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    World Economic News and Discussion

    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:03 pm

    Russia uses rubles. All your fictional data are useless. They don't depend on dollars like japan, australia or spain.

    Any respectable economist will tell you Russia is on par with Germany rather than Spain.

    Also they are self sufficient contrary to all those dogs.

    I live in France. Pretty much all the companies rely on US. Get something wrong with them and you collapse. Russia is hit by sanction for almost a decade and it only got better. They just took over algeria as a client for their wheat and france got kicked off of there loosing their main client. 1 farmer killed itself every day in France before that, now it's gonna be just worse.

    Big economy doesn't mean good life. Most people coming from "poor"  countries are surprised when they come in "rich" countries when they find out that their bigger salary isn't enough for half a month there.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:12 pm

    Pacense wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    I dont understand your point regarding the West block vs Russia or China. What I am stating is that the West economy dwarfs any other economy. Let it be in talent, capital access, or whatever variable we choose, it dwarfs any other economy. Its a fact not an opinion.

    West economy is good only because they have neocolinazed rest of the world which is getting an end.

    Now most countries have their own faculties to form people and can produce their own stuff, specially thanks to china that provides analogue stuff to western ones. And most of them are trying to get ride of western tech. Sure they don't have the tech to go in space but they can replace everyday life stuff like smartphones, computers, energy, cars...

    China has changed the rules like it or not that's a fact.

    And western are in deepshit. They can't send back those factories from China/India because it cost too much and they have mo more trained people to work in them. And they can't live without chinese goods.

    India will follow similar path as China by copying what it produces for western companies in indian based factories and will flood the market.

    Russia controls the energies.

    If they both impose sanction on EU europeans will feel it much more than russians when they imposed sanctions on Russia.

    You seem to bring a lot of wishfull thinking into the discussion.

    US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada, all have bigger economies than Russia. The US alone has an economy which is almost 15X bigger. New York state alone has a bigger economy than Russia. Really close to Russia, you have Australia, Spain, South Korea or the Netherlands. After that you will still have like 30's other countries with a developed economy index to add up. Hopping that they will suffer the same amount of pain by reciprocal sanctions, its just delusional.

    Sure Russia has the energy card, sure Asia is growing and will surprass the West in the next century. Sure Brasil and Africa will have a saying in the world affairs in the future. But either we like or not, right now, the west is the economic powerhouse of the world.


    The US and EU account presently for nearly 1/3rd of the world's economy, but are losing 1-1.5% of that every year on average. And that's nominal figures, not PPP which would give the real picture. If you add the UK, Canada, Australia the outlook will brighten a little.
    But when you have Apple and Amazon having absurd capitalization rates that don't reflect the real amount of economic activity, and the dominance of the US Dollar, it's obvious that even this outlook is skewed.

    And that's enough said on the matter. The rest of the world is growing faster than the US and Europe is.

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    Pacense


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    Post  Pacense Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:17 pm

    Isos wrote:Russia uses rubles. All your fictional data are useless. They don't depend on dollars like japan, australia or spain.

    Any respectable economist will tell you Russia is on par with Germany rather than Spain.

    Also they are self sufficient contrary to all those dogs.

    I live in France. Pretty much all the companies rely on US. Get something wrong with them and you collapse. Russia is hit by sanction for almost a decade and it only got better. They just took over algeria as a client for their wheat and france got kicked off of there loosing their main client. 1 farmer killed itself every day in France before that, now it's gonna be just worse.

    Big economy doesn't mean good life. Most people coming from "poor"  countries are surprised when they come in "rich" countries when they find out that their bigger salary isn't enough for half a month there.

    Its not fictional data, but true avaiable data that anyone can check online. Do some homework.
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    Post  Pacense Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:22 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Pacense wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    I dont understand your point regarding the West block vs Russia or China. What I am stating is that the West economy dwarfs any other economy. Let it be in talent, capital access, or whatever variable we choose, it dwarfs any other economy. Its a fact not an opinion.

