Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

AMCXXL wrote:

Kimppis wrote:Well, I think his numbers for 2027 are generally accurate, especially when it comes to tactical aircraft. I and AMCXXL have come to very similar conclusions on this very forum.

Are you saying that they are only going to order Su-57s after 2018/20? That Russia is going to stop buying additional Su-35s and Su-34s, in particular? Why? How?  

All the remaining planes are going to be replaced by Su-57s? That they're going to somehow order more than a squadron worth of Su-57s annually?

1. keep in mind that Russia didn't order more than a hundred Su-35s between 2010 and 2020, so how many Su-57 could they possibly have in 2030? and 2. that Su-57 is Russia's F-22, not F-35, there were never any plans to procure more than 200-250 of them for the RuAF.  

Russia will continue buying Su-34 , Su-35 and Su-30SM in the same rates that now (aproximately)
Russia will buy every year at least one squadron of Su-35 and Su-34 until Su-27 and SU-24 are totally replaced.
In the case of Su-30SM about 20 airplanes/year for VVS and Navy
For 2020 the most of soviet not-modernized combat airplanes shuold be replaced (Su-27, Mig-29,Su-24) or modernized (MiG-31 , Su-25)
Only a few MiG-29 (mainly two seaters of instruction units) and the Su-24MR will continue in service after 2020 , waiting for replacement of MiG-35 and Su-34M

The Su-57 Project is still green. For 2020 only 12 airplanes and after that low rates of purchases, not more of 8-10 per year for at least ane dozen of years
In adition Rusia cannot buy all the airplanes they need in 10 years. The VVS rearming is a long-term planning of at least 20 years
Su-57 is not a priority rigth now, but it is a neccesary step for 6º generation. I dont think that finally Russia will purchase more of 4 or 5 regiments
You ony have to think that USA has 160 really full-equiped F-22

I think this is a preview that leads to a total production of Fighters (FAS and FMR) significantly higher than what can be expected as average production for the following years and in the long term.

In order to create not expectations about a level of produciton that would not be near the reality, somethings about projections for the long term must be explained. You can read about it here:

https://www.russiadefence.net/t7032p50-state-armament-program-2018-2027#216051

http://mosaica.ru/ru/federal/news/2018/01/25/v-2018-godu-rossiiskaya-armiya-poluchit-na-vooruzhenie-18-su-34
In 2018, the Russian army will receive 18 Su-34
Deliveries will be made by the Novosibirsk plant.
Until the end of 2018, the Russian army will receive 18 Su-34 fighter-bombers.
This was stated by Deputy Defense Minister Yury Borisov: "We have a long contract with the Novosibirsk plant - the manufacturer, and the number of the last one is the same. It should have been 16, it will be 18, "RNS agency quotes him. Earlier it was reported that the Russian army would receive the Drel airbomb, as well as hypersonic missiles in the framework of the new weapons program

Then , the number of combat airplanes to produce in 2018 by Russian Aerospace Industry:

18 Su-34 (Enough for complete the Chelyabisnk regiment)
14 Su-30SM  (Also other 4 for Belarus, 4 ? for Kazhalstan , and perhaps 2 Su-30SME for Burma/Myanmar, totalling 24 ? produced by IAPO)
10 Su-35S (Also 10 SU-35 for China that ends the contract of 24 with that country, totalling 20 produced by KnAAPO)

The total number of 42 is according with the numbers last year.
About MiG-35 it is still not clear of in 2018 will start the procurement to the tropos, as the announced contract is still not signed


About modernizations, were announced:
6 Su-27SM(3) that will complete the Krymsk regiment
13 MiG-31BM that probably will end the modernization BM
For the moment it s not clear if will be more Su-25SM(3) , despite was announced more Su-25SM(3) for the east regiments

Also, still are pending to send to the homebase 16 Su-25SM(3) produced last two years and flying in Kubinka since november.
Also about half a dozen of MiG-31BM are pending to fly to Perm regiment, of the production of 23 in announced in 2017

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2018/08/16/778384-do-kontsa-goda-ne-menee-istrebitelei

