syria have better possibilities to come with the upper hand in any scenario.. As long the Syrian army manage to do it in a slow way ,and with as lowest casualties possible..  Russian military , for sure already have war plans to fight Turkey in case they betray Russia again.. and Turkey stand not a chance against Russian airforce and missile forces.. IRAN will also declare war on Turkey if they go against Russia.. So it will be a war Turkey have no chance to win.. If it can't defend their own cities from Russian airforce.. They bomb Russian base.. then Russia bomb Turkey capital.. to send a strong message to Erdogan. they bomb Syrian army..then Russia provide coordinates to target Turkey positions.. with long range rocket artillery ..   So make sure ,as much i dislike Putin,as leader.. he is not an ignorant in military matters.. and they had to have plans for years , in case Erdogan backstab Putin again and target Russian military. will be a defacto declaration of war.. thats how it will be seen.. and Turkey will be flatened to the ground and left without a navy if they target again Russian airforce. And Erdogan and turkey military will be forced to surrender ,by the destruction Russia will cause to Turkey navy and economic infrastructure and military bases. .  in fact is more likely Erdogan risk assassination of its own generals if goes to a war against IRAN and Russia...  Only US ,UK and the snake of Israel could join in a limited way the side of Turkey.. they know the risk are very high on a nuclear confrontation that they will end losing.

So like i said , ERdogan have no chance to defeat Assad and syrian army with Russia and IRAN helping them with close air support.. cruise missiles and other weapons.. Russia have air domination over IDLIB.. Turkey is without close air support.. is that simple.
So the only way Erdogan have to impose its will on syria is declaring war on Russia ,IRAN and Syria openly.. and this is when more faster the war will end.. the black sea totally dominated by Russia and Russia will be flatenning Turkey naval bases ,warships ,airports and economic zones.. Truly Erdogan will surrender in less than 24 hours in a fight with Russia. and this is when the real war will end ,when Turkey close the aid to Alqaeda in IDLIB ,without food ,without munition ,or weapons they can't continue fighting for more than a month or two.  or just weeks if positions of all munitions warehouse of the terrorist .given to Russia.

THis is not saying it will be easy for Russia.. im fully aware that technically speaking if Erdogan goes full retard mode.. he could even Capture Russian base sending 50k -100k strong army soldiers with 500 tanks.. in a fast speed war ,forcing Russian military into a tactical retreat.. but the russian response ..   will  break the arms and back of Erdogan.. All Turkey territory ,powerplants ,military bases ,navy will be owned by Russian airforce ,navy and missile forces.. Russia can make it incredibly too expensive for Erdogan ,any major adventure on Syria. To reverse the achievements of Russia..  Russia can even invade Istanbul ,destroy the bridge.. let the turkey army swim..    if want to fight..
and kick the Turkey army there with Greece secret support .. in case of full scale war.. and use Istanbul as a bargaining ship ,for negotiations for Erdogan immediate leaving of Syria and including reparations damages on Russia for his illegal war on Syria..

Putin have far more options than Erdogan to win in Syria in case Turkey declares war on Russia ,using assymetric responses..  and is more likely Erodgan will end assassinated if he give such an order to go against Russia ,IRAN and Syria..in a full scale war.. that they can't win ,if Russia airforce can continue endlessly targeting every city military base and powerplant in Turkey with cruise missiles..  Idlib will not be worth of it , Risking a full scale war with Syria..that could go nuclear.. and Turkey will completely lose..  and Turkey missile forces have no chance to cause major damages ,if any to Russia.. with the heavy fortified area denial zones Russia have been preparing for years in souther Russia and Crimea..
Turkey have a strong army.. and airforce too , but his nation defenses and navy is extremely weak.. and very vulnerable to any cruise missile attack. this is why they want to buy Patriots defenses and S-400s. So Russia can continue sinking Turkey warships , one by one , demanding Erdogan to stop its war on Syria or else they will be without a navy.. and i don't think Erdogan popularity will be very high , if he lose his entire navy to Russian navy and airforce after declaring war on Russia....  This is just using the conventional war scenario ..because if Russia use their ultimate force ,their tactical nukes Turkey will surrender as soon see one mushroom cloud wiping completely his military naval bases.
and So Erdogan will have to surrender inconditionally and accept all demands of Russia ,in
change for Russia not beating them more..    Russia can invade Istanbul and hold it.. with Greece protecting their rear.. and can help cyprus recover their lost territory .. to turkey too.. Turkey is an example of a real paper tiger.. Strong army and nothing else..
Turkey F-16s will be shooting gallery for Russian Su-35's airforce..and Russian navy in black sea.. Historically speaking, Turkey and Russia fought many wars,, and they lost all of them.
and i don't see any possible for Turkey to win in a war versus Russia.. perhaps Israel supplying Turkey with nukes to help them in a fight vs Russia.. but that will be the total destruction of not only Turkey but also Israel.

and in such a war , the myth of NATO being a powerful alliance with end forever.. is not united alliance ,greece will not side with Turkey against Russia.. more likely Greece will connect their s-300s to Russia network ,to provide information and help in secret Russia to target turkey Planes. and most of Europe will not fight Russia..

When Turkey shot down the Russian plane ,killing RUssian soldiers..and he visit NATO headquaters for support in case of war with Russia.. (just like i expected it.. NATO headquaters told him .. You are on your own..
NATO will never risk a war with Russia that can go nuclear ,that is an offensive war and not in defense of any european country. that is a war they can't justify ,the risk of so many casualties.. This is why Ukraine will NEVER be part of NATO.. and maybe Georgia neither..
because will be too embarrasing for NATO ,that Russia invades a NATO country and they do nothing.. So they want to be in a position to defend Ukraine in the worse possible place in the world ,that Russia is stronger.. near its borders.. and so Americans and UK and Canada the usual stooges will be in a huge disadvantage fighting a full scale war with Russia so close to Russian borders and in the black sea ,where Russia will have total domination..
Russian S-400s air defenses including crimea and eastern border.. will cover 70% of Ukraine airspace and 100% if receive belarus help.. So US ,UK and the usual stooges will never go to a war ,if their enemies will control the airspace they plan to fight and Russia can easily target day and night non stop ,their military bases with long rage artillery and so many advanced missiles.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:ISO that is beyond wrong thinking if you think Putin is going to let the Russian's Military attack the Turks first, if they attack the Russians sure then but other then that no.

I don't even know how you think that, It's not going to happen, Turk's won't leave because russia said so. Russa isn't going to start bombing them, keep dreaming.

I'm not saying its gonna happen but if it happens Turkey can't do much. Anyway turks are already attacked by their allies because they can't protect them from russian bombers. And they even asked the russians to bomb them. Their alliance is starting to collapse.

They will have no choice but to leave. And frankly they have no more reason to stay on this side of Syria. Assad won the west of Syria. On the east they have kurds building up their position and its gonna be a problem for at least the next 20-30 years even more if US make them leave nato because of their close ties with russia and china. Then US will use the kurds against them and will arm them and support them military.

Their best hope right now is that Assad takes full control of the country as fast as he can.

And russians are not making "deals" with Turkey because they think its a major actor there, but because doing so it pisses off US. Add S-400 and su-57 to that, kurds at turkish border, the coup and Erdogan's ego and you end up with Turkey leaving Nato which means all the south eastern Nato flank collapsing (protected only by Bulgaria and other useless countries) while in the middle east US are fixed by Iran expension and in the east by Chinese expension. On the north Russia is building up military bases around the pole. On the west Europe has no more trust in US, Uk is leaving EU, and US soldiers are moving from germany to poland which is a mirror of their relations.