PAK-FA, T-50: News #4

http://vpk.name/news/174078_postavki_istrebitelya_pyatogo_pokoleniya_t50_v_voiska_mogut_nachatsya_v_2018_g.html

It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

miketheterrible wrote:http://vpk.name/news/174078_postavki_istrebitelya_pyatogo_pokoleniya_t50_v_voiska_mogut_nachatsya_v_2018_g.html

It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

So I guess the J-20 will get commissioned sooner..,

Project Canada wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://vpk.name/news/174078_postavki_istrebitelya_pyatogo_pokoleniya_t50_v_voiska_mogut_nachatsya_v_2018_g.html

It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

So I guess the J-20 will get commissioned sooner..,

Does that matter to Russia? I don't think so.

The conservative approach to safety is the superior one.

kvs wrote:

Project Canada wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://vpk.name/news/174078_postavki_istrebitelya_pyatogo_pokoleniya_t50_v_voiska_mogut_nachatsya_v_2018_g.html

It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

So I guess the J-20 will get commissioned sooner..,

Does that matter to Russia?  I don't think so.  

The conservative approach to safety is the superior one.  

Let's say that this is not a field and track run.
Both of them have others very modern planes in full scale construction A.T.M. so an year before and after doesn't make such a difference as for now.

Project Canada wrote:[quote=

It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

Project Canada wrote:So I guess the J-20 will get commissioned sooner..,

Depends on who's definition of commission we use.

You don't find it a little odd that both the US and Russia have had long grueling development times for their flagship jets ? And China pops one out in less than half the time ?

kvs wrote:

Project Canada wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:
It is interesting to note that they are going to keep orders low and mostly keep PAK FA for testing purposes only till they hammer out all glitches and issues before making any serious orders on it.

So PAK FA may stay experimental for quite some time to come.

So I guess the J-20 will get commissioned sooner..,

Does that matter to Russia?  I don't think so.  

The conservative approach to safety is the superior one.  

China is not doing itself any favors by fast tracking the supposed commissioning of the J 20. I guess it is just grand standing to the US and India. I just don't believe it.

Project 718, (J 20) won the PLAAF endorsement following a 2008 competition. 2008 to 2016 is 8 years

1991, Secretary of the USAF Donald Rice announced the YF-22 as the winner of the ATF competition. 91 to 2005 is 14 years. It was announced in December of 2005 too so that's almost another year right there.

in 2002, Sukhoi was selected as the winner of the PAK FA competition. Pak Fa is in its 14th year now. And the jet is projected to be in service by 2017.

So if we compare to the Raptor, if the Pak Fa enters service in/around 2017, development time will have been similar. Give or take 12 months difference.

I don't think those dates are comparable. The Chinese program actually started in the 90s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-XX
They have simply catched up. It's the same thing with the economy. In nominal terms, they were nowhere near top 3 only 15 years ago. Economic power -> military power, it's very simple. China has the largest economy in the world by PPP and the second largest military budget. It makes perfect sense.

Still, a few years to one way or another... that doesn't matter too much. But it's clear that both T-50 and J-20 will enter service around the same timeframe. J-20 seems to be ready (of course, without the final engines, but at this stage PAK-FA is no different) and in higher numbers, because China has more funding.

Also, one thing that Russia-bashers don't seem to get is that these potential "delays" are not a huge deal. Russia was always planning to acquire around 200-250 PAK-FAs, right? And that by mid-2030s? So who cares if they have 12 instead of 50+ by 2020? Order 12-16 aircraft per year on average after 2020 and you'll have more 200 in 20 years. It was never going to be Russia's F-35.

Indeed. The PAK-FA is till waiting for its proper engine. After it gets it, there will have to be yet another testing period
to see if the frame and engine accommodate each other. Date fags can jump around like chimps all they want.

Kimppis wrote:I don't think those dates are comparable. The Chinese program actually started in the 90s.
They have simply catched up. It's the same thing with the economy. In nominal terms, they were nowhere near top 3 only 15 years ago. Economic power -> military power, it's very simple. China has the largest economy in the world by PPP and the second largest military budget. It makes perfect sense.

