World Economic News and Discussion

Coal in demand more than ever – IEA, 12.16.2023.

Output and sales are forecast to reach record highs by the end of 2023.

Worldwide demand for coal is set to reach a historic high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its ‘Coal 2023’ report on Friday.

The body sees global demand for the fuel rising 1.4% by the end of 2023, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time on record, largely due to soaring coal consumption in emerging and developing economies. For instance, in India and China, it is expected to grow by 8% and 5%, respectively, largely driven by a growing demand for electricity amid insufficient hydropower production.

Production of the fossil fuel is also set to reach a historic high this year, with China, India, and Indonesia – the three largest coal producers that account for 70% of the world’s supply – expected to jointly bring output to more than 2.5 billion tons. Global coal trade is also expected to mark a new record-high, driven by strong growth in Asia.

Starting next year, however, coal use is expected to drop, especially in advanced economies, amid the expansion of renewable energy capacity. The growing use of renewables is expected to be especially notable in China, which at the moment accounts for more than half of global coal demand, according to the agency. By 2026, the IEA sees global coal demand falling by 2.3% compared with 2023 levels.

Overall, the agency predicts that the upcoming shift in coal use will be more significant and long-lasting this time around than in previous periods.

“We have seen declines in global coal demand a few times, but they were brief and caused by extraordinary events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the Covid-19 crisis. This time appears different, as the decline is more structural, driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, said. The analyst noted that while significant efforts are still needed to meet international climate targets, “a turning point for coal is clearly on the horizon.”

https://www.rt.com/business/589140-global-coal-demand-record/

This is an interesting article by the Jacobin about Africa and migration crisis.


https://jacobin.com/2023/12/eu-niger-algeria-migration-borders-debt-energy

Why do the French besiege Paris?, by Valeria Verbinina for VZGLYAD. 01.29.2024.

It is not some foreign conquerors who intend to starve Paris, but French farmers. “We will blockade the city until Parisians experience first-hand what food shortages are like,” their representatives say. The blockade of Paris by agricultural tractors begins on Monday. Why did the French peasantry stage a real riot?

A sharp escalation of the confrontation between the French authorities and agricultural workers began a few weeks ago. One of the reasons is that since last year, new laws, regulations and recommendations on the distribution of subsidies for those involved in agriculture have come into force.

Unfortunately, no matter how beautiful France is, it remains largely a country of bureaucrats. As soon as they came into force, the new regulations began to acquire orders, additions and accumulate inevitable contradictions. To resolve them, new orders were invented, which first had to be agreed upon - and so on endlessly.

As Le Monde writes very vaguely , “agricultural workers are dissatisfied with the abundance of norms and regulations arising from them... many also complain about the complex procedure for accessing assistance from the authorities.” And while bureaucrats are issuing more and more pieces of paper, sweating from administrative zeal, farmers are left without money and without a clear understanding of when this disgrace will end.

Another reason for dissatisfaction is that the government, under pressure from the “greens,” is actively imposing measures on producers that are good in theory, but difficult to implement in practice. From a significant reduction in the use of pesticides and antibiotics to a mandatory requirement that, starting in 2024, some land should be left fallow, that is, unplanted for at least a year.

As Damien Brunel, head of the FGC trade union, noted , “It’s in vain that some people think that such land will turn into flowering fields... you still have to tinker with it, clear it of weeds and cultivate it.” That is, not only do people actually lose part of the land on which they could grow something, but they will also have to spend time and money, receiving absolutely nothing in return.

Agricultural producers also have other complaints - that the government does not sufficiently protect their products, in particular wines and cheeses, on international markets.

The fact that the authorities are consistently reducing subsidies for diesel fuel, which is extremely important for the functioning of the industry. And finally, the lack of response to the epidemic of epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD). Since autumn it has affected some cattle in France. Some animals died, farmers had to treat others at their own expense, the export market closed - and at the same time, problems with selling products within the country worsened.

As a matter of fact, it was precisely because of the epizootic - more precisely, because the authorities stubbornly did not want to notice its consequences - that the confrontation began, eventually taking on such a serious scale. Only when reports from literally everywhere in the province began to come in about spontaneous protests by farmers, including blocking roads with tractors, as well as burning tires and bales of hay near administrative buildings, the government decided to compromise.

On January 18, it promised that the state would reimburse 80% of payments for veterinary services and 80% of the cost of dead animals, and packages of documents for damages could be submitted “in early February.” But it wasted time - and besides, a concession on one point at this stage no longer meant much, because the other problems remained.

And more and more often another problem began to arise - the most important one, with which no one knows what to do. The point is that agricultural workers, in principle, earn too little.

The unrest shaking French society to some extent reflects the antagonism between the capital and the provinces. The farmers' protests mainly affected provincial cities - Bordeaux, Lyon, Rennes, Nantes and others, and one of the slogans of the spontaneous movement was “Do we have to die so that you are fed?” already makes this division between “we” and “you”. In this scheme, “we” are the workers who work tirelessly, who are also obliged to provide a thousand pieces of paper to the top and endlessly rewrite them if even one squiggle is put wrong, and “you” – who only consume without having any obligations.