    West economy is good only because they have neocolinazed rest of the world which is getting an end.

    Now most countries have their own faculties to form people and can produce their own stuff, specially thanks to china that provides analogue stuff to western ones. And most of them are trying to get ride of western tech. Sure they don't have the tech to go in space but they can replace everyday life stuff like smartphones, computers, energy, cars...

    China has changed the rules like it or not that's a fact.

    And western are in deepshit. They can't send back those factories from China/India because it cost too much and they have mo more trained people to work in them. And they can't live without chinese goods.

    India will follow similar path as China by copying what it produces for western companies in indian based factories and will flood the market.

    Russia controls the energies.

    If they both impose sanction on EU europeans will feel it much more than russians when they imposed sanctions on Russia.

    You seem to bring a lot of wishfull thinking into the discussion.

    US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada, all have bigger economies than Russia. The US alone has an economy which is almost 15X bigger. New York state alone has a bigger economy than Russia. Really close to Russia, you have Australia, Spain, South Korea or the Netherlands. After that you will still have like 30's other countries with a developed economy index to add up. Hopping that they will suffer the same amount of pain by reciprocal sanctions, its just delusional.

    Sure Russia has the energy card, sure Asia is growing and will surprass the West in the next century. Sure Brasil and Africa will have a saying in the world affairs in the future. But either we like or not, right now, the west is the economic powerhouse of the world.


    The US and EU account presently for nearly 1/3rd of the world's economy, but are losing 1-1.5% of that every year on average. And that's nominal figures, not PPP which would give the real picture. If you add the UK, Canada, Australia the outlook will brighten a little.
    But when you have Apple and Amazon having absurd capitalization rates that don't reflect the real amount of economic activity, and the dominance of the US Dollar, it's obvious that even this outlook is skewed.

    And that's enough said on the matter. The rest of the world is growing faster than the US and Europe is.

    It's true that Asia will grow to catch the west, but sure as hell, it will take time. Especially because of talent and capital attraction that the West has. The USD its not by itself a mean of domination. Its just a mirror of the economic powerhouse that the US is.

    US indexes have been on the rise for more than a century now. I tend to agree that some companies are way overvalued. A healty corretion is already due.
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    Post  Singular_Transform Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:36 pm

    Pacense wrote:

    US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada, all have bigger economies than Russia. The US alone has an economy which is almost 15X bigger. New York state alone has a bigger economy than Russia. Really close to Russia, you have Australia, Spain, South Korea or the Netherlands. After that you will still have like 30's other countries with a developed economy index to add up. Hopping that they will suffer the same amount of pain by reciprocal sanctions, its just delusional.

    Sure Russia has the energy card, sure Asia is growing and will surprass the West in the next century. Sure Brasil and Africa will have a saying in the world affairs in the future. But either we like or not, right now, the west is the economic powerhouse of the world.


    You use GDP date expressed in USD.

    That is meaningless, the USA has financial restrictions agaisnt Russian investments.

    At the same time the Russian goverment happy to play along with this game, to make source locally as much production as possible.

    Exanple the Yassen class submarine cost 1 billion USD at current exhange rate, the eqivalend of it in the USA cost 5-6 billion.

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    Post  Arrow Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:41 pm

    Russia is the world's 5th economy in PPP. Comparable to Germany. Lowest debt of major economies. US GDP is a counterfeit based on debt and financial scams. Russia has real GDP not based on debt and pseudo financial operations.

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    Post  kvs Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:47 pm

    Arrow wrote:Russia is the world's 5th economy in PPP.  Comparable to Germany.  Lowest debt of major economies.  US GDP is a counterfeit based on debt and financial scams.  Russia has real GDP not based on debt and pseudo financial operations.

    Indeed, over 50% of the US GDP is the "financial industry".

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    Post  AlfaT8 Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:37 pm

    kvs wrote:

    Indeed, over 50% of the US GDP is the "financial industry".  