Until the end of the year, the Ministry of Defense will purchase at least 36 Su-30SM fighters
This will be one of the largest contracts of the Ministry of Defense in 2018
At the end of 2018, the Russian Defense Ministry may purchase, in the framework of a three-year contract, at least 36 Su-30SM multifunctional fighters for the Aerospace and Aviation of the Navy produced by the Irkutsk Aircraft Plant (IAZ, which is a part of the Irkut-based United Aircraft Corporation "), An interlocutor in the aircraft industry told Vedomosti and was confirmed by a man close to the Defense Ministry. According to him, the contract value will be about 70 billion rubles. On Tuesday, in an interview with Vedomosti, UAC President Yury Slyusar said that the contract for fighter of this type planned for signing in 2018 "will ensure the loading of the IAZ in the coming years at the level of 12-14 cars per year". In addition, according to Slyusar, the Su-30 is good.
In total, since 2012, the Ministry of Defense has contracted 116 Su-30SM fighters based on the Su-30MKI fighter developed for India. 88 vehicles were ordered for VKS and 28 for naval aviation of the Navy, and their deliveries under existing contracts would be completed in 2018. In addition to India, such vehicles were also exported to Malaysia, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and in the future, these aircraft can be delivered to Myanmar and Belarus.

Another contract for 36 Su-30 for 3 years, for continue in a similar delivery rate than this year
The total number will reach 152 Su-30SM in 2021

However is not specicied how many are for VKS or the Navy
While the VKS is near to complete the third regiment of Su-30SM and only Will need small ammount for year, Navy still need several squadrons for replace Su-24´s
Other posibilite could be a fourt regiment for VKS and the navy will wait after 2020 for get higher numbers
Antway the Su-30SM purchases will continue for more years

seems your post is jumping here there and everywhere.

Anyway, what is your prediction now regarding the airforce fleet/numbers? This recent order is rather very small compared to last one.

miketheterrible wrote:seems your post is jumping here there and everywhere.

Anyway, what is your prediction now regarding the airforce fleet/numbers?  This recent order is rather very small compared to last one.

Well this is not one prder, is only the summer news of one order to sign before the year end
Previous news sugested a larger contract, including 50 only for the Navy

If the contract is only for 36 in tree years, we need to see how many are for the VKS and for the Navy
With the existing regiments, no nore Su-30SM are needed for the VKS except two Su-30SM for each Su-35 squadron delivered.
Also is necesary to complete the Millerovo regiment (4) and one for rellace the plane lost in Syria, and pehaps one couple more for Lípetsk that only have 4.
Next year cuold be 4 for Navy (completing squadron of Chernyakhovsk) and 10 for VKS, and the next years one squadron for Navy (12) and only 2 for VKS

Other posibility os open a new regiment of Su-30 for VKS (I cannot imegina where, perhaps 14º Army-Central District , or other place in the West MD or South MD). but there are no news about that for the moment

Anyway is very probably will be needed other contracts for replace all Navy Su-30SM´s , and the production could end 2023 or 2024

By 2025, how do you see complete composition of Russias airforce in terms of fighters/interceptors/non strategic bombers?

miketheterrible wrote:By 2025, how do you see complete composition of Russias airforce in terms of fighters/interceptors/non strategic bombers?

Good question, I am also interested on that

Found the following related to GPV 2027, maybe the knowledgeable guys here can comment on it:

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/

LMFS wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:By 2025, how do you see complete composition of Russias airforce in terms of fighters/interceptors/non strategic bombers?

Good question, I am also interested on that

Found the following related to GPV 2027, maybe the knowledgeable guys here can comment on it:

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/
Much of this procurement reflects the need to replace aging Soviet aircraft with new airframes with modern electronics and weapon systems. Nevertheless, many Soviet-era airframes remain in service. These include approximately 100 Su-27 and Su-27SM and approximately 150-170 MiG-29S fighter aircraft, approximately 150 MiG-31 interceptors, and over 200 each of the Su-24 bomber and Su-25 strike aircraft.

