AMCXXL wrote:Only remember 2015:
According to a source from Kommersant in the military department, the GPO-2020 provided for the purchase of 52 T-50. "We even wrote a schedule of deliveries," Kommersant source said. "In the period 2016-2018, the Russian Air Force was to receive eight fighters per year, and in 2019-2020 - already 14 aircraft of this type." These plans were feasible, he believes, if there were no economic difficulties that arose in the country: "There is an understanding that, first of all, we will sign a contract for the T-50 squadron (12 units - Kommersant). they are still necessary and how much we can afford. " The UAC did not comment on this information
THe SAP 2020 was modified from 52 to 12 , and it seems this is the number to order now
The expected "52" in 5 years was supossed by some media/people for next SAP 2025 (supossed , not announced)
Later the SAP was modificated until 2027.and that affected all the programs, not just the Su-57.
There was quite crisis and inflation in Russia since 2015 and also the oil fell a lot 2-3 years ago, so the defense budget for purchases was cut in an important part (30% ??)
When someone talks about "buying airplanes" like the one who buys bananas, it's better to stop reading, it's not serious
We have to consider all the factors.
First, Putin says clearly about military procurement: first replace , later , slow growth
In the first part, Su-35 and Su-30 was chosen for replace soviet airplanes
Some people says the that the pace of purchases is low or expect more planes each year. I said here many times that a squadron (approximately) a year was enough to replace the Soviet models not modernized in 2020 or little more, and all the other flankes in 2025 or a little more, seems that they have adjusted it for 2027
To produce a third figther while Su-35 and Su-30 are producing, does not sound very reasonable, but has been announced many times and all people beleive in that.
However it is clear Su-57 is still green. To produce more with the program unfinished has not sense , and Russia is not in a hurry now, if you compare the situation of the Air Force with 2012, it is clearly much better
In 2020 or little more, about all soviet fighters will be replaced or modernized, as initially was planned in SAP 2011-2020
Also people usually think only over airplanes , but forgets who is piloting them: forming a pilot, an officer, is a 5-year career in a university or military academy. It is not a matter of money or resources.
Since you make the decision to train more pilots to expand the Air Force until you have novice pilots, spend at least 5 years and some more to acquire experience.
The military academies were reformed several years ago and the fruits will be seen from 2020
Russia has a problema with the age of pilots and you can not go to an employment office to hire someone to pilot a combat plane
The Su-57 does noy replace to any airplane and will be based in closed bases that need overhaul
Some airbases (Kursk, Besovets, Astrakhan) have been overhauled, other are next to conclude the repairs (Chkalovsk, Vorónezh...) but for the momento there are not notice about other bases that could receive Su-57 , like the closed in 2009 (Dorokhovo, Loneynodye Pole, etc...). so RuAF does not expect to have new regiment of Su-57 in next 2-3-4 years
Leaving aside the specific technical problems, of which we do not have data enough as it is logical, what is clear that a totally new plane must give problems, as happened with the F-22 and the F-35 and the Russians does not seem that have a lot of faith in "stealth", they are not going to make the mistake of making a large scale something yet not finished. The flankers have been a safe bet.
you're in a great hurry with the S-500
The S-400 is still being received and by 2020 half of the AA missiles will be S-400. Is it really necessary in S-500 in 2020? Can not wait for 2025? Syria has just shot down an F-16 with an S-150 or S-200
Russia does not need to have 4 fleets either. the Baltic and the Black are lagoons.
The expenditure on armaments must be reasonable. Russia has many problems of poverty, demographics, etc ...
What do you mean that the defence budget was cut by 30%? As Miketheterrible said, that's isn't true? It was maybe cut by a few percent. Or are you talking about its dollar value or something?
The current pace of (especially) Su-30 and Su-34 is certainly not slow, that isn't a problem.
And it's true that S-500 is like the least of their problems, just listed it with the others. Because I don't think it's actually going to replace S-400s and the program seems to be very ambitious. But what is the situation with S-350?
But if the procurement budget wasn't cut, it raises some other questions. Back when the previous/current (the 2010-20 one, or whatever) SAP was devised, they surely allocated some of that 24 trillion roubles to purchase some Su-57s, in fact 50-60 of them? So if the budget wasn't considerably cut, where did that money go? It's not like they ordered additional Su-30/34/35s, right?