    Say what?
    The hell does that mean.
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    Post  kvs Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:56 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    Indeed, over 50% of the US GDP is the "financial industry".  

    Say what?
    The hell does that mean.

    Directly it is 20% but then the BEA categories scatter the rest. Most of the government financial operations are finance industry.
    A huge chunk of the management, legal and other services (e.g. HPC computing, security) are tied up with financing, insurance, stock
    markets.

    BEA link

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:01 am

    Paging Garry

    Please move these non Ukraine related posts when you split this thread.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:09 am

    Isos wrote:Russia uses rubles. All your fictional data are useless. They don't depend on dollars like japan, australia or spain.

    Any respectable economist will tell you Russia is on par with Germany rather than Spain.

    Also they are self sufficient contrary to all those dogs.

    I live in France. Pretty much all the companies rely on US. Get something wrong with them and you collapse. Russia is hit by sanction for almost a decade and it only got better. They just took over algeria as a client for their wheat and france got kicked off of there loosing their main client. 1 farmer killed itself every day in France before that, now it's gonna be just worse.

    Big economy doesn't mean good life. Most people coming from "poor"  countries are surprised when they come in "rich" countries when they find out that their bigger salary isn't enough for half a month there.

    Any respectable economist will tell you, what you said is false.

    Are we talking about World GDP? that is all measured the same for each country regardless of the currency involved.

    Russia doesn't have a GDP on par with Germany.
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    Post  Arrow Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:13 am

    Russia doesn't have a GDP on par with Germany wrote:

    Russia's PPP GDP is at the level of Germany. Soon it will be even higher and higher.

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    Post  Krepost Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:56 am

    GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product.
    But they also add Services to it.
    Services such as Health Care, Banking, Social services etc.

    In the USA:
    - around 50% of the GDP is finances (Wall street, banks, mortgages etc.)
    - around 20% of the GDP is Health care
    - add all the other services and you will find that the Industry and Agriculture sectors of the USA economy (i.e. the actual tangible Product producers) are a small percentage of the economy.

    Don't get me wrong, all the services are necessary to run an economy, but they produce nothing tangible.
    The services are in fact an expense. They should be subtracted rather than added to the GDP.

    If you do not add the services in GDP calculations, China will be by far (very far) the largest economy in the world.
    But, of course, that does not serve the Western narrative

    By the way, Prostitution is also a service.
    And guess what, the more prostitution in a country, the higher the GDP figure will be.
    Actually many advanced and developed countries add prostitution $$ to their GDP. Don't want to provide examples so that I don't offend anybody.
    Hail to the prostitutes.  Very Happy

    P.S. Garry, please move the last bunch of posts to the talking bollocks thread


    Last edited by Krepost on Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:05 am; edited 1 time in total

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:59 am

    Arrow wrote:

    Russia's PPP GDP is at the level of Germany.  Soon it will be even higher and higher.

    That is accurate but PPP alone doesn't determine wealth.
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    Post  lyle6 Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:41 am

    The Mongol nomads would barely even scratch 1/10 of the Chinese Empire's GDP, let alone China + Central Asian states + Middle East + Rus Principalities.

    Did it matter?

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:22 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Arrow wrote:

    Russia's PPP GDP is at the level of Germany.  Soon it will be even higher and higher.

    That is accurate but PPP alone doesn't determine wealth.
    PPP paints better picture of the economy size. For example, men's haircut in US will contribute $20 to the GDP ( price of the said haircut), while in Russia that number will be $4. It is a very crude and simple example, but it explains better difference btw nominal and PPP GDP.
    Due to geopolitical situation, rubble is deeply undervalued against USD and that translates into nominally low GDP number in dollars ( nominal GDP).
    By weaponizing dollar, US put its viability as reserve world currency in question.
    It is a very important instrument in US geopolitical reach, as it is "exporting" internal inflation and "irons out" huge US fiscal and trade deficits, as well as, providing population with a higher purchasing power. Sam Zell quotes a decrease of 25% in purchasing power, if USD loses reserve currency status.

