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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:29 pm

    Russia didn't want to give up the Baltic states or Ukraine or eastern europe, but didn't really get much of a choice in the matter then either.
    marcellogo
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    Post  marcellogo Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:22 am

    GarryB wrote:Russia didn't want to give up the Baltic states or Ukraine or eastern europe, but didn't really get much of a choice in the matter then either.

    SOVIET UNION didn't wanted to give up and it didn't gave them up, really, just dissolved itself.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:39 am

    What is now Belarus was/is the weak link in the border chain of the Russian Empire, USSR & the RF- all 3 major invasions from the West came across it. Controlling it gives Russia strategic depth, that's why in the last war every 4th resident there died in the guerilla war. 
    If Poland & therefore NATO gets to control it, that depth will shrink & cost many more lives in any future conventional war there. 
    [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buck_passing#:~:text="The buck stops here" is,ultimate responsibility for those decisions.]The buck stops here.[/url]
    George1
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    Post  George1 Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:07 am

    Russia launches Kavkaz-2020 drills

    Maneuvers Kavkaz 2020 (MoD)


    Last edited by George1 on Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:31 am; edited 1 time in total
    George1
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    Post  George1 Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:31 am

    Tank firing of paratroopers of the Novorossiysk mountain formation of the Airborne Forces during "Kavkaz-2020"


    Blocking the area of concentration of the conditional bandit formation in Abkhazia within the framework of the command and control exersize "Kavkaz-2020"


    The work of army aviation crews during Kavkaz-2020 command and control exersize


    Night defensive battle of mountain motorized riflemen of the Southern Military District in the framework of the Kavkaz-2020 command and control exersize


    Destruction of a convoy of a simulated enemy by the marines of the Caspian Flotilla at the Kavkaz-2020 command and control exersize




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    George1
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    Post  George1 Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:25 am

    The Kavkaz-2020 drills, running from September 21- 26, led by Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, are underway in Russia’s Southern Military District and in the Black and Caspian Seas. The exercise involves about 80,000 personnel, including officers from the Russian Emergencies Ministry and the Russian National Guard. Furthermore, this is a multinational endeavor which includes up to 1,000 servicemen from Armenia, Belarus, China, Myanmar and Pakistan. Representatives from Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Sri Lanka are participating as observers, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. In addition, Russia’s top brass said that roughly 250 tanks, up to 450 mechanized infantry fighting vehicles and APCs, as well as up to 200 artillery systems and multiple-launch rocket systems were set to be used in the exercise on firing grounds. About 12,900 troops are going to take part in activities in line with the 2011 Vienna Document of the Negotiations on Confidence-and Security-Building Measures.

    The main episode of the Kavkaz-2020 command and control system exercise at the Prudboy training ground


    Episode on the conduct of highly maneuverable defense in the framework of the Kavkaz-2020 command and control exercise at the Ashuluk training ground


    The work of the bomber aviation crews of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Southern Military District during the Kavkaz-2020 command and control system exercise


    Launch of the Kalibr rocket by the Kolpino submarine as part of the Kavkaz-2020 command and control system exercise

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    franco
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    Post  franco Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:18 am

    The Southern Military District, headquartered in Rostov-on-Don, is the smallest controlled territory of the new Russian military districts. Moreover, its geopolitical position is very specific. The Southern Military District is connected with the territory of Russia by a not very wide corridor between the Black and Caspian Seas. In the north-west, the district borders on absolutely hostile Ukraine, in the south-west - on the equally hostile Georgia. Azerbaijan is located in the southeast - not that it is directly hostile, but you cannot call it an ally either.

    The Southern Military District is responsible for the defense of the partially isolated Crimea ("Problems in Building the Defense of the Crimea", "NVO", 08/30/19), partially recognized by Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Armenia not bordering on Russia ("External Shield of the Caucasus", "NVO", 08/31/18), and their own North Caucasian republics are considered not very calm (and until recently they were a very hot spot). It turns out a situation of "defense in all azimuths" ("North Caucasus: when the rear becomes a front", "NVO", 02/08/19), while reinforcements from the rest of Russia must come through this narrowest corridor. Fortunately, the Ukrainian army is unable to cut this corridor, and Kazakhstan is still our ally.