At the same time, farmers cannot hide the fact that competitors abroad are not asleep. At least in Spain, where labor in the industry is two times cheaper (on average 7 euros per hour, not 15), and the fact that in some EU countries the requirements for agriculture are not as stringent and categorical as in France.

Now it looks like after the provinces, the French capital will have to bear the brunt of the ongoing confrontation.

Irritation in society has already reached the point that trade unionist Maxime Buizard proposed “blocking Paris and its little crown.” By the latter we mean a belt of suburbs that surround the capital in a dense ring. “The idea is that not a single truck will be able to enter the capital next week (that is, from January 29). If necessary, we will blockade the city until the Parisians experience first-hand what food shortages are like. But then they will understand that they need agriculture in order to live,” he said.

At first it seemed that this proposal was too bold to be attempted. However, at a meeting of agricultural unions on Saturday evening, an action plan was developed and a communiqué was published, which stated that “beginning at 2 pm on January 29, agricultural workers ... are undertaking an indefinite siege of the nation’s capital.”

The word “siege” used in the text (yes, that’s it) involuntarily recalls the times described either by Dumas or by Druon. It is, of course, interesting to read about them, but the question is what is it like to live in them, even if this is the 21st century and a “siege” is called the blocking of roads by tractors that lead to the capital. “We will close the strategic road arteries that lead to Paris,” promised the head of the JA union, Clément Torpier. – We are aware that traffic will be difficult... How long this will last depends on the government. If it is necessary to keep (the siege) for several days, it will last for several days.”

On Sunday, newly-minted Prime Minister Gabriel Attal hurriedly went on a visit to one of the farms in the province, where, in the style of Macron, he made many words and promised to encourage all that is good against all that is bad, but in a practical sense nothing concrete. Meanwhile, on the main news channel BFMtv, farmer Severin Sargent, who supports the blockade of Paris, has already promised Parisians a “black week.” “Tractors will advance towards the capital along all the main highways, either quickly and continuously, or in stages... Parisians need to understand that a black week awaits them,” he announced.

The Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, did not reflect on the extent to which these words were a bold bluff, the purpose of which was to extract further concessions, but gathered his subordinates and ordered all measures to be taken to maintain order and prevent a complete blockade of the capital region. In turn, farmers promise to go all the way. However, in any case, time will tell what exactly the next week will be like and what it will bring.

https://vz.ru/world/2024/1/29/1250737.html

European farmers don't need tactical handouts, by Gevorg Mirzayan for RTRUSSIAN. 01.29.2024.

According to the plan of European officials, the sanctions (and generally hybrid) war of the European Union against Russia was supposed to cause large-scale protests in Russian cities. And it really did cause problems - just not in Russia, but in Europe. Polish, German, French and other farmers not only block roads and organize pickets, but also resort to much less civilized forms of struggle. For example, in France they pour manure on buildings.

And it’s difficult to accuse them of hooliganism, because all European farmers, in essence, are protecting their future.

The fact is that the agricultural sector in Europe is very specific. Firstly, it is very heavily subsidized so that farmers do not go bankrupt and, in conditions of high production costs, can sell it at prices acceptable to the population. Secondly, it is strictly quotas by country - so that there is no crisis of overproduction in the EU and there is no fall in prices. Thirdly, agricultural products from foreign countries trying to enter European markets are subject to protective duties.

Accordingly, farmers are very wary of any projects on duty-free import of any agricultural products into the EU. And the European Union not only allowed such imports from Ukraine, but also intends to conclude a free trade agreement with Mercosur (the community of South American countries). And all this is happening against the backdrop of rising prices for fuel for tractors and fertilizers (for which thanks to European sanctions against Russia), reductions in subsidies for farmers (for which thanks to the economic crisis caused, among other things, by sanctions against Russia) and the obsession of the liberal European elites with “ecological” agriculture, which also leads to higher costs of production, and therefore to a decrease in its competitiveness.

So people take to the streets, resorting to the most extravagant measures in order to be heard. And it would seem that they achieved their goal. European leaders are one by one declaring their readiness to make concessions to the protesters. “We decided to put agriculture above all else. I want to unlock, liberate, simplify life and let our farmers breathe freely,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. In addition, he announced a program to stimulate protectionism. “We must tell all French people to always prefer to buy French, whoever can, of course. And we must also tell everyone responsible for public procurement to join this effort,” the prime minister added. Finally, he promised to satisfy their other demands - in particular, to freeze the rise in fuel prices for special equipment.

The Polish authorities also promise to help, and, of course, they acknowledge the damage associated with the Ukrainian factor. “The trade liberalization introduced in 2022, allowing Ukraine to import its goods without customs duties, is very beneficial for the Ukrainian economy, but should not harm Polish farmers,” admits Polish Minister of Agriculture Czeslaw Sekierski. “I think that all or almost all of us in Poland would like to effectively support Ukraine in its clash with Russia. But this cannot be done at the expense of large interest groups such as farmers or transport operators,” says Donald Tusk.
The problem, however, is that farmers are not happy with these concessions. They don't leave the streets. And they can be understood: tactical concessions and empty recognitions from Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and other capitals do not solve the problem. This requires strategic decisions, and at the level of the leadership of all EU member countries.