 

I really do believe that the J 20 is the Mig 1.44 airframe. But it was the Russians doing the lag work on what would become the J 20 in the 90's. So how do we fit that in ? China's J 20 is the outlier date wise. The Raptor and the Pak Fa are long slogs

Every country has its specialties. Russia has always been an aviation superpower.  China is not. I don't think that this is an overly nationalist thing to say.  Most of their creations are shameless copies of Russian designs. And they still plan on using Russian engines.

kvs wrote:Indeed.  The PAK-FA is till waiting for its proper engine.   After it gets it, there will have to be yet another testing period
to see if the frame and engine accommodate each other.    Date fags can jump around like chimps all they want.

The new engine testing will be mostly about the engine. The airframe is already designed to accommodate all the parameters of the new engine.

There is Russian time built into the J 20. Even the US state dept implied that there was a connection between the J 20 and Mig 1.44.

The Pak Fa was awarded in 2002. So it is around this time frame , the Mig 1.44 was available. If we assume that China started from there, a commissioning date of 2016 gives it a 13 year development.

It is also telling that the J 20 jet was officially awarded soon after India inked the deal for the FGFA program with Russia. And this was a year or so after China claims that the jet was tendered and picked. I somehow doubt it. They were working on the Mig 1.44/J 20 since 03 and it was only after the FGFA contact was signed that they went full bore with the J 20 project. That explains the missing 5+ years of development for the J 20.

It also explains why there wasn't even a competing aircraft with the J 20. They say that there was a J 14 competing. It was dressed up as a typical competition but it wasn't.

kvs wrote:Date fags can jump around like chimps all they want.

nicely said...

Comment bmpd. Yuri Borisov's words are a confirmation of the fact that the actual purchase of serial fighter PAK-FA for Russian Air Force postponed beyond 2020. Currently, the known data, are contracted only the first 12 series (actually pre-production) fighter T-50S, which shall be made at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aviation plant from 2017 to 2020. However, in fact, probably will start to arrive in the VKS not earlier from 2019 (which is confirmed by the phrase of Yuri Borisov). During the years 2017-2018 KnAAZ must pass the last three experimental flight model T-50 (T-50-9 aircraft, T-T-50-10 and 50-11).

Full-scale mass production of T-50, probably will not begin until 2021 (and maybe even years 2025-2026) and in the guise of a "second stage" with a new engine, "article 30". Perhaps it is the engine ready "article 30" and will depend on the beginning of a real serial production of T-50.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2416867.html

George1 wrote:Comment bmpd. Yuri Borisov's words are a confirmation of the fact that the actual purchase of serial fighter PAK-FA for Russian Air Force postponed beyond 2020. Currently, the known data, are contracted only the first 12 series (actually pre-production) fighter T-50S, which shall be made at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aviation plant from 2017 to 2020. However, in fact, probably will start to arrive in the VKS not earlier from 2019 (which is confirmed by the phrase of Yuri Borisov). During the years 2017-2018 KnAAZ must pass the last three experimental flight model T-50 (T-50-9 aircraft, T-T-50-10 and 50-11).

Full-scale mass production of T-50, probably will not begin until 2021 (and maybe even years 2025-2026) and in the guise of a "second stage" with a new engine, "article 30". Perhaps it is the engine ready "article 30" and will depend on the beginning of a real serial production of T-50.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2416867.html

It seems me that hw former previsions were excessively optimistical, this is just a bit too pessimistic instead.
Surely it won't take two years to complete three prototypes and russian doesn't do LRIP at all: they like in this case made a first serial pilot serIES for training and OCU unit and stops production until the tests are completed.

GarryB wrote:Well if we are going to talk about engines lets compare with the F-14... the A model had the same crap engines the F-111 had and their problems resulted in the crashes of quite a few F-14A aircraft.

First flight of the F-14A was about the end of 1970 and the F-14D with decent engines... was delivered into service in the early 1990s...

The facts of the matter are that even with the current engines the PAK FA is a superior fighter to the F-22 and the F-35 mainly due to its more mature TVC.

With new more powerful engines it will be even better.

