Austin wrote:World’s biggest economies in 2030

This graph is a joke.
Look at the size of Russia's GDP in 2015 it is close to what Saudi Arabia "will be" in 2030: 1.3 trillion dollars.
Russia's nominal GDP in 2013 was 2.2 trillion. Let's multiply that by 35/55 to account for the exchange
rate slide of the ruble. This gives 1.4 trillion. So Russia's GDP will grow from 1.4 to 2.4 trillion in 15 years.
OK, then we have
1.4*(1+x)^15 = 2.4 => 1+x = (2.4/1.4)^(1/15)=1.0366 => 3.66% growth per year
That is actually not a shabby growth rate. But wait, the inflation in the USA and Russia are different.
So the exchange rate will drift in real terms. This happened between 2000 and 2014. The ruble
rate went from 27 to the dollar to 35 to the dollar even though there was more than 10% of inflation
in Russia and only 2-3% in the USA. So in fact the ruble appreciated by over 7% per year relative to
the dollar.
Now let that one sink in for a bit. The exchange rate has been systematically changing with time. So
you simply cannot use a fixed fraction (35/55) for the next 15 years. Let's assume we have the same
pattern and there is a 7% currency appreciation due just to inflation effects. (I know the ruble is now
free floating, but the CBR was not burning $400 billion per year between 2000 and 2014 to prop it up
so it must have been following the market value, which suggests we may see the ruble back to the 40s
per dollar). So,
(35/55)*(1.07)^15 = 2.76
So Russia's nominal GDP in 2030 would be 2.4*2.76=6.62 trillion dollars.
Obviously the above pattern will not hold for Canada, France, Germany, UK and Japan. Their relative inflation
rates are very similar. Also, Japan has a shrinking population with school closures everywhere. So you can
expect its GDP to decrease over the next 15 years as it is stalled already for the last 20 years.
The above highlights why nominal GDP comparisons are for retards. You may as well compare the size of
economies using the number of farts or pigeon droppings. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjustments address
partly this exchange rate nonsense. They are inadequate because they use a basket of consumer
goods as a basis for comparison. They need to compare whole industries. If Russia can build six Project 636.3
diesel-electric submarines for the price of a single Japanese Soryu class boat of the same class, then you can't
willy nilly apply nominal prices can you.
As we already beat to death in this thread, Russia's economy did not shrink by 35/55 since last fall. In fact,
the GDP went up by 0.4% in the 1st quarter compared to 2014.