    Military potential of the Southern Military District

    The ground forces of the Southern Military District and the Airborne Forces on its territory include 3 military bases (approximately equivalent to reinforced motorized rifle brigades), 3 motorized rifle and 1 airborne assault (mountain) division, 5 motorized rifle (including one coastal defense), 3 missile, 2 missile coastal defense , 2 artillery, 1 MLRS, 3 anti-aircraft missiles, 2 reconnaissance, 3 special forces, 1 airborne assault, 1 marines, 1 radio technical OSNAZ, 1 communications, 1 electronic warfare, 1 engineering, 1 RChBZ, 3 directorates, 3 MTO brigades, 1 artillery, 1 special forces, 1 radio-technical OSNAZ, 3 engineer-sappers, 3 RHBZ, 1 marines, 1 coastal defense regiment.
    This group is armed with 36 Iskander missile launchers, over 500 tanks (at least 80 T-90A, over 400 T-72B / B3), over 800 BMP-2/3 and up to 250 BMD-2 / 4M, over 600 BTR-80 / 82A, more than 600 MTLB and BTR-D, more than 500 self-propelled guns, about 150 towed guns, more than 200 large-caliber mortars, more than 200 MLRS, about 150 self-propelled ATGM systems and up to 80 MT-12 anti-tank systems, 12 large and medium air defense missile systems divisions range (2 S-300V air defense missile systems, 10 Buk missile defense systems of various modifications), up to 250 short-range air defense systems and Tunguska air defense missile systems. This number does not include equipment in warehouses and storage bases.

    As part of the VKS YuVO (including the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet) and central subordination on its territory there are 12 aviation and 2 helicopter regiments, 1 brigade of army aviation, 5 training air bases. They are armed with over 80 front-line bombers and reconnaissance aircraft, over 50 attack aircraft, over 150 fighters and fighter-bombers, 2 RTR Il-20M aircraft, over 40 transport aircraft, up to 80 training aircraft, over 120 combat and anti-submarine helicopters, up to 60 multipurpose helicopters Mi-8, 8 transport helicopters Mi-26. It does not include the aircraft in service with the 929th GLITs in Akhtubinsk. There are two air defense divisions in the Southern Military District. They include 7 anti-aircraft missile regiments.

    As part of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla, which can exchange ships and boats (along the Volga-Don), there are 7 submarines (1 project 877, 6 project 06363), 1 missile cruiser, project 1164, 6 patrol ships (1 pr. 01090, 1 pr. 1135, 1 pr. 1135M, 3 pr. 11356), 2 missile ships pr. 11661, 6 MPK (1 pr. 1124, 5 pr. 1124M), 2 patrol ships pr. 22160, 3 small artillery ship pr. 21630, 10 MRK (2 pr. 12341, 2 pr. 1239, 6 pr. 21631), 6 missile boats (2 pr. 1241T, 4 pr. 12411), 1 artillery boat pr. 1241T (missile boat without PKR), 4 armored boats of project 1204, 7 sea minesweepers (1 project 12660, 1 project 12700, 4 project 266M, 1 project 02668), 4 base minesweepers of project 12650, 4 road minesweepers (1 project 1258, 1 Project 12592, 2 Project 10750), 7 BDK (3 Project 1171, 4 Project 775), 9 landing boats (1 Project 21820, 2 Project 1176, 6 Project 11770).

    In the troops of the Southern Military District there is a very large (higher than in other military districts) the share of the most modern equipment, which after the 2008 war ("War 08.08.08 - afterword", "NVO", 03.08.18) came here on a priority basis. These are T-90A, BMP-3, BTR-82A, 2S19 self-propelled guns, Tornado MLRS, Buk and Tor air defense systems of various modifications, S-300V air defense systems, Su-34 bombers, Su-30 fighter-bombers, combat helicopters Mi-35M, Mi-28N, Ka-52, submarine pr. 06363, patrol ships (frigates) pr. 11356, missile ships, pr. 11661, IAC pr. 21630 and MRK pr. 21631, SCRC "Bal" and " Bastion".

    The potential of the Southern Military District, even without taking into account the Armed Forces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, significantly exceeds the potential of the Armed Forces of Georgia. After the defeat of 2008, this country cannot be considered a military enemy, and no real strengthening of the Georgian army to a scale that is dangerous for us can be expected in any foreseeable future. Together with the Armed Forces of Armenia (and NKR), the Southern Military District is significantly stronger than the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, however, the war in this configuration does not seem real. The Armed Forces of Bulgaria and Romania are virtual opponents in every sense (political, geographic, military); there are no real forces of other NATO members on their territories. Thus, the Southern Military District has two real opponents - Ukraine and Turkey.

