Syrian War: News #12

KiloGolf wrote:.......

I agree with all these points. And say that Russia should work on dismantling Idlibistan and then call it a day in that war.

Exactly. Idlibistan will take some time given the condition of SAA but that is nothing new. At some point it will be finished.

After that they will end up with government and Kurdish zones but that is when Russian military will park their asses on the sunny beaches of Latakia and politicians and diplomats will get around to earning their paycheck.

ATLASCUB wrote:Russian optimal position was months ago before the large American troop deployment to "retake Raqqa". Everything else since then have been largely setbacks - on all fronts. Lets not kid ourselves by playing a game of perspectives here. A "before and after" analysis from that juncture is better.

no doubt that now US is going to partition part of Syria. Best to hope for is Russia and Syria to retake as much as they can leading up to Raqqa and then start rebuilding their end while eventually building a fence or wall or something. Sucks but those ceasefires were what did it...

And here we are, sat here exchanging armchair general opinions, meanwhile SAA is pulling Easter surprise

Peto Lucem‏ @PetoLucem  5m5 minutes ago
#BREAKING: Pro-government forces liberate strategic town of #Souran in northern #Hama https://aml.ink/5sbuW  via @thearabsource

PS. Christos Anesti!

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:.......

I agree with all these points. And say that Russia should work on dismantling Idlibistan and then call it a day in that war.

Exactly. Idlibistan will take some time given the condition of SAA but that is nothing new. At some point it will be finished.

After that they will end up with government and Kurdish zones but that is when Russian military will park their asses on the sunny beaches of Latakia and politicians and diplomats will get around to earning their paycheck.

what is important for Russia is Syria keeping its coasts. Iran on other hand loses out big time with their loss of the eastern Syria.

Wonder if Russia and US had this planned before.

And here we are, sat here exchanging armchair general opinions, meanwhile SAA is pulling Easter surprise

^^^ I was just about to post that same thing hahaha

Nice job, keep at it SAA


Ваистину Воскресе!

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:.......

I agree with all these points. And say that Russia should work on dismantling Idlibistan and then call it a day in that war.

Exactly. Idlibistan will take some time given the condition of SAA but that is nothing new. At some point it will be finished.

After that they will end up with government and Kurdish zones but that is when Russian military will park their asses on the sunny beaches of Latakia and politicians and diplomats will get around to earning their paycheck.

what is important for Russia is Syria keeping its coasts. Iran on other hand loses out big time with their loss of the eastern Syria.

Wonder if Russia and US had this planned before.

Iran is fine atm. If they actually had serious worries, Iran would support with troops on the ground. The Kurdish issue, while painful for all players in the region (except Israel and the U.S) is something that will be dealt with at a later date. What will actually worry the Iranians is the FSA taking over Damascus. Borders in this region come and ago. As soon as the geopolitical balance of power in the world changes and by extension the power in that region expect shenanigans and border re-drawing to happen again. As long as the Kurds don't get their own independent, internationally recognized state they're meat waiting to be cooked at a later date. Iran shouldn't be underestimated here. Iran has shown that soft power by Israel and Saudi Arabia does not exist in the region. Their retort is force and chaos. Iranians working up Iraq on the other hand was genius. The brutes in the region are scared, and by extension the brute master U.S.A.

KiloGolf wrote:There is nothing inherently superior in a small gunboat with x8 VLS cells that has little impact on the battlefield and a proper destroyer wrecking an entire airbase.

Then you should advise of that US OPNAV and its main Doctrine's conceivers

All of them firmly believe that what they name a flottilla with "distributed lethality" - small surface combatants armed with long range weaponry capable to easily disperse and greatly complicate targeting cycle and EW tasks of advanced opponents - would be several times more flexible and ,above all, survivable against very advanced opponents in comparison with actual force structure on the basis of CVBG

Obviously US Navy has not even thinked to be capable to put a 2500 km capable missile (even not taking into account that no western-built navy launched cruise missile can boast a range even only near to that) in something so small as a 950 tons пр. 21631 - that could execute an attack literally even from a small river or lake ,totally outside the boundary of enemy maritime ISR area control - ; US Navy would declare a "game changing" achievement even only manage to add a reduced performance TLAM capability to a 3500 tons LCS.

KiloGolf wrote:I don't disagree that Trump's TLAM fireworks were also (if not mainly) for internal consumption. But he brushed everyone on the side in the process and came out on top.

This is proper four-dimensional chess in-progress, with Putin sitting on sidelines baffled.

