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    US Economy Thread

    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Nov 23, 2022 9:51 pm

    FOMC Minutes Split Between Dovish (Slower Hikes) And Hawkish (Higher Terminal Rate) Views, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge. 11.23.2022.

    Perhaps most critically when breaking down the FOMC statement - the focus falls on one word: "various".

    Bloomberg concludes that while policymakers stressed their “strong commitment” to reducing inflation, support for a higher rate peak may have been less than universal.

    Hence the dovish lean to a hawkish message from the Minutes.

    Since The Fed hiked rates by 75bps (for the 4th time) on Nov 2nd, the dollar has been monkeyhammered lower while bonds and bullion have outperformed (along with gains in stocks) as hopes for a pause (the FOMC statement) dominated reality of no pause (Powell and dozens of Fed Speakers since)...

    While there has been lots of volatility, the market's expectation for The Fed's terminal rate is basically flat while the market's pricing in a more dovish reaction by The Fed after they have reached the peak and sparked a recession...

    The yield curve has flattened dramatically since the last FOMC statement (inverting ever deeper as recession risks get priced in)...

    So, all eyes will be on the Minutes for any signs of the 'pivot/pause/slow-down' that was hinted at in the statement but which Chair Powell destroyed in the press conference. Additionally, the 'higher for longer' narrative that has been pushed by numerous Fed Speakers in the last two weeks will be important to pay attention to (i.e if a higher terminal rate than previously thought is needed... and then maintaining that restrictive stance for longer before cutting rates to save the world). Any signals on financial stability anxiety, especially related to QT, will be monitored closely.

    The bottom line is that the Minutes will be eyed for commentary on the central bank's reaction function to both labor and inflation.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-signal-higher-terminal-rate-slowing-pace-hikes.
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    Post  Kiko Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:55 pm

    FOMC Hikes By 50bps, Hawkishly Signals Rates Will Go Higher-For-Longer, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge. 12.14.2022.

    Fed hiked rates by 50bps as expected but signaled, through its projections, that it will hike rates higher than the market expects and hold those rates higher for longer. Furthermore, the projections for economic growth, employment, and inflation all suggest The Fed expects a recession.

    Fed rate expectations are notably more hawkish than the market's...

    Since the November 2nd (dovish) FOMC statement and (hawkish) press conference chaos, gold and bonds have dramatically outperformed, stock have rallied as the dollar and crypto tumbled...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-5

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    Scorpius
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    Post  Scorpius Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:10 am


    Mikhail Khazin on the future of the world economy. I recommend watching the video through Yandex browser, there is a function of voice translation of the video into the language you need.
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    Post  kvs Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:39 am

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

    The M1 expanded from 4 trillion in January of 2020 to 20.7 trillion dollars by February of 2020.

    M1 is the narrow money supply which consists of paper money, coins and overnight deposits. So the US M1 expansion
    is pure Pancho Villa style money printing.

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:52 am

    That's why Nuland the cow is pressing for strategic talks "even tomorrow": it's because the pressure on the US long term prospects for their federal budget deficit gets increasingly problematic, affecting the degrees of freedom needed for defence expenditures on strategic weapons, on the support for Kyiv, the financing of military bases abroad, coupled with skyrocketing provisions for their budgetary debt service as their key rate is expected to rise even further.
    That's why Russia's economic position on the strategic arms race is most favourable:

    US Fed warns of more rate hikes, 02.23.2023.

    The February meeting minutes show that officials are still concerned with inflation despite the recent slowing.

    US inflation is showing signs of slowing, but not enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, the regulator’s February meeting minutes released on Wednesday show.

    According to the document, inflation in the country “remained well above” the 2% target, while labor markets “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.”

    “Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path,” the minutes said, noting that “ongoing” rate hikes will be necessary. At the meeting, the Fed approved yet another 25-basis point increase, bringing the rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%.