    Opponents of the Southern Military District

    The Southern Military District, especially its newly formed 8th Army, is the closest rear for the DPR / LPR forces, which, in turn, provide the Southern Military District with the “foreground” and “airbag”. At the same time, however, the Southern Military District should also provide the defense of the Crimea. On the other hand, the ZVO grouping "hangs" over the Ukrainian border in its northeast ("Imaginary and Real Opponents", "NVO", 04/17/2020), behind which the second echelon is the group of the same ZVO around Moscow ("Guarding the Heart Russia "," NVO ", 01/11/19). In addition, the forces of the Western Military District and the Southern Military District, opposing the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have another echelon - the Volga group of the Central Military District (Striking Force of the Volga Region, NVO, 04/05/19). All these forces are more than enough for a successful confrontation of the Ukrainian army, and the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine is possible only in the imagination of the paranoid.

    Turkey is already a member of NATO, but the alliance will not help it to fight against Russia either. Because he is not ready to fight with Russia, and also because Ankara's current membership in the “aggressive imperialist bloc” is mostly virtual.

    Apparently, Russia has not fought as much with anyone in history as with Turkey. This was determined by the intersection of the geopolitical interests of the parties in the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Middle East. The last war between Russia and Turkey was the First World War. Thus, in the fall of 2018, the second century began without wars between the two countries. Now between Moscow and Ankara there is a downright "great friendship". True, geopolitical contradictions have not disappeared from this. In some ways, they may even have worsened.

    In fact, the "great friendship" between the two countries is being built for almost the entire twenty-first century. However, its real strength was demonstrated in the fall of 2015, when a Turkish F-16C fighter deliberately shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber over Syria, one of whose pilots was killed. The parties instantly found themselves on the brink of open war. The situation changed as a result of an attempted military coup in Turkey in July 2016 (“there would be no happiness, but misfortune helped”). Turkish President Erdogan blamed Washington for organizing this attempt (it is still unclear how justified this is) and went for a sharp rapprochement with Moscow. At the same time, however, the interests of Russia and Turkey, both in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and Caucasus, continue to diverge enormously. Moreover, Moscow and Tehran, in fact,forced Ankara to play in Syria according to their rules, which the Turks cannot like in any way. Thanks to the "special relationship" between Moscow and Ankara, Syrian troops with Russian-Iranian support have successfully liquidated all the enclaves controlled by the Syrian groups under Turkish command, leaving only Idlib. Speaking in rough modern language, it turned out that Erdogan was "bred like a sucker." At the same time, Idlib (part of the province not controlled by Damascus) was cut by the Syrians with Russian support by more than half. Realizing that almost everything was lost, Erdogan flew into a rage when a new Syrian offensive began at the end of 2019. Again Russia and Turkey found themselves on the verge of a direct military clash, but again "friendship" prevailed, Moscow successfully "legalized" all the new Syrian acquisitions.The situation is once again frozen at a new level, with the strongest impression that in the very foreseeable future another similar cycle will happen: the militants sponsored by Ankara will stage another provocation, in response to which the Syrian troops, with Russian-Iranian support, will go to recapture the rest of Idlib.

    In this regard, the "great friendship" can very easily develop into a much more natural enmity with centuries of tradition. Moreover, not only Syria, but also Nagorno-Karabakh can become the reason for the renewal of hostility. At some point, Baku may decide that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have achieved a decisive superiority over the Armenian Armed Forces, so it is possible to start a war, automatically creating a threat of war between the “older brothers” - Turkey and Russia. Syria also has not only Idlib: one can imagine a scenario in which the Kurds agree with Assad to return under the Syrian flag, but the Turkish Armed Forces still begin a military operation against the Kurds on Syrian territory. Some other scenarios may also arise. Especially if the government changes in Ankara and Turkey again begins to move closer to the US and NATO.

