World Economic News and Discussion

In the realm of fantasy, if the Saudis plays even more dirty, maybe some covert spetsnaz can blow some oilfield in Saudi Arabia (just kidding)

Its a dangerous play for the Saudis, they are confident in their army and the friendship with USA Israel, but some well planned sabotages and tensions with Iran can make oil pricess pop if the situation becomes critical.  Russia knows this, and they are playing nice right now, but patience has limits. I think that Saudis look strong but they are deeply weak in the sense that the royal family is closely attached to the USA establishment and very often they do thing that are not good for the saudi people. When things like ISIS and Shia guerrillas, terrorist attacks, tensions with their neibourghs and eventual problems with their oil production, they will be in a very hard position and then, making friends with China and Russia will not look like a bad idea. It is a really complex issue.

Well, well, well...look what we have here, apparently Atlantacist media had you thinking that Russia was the biggest loser from cheap Brent Oil prices, it looks like Atlantacists are now $200 billion in debt trying  to create their Shale 'pipedream' in North America, which is now going bust due to the fact that Brent Oil price is at such a low price:

$200 bn in debt looms over American oil and gas

...Their speculative attacks against Russia are now backfiring...

magnumcromagnon wrote:Well, well, well...look what we have here, apparently Atlantacist media had you thinking that Russia was the biggest loser from cheap Brent Oil prices, it looks like Atlantacists are now $200 billion in debt trying  to create their Shale 'pipedream' in North America, which is now going bust due to the fact that Brent Oil price is at such a low price:

$200 bn in debt looms over American oil and gas

...Their speculative attacks against Russia are now backfiring...

But don't celebrate too much...  I think they were ready to sacrifice the bankruptcy of many of their business in order to collapse Russia energy industry.. and hopefully bankrupt the nation.. I don't think they will win ,because Russia is not as dependent of energy sales alone as western media claims..aside that the cost of producing oil for Russia is very low $5 per barrel.. and as high as $15 per barrel in some places ,so Russia do have the capabilities to operate selling oil at just $20 per barrel for years contrary to USA and CANADA. In 1998 to 2003 oil price was from $15 dollars per barrel to $30 , the average was $20 and Russia managed it while in the middle of a war in chechenia.

Today Russia have near 400 $ billions in reserves to finance their own energy industry.. and China a nation with 4 $ trillions reserves will not allow Russia economy to break..and will be ready to help..if they have the need.

So pretty much US Gov is on a medium scale economic warfare against Russia.. and they are literary collapsing
their own energy business to collapse Russia energy industry. Is a very risky game what they are playing.. because
of the low debt of Russia and the low cost of producing oil for them and the backup they will have of China.
The big risk is that Russia do not fall and they end with their energy industry destroyed.. and people move away
of their dollar. Essentially starting the downfall of their world currency status.

All this shows.. how really desperate are the AngloZionist elite to stop RUssia ,that are attacking their own energy
business in order to damage Russia.

Vann7 wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Well, well, well...look what we have here, apparently Atlantacist media had you thinking that Russia was the biggest loser from cheap Brent Oil prices, it looks like Atlantacists are now $200 billion in debt trying  to create their Shale 'pipedream' in North America, which is now going bust due to the fact that Brent Oil price is at such a low price:

$200 bn in debt looms over American oil and gas

...Their speculative attacks against Russia are now backfiring...

But don't celebrate too much...  I think they were ready to sacrifice the bankruptcy of many of their business in order to collapse Russia energy industry.. and hopefully bankrupt the nation.. I don't think they will win ,because Russia is not as dependent of energy sales alone as western media claims..aside that the cost of producing oil for Russia is very low $5 per barrel.. and as high as $15 per barrel in some places ,so Russia do have the capabilities to operate selling oil at just $20 per barrel for years contrary to USA and CANADA. In 1998 to 2003 oil price was from $15 dollars per barrel to $30 , the average was $20 and Russia managed it while in the middle of a war in chechenia.

Today Russia have near 400 $ billions in reserves to finance their own energy industry.. and China a nation with 4 $ trillions reserves will not allow Russia economy to break..and will be ready to help..if they have the need.