The extra power will likely have a significant effect on a ship based model but not that significant to the land based model where it can simply use slightly more runway.

Yes and with the current engine they won't need more delays to put Pak Fa in service as they are already used on Su-35. They can start production now and then upgrade them with new engines. Even if they don't achieve to develop it they still have another engine for it, not the case of F-35.

The f-35 has an all new engine, which can't supercruise, and make the R&D much expensive than starting from an engine you have produced.

J-20 is not for export and so won't be a threat to pak fa for export even if it's in service next year. F-35's buyers have not realy the choice to buy another Aircraft... US rules... and they won't buy as much as they said. For exemple european countries can't send 2-3 F-16 in Syria becaus of money, so their wishes of buying tens of F-35 is bullshit. And with Trump as a ne president, it's likely the 1000 bllion$ F-35 program will be stoped.

This delay looks more like official phrasing of real situation rather than delay at all.

12 test frames are old news and they probably figured out that it makes more sense to just wait for new engines and start straight away with fresh engines on serial frames rather than going with ''transitional'' model with old ones.

Also they would prefer to avoid fiasco like one with rushed purchases of Su-35 that needed loads of addition repairs.

With their level of of AA systems and combined with Su-30/35 they are in less of a hurry than militaries with different air doctrine and AA systems.

This is where Syria comes into play again (what a difference one tiny war makes)

Primary fighter platform for Russia's potential enemies in near-peer scenario will be F-35. F-22 is not in production anymore and there are fewer of them than F-35 will be.

F-35 only real advantage over Su-30/35 is low radar signature. That is all. Problem is that if VKS manages to find a workaround for that then situation will drastically shift.

And today you have air-base in Latakia that is loaded with most advanced radars in Russia's inventory and A-50 and soon A-100 flying around.

To the North you have Turkey and to the South you have Israel. Both users of F-35 and those planes will be flying every single time trough thick radar coverage of VKS.  

Now if our guys were able to crack F-117 radar signature in less than 4 days using 60's era equipment and while being subjected to Exterminatus, then VKS guys operating latest toys in peace and quiet with no time limit have even better odds of figuring out how to detect F-35 at leisurely pace.

Once you figure out how to do that and you tweak Flankers to detect F-35s then you managed to make 4th and 5th generation aircraft fit into same bracket.

And that is interesting prospect indeed. Syria might prove to be very useful endeavor.

One F-35 was already send to Israeli after the S-400 came there so there is a big probability that they tried to detect it with Moskva radars and S-400 radars. Idem for F-22 which was send in Syria.

Israel will get all its F-35 because uncle Sam pay for them. I'm not sure Turkey will get them soon maybe in 5 years. And since the failed military coup, Erdogan doesn't give a shit about usa.

Russia has just one aibase in Syria and in a war it will be destroy by cruise missiles. A salvo of low flying missiles will go through one S-400 system. So they won't put Pak Fa their. It's useless. It's bettter to put them in the South of russia near the border with turkey.

It's not just about one. Israel will have plenty soon and I don't think they will keep them in hangars 24/7. Turkey is just bonus.

And I really don't think that Israelis care whether Russia is able to detect F-35 or not since Russia and Israel will not be going after each other. They care about Iran, Egypt and others in the neighborhood detecting them. And Russia will not be giving out that intel because it would be something that would give their Flankers huge advantage.  

It's the golden goose and they will be keeping it for themselves if they get it. It will also be useful diplomatic tool for relations with Israel. I will not be surprised if they have joint military exercises several years from now when Syria settles. More opportunities for observation.

When Pentagon was picking up orders for F-35 there was no way they could even imagine that Russia will have such heavy radar coverage so close to two F-35 operators. It was back when myth of F-117's invisibility was still in full effect.

Had they known they would have opted for design with more than just one core feature. And stealth is wrong horse to bet on in air war as F-117 proved.  
At least F-22 still has good ordinance load and excellent speed, range and maneuverability to rely on should it lose advantage in stealth. F-35 has nothing left in that scenario.

Isos wrote:

GarryB wrote:Well if we are going to talk about engines lets compare with the F-14... the A model had the same crap engines the F-111 had and their problems resulted in the crashes of quite a few F-14A aircraft.