    As you know, there are no land borders between Turkey and Russia, which in a certain way complicates the conduct of hostilities for both sides. However, Russia's 102nd base in Armenia and Russian military facilities in Syria are located near the Turkish borders of the respective countries. Despite the fact that neither Armenia nor Syria border on Russia either.

    Of course, the ground forces of Russia in all respects are significantly superior to the Turkish army, but in the absence of a land border, this does not really matter. Where the sides do touch (in the south of Armenia and in the north-west of Syria), on the contrary, the Turkish army on land has an overwhelming superiority over the corresponding Russian groups, and strengthening the latter becomes a most difficult task for Moscow. It remains to hope for the help of the allies (Armenia, Syria and, possibly, Iran), as well as for the very difficult mountainous terrain, which will certainly be against the advancing (Turks) for the defenders (Russia, Armenia, Syria). However, if the Russian army goes through Georgia to save its troops in Armenia (and maybe in Syria), large-scale ground battles could unfold on the territory of this country.First, between the forces of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces and the Turkish 3rd Field Army, and then between the troops coming to their aid from the depths of each country. With such a development of events, in the end, Russia must "transfer" the enemy at the expense of the quantity and quality of people and equipment, but it will not work out either easily or quickly.

    At sea, the situation for Russia is also not at all favorable. As in the case of the ground forces, the Russian Navy as a whole is much stronger than the Turkish Navy, but locally the situation is more likely the opposite. The matter is aggravated by the fact that supplies to our group in Syria go mainly through the Turkish straits. Russian merchant ships and auxiliary unarmed ships of the Navy, which ended up in the straits zone at the beginning of the war, will simply be captured by the Turks, and the warships will inevitably be sunk by them (and, quite likely, without losses for the Turkish side). Colossal problems for the Russian military and merchant shipping in the Black and Mediterranean Seas will be created by the Turkish submarines of project 209 (at least 12 units). Fighting them for the Russian fleet will be extremely difficult. Objectively speaking, the easiest way to destroy Turkish submarines will not be at sea, but in their bases.

    In this regard, the struggle for air supremacy will be of decisive importance. Turkey has a powerful air force that is quite capable of striking directly against Russian territory. True, both in the Crimea and in the North Caucasus, which the Turkish F-16s are capable of reaching, powerful groups of fighter aircraft and ground air defense are deployed, so for the Turks air raids on these areas can be prohibitively expensive. It will be much easier to attack Russian targets in Armenia and Syria, but even here it will not do without losses. On the other hand, Russia can, thanks to the presence of a developed airfield network, quickly build up an aviation grouping in the Crimea and the Caucasus at the expense of the Air Force of the Western Military District, the Central Military District, and not, if necessary, even the Air Defense Force. In addition, in the Saratov region (by the standards of strategists,it is very close), the main group of Long-Range Aviation ("Air Strategists", "NVO", 07.12.18) is deployed. It will be difficult to confront all this with the Turkish Air Force, to put it mildly. Turkey's ground air defense is large enough, but very archaic. The situation is radically changed by Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, but the question of whether this air defense system will be able to shoot at Russian aircraft remains open. Russian aviation is capable of reaching any point and to any object (in particular, to military-industrial complex enterprises) in Turkey, while practically the entire territory of Russia (except for the Crimea and part of the North Caucasus) is out of reach of Turkish aviation.The situation is radically changed by Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, but the question of whether this air defense system will be able to shoot at Russian aircraft remains open. Russian aviation is capable of reaching any point and to any object (in particular, to military-industrial complex enterprises) in Turkey, while practically the entire territory of Russia (except for the Crimea and part of the North Caucasus) is out of reach of Turkish aviation.The situation is radically changed by Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, but the question of whether this air defense system will be able to shoot at Russian aircraft remains open. Russian aviation is capable of reaching any point and to any object (in particular, to military-industrial complex enterprises) in Turkey, while practically the entire territory of Russia (except for the Crimea and part of the North Caucasus) is out of reach of Turkish aviation.

    Now another additional theater of operations has emerged - Libya, where Ankara and Moscow again found themselves on different sides of the local civil war. And here our allies were Egypt and the Arabian monarchies. However, Russia's involvement in the Libyan conflict is much lower than in Syria, so one can only wish Turkey to get involved in the Libyan war as deeply and deeply as possible.

    In any case, a Russian-Turkish war would have cost both sides enormously, regardless of the outcome (which will almost certainly be in Russia's favor). This is a strong deterrent, but not a 100% guarantee that there will be no war.