    P.S. I agree with John, that Garry should purge this thread.

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:31 am

    caveat emptor wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Arrow wrote:

    Russia's PPP GDP is at the level of Germany.  Soon it will be even higher and higher.

    That is accurate but PPP alone doesn't determine wealth.
    PPP paints better picture of the economy size. For example, men's haircut in US will contribute $20 to the GDP ( price of the said haircut), while in Russia that number will be $4. It is a very crude and simple example, but it explains better difference btw nominal and PPP GDP.
    Due to geopolitical situation, rubble is deeply undervalued against USD and that translates into nominally low GDP number in dollars ( nominal GDP).
    By weaponizing dollar, US put its viability as reserve world currency in question.
    It is a very important instrument in US geopolitical reach, as it is "exporting" internal inflation and "irons out" huge US fiscal and trade deficits, as well as, providing population with a higher purchasing power. Sam Zell quotes a decrease of 25% in purchasing power, if USD loses reserve currency status.

    P.S. I agree with John, that Garry should purge this thread.

    Within your country yes but that's restricted to within your country, once you go outside of that PPP isn't a reliable means to determine wealth.
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    Post  GarryB Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:45 am


    I dont understand your point regarding the West block vs Russia or China. What I am stating is that the West economy dwarfs any other economy. Let it be in talent, capital access, or whatever variable we choose, it dwarfs any other economy. Its a fact not an opinion.

    All based on the US dollar which is no longer backed by gold or anything else... it is a house with no foundations built in Tornado ally...

    In times of turbulence, and I can't think any bigger one than war, people will try to save as much as they can, and capital flight out of Russia is expected.

    How many average westerners have money in foreign banks? I would expect only the very rich, and mainly for the purpose of hiding its existence to avoid paying tax.

    That is why there must be implemented capital flight safeguards, otherwise it can be a downhill ball, with major effect on currency exchange for example.

    I suspect Russians don't have an enormous amount of trust in their own banks, but banks of foreign countries would likely rate even lower in the trust stakes.

    Ask Venezuela about the gold it kept in the UK....


    If they both impose sanction on EU europeans will feel it much more than russians when they imposed sanctions on Russia.

    And what is funny is that Putin spent the first 14 years in office offering partnership and cooperation with the west and they rejected him and Russia and just made demands and lectured him on why Russia was not European enough.

    US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada, all have bigger economies than Russia.

    All those countries are broken... wealth is shifting from the majority middle class to the super rich and the middle class which used to be the majority and happy enough, are sinking into poverty. Most of the economies of these countries are bullshit hedge fund managers and Lawyers and people shifting around money like they are contributing something. Most manufacturing has been outsourced to other countries where the labour is cheaper and expendable.

    The US alone has an economy which is almost 15X bigger. New York state alone has a bigger economy than Russia. Really close to Russia, you have Australia, Spain, South Korea or the Netherlands.

    Yeah, but Russia has largely unexploited resources and natural wealth and it balances its books, while those countries you say have bigger economies are in debt to their eyeballs with no obvious way to pay it. Inflation will push up interest rates and that includes interest on debt...

    After that you will still have like 30's other countries with a developed economy index to add up. Hopping that they will suffer the same amount of pain by reciprocal sanctions, its just delusional.

    The truth is the opposite really... you could beat the crap out of your kid 30 years ago and they usually got the message, these days you just change the wifi password... the west is soft.... and that is why western sanctions have not been working and wont work... they just make Russia more independent.

    Sure Russia has the energy card, sure Asia is growing and will surprass the West in the next century. Sure Brasil and Africa will have a saying in the world affairs in the future. But either we like or not, right now, the west is the economic powerhouse of the world.

    The west only cares about the west... the world can't get better with them in charge, they want slaves and staff, they don't want rivals, which is why they are treating Russia and China the way they treat them... fear.