Some truth in that. The strike did work some magic in terms of at least temporarily mollifying Trump's domestic critics, especially the 'crats. Which serves to help point out how truly awful they are. Tiny-Hands' stated intention of lowering tensions between the two premier nuclear powers was probably the best aspect of his campaign, and the one the 'crats have most fervently sought to sabotage. It just figures.

So, the missile strike did have efficacy in that regard. However, Brian Williams' on-air wargasm not withstanding, the strike presented to the world the dismaying sight of big flaccid dong, openly mocked by those it was presumably meant to most impress. MOAB was at least in part an effort to vacuum-fluff that embarrassment.

It's official, whole rebel offensive was for nothing

The suicide pickup bomb arriving and blowing the cameraman off his feet, lucky to have lived, if he did.

The 'Nimr' Tiger‏ @Souria4Syrians 7h7 hours ago

The 'Nimr' Tiger Retweeted The 'Nimr' Tiger

Blue truck is likely the SVBIED, came from the heart of rebel territory. Parked next to gathering of children who were lured there earlier

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/853571701958901764

PapaDragon wrote:It's official, whole rebel offensive was for nothing

Al lataminah, Russians are bombarding this city every day for last 30 days. And it's just getting more intense from day to day..
Jihadists regret starting the North Hama offensive as they lose all their gains and their corpses pile up






underground rat holes in Al lataminah



looks like Al lataminah is a key for this front.

If the SAA screw the Hama counter-offensive up I'm done with the conflict.

Is that an ex SyAA bunker complex of one the terrorists have constructed themselves?

Given that was back in February, wonder what it looks like now?

JohninMK wrote:Is that an ex SyAA bunker complex of one the terrorists have constructed themselves?

Expanded by rebels, second photo constructed by them.

First airstrike(first ever in Syria) of RuAF in 2015. Place is still in operational conditions, and expanded. Air strike traces visible on surface.


one more airstrike on same place. With BETAB-500



Location - https://www.terraserver.com/view?utf8=%E2%9C%93&search_text=&searchLat=&searchLng=&lat=35.308699&lng=36.621289&bbox=¢er=

before/after
location

Thanks, they certainly put a lot of work into that complex. It must have a pretty important function for them.

HD map:

What complicates the battle for Russia , is that they need to fight under the rules setup
by the west , that they dont follow.

1)Russia can't use Chemical weapons
2)Russia can't use biological weapons
3)Terrorist hides behind civilians
4)Russia can't bomb mosques
5)Russia needs to fight clean so the west don't accuse it of
bombing civilians.
6)Russia can't torch the entire cities rebels controls with incendiary bombs.
7)Russia can't use nukes.

With incendiary bombs it will be easy ,very easy to defeat the rebels ,
even if they hide. The smoke will kill them. and even if they go underground they
will die.

Russia even have chemicals weapons that cause deep sleep and people do not wake
up again . So no infrastructure damaged. But always the civilian issue is a problem.
What complicates even more things is that many of this civilians support the terrorist ,
just last week the Syrian army ,arrested a suicide bomber , a women with a bomb,
that she was intending to detonate , in a school in homs with 500 children.

So even if jihadist defeated ,it will be a major challenge , even more difficult ,to
identify terrorist accomplices . Look at the attack on Russia St Petersburg. Done
by a terrorist who legally enter in Russia. So Syria will be a failed state ,even if they
win all the battles , because it will be impossible to identify all the terrorist supporters
withing Syrian population. The same Syrian army told a story ,in one of their videos in
youtube , about how the terrorist use womens to setup traps to their soldiers. There
was for example a women who offered a Syrian general transportation to his house ,
but when traveling there ,he was ambush . and arrested and later cut in pieces by the
terrorist. the women later was arrested but not before she killed many that way.
This is why Russia is forced to at the same time ,they bomb terrorist , also create
rehabilitation centers for terrorist who want to return to civilian life. Kadirov is one
example of a former terrorist who accepted Russia government amnesty. In short
I dont see a future for Syria unless its neighboring nations stop aiding
terror groups. The good news however ,that Russia is earning an enormous invaluable
experience in Syria how to fight Terror organizations armed ,trained and supplied by
NATO. So this will significantly help Russia not only to test their weapons ,and improve
them ,but also develop new ones. and new tactics . To fight NATO trained terror fighters.

KiloGolf wrote:This is proper four-dimensional chess in-progress, with Putin sitting on sidelines baffled.