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    medo
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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues - Page 11 Empty More about exercises.

    Post  medo Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:54 am



    More about exercises.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:25 am

    China and Russia wary of German rearmament

    Caucasus conflict heralds clash of the titans


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:43 am

    Russia’s foreign policy enters new China-aligned phase
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:01 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnoN8_iO4Jg
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:21 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnoN8_iO4Jg

    Can you summarize what they are saying?
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:35 pm

    Since the Chinese BRI goes via Kazakhstan, with branches in Azerbaijan & Ukraine, & RF, destabilizing C. Asia & all of those is the way to derail it. Nazarbayev conducted power transfer to prevent turmoil like in Kirgizia, Armenia, Ukraine & Belarus.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:42 pm

    Russia has an arc of instability on its periphery
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:54 am

    In general, some Ukrainian analysts posit, the results of recent weeks point to the emergence of the contours of a new transregional defense alliance that includes Ukraine, Azerbaijan, the UK, Turkey and Poland (Dsnews.ua, October 19).
    Russian experts have already termed the rapprochement between Ukraine and Turkey a “challenge” for Moscow. In their opinion, the possible “presence of Turkish drones in Ukraine is fraught with unpleasant consequences”: if they appear in Donbas, the Russian-controlled regimes of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) will have nothing comparable to oppose them. Furthermore, Russian experts are worried about Turkey’s support for the Crimean Tatar diaspora and the prospect of a joint Ukrainian-Turkish naval formation in the Black Sea (Gazeta.ru, October 14).
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:45 am

    Those Russian experts are probably foreign funded. Cause no person with self inch of respect and intelligence would fear Tatars in Crimea since they account for 10% of crimeas population.

    Ukraine is broke, along with turkey.  If they decide to use drones in eastern Ukraine against DNR/LNR, expect Russian supplies is EW and anti drone tech.

    Ukraine has no navy either. Turkey's is pathetic.

    Man, people fear and or push fear over nothing.

    Russia will use Turkey cause Ukraine has no leverage over Turkey and Turkey had no friends now with cash.

    Ukraine won't be that nation.

    Lol.

    Turkey is trying (but failing) to use Ukraine as leverage over Russia.

    It's like Israel and all the Arab nations around it. Israel had even less capabilities but destroyed their enemy. Russia has all the capabilities and manpower to destroy Turkey multiple times over.  Ukraine isn't even a threat.  Georgia was more of a threat.

    Add Poland to the mix and it's hilarious. Country barely has its own armed forces.

    People are stupid in general. They think that a nation can't fight multiple fronts at once but there is a reason why Russia has military districts.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:13 pm

    Russia has extremely strong leverage against Banderastan. Its NATzO pals are not prepared to pony up the money to keep it afloat.
    So Ukraine's economy is withering away since it chose to spite its face by slicing off its own nose when it comes to trade with Russia.
    It is gradually dawning on Banderite retards that Russia is the only real trading partner they had and without it they are screwed.
    No economy can function on vapours for decades waiting for the right trade opportunities to arise and those opportunities are
    actually generated by having a viable economy to create exportable goods and services and to create demand for imports.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:38 pm

    Ukraine, Azerbaijan, the UK, Turkey and Poland

    Coalition of the abandoned and the fucked up... I mean just the fact that the Ukraine leads the list and the UK is third is amusing... how the mighty have fallen... and the irony that the UK started WWII over Poland but now Poland is the only country of that group actually in the EU...

    I would say rather than fear them they should be encouraging them to work together... I am sure they will be capable of great things... shouldn't be long before the Kiev regime is overrun by the forces from the Donbass... the way the UK has severed relations with its main trading block because it does not like to be dictated to by Brussels is amusing... the Ukraine has essentially done the same with Russia and isolated itself from its main trading partner and customer base, while Turkey survived an attempted coup supported by its HATO allies like the US which continues to protect the coup leader, and is in almost open conflict with France and Greece over a few regional issues... and then there is Poland and Azerbaijan... I don't think it should be ignored, but I also don't think it will be keeping Russian defence planners up at night.