    It's true that Asia will grow to catch the west, but sure as hell, it will take time.

    It will take time because the west will fight it tooth and nail with sanctions, but for them there is now Russia and China to trade with instead... it is becoming easier already... hense the fear in the west.

    I might have to learn Mandarin or Russian...

    Especially because of talent and capital attraction that the West has. The USD its not by itself a mean of domination. Its just a mirror of the economic powerhouse that the US is.

    And when the dollar collapses, watch the rats leave the sinking ship...

    US indexes have been on the rise for more than a century now. I tend to agree that some companies are way overvalued. A healty corretion is already due.

    Western indexes didn't even change when their populations were in lockdowns for the pandemic, which shows you their economies are meaningless indicators of nothing at all... it is a balloon that keeps getting bigger... but they can't continue forever...

    Russia doesn't have a GDP on par with Germany.

    When the gas stops Germany wont have a  GDP on par with Germany...

    Economic stuff will be moved shortly...
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:03 am

    Pacense wrote:
    It's true that Asia will grow to catch the west, but sure as hell, it will take time. Especially because of talent and capital attraction that the West has. The USD its not by itself a mean of domination. Its just a mirror of the economic powerhouse that the US is.

    US indexes have been on the rise for more than a century now. I tend to agree that some companies are way overvalued. A healty corretion is already due.

    Yes the USD is just a symptom of the US's historic dominance in business and international finance

    However what I was really getting at is just the absurd level of spending by the US that it's allowed to do because it controls the world's default currency. It can print money all day and get into debt all day. Just look at how its GDP has ballooned over the past 30 years. In 1991 it was just over 6 trillion. Now? Nearly 21 trillion. GDP is a measure of total economic activity. Of course when you can spend as much as you want, and have ridiculous budgets, and have ridiculous capitalization values for your corporations - then your GDP is going to look huge.

    However it's all due for a correction as you said. China meanwhile has been growing their GDP the good old fashioned way. Russia has as well.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:11 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    caveat emptor wrote:
    Within your country yes but that's restricted to within your country, once you go outside of that PPP isn't a reliable means to determine wealth.

    What does "determining wealth" even means in economical terms?
    If you talk about wealth of a country usual metrics economists pay attention to are trade and fiscal deficits, current account, foreign reserves and public debt.

    All leading economists agree that PPP is a much better measure of the size of economy then measuring nominally in dollars.
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    Post  George1 Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:55 am

    i think posts better fit here
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    Post  andalusia Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:21 am

    Is there any truth to this article? I know that the US is bad at undermining other governments however, I think their has been bad mismanagement of the economy on the part of Chavez and Maduro.  Just would like an analysis on this article.

    https://quillette.com/2019/03/25/venezuela-and-the-half-truths-of-noam-chomsky/
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    Post  TMA1 Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:24 am

    Chomsky certainly is blinded by his own biases and designs but this reads like a former commie to neolib sellout bitching about a former hero. Thry are both blinded by ideology and I reject Chomsky and his circle and the neoliberal worldview altogether.

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    Post  andalusia Sat Feb 12, 2022 8:27 pm

    [quote="TMA1"]Chomsky certainly is blinded by his own biases and designs but this reads like a former commie to neolib sellout bitching about a former hero. Thry are both blinded by ideology and I reject Chomsky and his circle and the neoliberal worldview altogether.[/quote

    The Latin American left should strongly consider  land value taxation to address the land concentration problem.

    https://mcleveland.org/blog/index.php/2018/06/how-colonies-can-liberate-themselves-by-taxing-real-estate/ 

    http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/2021/03/taxing-more-from-the-rich-is-difficult-this-is-how-to-do-it.html
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    Post  kvs Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:17 am

    Chomsky is a scumbag with his hysterical stance on covid-19 vaccination. He is worried about dying because some "dirty unvaxxed"
    will give him the disease. Nothing he says today has any weight. It is all his dementia talking.

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