Cold War II

Opinions section, TASS
19 Apr, 14:15

"Pacific NATO" wants to expand at the expense of Japan?

Vasily Golovnin on the prospects for Japan to join the US, UK and Australia in AUKUS


In mid-April, a small sensation stirred up Japanese political life - the US, UK and Australia were allegedly informally aggressively inviting Tokyo to join their still trilateral AUKUS military partnership, which these countries created last fall mainly to counter China. And now, of course, Russia.
The news was reported by the Sankei Shimbun newspaper, citing insider sources, and the information was immediately denied by the government. Japanese cabinet secretary general Hirokazu Matsuno said at a press conference in Tokyo that reports of attempts to connect Japan to AUKUS "are not true."

However, they did not really believe the refutation - Tokyo's proximity to the United States, Britain and Australia is beyond doubt, and military contacts have been growing between them for a long time and firmly. Therefore, it seems to me that creating some special relationship with AUKUS would be quite logical. Tokyo, for example, has the official status of a NATO partner, and Japanese representatives work at the alliance's headquarters on a permanent basis. In addition, Sankei Shimbun is known for good sources of information, including in military circles.


Little Japanese NATO


According to the newspaper, Australia, Great Britain and the United States are primarily interested in connecting the economic and technological potential of Japan to military development, which is supposed to be carried out on a collective basis. We are talking about the creation of hypersonic weapons, means of electronic and cyber warfare, the use of artificial intelligence devices and cryptosystems for the needs of the armed forces. Tokyo, by the way, is already developing in these areas. The whole problem, apparently, may lie precisely in the form of registration of cooperation.

According to the Sankei Shimbun, there are fervent supporters in Tokyo for a formal partnership that is said to boost China's collective containment capability. At the same time, there are adherents of a more cautious approach. They are in favor of developing contacts based on bilateral relations with the United States, Great Britain and Australia, with which Tokyo already has separate agreements on military cooperation.
It should be borne in mind that Japan, paradoxically, has already almost created its own small NATO. It has extensive systems of bilateral military agreements not only with the US, but also with Australia, Britain, France and even India. Attempts are being made to build something similar with Vietnam and the Philippines. The agreements create a legal basis for holding joint military exercises, importing weapons and ammunition from foreign armies, and in some cases allow for mutual support in combat conditions.


AUKUS plans

Against this background, by the way, in Tokyo they can leave contacts with AUKUS at an active informal level, so as not to tie their hands and not create an open crisis in relations with China. Proponents of a cautious approach also refer to the fact that Japan's legislation still retains vague restrictions on participation in multilateral military alliances.
However, this, of course, is unlikely to interfere with cooperation in the joint development of weapons with the AUKUS countries. And in general, it is obvious that Japan, as the main Pacific ally of the United States, is a natural partner of this structure, even if Tokyo does not enter into it in an official capacity.

As part of a trilateral agreement signed in September 2021, Canberra primarily plans to build at least eight nuclear submarines for itself with the help of American and British technologies, the first of which is expected to enter the country's navy in 2036. It is also about equipping the Australian Armed Forces with American long-range cruise missiles. Members of AUKUS this year also announced their intention to cooperate in the creation of hypersonic combat systems.


Second Front in the South Pacific

This "troika" has an addition in the region - a dialogue on security issues Quad ("Four"). It includes Australia, India, the United States and Japan, which regularly conduct fairly large-scale joint naval exercises, sometimes with the involvement of France as well. However, the scope of the "Four" is trying to expand, extending it to cooperation in new technologies and other civilian projects. This structure is actively invited, for example, South Korea; I think there are some plans for other countries in the region as well.

Russia and China have repeatedly, including at the level of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressed alarm and displeasure in connection with the creation of such structures. Beijing, for example, claims that the emergence of AUKUS is based on the Cold War mentality and will exacerbate the arms race. The PRC also called this grouping "an attempt to create a Pacific NATO."

China's concern is understandable - equipping the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered missile submarines, for example, seriously worsens China's strategic position in the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean, in fact opening a second front to counter Beijing there. The same submarines will be able to operate along with the American and Japanese off the Russian coast. In addition, the naval exercises of the Quartet member countries have already taken place in addition to the Indian Ocean and in the waters of the Far East.

https://tass.ru/opinions/14411253