    Regarding Turkish drones over the Ukraine... they already deal with them over Syria.... if the Ukraine wants to kill its own citizens with drones, I am sure they will respond with drones over Kiev and elsewhere... practise against drone attacks is ultimately a useful thing because planning and tactics need to be developed to counter them.

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:34 am

    Russia should further strenghten Black sea fleet
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    Post  franco Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:50 am

    Central District Short Blanket

    The military equipment of the Central Military District is not enough to repel likely threats
    About the author: Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin - Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis.

    The Central Military District (headquartered in Yekaterinburg) is the largest in the country in terms of area of ​​responsibility. It exceeds 7 million square km (more than Australia), stretching from the Volga to Lake Baikal.

    CVO potential

    The grouping of the ground forces of the district (including the Airborne Forces) includes one military base, one tank division, six motorized rifle (including one mountain), one airborne assault, two special forces, two missile, two artillery, one MLRS, three anti-aircraft missile, one engineering, one communications, one electronic warfare, three battle management, two MTO brigades, two RChBZ brigades plus two RChBZ and two engineering regiments.

    The group is armed with 24 Iskander missile launchers, about 300 tanks (T-72 and possibly T-90), more than 700 BMP-2 and BMD-2M, more than 400 BTR-80/82A, up to 50 MTLB , at least 250 self-propelled guns, up to 150 towed guns and mortars, about 150 MLRS, up to 100 self-propelled anti-tank systems and anti-tank systems MT-12, two divisions of S-300V air defense systems and nine divisions of Buk air defense missile systems, more than 100 short-range air defense systems and Tunguska air defense systems ".

    In addition, a significant amount of equipment is in storage, given the fact that there are three central tank reserve bases on the territory of the Central Military District. Each of them has thousands of armored vehicles, though not always in a combat-ready state.

    As part of the aviation group of the 14th Air Army of the Central Military District, as well as the Long-Range Aviation and Military Transport Aviation Commands, there are seven air regiments, one air base, an army aviation brigade and a helicopter regiment in the Central Military District. It is armed with about 100 bombers, attack aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft, about 50 MiG-31B interceptors, up to 100 transport and passenger aircraft, 30 Mi-24P attack helicopters, at least 50 Mi-8 multi-purpose helicopters, 5 Mi-26 transport helicopters.

    The ground air defense grouping includes seven anti-aircraft missile regiments. Although the Central Military District accounts for the vast coastline of the Arctic Ocean, it does not include the forces and means of the Navy and Arctic units.

    Given the size of the district, the available amount of weapons and equipment is completely insufficient for its defense. The situation is aggravated by the fact that most of this technology is seriously outdated (the only exceptions are the BTR-82A, the Chrysanthemum-S ATGM, some ground-based air defense systems and, in part, the 2S19 ACS).

    A mitigating factor is the size of the territory, which is almost uninhabited in the north. Enemy air attack weapons (except for American and Chinese ICBMs, MRBMs and SLBMs) ​​simply will not reach many of the district's targets. It is because of the "central" location of the region that most of the ground component of the Russian strategic nuclear forces is deployed here: more than half of the strategic aviation, two of the three missile armies (9 out of 12 missile divisions) of the Strategic Missile Forces.

    Despite the favorable geographical position, the Central Military District, especially its Ural-Siberian part, requires a radical quantitative and qualitative strengthening. And not due to the weakening of other districts, but due to the formation of new units and formations, receiving not old equipment from warehouses, but the latest from factories.

    Unfortunately, so far the trends are rather opposite. The Central Military District is the last to receive new equipment, and its grouping is gradually "drifting" westward. From Siberia, connections are relocated to the Urals and the Volga region. First of all, due to the formations of the Central Military District, the ZVO grouping is formed on the border with Ukraine. Its creation is necessary, but the Central Military District must receive compensation.

    Due to its geographical location, the Central Military District should be a reserve for the rest of the districts and the closest rear for the military military district. New equipment should come here not last, but first of all, in order to be tested in polygon conditions. For example, it would be quite natural to transfer the first serial "Armata" to the 90th Panzer Division in Chebarkul, especially since it is very close to the manufacturing plant. Alas, so far everything is quite the opposite.

    There can be two potential wars in the Central Military District's area of ​​responsibility. They talk about one for a long time and regularly, about the other they are deafeningly silent.