So pretty much US Gov is on a medium scale economic warfare against Russia.. and they are literary collapsing
their own energy business to collapse Russia energy industry. Is a very risky game what they are playing.. because
of the low debt of Russia and the low cost of producing oil for them and the backup they will have of China.
The big risk is that Russia do not fall and they end with their energy industry destroyed.. and people move away
of their dollar. Essentially starting the downfall of their world currency status.

All this shows.. how really desperate are the AngloZionist elite to stop RUssia ,that are attacking their own energy
business in order to damage Russia.

I don't know if that whole raising oil production thing was deliberately targetted at Russia or not. I suspect it was, but in that case the irony would be if the US's own oil production tanks because of the low oil prices - that's ultimately going to lead to higher oil prices later on as the supply would go down while the world's demand will keep growing - and grow even faster in fact because of the low price of oil.

i read an article the other day it was saying that cracks are already starting to show in saudi's plans, even some of their own financial experts have expressed concern mainly due to the impact it will have on its own countries wealth, they have already said they will have to start using there money reserves in order to cope with deficit caused by the price drop, and how long and how much are they willing to deplete their reserves to?

Saudi's oil plans effect everyone icluding its neighbours who aren't best pleased with their actions, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, have already expressed concerns and have stated this can't go on. They too will have to dig into their money reserves.

Question is how long before countries start to get Pi*sed off with Saudi thinking it can hold to world to ransom on oil just so some king can beat his chest and say look at me, look how powerful i can be. Saudi want to show the world what they can do and how much power they hold, without nuclear weapons. They want countries to think ok we better listen to them and not pi*s them off. This is all it is.

But a part of me thinks has USA had a quiet word in Saudi's ear asking them to do this to apply more pressure on Russia? USA knows Russia makes a lot of its money from oil, and its looking like the current sanctions weren't swaying Putin's mind.

The Saudis can continue quite a lot with these prices. The problem they face is that with they oil roundabout 50$ they can't really expect to break any of their serious competitors.
They have to push even further but they already face strong resistance. The small rigs and the high-cost small private extractors already shut down, especially the high seas and the shale oil. To push even further and hit the major oil fields they need to go down to 30 or less where profits can make pretty much only the middle east and some Russian fields.
But I don't think they have the capacity to go that much.
If we don't have pretty soon some major player like Venezuela or Libya or Iraq or Netherlands go bust then it goes for a stalemate and they have gain pretty much nothing but a new global economic crisis and probably ISIS hitting their own soil.

Needless to say this pretty much play the cards of China who is the one with the huge gains here.
Incidentally guess who is the largest export and import trading partner of Saudi Arabia...

Austin wrote:Brent today is at 51.76 , WTI at 48.86

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Rouble is tanking at  63.11

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


From the trends I have observed for ever $10 drop in price of Oil ( Brent ) Rouble tanks down by 10-15 Rouble generaly on higher side.

So its easy to guess now of Brent reaches $40 then Rouble would be around 80

Austin,

Beware of oversimplifications.
Things are not as linear as they may seem.

Oil is now below $50 and Rouble is a bit stronger at around 60 - 62 against the US$.

The market has already taken into account that oil will go down to around $40 per barrel, that is already reflected in the price of the Rouble.

Nvm not worth the effort.

http://www.svd.se/naringsliv/tillvaxtlanderna-gar-framat-pa-bred-front_6422272.svd

- "The emerging importance increases and the dollar's dominance can be broken in 2025, writes the World Bank in a study. By 2050, Asia account for half the world economy and three billion more Asians live in prosperity, but there are many traps on the way, says the Asian Development Bank in a Another vision of the future.

China is estimated on average to maintain a growth of about 7 percent per year until 2025, when China can have an equally large economy like Japan, India, Brazil and Russia. India's economy is stimulated by the country has a young population, but slowed down by "relatively low levels of education." Russia's growth held back by political problems,

The first and most sought-after scenario called "Asian Century". When Asia 2050 stand for half the world economy, or nearly 150 000 billion dollars of GDP, calculated at current prices. Then the average per capita income nearly 39,000 dollars per year, much like in Europe now. In this case, an additional approximately three billion Asians lifted from poverty to prosperity.