The people buying into the 4D chess meme are generally people who support the man rather than the principles he stood for. Thinking that the God Emperor is playing some sort of 3475962D Jumanji is all well and good, until you consider things in realpolitik. The reality is that Trump's strike of 59 TLAMs was not only a physical action in diametric contrast to what was being said only days earlier (and hence foreign relations/credibility suicide), but also appeasement to the domestic elements, the chicken-hawks, the neo-cons etc. When Trump bemoaned the deaths of "beautiful babies" while his daughter tearfully pleaded for some sort of action against the ebil regime, he signaled that he was indeed capable of being swayed by both the media and the so-called "Deep State" elements. The MSM also learnt some valuable information: that playing the "muh Russia" card long enough and loud enough, will garner them results. Appeasement generally results in aggression, delaying the inevitable by appealing to the "swamp" only increases the fallout (excuse the pun) of later forced decisions.  They're off his back for now, but directly after the strikes certain outlets were already talking about whether it was coordinated with the Russians. Stumping the Trump apparently only requires certain insinuations.

The launch of 59 cruise missiles was not decisive, it was erratic, and erratic behaviour in front of the Chinese is not particularly efficient at achieving respect, especially from such historically long-term players as they are.
The Nork situation is only a manifestation of the cooling of Sino-N.K. relations, which has been in progress since Kim Jong-il. Purges have systematically culled pro-Chinese assets in the higher echelons of Nork government, and Chinese sentiment has grown increasingly tired of this behaviour. This is detailed by the Witch herself in this 2016 Wikileaks release: https://wikileaks.com/podesta-emails/emailid/11011
If there were to be a decapitation of Nork state then using Western forces to accomplish that goal, while preparing your own troops in a bid to partition the country once the deed is done (in the name of human rights, refugees, the beautiful babies etc.) is exactly the sort of response I would expect from a long-game adept China. That is of course if Trump actually goes through with it, which, as PapaDragon notes, is highly unlikely.

Understanding the long-term is imperative to understanding the current state of geopolitics, and the reality is that the erratic actions of the US in the past few weeks have been short sighted approaches with very little “real” gain. The same applies to the usage of hardware in Syria, which while you knock the VKS deployment for an ineffective response, you do not stop to consider that there may have never even been a response, aside from passive measures in the form of EW. This is, in my opinion, more about preserving an element of enigma when it comes to Russian AD capabilities rather than using them in response to what was already a rather ineffectual and kneejerk action (although opinions seem to be divided on that, I maintain Al-Sharyat was hardly trashed, as sorties were flown the next day). Given the Russian UAV response I would assume the >>>few<<< Russian groudcrew that were actually still at Al-Sharyat had plenty of warning to keep clear of the AB until the grandiose US pigeon had finished shitting on the 4D chess board.
The last thing anyone at this point is, is baffled (this would include Uncle Vova, in my opinion, although I am biased). Slightly perturbed by the apparently irrational actions of a wild US, but still comfortably holding the cards, taking names and making gains.

TL;DR: The game goes on, still bound by the laws of the material world, and not exactly inter-dimensional as of yet.

There looks to be another wild card now in play, greater freedom of action by lower layers of the US Military command chain, as evidenced by Trump apparently having no say in the MOAB drop.

An example of this could well be the recent arrival in Aqaba of a very large US military Ro-Ro transport ship believed to be carrying hundreds of vehicles and armour.

We should I think be expecting a major assault north from the Jordan border at any moment, along similar lines to the SDF, now being reinforced with lots of new US/French/Saudi 'gear', south from Kobani. All part of the 'cut off the east of Syria' plan, to be implemented before the SyAA can make any progress towards Raqqa let alone Deir.

We are going to see a lot more of this kind of SF action methinks, a lot more.

The Air Force of the US-led international coalition in Syria landed troops near the eastern city of Deir Ez-Zor to carry out a targeted operation against the Daesh terrorist organization, local media reported on Monday.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – According to the Sky News Arabia broadcaster, the troops were airdropped from coalition helicopters, and targeted Daesh military supply points and arms storehouses to the east of the city. The media added that the troops left the area some 20 minutes after the landing, but did not specify the countries taking part in the operation.

Russian reporters attacked by IS drone in Deir Ez Zor.





https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9jor_tWsAAx8IQ.jpg

Vann7 wrote:
With incendiary bombs it will be easy ,very easy to defeat the rebels ,
even if they hide. The smoke will kill them. and even if they go underground they
will die.

Not realy...






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dOF5ojxJAI
Al-Lataminah, bombardment continue today.

Looks like Mother and Father of All Bombs have some babies running around...