    Islamic Caliphate


    The Russian military campaign in Syria was launched primarily in order to stop the expansion of radical Islam as far as possible from the Russian borders. There is another geographic area where Moscow may have to fight a war with similar goals. In the short term, this is generally the most likely war for Russia.

    It is already clear that the Afghan campaign of the United States and its allies has failed, the Afghan Armed Forces alone are not capable of defending the country. Apparently, the United States will surrender Afghanistan to the Taliban, considering them the lesser of evils in comparison with the "Islamic Caliphate" (banned in the Russian Federation - "NVO"). It is difficult to say whether the Taliban themselves will begin expansion to the north. The Taliban is a movement (banned in the Russian Federation - NVO), mainly Pashtun, they do not like to operate in ethnically alien areas. But Islamists from the countries of Central Asia are able to "take root" on the territory of Afghanistan. Having received combat training in Afghanistan, they will carry "knowledge and experience" home.

    Despite the ideological similarity, the Taliban are at war with the Islamic Caliphate. For the latter, expansion is a way of being. Central Asia and Afghanistan for him are a single "vilayat Khorasan". The Taliban will most likely simply push the “caliphate” to the north, that is, the expansion of the latter into Central Asia will happen automatically. It will take place in the form of infiltration of small sabotage and terrorist groups designed to "wake up" the "sleeping cells" of like-minded people that exist in all Central Asian countries.

    Members of the "sleeping cells" can be representatives of a wide variety of segments of the population, including businessmen, officials and security agencies. As a result, it is completely unclear where the "front line" will be. It is clear that the radicals will not observe the state borders. On the contrary, they will deliberately break them, creating in practice "wilayat Khorasan".

    Russia will not be able to stay on the sidelines not even because of its obligations under the CSTO, but because of the same considerations for which it launched the Syrian campaign. It is better to lose 200 servicemen in the south of Central Asia than 20 thousand military and civilians in the Volga region, the Urals and Siberia, if radicals break through there. The main problem will be on whose side will be a tangible part of the civilian population and security forces of the Central Asian countries. For one part of the region's population, the Russian military will be the defenders, for another part - the occupiers.

    On the part of the RF Armed Forces at the initial stage of the conflict, the Airborne Forces and front-line strike aviation will certainly be involved. It is impossible to answer now whether their potential will be enough to solve the problem or significantly reduce its severity. This answer depends primarily on the reaction of the local population, which will be different in different countries of Central Asia.

    If it becomes necessary to transfer tank and infantry units and formations to Central Asia, this will mean the development of the conflict according to the most unfavorable scenario, reminiscent of “our” Afghan war (“Afghan Lesson for Russia”, “NVO”, 06.04.18). If the Russian troops begin to incur significant losses in people and equipment, the analogy will become quite obvious and completely unpleasant.

    At the same time, Russia cannot simply admit defeat and leave. If only because in a few years at most we will have to wage the same war on our own territory. Therefore, there may be a variant of retreat from the southern countries of Central Asia, which do not have borders with us, with the simultaneous deployment of a military grouping on the southern border of Kazakhstan, which will have to be defended as our own.

    However, this "obvious" war seems like "flowers" in comparison with the one about which it is customary to keep silent.

    Strategic partners?

    The Chinese are moving to Central Asia very actively ("Beijing goes on the offensive", "NVO", 11/16/18). The invasion is being conducted in economic and demographic ways. Military expansion is likely to be overkill. Or it will look peaceful too: in Tajikistan, military facilities of the PLA, apparently, already exist now - with the consent of official Dushanbe.

    But no options can be ruled out. At least Kazakhstan may be ready to resist. Or Beijing, for some internal reason, wants to speed up the process. And then the likelihood of an openly military scenario will arise.

    In the event of an invasion of Central Asia by Chinese troops, Moscow will find itself in a difficult situation. All countries of the region bordering on the PRC are members of the CSTO, that is, Russia is legally obliged to protect them in the event of external aggression. In addition, the seizure of Central Asia by China and the PLA's access to the Russian-Kazakh border from Astrakhan to Barnaul will become a complete geopolitical disaster for Russia. On the other hand, you don't want to fight China at all, especially if it did not attack you.

    Nevertheless, refusing to defend at least Kazakhstan will become a delayed geopolitical suicide for Russia, and a very short delay. If Moscow has at least the instinct for self-preservation, it will have to fight. To try to avoid an escalation of the conflict, it will be possible to officially declare that the RF Armed Forces will conduct hostilities only in the territories of the Central Asian countries and will not be the first to strike at the territory of the PRC.