First, the European Union must define what it is. A supranational integration project created to ensure security and improve the living standards of member countries, or a geopolitical hammer of the United States? A hammer, for the effective operation of which the national economy can be sacrificed and external states must be allowed into the closed markets of the European community to support their pants at the expense of European citizens. “Task No. 1 is to stop the import of agricultural products from Ukraine,” says former Polish Minister of Agriculture Janusz Kowalski.

Secondly, the leadership of the European Union must understand what underlies integration - ideology or economics?

Neoliberal values, which are the product of snickering elites and leading to both economic and social degradation, or are they still economic tasks that the leadership of the European Commission must carry out in accordance with European conservative, capitalist values?

The European Commission itself will not be able to correct the mistakes. Both the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and her European commissioners are bearers of ultra-liberal ideas, promoters of Washington’s interests in the European Union. This means that by default they are not able to take care of the welfare of European citizens. At a minimum, because they place the welfare of these citizens lower than the interests of the same Ukrainian leadership.

If the leaders of the EU member countries do not urgently restore order now, then the matter will not be limited to protests by farmers. A sharp process of disintegration within the European Union will begin, as citizens realize: the leadership in Brussels, not elected or supported by them, does not protect their interests. And the national leaders who support the Brussels leadership are not defending either. This means that new leaders need to be elected from among the right and far-right politicians speaking under the slogan of nationalism and the withdrawal of their countries from the European Union that has become alien to them.

https://russian.rt.com/opinion/1264906-mirzayan-evropa-fermer-bunt

Have Mercosur farmers confront Macron, as well as an Argentinian farmer march over Buenos Aires.

Global South farmers unite against that EU agriculture policy just coughed up by Manu.

Normies laughed at "tin foil hat conspiracy theories" about one world government. But the facts on the ground prove that there is exactly
such an agenda. The ambition of the NATzO elite (US based with some branches in the EU) is to have total monolithic control. Power
has the propensity to concentrate. To become absolute. It is already corrupt. Checks and balances are BS for the normie proles to
get distracted.

Getting rid of farmers is getting rid of elements that are independent. The EU is going to have only corporate farms owned by US megacorps
in the near future. They will be producing garbage "food" that will keep the normie chattle low grade sick and pacified. The EU puppet
administrators will be using any pretext to get rid of farms. The current most popular one is global warming.

At the end of the day, the problems of civilization rest on the pathetic ignorance of the proles. They can be used as a resource by a tiny
minority since they can be hoodwinked 24/7. Their priority is conforming and not independent thought. Using that grey matter muscle is
the hardest thing for these people.

Frenchie "Operation Turtle" over the Mercosur/EU deal.

France's firm rejection of EU-Mercosur deal sparks rift with Germany and opens controversy in the bloc, 01.31.2024.

According to the head of the German Automotive Industry Association, the EU always "makes overly complex agreements [...] and fails to achieve anything in any of the economic areas". Berlin proposed an alternative for signing the pact, which was also rejected by Paris.

Since the beginning of this week, Emmanuel Macron has verbalised that the ratification of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur has no chance of being finalized since "it is impossible to sign it".

Not only did the president tell the European Commission this, but also members of his government. On Wednesday (31), the minister of Economy and Finance of France, Bruno Le Maire, said that the trade agreement with Mercosur should not be signed, according to Folha de São Paulo.

However, there are those who are irritated by this positioning. According to Jamil Chad's column in Brazilian outlet UOL, for Germany, rejecting the agreement does not make sense, especially given the export interest of the car sector.

"The German government remains firmly committed to concluding negotiations with Mercosur countries as soon as possible," a spokesman for the German Economy Ministry said in response to the French veto.


Berlin pointed out that a few weeks ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Argentine president Javier Milei. Both "agreed that negotiations should be concluded quickly."

The European Commission also rejected on Tuesday the French view that Brussels had ended negotiations with Mercosur, saying it still intended to conclude the Free Trade Agreement with the South American bloc, which has been negotiated for 25 years.

Brazil also reacted to the decline in Paris. The secretary of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and services, Tatiana Prazeres, said yesterday (30) that the negotiations take place within the blocs, and not between countries: "Mercosur negotiates with the [European] Commission, not with member states," she said.

"Negotiations for an agreement with Mercosur have been dragging on for more than 20 years [...] We make overly complex agreements and end up harming ourselves because we have not been able to achieve anything in any of the economic areas [...] every agreement that is not concluded strengthens others and weakens us. Sometimes it is possible to see that people get stuck on a single issue. In [negotiations with] Mexico it is energy policy, in Mercosur it is Agricultural Policy, and all other sectors suffer from it [...] therefore, we must also consider whether these trade agreements should be divided into parts so that they can take effect," said Hildegard Muller, head of the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA).

Yandex Translate from Portuguese

https://sputniknewsbr.com.br/20240131/firme-recusa-da-franca-para-acordo-ue-mercosul-gera-racha-com-alemanha-e-abre-polemica-no-bloco-32815905.html