    The extent of the upcoming rate increases has not been revealed, and the minutes show that officials are divided on the issue. However, in an interview with CNBC, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard suggested that a more aggressive hike would give the regulator a better chance to rein in inflation at a faster pace.

    “It has become popular to say, ‘Let’s slow down and feel our way to where we need to be.’ We still haven’t gotten to the point where the committee put the so-called terminal rate… You’ll know when you’re there when the next move could be up or down. Our risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do? Let’s be sharp now, let’s get inflation under control in 2023,” he said.

    US inflation somewhat cooled in January, rising at an annual rate of 6.4% and up 0.5% from December. Analysts predict another quarter-point rate hike in March, and two more later in the year to bring the indicator to a peak of 5.25%-5.5%. Market experts, however, warn that if the regulator rushes the hikes or brings the rate too high, the economy could plunge into a recession.

    https://www.rt.com/business/571966-us-fed-more-rate-hikes/

    The figure of 0.5% for the December 2022 CPI rate growth most probably was fake. So they had to correct it to the real pattern of 6.4% in January to save face.

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:47 pm

    More US Interest Rate Hikes Needed to Win Inflation Fight, Federal Reserve Says, 03.03.2023.

    WASHINGTON3 (Sputnik) - The United States needs more interest rate hikes if the Federal Reserve is to win the battle against the most stubborn inflation in four decades, the Federal Reserve said in a report to Congress.

    "Core foreign inflation remains high and inflationary pressures are broad," the Fed said in the semi-annual report prepared for the country’s lawmakers.

    Referring to its policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, the US central bank said: "The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective. Ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive."

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broader gauge of inflation, hit a 40-year high of 9.1% for the year to June. It has moderated since to an annualized growth of 6.4% in January but remains well above the Fed’s target of 2% per year.

    To clamp down on runaway price growth, the Fed added 450 basis points to interest rates since March last year via eight hikes. Prior to that, rates stood at nearly zero after the global outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020.

    The Fed’s first post-COVID-19 interest rate hike was a 25-basis point increase in March last year. It then moved up with a 50-basis point increase in May. After that it executed four back-to-back jumbo-sized hikes of 75 basis points from June through November. Since then, it has returned to a more modest 50-basis point increase in December and a 25-basis point hike in February.

    Rate expectations for the Fed’s March 22 policy meeting, monitored by foreign exchange traders, remained largely at 25 basis points on Friday, though that could change with the increasing calls for tighter policing from the central bank’s hawks.

    Sensing public concern over the influence held by its policy-makers, the Fed said in its report to Congress that its target was to balance policy with real-world happenings.

    "Officials are mindful of monetary policy rules, and don’t use them to drive policy," the Fed said.

    Delving further on the matter, the Fed said it actually took longer than necessary to do its first pandemic-era tightening, keeping rates below what policy required for most of 2021 and 2022.

    https://sputniknews.com/20230303/more-us-interest-rate-hikes-needed-to-win-inflation-fight-federal-reserve-says-1107993215.html

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:03 pm

    US to continue tightening monetary policy, Fed says. 03.07.2023.

    Fed chief Powell said the US will continue to raise the key rate to fight inflation.

    WASHINGTON, March 7 - RIA Novosti. The US will continue to raise the key rate to fight inflation, said the head of the Federal Reserve Service (FRS) Jerome Powell.

    “With inflation well above our long-term target of 2% and the labor market remaining extremely tight, the Open Market Commission continues to tighten monetary policy, raising interest rates to 4.5% over the past year. We continue to expect that a continued increase in the target range for federal funds would be appropriate," Powell said at a Senate committee hearing.

    According to him, "although inflation has been slowing down in recent months, the process of its reduction to 2% is going to be long and bumpy."

    https://ria.ru/20230307/inflyatsiya-1856475320.html

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    Post  Kiko Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:10 am

    US Treasury Secretary: debt default could lead to 'economic and financial collapse', 03.12.2023.

    Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary, criticized the position of many Republicans in Congress, who refuse to raise the country's debt ceiling without reductions in spending by the presidential administration.

    The US could suffer an "economic and financial collapse" if the government debt ceiling is not raised unconditionally, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday (10), quoted by the US agency Bloomberg.

    "In my assessment, and that of economists in general, a default on our debt would trigger an economic and financial catastrophe," Yellen said in reference to the$ 31.4 trillion borrowing ceiling.

    "I urge all members of Congress to come together to address the debt limit, without conditions and without waiting until the last minute," he said, stressing that if this is not done, the US would lose the economic progress made after the covid-19 pandemic crisis.

    "The prioritization is simply not paying all the government bills when the time comes to do so. This is something we have never done since 1789, and this is really just a default by another name," she stressed, suggesting simply paying off all debts on time.

    Some Republicans have demanded planned spending cuts from President Joe Biden in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Yellen refused to negotiate on raising the debt ceiling, arguing that it is necessary to comply with previously made congressional spending decisions.

    Yandex Translate from Portuguese

    https://sputniknewsbrasil.com.br/20230311/secretaria-do-tesouro-dos-eua-incumprimento-da-divida-pode-levar-a-colapso-economico-e-financeiro-28015640.html

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:15 am

    Media: The US administration is on the verge of a crisis in the banking system, by Valentina Grigorenko for VZGLYAD. 03.12.2023.

    Axios: Biden administration faces banking crisis.

    The administration of US President Joe Biden faces a banking crisis if a plan to rescue Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) depositors is not developed by tomorrow, US media reported.

    Axios writes that President Biden faces a catastrophic banking crisis if the US government fails to arrange a deal to save Silicon Valley Bank depositors before branches open tomorrow. RIA Novosti.

    The day before, American billionaire Elon Musk allowed the purchase of the bankrupt Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), he said that he was open to this idea.

    Earlier, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that it had been appointed the external manager of Silicon Valley Bank. SVB is the largest bank that collapsed in the US after the financial crisis.

    The FDIC transferred all insured deposits from the SVB to a separate entity it created, the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara.

    https://vz.ru/news/2023/3/12/1202814.html

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:03 pm

    US dollar slides amid banking turmoil, 03.13.2023.

    Markets expect a pause in rate hikes, while regulators deal with the aftermath of bank failures.

    The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, plunged to near one-month lows on Monday, following a Goldman Sachs forecast that Washington will likely halt rate hikes. According to trading data, the index slid 0.6% to 103.9 by 09:00 GMT.

    Goldman’s previous forecast predicted a 25-basis-point hike at the next Fed meeting in March. The change in expectations came after US regulators on Sunday announced a new emergency program aimed at protecting bank clients, following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week.

    According to a joint statement from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), they will make a “systemic risk exception” to allow both insured and uninsured depositors of the failed banks to regain full access to their money. The Fed also separately announced it would make additional funding available for banks in cases of emergency, through a new Bank Term Funding Program.

    The measures led investors to predict the Fed may be too busy sorting through the fallout of the banks’ failures to raise interest rates in the near term.

    There is a historic correlation between higher interest rates and failures of overleveraged financial institutions Overleveraging occurs when a business has borrowed too much money and is unable to pay interest payments, principal repayments, or maintain payments for operating expenses due to its debt burden. However, analysts say US inflation data release on Tuesday may also affect the Fed’s rate hike plans.

    The Fed hiked the key rate on more than one occasion in recent months in a bid to reign in soaring inflation. The latest 25-basis-point increase was announced on February 1, bringing the rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. Prior to last week, analysts expected at least three more rate hikes this year to bring the indicator to a peak of 5.25%-5.5%.

    https://www.rt.com/business/572886-us-dollar-slides-banking-turmoil/

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:39 pm

    "With paper and paint": Moscow reveals how the US will keep its banking stable, 03.13.2023.

    "They will print more dollars not backed by anything and will cause even more problems to the world," the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said.