    It is quite obvious that the PLA grouping only of the Western Command and the Xinjiang Military District is much stronger than the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan and the Central Military District and the Airborne Forces of Russia combined (the Kyrgyz and Tajik armies can be neglected). On the side of the latter - only the terrain. Terrain conditions allow organizing a sufficiently strong defense and inflicting tangible losses on the aggressor. And if the Kazakh army is only able to detain the enemy on its eastern border, then with Russian help it is possible to grasp the mountain passes on this border seriously. Further, the main role will be played by logistics, the ability of the parties to build up forces in the theater of operations through the transfer of reinforcements. For both Russia and China, this problem will be difficult due to the large distances.

    Even if Moscow and Beijing initially agree to fight only in Central Asia, without touching the territories of the PRC and the Russian Federation, Russia will not be able to transfer military-military units to Kazakhstan. This is inconvenient in terms of transport and unacceptable from a safety point of view. If Moscow removes its troops from the Far East, Beijing will immediately "forget" about the original agreement, and this will be a disaster for us. Therefore, the grouping in Kazakhstan can be strengthened by the troops of the Western Military District and, to a lesser extent, the Southern Military District.

    There is no need to be afraid of being stabbed in the back by NATO. Not because NATO members are noble, and even more so not because they will be on our side, but because they are weak and cowardly. But it is better not to touch the grouping on the border with Ukraine until the last opportunity.

    The human resources of China are endless, but the number of military equipment is finite. Therefore, it is very difficult to contain the PLA offensive in the border regions of Kazakhstan, but it is possible. If this succeeds, Beijing will have to admit defeat. And if the PLA breaks into the operational space of the Kazakh steppes, Moscow will have to admit defeat, since it will have nothing more to cling to on the territory of Kazakhstan (except for the borders of the Irtysh rivers in the northeast and the Ural in the northwest). The first option will be painful for Beijing, but not disastrous. The second option will be a disaster for Moscow.

    However, the losing side may not want to admit defeat. And it will escalate by striking enemy territory. This almost automatically means a full-scale war, at the end of which an exchange of nuclear strikes is seen.

    Of course, neither Moscow nor Beijing needs this. But most wars in history have not been needed by either side. Nevertheless, they began. And then they ended very sadly. At least for one of the parties, and more often for all.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:15 am

    They are probably upgrading the other districts who require the new equipment most, first.

    Central is important but it wouldn't be hard to quickly provide assets and men to it from the other districts.  While I agree they newer equipment and more men, they also need to prioritize.

    Over time, it will get its upgrades and probably increase in men and equipment.

    Does anyone have a good breakdown of Central military districts current equipment and total manpower?
    franco
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    Post  franco Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:00 am

    miketheterrible wrote:They are probably upgrading the other districts who require the new equipment most, first.

    Central is important but it wouldn't be hard to quickly provide assets and men to it from the other districts.  While I agree they newer equipment and more men, they also need to prioritize.

    Over time, it will get its upgrades and probably increase in men and equipment.

    Does anyone have a good breakdown of Central military districts current equipment and total manpower?

    The only T-90 tanks would be at the Tank Command Institute at Kazan. As for manpower my guesstimate is 162,000 which would include all services and military cadets. I show 15-16 battalions of tanks which makes it 450-500. For Motor Rifle battalions, 13 with BMP-2/2M and 10 with BTR-82A's. There is also 1 light battalion with SUV's and 2 Mountain battalions with Tigr's and Typhoons. The Airborne brigade has 2 battalions with BMD-4M's and 1 with BMD-2. There are 8 Spetsnaz battalions in addition. They are getting new equipment but not the priority of the West and South. Sorry but all the time I have presently.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:10 am

    Thanks franco
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:26 pm

    The author of this garbage is a moron.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:38 pm

    The loudest chirping bird gets the worm breakfast from the mother... this is just a baby bird chirping for attention...

    Filling the place with Armata tanks barely makes sense because any conflict with the Taleban or Chinese really wont benefit from having Armata types in service there.

    Speeding up procurement and deliver of new gear across the range of land sea and air equipment would be the best solution all round.

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