This is not realistic because forgets the new aircraft replaces older ones
Putin himself said clearly about the Air Force: "first replace, then slight increase"

My point of view is to continue receiving about one squadron per year of each Su-35 , Su-30 and Su-34 , replacing all soviet made Su-27/24 and the most of MiG-29´s
MiG-31BM near to end the modernization, perhaps also two or tree squadrons more of MiG-31K
In the next years, also complete the modernization all fleet of Su-25´s


Then by 2025 Will have 12 squadrons of Su-35 and 2 of Su-27SM3,
The Su-27SM will be removed between 2021 and 2025, since they were modernized between 2004 and 2009 and were manufactured between 1988 and 1990
After that ,Su-27SM3 will be replaced in next years by more Su-35, at the end, modernized Su-27SM3 are of 1991-92 and the dozen Su-27SM3 "Chinese stock" would be relocated or discarded as the "Algerian" Su-29SMT´s

So in 2025 will have about 165 Su-25 and 24 Su-27SM3, and after 2027 about 190 Su-35 in total.

The numbers of Su-30SM will reach 200 , near 120 in VKS and at least 80 in the Navy.
Also 20 Su-20M2 , probably will end in training units

And the arround remaining 70 soviet made MiG-29s (half of them UB´s) , could be replaced by MiG-35 in the better case.
Still is not clear the destination of the MiG-29SMT from Kursk

Also 130 MiG-31BM and 24-36 MiG-31K

By 2025 all fleet of Su-24 will have been retired, and will have about 200 Su-34
And also about 180-200 Su-25´s

Hole wrote:The plant producing the Su-30SM will switch to civil production (MS-21), but the plant producing the Su-30M2 (KnAAPO) is also producing the Su-35, so something like an Su-35UB (an Su-30 with the electronics of the Su-35) could be built after the Su-30SM production is finished.

KnAAPO ends the production of Su-30M2/MK2 at the end of 2015 and the last two Su-30M2 was delivered in february 2016
KnAAPO will produce only Su-35 and small ammount of Su-57, since also produce civil aircrafts
"Su-35UB" is not neceaary since Su-30Sm is also a flanker and is good enoung as two seater for any Flanker
IAPO will produce as many Su-30SM as necesary, however in Russia the aircrafts designed by design bureaus can be manofactured in any factory that is necessary

Thanks!

franco wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:

Hole wrote:The plant producing the Su-30SM will switch to civil production (MS-21), but the plant producing the Su-30M2 (KnAAPO) is also producing the Su-35, so something like an Su-35UB (an Su-30 with the electronics of the Su-35) could be built after the Su-30SM production is finished.

KnAAPO ends the production of Su-30M2/MK2 at the end of 2015 and the last two Su-30M2 was delivered in february 2016
KnAAPO will produce only Su-35 and small ammount of Su-57, since also produce civil aircrafts
"Su-35UB" is not neceaary since Su-30Sm is also a flanker and is good enoung as two seater for any Flanker
IAPO will produce as many Su-30SM as necesary, however in Russia the aircrafts designed by design bureaus can be manofactured in any factory that is necessary

Read an article in the past week in which the IAPO Director said;
1. would be signing a new contract for additional Su-30SM to the Russian Air Force shortly
2. there was also considerable foreign interest in the aircraft and they would continue producing at 12+ per year

Well,it is evident the Su-30SM current contract will end soon , so other contract is needed before the year end
The cuestión is if 36 are only for the VKS or the total VKS+Navy
36 seems too much only for the Air Force if there are not a new regiment or pherhaps a squadron in Erebuni could also get Su-30SM
And 36 is very few for the Navy that probably dont will receive complete squadrons until 2020 or 2021

I think they will sign several contracts of arround 36 each 3 years for keep the delivery rate
116+36= 152
In 2021 other 36 and in 2023 or 2024 for other 36 can reach a number of about 224 (about 120 VKS and 104 Navy in 4 regiments+4 in Kaliningrad+4 Yeisk training center)
The production will depend of foreing sales as IAPO need to keep total production arround 20-25 units per year, about the half for foreign countries as Kazhakstan Belarus, Myanmar, etc...

AMCXXL wrote:

LMFS wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:By 2025, how do you see complete composition of Russias airforce in terms of fighters/interceptors/non strategic bombers?

Good question, I am also interested on that

Found the following related to GPV 2027, maybe the knowledgeable guys here can comment on it:

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/
Much of this procurement reflects the need to replace aging Soviet aircraft with new airframes with modern electronics and weapon systems. Nevertheless, many Soviet-era airframes remain in service. These include approximately 100 Su-27 and Su-27SM and approximately 150-170 MiG-29S fighter aircraft, approximately 150 MiG-31 interceptors, and over 200 each of the Su-24 bomber and Su-25 strike aircraft.