    The methods with which the United States seeks to maintain its banking stability after the closure of two financial institutions in the country last week are known to any underaged minor, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Monday.

    Noting that a second bank in the US has already gone broke, the spokeswoman commented on her Telegram channel on media reports that Biden was going to give a speech on Monday on the measures to be taken after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

    "Any child can explain how the US authorities will 'maintain the soundness of the banking system': with paper and paint. They will print more dollars not backed by anything and will cause even more problems for the world," Zakharova said, referring to the abandonment of the gold standard by the US currency decades ago.

    Last Friday, the American banking system suffered the largest bankruptcy since the financial crisis of 2008: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the country, collapsed after depositors, mostly linked to the technology sector and venture capital-backed companies, withdrew their money as concerns about the crisis spread within the banking institution.

    Two days later, regulators closed the New York-based Signature Bank due to systemic risks and in order to prevent a contagion in the sector.

    Banking regulators took control of both entities and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to have their assets at their disposal.

    The U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC assured that depositors of Signature Bank and SVB will be compensated and that taxpayers will not suffer losses.

    On Monday, President Joe Biden assured the country's population of the stability of the nation's banking system, despite the problems that have occurred in the sector.

    Yandex Translate from Spanish

    https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/460717-papel-pintura-moscu-revelar-eeuu-mantener-banca

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    Post  GarryB Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:27 am

    When interest rates are so low people are not encouraged to save money... it makes more sense to spend money because you get almost no interest keeping it in a bank.

    When interest rates are very low it makes sense to borrow money instead, but when inflation pushes rates up you find your servicing costs to your loans start to get bigger at a time when income tends to stagnate and other prices go up too... when you can't pay your loans back getting a new loan to cover things is the worst thing to do yet some do it because that is the go to solution... and then they come and take your stuff...
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:22 pm

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:04 pm

    $31Trillion National Debt Greatest Threat to US, Not Russia or China: Senator, 03.15.2023.

    WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - Russia or China do not present the greatest threat to the United States, but the $31 trillion national debt does, US Senator Roger Marshall said in a congressional heading on Wednesday.

    "I'm often asked what's the greatest threat our nation faces and I'm here to tell you [that] it's not Russia. It's not China. It's not North Korea. It's not Iran. And no, I love the environment, it's not climate change. The greatest long-term threat the United States faces is our national debt of $31 trillion and growing," Marshall told the US Senate Budget Committee.

    President Joe Biden has spent more than any other president in US history during his first 20 months in office, Marshall said.

    Under the Biden administration, energy prices have risen more than 37%, home heating fuel more than 52%, electricity prices more than 23%, gasoline more than 45%, and groceries more than 19%, Marshall said.

    At the same time, real wages in the United States are not keeping with inflation, Marshall added.

    On March 9, Biden released his fiscal year 2024 budget proposal. The proposal projects $6.883 trillion in spending and $5.036 trillion in revenues, resulting in a deficit of $1.846.

    Biden’s budget comes as the US approaches its debt ceiling, risking a default on the country’s financial obligations if Congress does not raise its borrowing limit. Biden’s budget seeks to reduce the deficit by nearly $3 trillion in the next decade.

    Republican lawmakers have criticized Biden's proposed budget for not cutting government spending as part of its economic strategy.

    https://sputniknews.com/20230315/31trillion-national-debt-greatest-threat-to-us-not-russia-or-china-senator-1108433410.html

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Mar 22, 2023 7:17 pm

    Fed Hikes Rates 25bps, Maintains QT, Removes Hawkish Guidance, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge. 03.22.2023.

    A lot has changed since The Fed last met on February 1st and decided to hike 25bps. Between Powell's hawkish hearings with Congress and the dovish-inference of a global financial system crisis, the market's expectations for The Fed's actions today have swung wildly - but ironically, are basically unchanged since the Feb 1st meeting.