Seven Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) are expected to lead the development and account for 90 percent of Asia's GDP in 2050. "

Any opinions or facts about this? I think that India's GDP will be bigger than US's 2050, it's fantastic that the living standard will be the same in Asia as in Europe today 2050. I think Asia should focus on a closer cooperation both military and economic for a strong development in the world and Asia should also work for closer cooperation between Asia and Europe and US. Asia should also work for development in Africa and stand for a prosper, peaceful and developing world and a fair Asia. Any know how the economic development in Africa will be? What is your opinion?

/Henrik

World’s biggest economies in 2030

Ahahahaha. Every single one of the predictions were false before. And will be again. Dont bother posting this garbage. Canada larger economy than Russia? We are in deep trouble right now, worst off actually, as we are racking up a huge debt.

Other thing to keep in mind, if the debt isnt paid, it can destroy a lot of these nations who are debt ridden.

GDP PPP, russia is larger than Brazil. GDP nominal is also a joke since Russia is sanctioned thus does not have full access to various goods, throwing out the purpose of nominal.

Check out the bottom:-
"Source US Dept of Agriculture"

America's economic stats are like two corner shops buy and selling each others stock ALL DAY long.
Its got more air in it than a fart factory (if one was ever built).

And as for the 2.4 tr. "estimate" for Russia, it really goes to show what a bunch of comedians is running the United Snakes.

But once you take out factors like purchasing power parity and VELOCITY of money supply, the Eurasian UNion and the EU will be pretty similar in 2030. As will the US.

However, the Eurasian Union will see substantial std of living growth and "real economy" growth.
Europe will be stagnant. And for many Americans, they will see a lessening of std of living.

sepheronx wrote:Ahahahaha. Every single one of the predictions were false before. And will be again. Dont bother posting this garbage. Canada larger economy than Russia? We are in deep trouble right now, worst off actually, as we are racking up a huge debt.

Other thing to keep in mind, if the debt isnt paid, it can destroy a lot of these nations who are debt ridden.

They'll be building an "Iraq case" next. Sort of "we must rescue the Russian people from the evil Putin with our military strikes. Look how he keeps them in abject poverty".

America is run by absolute nutcases. Very sad for normal Americans. Choice between Hillary the Slag Clinton and Jeb as dim as his brother Bush. Talk about a banana republic.

Russia GDP will be twice the size of Holland. With its 18m people.

Comedy gold... hahah

Oil prices i think was the thing that most hit Russia economy. .I think Russia should really consider ARming the houthi Rebels with cheap weapons and RPG-7 and take the fight to saudi Arabia and overthrow their king. or at very least attack Saudi Oil Fields.. and shut them down..
for months .. That will allow Russia to cover Saudi Exports and Oil prices should go to $100 if not more in no time.

If US is arming so called "freedom fighters" in Syria..by Obama, i don't see why Russia cannot do the same and arm Rebels in Yemen and give them manpads and rocket grenades to take full control of Yemen.. and take the fight to Saudi side.

This has little to do with oil and all about bullshit. If it had to do woth oil, Canada wouldnt be as high on this "chart" because half of our wealth is in oil itself and other is automotive sales, which have dropped and constantly needing bailing out.

Debt is the problem here and they keep accumulating debt as a form of wealth. If you owe the bank on a mortgage of $300,000 and you are still paying it off, does that mean you have money? Does it mean you own the house? No. But yet governments somehow think that debt is their wealth. Ever notice how if the debt ceiling is increased, so does US GDP? It is one sham after another - funny money. All thanks to voodoo economics - reaganomics.

In US, sales have dropped to 2009 level and spending an all time low, yet their stocks do well. Wonder why? Well, the fed is buying stocks like crazy and companies buying back their own stocks. Russia doesnt seem to have this plague. They refused QE which US and EU are doing it almost on a quarterly basis. At this point, Russian, Brazilian and Indian markets are far more honest and real than others, who are using money tricks and relabeling terms to "prop" thenselves up. Hopefully by 2030, that bubble will burst and the real graph will look nothing like this.

Austin wrote:World’s biggest economies in 2030

This graph is a joke.