This is not realistic because forgets the new aircraft replaces older ones
Putin himself said clearly about the Air Force: "first replace, then slight increase"

My point of view is to continue receiving about one squadron per year of each Su-35 , Su-30 and Su-34 , replacing all soviet made Su-27/24 and the most of MiG-29´s
MiG-31BM near to end the modernization, perhaps also two or tree squadrons more of MiG-31K
In the next years, also complete the modernization all fleet of Su-25´s


Then by 2025 Will have 12 squadrons of Su-35 and 2 of Su-27SM3,
The Su-27SM will be removed between 2021 and 2025, since they were modernized between 2004 and 2009 and were manufactured between 1988 and 1990
After that ,Su-27SM3 will be replaced in next years by more Su-35, at the end, modernized Su-27SM3 are of 1991-92 and the dozen Su-27SM3 "Chinese stock" would be relocated or discarded as the "Algerian" Su-29SMT´s

So in 2025 will have about 165 Su-25 and 24 Su-27SM3, and after 2027 about 190 Su-35 in total.

The numbers of Su-30SM will reach 200 , near 120 in VKS and at least 80 in the Navy.
Also 20 Su-20M2 , probably will end in training units

And the arround remaining 70 soviet made MiG-29s (half of them UB´s) , could be replaced by MiG-35 in the better case.
Still is not clear the destination of the MiG-29SMT from Kursk

Also 130 MiG-31BM and 24-36 MiG-31K

By 2025 all fleet of Su-24 will have been retired, and will have about 200 Su-34
And also about 180-200 Su-25´s

Strange since Russia stated that they need 700 fighters, that isn't including Su-34's because those aren't necessarily fighters. What you listed is less than 500 fighters.

Seems they will have a major stunted airforce till then?

miketheterrible wrote:

Strange since Russia stated that they need 700 fighters, that isn't including Su-34's because those aren't necessarily fighters.  What you listed is less than 500 fighters.

Seems they will have a major stunted airforce till then?

700 are speculations in internet, but will be more because the account must include VKS and Navy, since some figthers have been already transfered or will be transfered from VKS to Navy

190 Su-35/27SM3 (14 combat squadrons)
20 Su-33 (probably replaced for other Su-35 regment before 2030, at the end with MiG 29K is enough for the Kuznestov, waiting for new CV´s and new carrier based aircrafts like MiG-35K ???)
220 Su-30SM (at least 14 combat squadrons)
20 Su-30M2
155-165 MiG-31BM/K (10 sq. BM and 2-3 K)
23 MiG-29K (probably could buy several more for complete at least 24 single seats)
50 MiG 29SMT (if keep the "Algerian" SMT´s)
other 70-75 MiG-35 if are replaced all remaining soviet 29´s
and about 20-25 Su-57 in 2025

This is a total of 770-790
About 580 in the VKS and about 200 in the Navy.
Today there are about 640 (540 in the VKS and about 100 in the Navy), and this is much better than 4 or 5 years ago

VKS will have more than 600 or near 650 when raise new regiments of Su-57 (as much 3, one in each army 11,6,4)

The largest increase is in the Navy since that in 2013 only have less than 40 fighters  in their ranks (22 Su-33 of 279 KIAP , 12 MiG-31 of Yelizovo and as much 4 or 5 in Su-27 operative in Kaliningrad)

At the end Navy will have its own Army of VVS i PVO in each large fleet, the 45º AA in North and this year was announced other Air Army for the Pacific
Also Baltic is retaking the old regiments and Crimea could form a similar Joint Command

So its combining Navy with AF that gives them large amount.

And that is not including Su-34 and Su-24, which both have Short/Med Range AA capabilities.

Still, for a nation like Russia with its massive territory/airspace, that is a small airforce, even if you account AD systems.

I thought the plans where to reactivate some more air bases and create more squadrons. If you look the situation today in the Central and East districts is like you have 30 planes for a territory of 1000 km diameter, with luck. More MiG-31s are needed IMHO, even considering AD and all the relocation possibilities. Central Asia, Artic and Far East are far from being safe in case of conflict.

They are. They reactivated an airbase in Kuril Islands, that now just got Japan all riled up.

Thanks miketheterrible and franco for the info

Those forward deployment bases, were they fully fledged ones in Soviet times?