    At its most hawkish the market priced in a 75% chance of a 50bps hike (after Powell's hearings). That then collapsed to a 63% chance of a 'pause' by The Fed following the collapse of SVB and CS. The last week has seen expectations rise back to 80% or so of a 25bps hike...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-6

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    Post  AlfaT8 Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:30 pm



    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:11 pm

    US Economy Faces 'Stagflation' Thanks to Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes, by James Tweedie for Sputnikglobal. 04.19.2023.

    The share collapse of retailer Bed Bath & Beyond is just the latest financial shock to hit the US in recent months. Todd “Bubba” Horwitz, chief market strategist at BubbaTrading.com, and David Tawil, founder of ProChain Capital, warned it was a sign of deeper problems.

    The US is facing 'stagflation' thanks to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with more banks and other firms facing ruin.

    Hot on the heels of the fluidity crisis at Silicon Valley Bank, stock in 52-year-old homewares retailer Bed Bath & Beyond crashed from around £20 per share a year ago to just £0.34 on Tuesday, prompting fears of looming bankruptcy.

    Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz warned Sputnik that "we're in for a very, very rough ride here."

    The US is "on the verge of stagflation, which means nobody makes any money and nobody has any jobs," he stressed. "How are you going to eat?"

    "Inflation is well out of control, no matter what they say. The Federal Reserve is out of control," Horwitz said, because "you don't raise rates into a recession."

    The stock trader recalled the last period of stagflation in the late 1970s, when Jimmy Carter was president.

    "You had super high interest rates, you had a lack of employment and the people that were working weren't making enough money to survive," Horwitz said. Key producers like farmers "weren't making any money because they couldn't charge enough."

    The interest rate rise will have a knock-on effect on business as smaller banks find it harder to borrow from higher up the chain to grant credit to small firms.

    "What we've seen in this country over the last two years, coincidentally through President Biden's term, is the destruction of small business, small banks and entrepreneurship and capitalism," Horwitz charged. "When the cost of money is higher, you end up in a in a much bigger problem. And that's exactly what they built us."

    Smaller, regional banks will not get the same "bailout privilege" granted by the federal government to big financial institutions, he cautioned. "They're not too big to fail. So many of them will fail."

    David Tawil also told Sputnik that it was getting harder for businesses to borrow, because "the cost of credit or debt is going higher" with interest rates.

    "In addition, banks have been under assault recently because of everything that's happened with respect to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank," Tawil added. "regional banks have seen deposit outflows, and so they don't have as much money as they once did to go ahead and make make loans."

    The cryptocurrency expert put the Bed, Bath and Beyond crash down to "financial shenanigans," but noted that the firm was "once was the leader in its class" until it lost out to hypermarkets and online retail giants.

    "This sector has been cannibalized... by Wal-Mart, Target on the bricks and mortar side and then on the e-commerce side by the likes of Amazon," Tawil said. "They've been getting beaten up by much bigger, much more well-capitalized businesses that were profitable for a long time."

    https://sputnikglobe.com/20230419/us-economy-faces-stagflation-thanks-to-federal-reserve-interest-rate-hikes-1109654900.html

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    Post  Hole Sun Apr 23, 2023 10:21 pm

    US Economy Thread - Page 8 Fubkhe10

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    Post  Kiko Thu Apr 27, 2023 10:57 am

    Wait till Wall Street hears about this!

    Pranksters Vovan and Lexus played the head of the US Federal Reserve Powell, 04.27.2023.

    Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexei Stolyarov (Lexus) spoke with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on behalf of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The full video was published on Rutube video hosting on April 27.

    Powell started the conversation by talking about high inflation in the US, which could be devastating to the global economy.

    “We are faced with the problem of high inflation: rising food costs, energy costs, and also just disruption of supply chains and disruption of the entire world order that has existed for so many years. China reopening will have a positive impact on global growth. This may put additional pressure on inflation, but we will only be able to find out in the future. I know that this will not help Ukraine,” he said.