First flight of the F-14A was about the end of 1970 and the F-14D with decent engines... was delivered into service in the early 1990s...

The facts of the matter are that even with the current engines the PAK FA is a superior fighter to the F-22 and the F-35 mainly due to its more mature TVC.

With new more powerful engines it will be even better.

The extra power will likely have a significant effect on a ship based model but not that significant to the land based model where it can simply use slightly more runway.

Yes and with the current engine they won't need more delays to put Pak Fa in service as they are already used on Su-35. They can start production now and then upgrade them with new engines. Even if they don't achieve to develop it they still have another engine for it, not the case of F-35.

The f-35 has an all new engine, which can't supercruise, and make the R&D much expensive than starting from an engine you have produced.

J-20 is not for export and so won't be a threat to pak fa for export even if it's in service next year. F-35's buyers have not realy the choice to buy another Aircraft... US rules... and they won't buy as much as they said. For exemple european countries can't send 2-3 F-16 in Syria becaus of money, so their wishes of buying tens of F-35 is bullshit. And with Trump as a ne president, it's likely the 1000 bllion$ F-35 program will be stoped.

Trump and Lockheed are trying to lower the US costs per F 35 but it wouldn't surprise me if they are passing the buck onto the allies.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:What's the reason hat sukhoi chose less stealthy podded engines instead of going for a flat belly like the F-22 or MiG-1.44?

well theres the reason, podded engine gives you flexibility and upgrade potential, stealth aircraft has tight tolerances and in f-22 engines are integraqted into airframe thus fixed and intakes are fixed , so no way to upgrade untill end of service life, with podded engine you can change engine size or intakes somewhat and thus you can upgrade engines and swap them faster , russians knew they wouldnt have definitive engine ready so they used that method , so in 2017 117s engines , then 2020 izd30 engines ,then in 2030 some new engines , so all in all pak-fa will inch further away from f-22 over time etc...

Rmf wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:What's the reason hat sukhoi chose less stealthy podded engines instead of going for a flat belly like the F-22 or MiG-1.44?

well theres the reason, podded engine gives you flexibility and upgrade potential, stealth aircraft has tight tolerances and in f-22 engines are integraqted into airframe thus fixed and intakes are fixed , so no way to upgrade untill end of service life, with podded engine you can change engine size or intakes somewhat and thus you can upgrade engines and swap them faster , russians knew they wouldnt have definitive engine ready so they used that method , so in 2017 117s engines , then 2020 izd30 engines ,then in 2030 some new engines , so all in all pak-fa will inch further away from f-22 over time etc...

A disadvantage of the podded approach is that it does not create the same large size cavities for inboard weapons, particularly between the engines.

But then the latest news on series production could show that Moscow does not believe that stealth is of sufficient importance to the tasks that their aircraft have to perform when defending Russia that they are going to spend the money and actually make some. Maybe their analysis of the F-22's actual 'invisibility', now that they have been able to monitor it for quite a while with their array of radars, shows that stealth is of marginal benefit in a defensive scenario.

JohninMK wrote:................

But then the latest news on series production could show that Moscow does not believe that stealth is of sufficient importance to the tasks that their aircraft have to perform when defending Russia that they are going to spend the money and actually make some. Maybe their analysis of the F-22's actual 'invisibility', now that they have been able to monitor it for quite a while with their array of radars, shows that stealth is of marginal benefit in a defensive scenario.

My thinking as well. With surprise element gone it's not as effective as previously thought.

stealth deteriorate over time ,0,1m2 is best guess.

PapaDragon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:................

But then the latest news on series production could show that Moscow does not believe that stealth is of sufficient importance to the tasks that their aircraft have to perform when defending Russia that they are going to spend the money and actually make some. Maybe their analysis of the F-22's actual 'invisibility', now that they have been able to monitor it for quite a while with their array of radars, shows that stealth is of marginal benefit in a defensive scenario.

My thinking as well. With surprise element gone it's not as effective as previously thought.

Yup and Russia doesn't have the rapacious demand of the US MIC for profits either.