Look at the size of Russia's GDP in 2015 it is close to what Saudi Arabia "will be" in 2030: 1.3 trillion dollars.
Russia's nominal GDP in 2013 was 2.2 trillion. Let's multiply that by 35/55 to account for the exchange
rate slide of the ruble. This gives 1.4 trillion. So Russia's GDP will grow from 1.4 to 2.4 trillion in 15 years.
OK, then we have

1.4*(1+x)^15 = 2.4 => 1+x = (2.4/1.4)^(1/15)=1.0366 => 3.66% growth per year

That is actually not a shabby growth rate. But wait, the inflation in the USA and Russia are different.
So the exchange rate will drift in real terms. This happened between 2000 and 2014. The ruble
rate went from 27 to the dollar to 35 to the dollar even though there was more than 10% of inflation
in Russia and only 2-3% in the USA. So in fact the ruble appreciated by over 7% per year relative to
the dollar.

Now let that one sink in for a bit. The exchange rate has been systematically changing with time. So
you simply cannot use a fixed fraction (35/55) for the next 15 years. Let's assume we have the same
pattern and there is a 7% currency appreciation due just to inflation effects. (I know the ruble is now
free floating, but the CBR was not burning $400 billion per year between 2000 and 2014 to prop it up
so it must have been following the market value, which suggests we may see the ruble back to the 40s
per dollar). So,

(35/55)*(1.07)^15 = 2.76

So Russia's nominal GDP in 2030 would be 2.4*2.76=6.62 trillion dollars.

Obviously the above pattern will not hold for Canada, France, Germany, UK and Japan. Their relative inflation
rates are very similar. Also, Japan has a shrinking population with school closures everywhere. So you can
expect its GDP to decrease over the next 15 years as it is stalled already for the last 20 years.

The above highlights why nominal GDP comparisons are for retards. You may as well compare the size of
economies using the number of farts or pigeon droppings. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjustments address
partly this exchange rate nonsense. They are inadequate because they use a basket of consumer
goods as a basis for comparison. They need to compare whole industries. If Russia can build six Project 636.3
diesel-electric submarines for the price of a single Japanese Soryu class boat of the same class, then you can't
willy nilly apply nominal prices can you.

As we already beat to death in this thread, Russia's economy did not shrink by 35/55 since last fall. In fact,
the GDP went up by 0.4% in the 1st quarter compared to 2014.

Can anyone explain how US is expecting to add another 8 trillion growth in its GDP in coming next 15 years . From 16 Trillion to 24 Trillion . Ofcoure it's a US source estimate . Personally speaking it's BS . By 2030 we'll see China surpassing already .

Austin wrote:World’s biggest economies in 2030

Why is US Department of Agriculture doing global GDP predictions? (Seriously...) Is that the original source?

Most forecasts expect China to overtake US in dollar terms before 2030, something like 2025-28, but who knows...

Also, it seems that they expect Russian population to decrease considerably. Does it seems likely? It's growing right now and that was never supposed to happen according to western estimates.

In 2030 Russian economy will not be any bigger than it was in 2013 but Brazil is going to be almost twice as large (4 trillion), and UK and France 1 trillion bigger? WTF!?

Kimppis wrote:

Austin wrote:World’s biggest economies in 2030

Why is US Department of Agriculture doing global GDP predictions? (Seriously...) Is that the original source?

Most forecasts expect China to overtake US in dollar terms before 2030, something like 2025-28, but who knows...

Also, it seems that they expect Russian population to decrease considerably. Does it seems likely? It's growing right now and that was never supposed to happen according to western estimates.

In 2030 Russian economy will not be any bigger than it was in 2013 but Brazil is going to be almost twice as large (4 trillion), and UK and France 1 trillion bigger? WTF!?

The report is simply wrong and misleading.. Calculate Russia economy based on how is the ratio
today of Dollar vs Ruble.. with the assumption that the Dollar will remain the world currency
and trading at the same ration.. Reality is there will be no world currency anymore.. and at very least half of the planet EuroAsia ,Latin America will be trading in local currencies. that will
be a major blow to US dollar. and it could seriously devalue . The prediction of analyst is a multi currency world.  If Saudi Arabia experience its own freedom fighters proxy war and democracy installed , you bet US will lose its influence there as happened with IRAQ and Egypt..  and no longer Dollars will be used for Oil trading in middle east.. that will be huge.. Dollar value should be losing at least half its value in the next decade. Then the Tables will flip.. Because also the Euro will devalue since its highly connected to US economy.. Russia in the other hand will be more integrated with BRICS so will not experience same hit.

