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    US Economy Thread

    Kiko
    Kiko


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    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Empty Re: US Economy Thread

    Post  Kiko Wed Nov 23, 2022 9:51 pm

    FOMC Minutes Split Between Dovish (Slower Hikes) And Hawkish (Higher Terminal Rate) Views, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge. 11.23.2022.

    Perhaps most critically when breaking down the FOMC statement - the focus falls on one word: "various".

    Bloomberg concludes that while policymakers stressed their “strong commitment” to reducing inflation, support for a higher rate peak may have been less than universal.

    Hence the dovish lean to a hawkish message from the Minutes.

    Since The Fed hiked rates by 75bps (for the 4th time) on Nov 2nd, the dollar has been monkeyhammered lower while bonds and bullion have outperformed (along with gains in stocks) as hopes for a pause (the FOMC statement) dominated reality of no pause (Powell and dozens of Fed Speakers since)...

    While there has been lots of volatility, the market's expectation for The Fed's terminal rate is basically flat while the market's pricing in a more dovish reaction by The Fed after they have reached the peak and sparked a recession...

    The yield curve has flattened dramatically since the last FOMC statement (inverting ever deeper as recession risks get priced in)...

    So, all eyes will be on the Minutes for any signs of the 'pivot/pause/slow-down' that was hinted at in the statement but which Chair Powell destroyed in the press conference. Additionally, the 'higher for longer' narrative that has been pushed by numerous Fed Speakers in the last two weeks will be important to pay attention to (i.e if a higher terminal rate than previously thought is needed... and then maintaining that restrictive stance for longer before cutting rates to save the world). Any signals on financial stability anxiety, especially related to QT, will be monitored closely.

    The bottom line is that the Minutes will be eyed for commentary on the central bank's reaction function to both labor and inflation.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-signal-higher-terminal-rate-slowing-pace-hikes.
    Kiko
    Kiko


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    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Empty Re: US Economy Thread

    Post  Kiko Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:55 pm

    FOMC Hikes By 50bps, Hawkishly Signals Rates Will Go Higher-For-Longer, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge. 12.14.2022.

    Fed hiked rates by 50bps as expected but signaled, through its projections, that it will hike rates higher than the market expects and hold those rates higher for longer. Furthermore, the projections for economic growth, employment, and inflation all suggest The Fed expects a recession.

    Fed rate expectations are notably more hawkish than the market's...

    Since the November 2nd (dovish) FOMC statement and (hawkish) press conference chaos, gold and bonds have dramatically outperformed, stock have rallied as the dollar and crypto tumbled...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-5

    GarryB likes this post

    Scorpius
    Scorpius


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    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Empty Re: US Economy Thread

    Post  Scorpius Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:10 am


    Mikhail Khazin on the future of the world economy. I recommend watching the video through Yandex browser, there is a function of voice translation of the video into the language you need.
    kvs
    kvs


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    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Empty Re: US Economy Thread

    Post  kvs Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:39 am

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

    The M1 expanded from 4 trillion in January of 2020 to 20.7 trillion dollars by February of 2020.

    M1 is the narrow money supply which consists of paper money, coins and overnight deposits. So the US M1 expansion
    is pure Pancho Villa style money printing.


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    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Empty Re: US Economy Thread

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      Current date/time is Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:28 am