If submarines continue to be placed in the shipyard once those that have already been built are delivered, the two additional planned Yasen's should be delivered in 2030 without problems
I see no problems with Yasen's being delivered in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 , which would give a total of 10 SSGN 885/885M in addition to Ulyanovsk 09853
In the last revision of Navy Korabel it also indicates so
Nor do I see any problems with another two 885M being ordered (in 2023 or 2025) to deliver in 2031 and 2032, thus totaling 12 Yasen´s
Also a second 09853 should be contracted, for a total of 4 Poseidon complex
However, I would transform the Severodvinsk 885 into 09853 and hire another 885M instead, in order to have a homogeneous fleet of 12
Another option is to transform the Severodvinsk into a substitute for the Delta IV BS-64.
The nuclar submarine force shuld have at least 12 Boreis 12 Yasen and 12-16 new SSN´s. apart from at least 4 Poseidon-carrying submarines
The modernization of several 971M and 949AM ships in this decade of 2020's, is necessary to extend the life of these submarines until 2035-2040 and fill the gap waiting for the new SSN's that will not begin to arrive until early of the 2030's
In another case, in 2030 there would only be 12 Boreis and 10 Yasen and no other nuclear submarines available.
By the way, do you know what kind of submarine hull the pr.09851 Khabarovsk is?
According to the Russian Wikipedia it is 113 meters long (similar to an Akula) but it does not seem very credible to me, since the keel of the ship was laid in 2014, it seems to me that it should be more of a Yasen hull
I think Ulyanovsk is the 885M project. As for the 09853 project, the keel laying of this submarine took place without ceremony and it has a different name. The 09853 project itself is unofficially based on the 955A project. Like the 09851, it is based on the 955. These are scaled down versions of the SSBN. The project 09851/09853 itself is highly classified due to the Poseidon project, which will be a completely new system of strategic deterrence of Russia.
I don't see a need to base a 09851/09853 on a 955/955A since you don't need the rear hump at all for SBLMs
If you look at the names of the submarines:
949A names of SIberian cities such as Irkutsk and Chelyabinsk in the Pacific Fleet and European Russian cities such as Smolensk and Orel in the Northern Fleet (there is an exception with Tver former ex-Vilyuchinsk)
09852 based on 949A: European Russian city of Belgorod (Northern fleet)
09851 Russian Siberian city of Khabarovsk for the Pacific Fleet
09853 European Russian city Ulyanovsk for the Northern Fleet
The 955/955A submarines have names of Princes and Generals, so I am inclined to think that the 09851/09853 are based on 885M