    The head of the Fed told how the US will deal with this. According to him, we should expect a key rate hike of 50 basis points.

    “Last year, we raised our key rate quite a lot to slow down the growth of the US economy and reduce inflation. We are on the right track towards our 2% target. A lot depends on what is happening in Ukraine, what will happen in Russia, with energy resources and with the opening of China. We've raised rates quite a bit and the market is already pricing in two increases of 25 basis points. We will analyze after we make these two raises. And let’s say whether it’s worth raising more,” he said.

    Powell noted that Western sanctions against Russia did not work, and paid tribute to the chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina.

    “The Russians managed to avoid the most severe consequences of the sanctions. We all know the head of the Central Bank of Russia, she is quite capable. I would be surprised if she even supported the "military operation" from the beginning. But she's pretty good at her job. She is extremely capable and very knowledgeable and smart,” Powell said.

    According to him, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the government of the country were able to cope with the sanctions pressure thanks to the sale of oil to new markets.

    “Nabiullina will do everything so that the Russians avoid sanctions as much as possible. While we still think sanctions are hurting, not as much as we hoped. This is the work of the Central Bank and the government. Obviously they are doing everything they can to sell their oil to the Chinese and Indians. And they buy it. We have imposed sanctions almost everywhere we could reach, but again they are doing everything possible to avoid them,” said the head of the Fed.

    He also acknowledged that the countries of Eastern Europe were seriously affected by the sanctions, while the United States avoided the negative effect.

    “We have our own energy resources. It is clear that these are Eastern European countries, this is Poland - those that are close to Ukraine. I know that Ukraine is suffering, we all see what is happening. People like me want to help, but I have limited options in my position,” Powell said.

    At the same time, he admitted that a recession could begin in the US economy. As signs of this, he called the weakening of the labor market, the decline in wage growth, the reduction in the labor force.

    “Most forecasts say that the US economy will grow, but at a fairly low level. Growth less than 1%. But a recession is just as likely as very slow growth. When growth is slow, any negative event - a new strain of coronavirus, an event in Ukraine - can send the US economy into recession, " admitted the head of the Fed.

    Powell also told his interlocutor how the US financial system works and how the country's public debt is formed.

    "We are the only large country that has such a system. Congress votes to spend money, and then we spend more money than we get. So we have to borrow to finance approved spending. But at the same time, we did not vote for the approval of debt financing. When you're running a deficit, you literally have no money to spend if you can't borrow more. There is a battle going on over what needs to be done to raise the debt ceiling,” the Fed chief explained.

    He noted that the vote on this issue will take place in June 2023.

    "One political party is trying to use its influence to dictate to another political party what fiscal policy to pursue. In other words, they want to ensure cost reductions. So this confrontation is taking place in the US system, ”summed up the head of the Fed.

    Powell also hinted that Ukraine could become financially dependent on the United States because of the country's support.

    "We have a printing press, but we keep it in the basement. Maybe we'll have a Federal Reserve Bank in Kyiv. I know that you will depend on the help of the West and the United States, and I cannot control this, ” said the head of the Fed.

    Earlier, on April 6, Vovan and Lexus spoke with former French President Francois Hollande on behalf of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

    https://iz.ru/1504848/2023-04-27/prankery-vovan-i-leksus-razygrali-glavu-frs-ssha-pauella

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:02 pm

    Valor Econômico Brazilian outlet: Fed raises U.S. interest rate by 0.25 point to highest level in 22 years. 07.26.2023.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank) raised its benchmark interest rate, the Fed Fund Rate, by 0,25 percentage point on Wednesday, to the range between 5,25% and 5,5% per year. That's the highest level of interest in the U.S. in 22 years.

    The decision came in line with what analysts had expected and what the U.S. interest futures market was pointing to. Many expect this to be the last interest rate hike of the current monetary tightening cycle.

    Yandex Translate from Portuguese.

