franco wrote: miketheterrible wrote:He is the asshole who gets wet Everytime some US government IP is shown on his site.
He is a shitty "think tank". Why people still help him financially by posting his trash site is beyond me.
You are confusing this guy with Russian Defense Policy blogger. This guy is an American academic of Russian descent. He is considered one of the top Russian analyst in the West. My take is that he is fair (ie not a hater but definitely pro west) as possible considering who pays him, plus it is always informative to see how the other side sees things.
AGAIN with that 2027 mismatch!
It seem that they just didn't get that such date has to be intended as the terminal limit of a ten year long (and delayed by two years due the Ukraine crisis) acquisition program, so they think that the Su-57 with Objekt 30 will not be delivered before of that date!
When instead the first of the "2027" planes to be delivered has made it's first flight just this week under the name "Petr Deinekin".
And the Acquisition Programmes regard much more the quantity and the types of planes that would result at the end of the process than what would be the exact model, the price of it and when exactly ( i.e.what year) it would be acquired.
This is made precisely with the purpose of get the more possible flexibility.
Here some real life examples of how the System work, both for the worst than for the best:
Example 1:
The development of Su-35 is getting late while some of our legacy plane are approaching the end of their scheduled life:
No panic, let's immediately made a contract for 16 newly built Su-27SM3 to replace them in the meantime that thing get fixed.
Example 2:
Yak-130 not just fulfill our needs for advanced training and has also proved able to decisively cut the needed hours for OCU transition (as M-346 also does in AMI):
Great, let's divert 12 of the 20 Su-30Mk2 we build specifically for such role to equip an operative squadron and let's upgrade just 6-8 Su-27P to SM3 standard so we will have a full operative squadron at a still modern standard to add at them and form a full regiment ASAP.
The remaining 30-36 Su-27P would instead stay in service as they are, given that Su-57 program, thank God, is on schedule, so no need to spend money on planes that would soon be replaced.
So, it's impossible to know now how many of each types of planes would be acquired in such a long period.
What we know it that in the period they want to phase out:
The earlier Su-27: so Su-35 or/and Su-57-30 there.
The MiG-29S: Only thing almost certain there is 24 Mig-35 for the ones operating in Armenia, for the ones actually in reserve it will be between Su-30SM2 and others Mig-35.
The remaining Su-24, both for Navy than for Recon: Su-34M2.
New primary and basic trainers: Yak-152 or a mix of it and SR-10, in the second case 0% chance for new Yak-130 but very few also in the first case.
Modernization instead for Su-25 and a second batch of MiG-31, no upgrade for Su-27SM (as they would be retired in the 2021-2030 one).
Both Tu-160 and Tu-160m2 would also be included in such programme, Pak-Da would instead surely fall in the 2021-2030 acquisition programme while the "Mig-41"could even be finalized for the (beginning of) 2028-2037 one.
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