I really think in the next decade Russia should be in the top 3 or 4 economies in the world..
with their integration with CHINA and Brics,nuclear reactors , and selling a lot of Oil And GAS.
and with the raise of world population ,energy demands will only increase in the next decades.
CHina own estimates is that in 20 years ,its energy demands will TRIPLE.. Imagine how much
money Russia will make selling OIL and GAS to china. but also to Europe.

So by 2025.. 1)CHina should be leading economy.. Followed by 2)USA , then 3)India ,then 4)Russia and after that 5)Germany , 6)Brazil , 7)France and 8)Japan. My belief is Energy will
become a very lucrative and profitable business more than ever. and that energy prices with Demand will significantly increase.. and we could see some players out of the market.. Like US Shale Oil for the contamination and Saudi Arabia out of business for the civil wars that will come
at their doorstep . So expect Oil hitting record high $120 to $200+ in just a year or two.. once
a major war start in Saudi Arabia and their oil fields destroyed.

Oil hitting 120 $ in next two years ? FORGET IT . It will move to 75 handle till next year . Currently its floating near 60 $

How old was that hillbilly at the USDA? 6?

Russian and Mexican GDP to be the same? LMFAO

GDP nominal is a joke but Russian economy is far from being advanced. There is a tonne of things that need to be done until Russia will be able to close on Germany and Japan.

Ru ec is advanced in some areas, not so advanced in others.
Russia's weakest aspect seems to have been housing standards for many. However this is improving.
Whereas in England, many young people cant even afford to rent, let alone buy.

The employment situation is better in Russia than the EU, by quite a way. And its not just unemployment, but under employment. eg Oxbridge grads working in McDonalds, in England!

Likewise many Americans live in utter squalor and poverty. Young people in the EU are basically the forgotten generation. Many Russians would be shocked at some of it.

If you look at an American's income (or absence of it) then factor in college debt repayments, medical insurance (and what it DOESNT cover) and then property prices, fuel prices etc, then you realise that things aren't so great for many in the West.

Russians aren't having to compete with legal/illegal labour from Africa/Asia and even legal labour from the lower waged places of the EU. You compare that to the reality of so called rich countries like England and America.

PS another method of over inflating GDP.
British people often cant afford kids. So they are givn a state benefit called a "tax credit" for famlies.
This is a huge part of the income for many working families. But its not a tax credit, its a state benefit.
In the British media low taxes are "cool" but "benefits" are only for "lazy workshy scroungers" in their claim. But its all bullshit. It fails to conceal how so many cant afford kids or a home. In a supposedly rich country.

They seem to be looking mostly at Ruble value and not actual value of its economy. Russias tough year is this year and next year not so much. Actually, while Ruble is very low now, it benefits them more. It. Is lower than Mexican Peso thus why they assume Mexico's economy, which isnt really weak. Mexico has their problems but they are a strong growing nation with a relative high growth rate. They are a very industrious country mostly.

The other interesting tidbit is that in 2008/9 they predicted doom for Russia when the year prior they predicted major growth. But 2008/9 Russia saw a GDP decline of 9% and the ruble was still same value then as it was early last year so they faced a real decline. This year, a huge decline, is mostly in currency value. But production has stayed mostly the same (growth in various other areas mixed in with major decline in automotive) so its balanced while rubles value softened the blow for low oil prices. If they keep currency in the 50's, even if Oil goes up, they would be laughing.

The chart takes all this year and multipies it by 15 more or less. So in other words, they expect this years trend to happen for the next 15 years. Which is of course, complete bull. We may see economies collapsing due to excessive debt and China may lose a lot but gain a lot in other areas while Iran may see massive growth in coming years.

Just look at previous charts, I dont think a single one came true. Add in that most economic troubles happen all of a sudden and were not predicted. Also, dunno why an Agriculture group is doing such a study.

One thing to look at is the de-dollarization. Once the world moves away from the dollar towards inter currency exchanges, the US cannot simply print at major rates like they could before, thus they will eventually need to pay off their debts and reduce deficite to the point they need a surplus. This will in turn greatly reduce living standards and commodity and housing market will fall too. Benefit will be is that they will gear closer to a real economy and spend within reason vs the grotesque system now.