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    Post  AlfaT8 Thu Jul 27, 2023 6:22 pm

    Kiko wrote:Valor Econômico Brazilian outlet: Fed raises U.S. interest rate by 0.25 point to highest level in 22 years. 07.26.2023.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank) raised its benchmark interest rate, the Fed Fund Rate, by 0,25 percentage point on Wednesday, to the range between 5,25% and 5,5% per year. That's the highest level of interest in the U.S. in 22 years.

    The decision came in line with what analysts had expected and what the U.S. interest futures market was pointing to. Many expect this to be the last interest rate hike of the current monetary tightening cycle.

    Yandex Translate from Portuguese.

    They are still pretending to fight inflation. Rolling Eyes

    ShadowStats shows that inflation is around 12% and its only 12 thanks to Government manipulation of the commodities market.
    Nevertheless, ~12% is still around the 1970s inflation level, and this time there is no Paul Volcker to save them from it.

    Back then, in order to fight the inflation, Volcker they raised the interest rate to 20%, yes, that's right, double digit interest rates.

    The reason this isn't going to happen again is because America debt is too far gone this time, the FED cannot raise interest rates beyond 5.5%, ergo the battle against inflation is lost
    The only possible way out is for the Gov. to stop printing and cut spending, which in effect means the end of the welfare state and internationally the general decline of the American empire.

    As many of you know, the American elites are as up their own ass with the American economy as they are with the Russian economy, meaning their belief that the Empire will never fall and that the Russian economy being a gas-station economy that can be flattened in a fortnight.

    The latter has already been proven catastrophically wrong, and soon the former will follow suite. Twisted Evil

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    Post  AlfaT8 Sun Jul 30, 2023 4:49 am

    Some interesting info about Western arms production capabilities.
    I was honestly surprised they aired this.

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    Post  kvs Sun Jul 30, 2023 5:21 am

    The US won its fight with inflation in the 1980s due to offshoring. Flooding the market with cheaper imported goods depressed the prices.
    It also achieved another important objective, and that was suppressing demand by removing highly paid jobs. People got shunted off
    into the service sector which including retail for the imported junk.

    I recall Turdope's alleged daddy (he looks nothing like Justin) making TV announcements about wage increase caps to fight inflation.
    What is more effective than to remove those jobs altogether.

    Volcker achieved the early 1980s recession but it was not painful enough to produce structural changes.

    The problem with high interest rates as a panacea for inflation is that they feed back into it. Unless the rates trigger a recession
    (by causing companies to reduce their activity including layoffs), they cannot suppress consumer demand. They can't suppress the
    all-important merchant pressure on prices. The merchants will keep on wanting higher and higher prices and will not stop just because
    borrowing is more expensive. High rates are more effective at suppressing real estate since mortgages are not optional. For most
    consumer goods they are not even a factor and this can include "big ticket" items since not everyone is a pauper that needs to borrow
    to buy a washing machine. Of course, instant offshoring of jobs would crash the economy, but that is not how it was implemented.

    The globalist offshoring racket satisfied the merchants since the overall retail prices could be kept fixed or even fall, but the utter
    cheapness of the imported goods enabled more creaming.

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    Post  AlfaT8 Sun Jul 30, 2023 5:38 am

    kvs wrote:The US won its fight with inflation in the 1980s due to offshoring.   Flooding the market with cheaper imported goods depressed the prices.
    It also achieved another important objective, and that was suppressing demand by removing highly paid jobs.  People got shunted off
    into the service sector which including retail for the imported junk.

    From what i have heard, moving the U.S dollar off the gold standard caused most of the inflation mess, so tying the dollar to black-gold was what stabilized the situation.

    Anyway, that era is gone, and now the dollar has nothing to latch onto, it's pretty much over.

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    Post  kvs Sun Oct 01, 2023 5:47 pm



    The free Pancho Villa dollar printing lunch is running into the reef of reality. You can't print up a skilled workforce, especially when you
    deliberately dumb down the education system for social engineering.

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