The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

sepheronx wrote:Now that I think about it, what would be US and Ukraine success to splitting apart Russia? Even though it seems impossible due to cultural connections between Russians from west and Russians from east (since they are same people), there seems to be a never ending supply of Russians willing to cater to the west.  As well, Russian government seems to be sitting on its collective arses regarding about dealing with US activity in Russia. I know they are attempting through disbanding NGO's or bringing them out to light, but they barely scratched the surface with that. Add in, they have yet to force out the US ambassador and its various staff when they are caught having meetings with 5th columnists prior to elections.

If they dont act, then it could end up as a reality. But it wont be how US and kiev expect it.  I imagine it eould end up more federalized with more power to Siberia and alike, while retaining their Russianess.

But, if the federal goverment does their jobs properly, then they can stamp this all out early and less dirty.

Polling tells otherwise, the approval rating of the US in Russia has fallen dramatically because of the sanctions, most Russians see the US as a threat, and Putin's approval rating is still extremely high. The US don't stand a chance at this point in time.

Erk wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Now that I think about it, what would be US and Ukraine success to splitting apart Russia? Even though it seems impossible due to cultural connections between Russians from west and Russians from east (since they are same people), there seems to be a never ending supply of Russians willing to cater to the west.  As well, Russian government seems to be sitting on its collective arses regarding about dealing with US activity in Russia. I know they are attempting through disbanding NGO's or bringing them out to light, but they barely scratched the surface with that. Add in, they have yet to force out the US ambassador and its various staff when they are caught having meetings with 5th columnists prior to elections.

If they dont act, then it could end up as a reality. But it wont be how US and kiev expect it.  I imagine it eould end up more federalized with more power to Siberia and alike, while retaining their Russianess.

But, if the federal goverment does their jobs properly, then they can stamp this all out early and less dirty.

Polling tells otherwise, the approval rating of the US in Russia has fallen dramatically because of the sanctions, most Russians see the US as a threat, and Putin's approval rating is still extremely high. The US don't stand a chance at this point in time.

Oh of course. US had a relatively decent view of approval from Russians for sometime, but I think after this whole ordeal, they won't forgive them. There will be those who will flee to US as they are useful idiots and will politicize it all they can just so they can get assistance in US, but the majority will dislike them for a very long time. Not easy to fool the Russians since internet is there, and simply put - the US hypocrisy is beyond ridiculous and so blatant.

Looks like the IMF, from the comments of Lagarde at the weekend, are planning to allow the Ukrainians to stiff the Russians on the $3B loan. Apparently Moscow OK'd the current loan plan on the basis that they would get this dosh plus Gazprom money from it. If this happens the shit should really hit the fan given the rigid stance from Moscow.

This follows on from John Helmer's previous article about the IMF money barely touching the ground on its way out of Ukraine (see a couple of pages ago).

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14037

zg18 wrote:Ukrainian military started to deploy WW2 ZiS-3 gun mod. 1942

This is a wonderment taking in to consideration the voentorg flowing copiously east from certain areas in EU and environs. As an aside, an antique T34-76 will kill you just as dead as the newest Armata.

Just watched a propaganda video of Azov regiment tank (several weird ones, probably export T-64) and APC (MTLB stock and with mounted autocannon) training. Those bastards somehow always avoided actual combat (as opposed to terrorising civilian population and their prisoners) and managed to preserve themselves, in stark contrast to Aidar, Dnipro, Donbass, RS and other similar formations. If there is one thing I am particularly sad about this ceasefire, it is the fact that Azov scum hasn't paid the price yet and might simply walk away once the conflict is over.

Excellent analysis as usual by Russia Insider :

''Ukraine Prepares to Default on Its Russian Loan''

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/ukraine-prepares-default-its-russian-loan/ri9561

Pity the Pork...

PapaDragon wrote:
Excellent analysis as usual by Russia Insider :

''Ukraine Prepares to Default on Its Russian Loan''

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/ukraine-prepares-default-its-russian-loan/ri9561

Pity the Pork...

Good link but the financial fun has barely started. On the current IMF release money plan it would take everything more that they expect to get this year to pay Moscow. With nothing for the oligarchs.

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the IMF, from the comments of Lagarde at the weekend, are planning to allow the Ukrainians to stiff the Russians on the $3B loan. Apparently Moscow OK'd the current loan plan on the basis that they would get this dosh plus Gazprom money from it. If this happens the shit should really hit the fan given the rigid stance from Moscow.

This follows on from John Helmer's previous article about the IMF money barely touching the ground on its way out of Ukraine (see a couple of pages ago).

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14037

Russia should instantly default on $3 billion of NATO debt it holds. Any ratings lowering by Moody's et al. won't matter for anything since the
current ratings are a total joke and Russia is cut off from the precious NATO banking system anyway.

By no means should Russia let this slide without imposing costs on NATO. NATO only understands force and money.

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the IMF, from the comments of Lagarde at the weekend, are planning to allow the Ukrainians to stiff the Russians on the $3B loan. Apparently Moscow OK'd the current loan plan on the basis that they would get this dosh plus Gazprom money from it. If this happens the shit should really hit the fan given the rigid stance from Moscow.

This follows on from John Helmer's previous article about the IMF money barely touching the ground on its way out of Ukraine (see a couple of pages ago).

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14037

Russia should instantly default on $3 billion of NATO debt it holds.   Any ratings lowering by Moody's et al. won't matter for anything since the
current ratings are a total joke and Russia is cut off from the precious NATO banking system anyway.

By no means should Russia let this slide without imposing costs on NATO.   NATO only understands force and money.

Or they could simply say "No gas to Europe or Ukraine till the debt is paid, since they helped start this conflict in Ukraine to begin with. Any complaints, please direct attention to Victoria Nuland and Yatsenyuk/Poroshenko"

sepheronx wrote:

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the IMF, from the comments of Lagarde at the weekend, are planning to allow the Ukrainians to stiff the Russians on the $3B loan. Apparently Moscow OK'd the current loan plan on the basis that they would get this dosh plus Gazprom money from it. If this happens the shit should really hit the fan given the rigid stance from Moscow.

This follows on from John Helmer's previous article about the IMF money barely touching the ground on its way out of Ukraine (see a couple of pages ago).

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14037

Russia should instantly default on $3 billion of NATO debt it holds.   Any ratings lowering by Moody's et al. won't matter for anything since the
current ratings are a total joke and Russia is cut off from the precious NATO banking system anyway.

By no means should Russia let this slide without imposing costs on NATO.   NATO only understands force and money.

Or they could simply say "No gas to Europe or Ukraine till the debt is paid, since they helped start this conflict in Ukraine to begin with.  Any complaints, please direct attention to Victoria Nuland and Yatsenyuk/Poroshenko"

The NATO lemmings have been conditioned by years of propaganda to expect Russia to use the "energy weapon". Russia should
strike back with a surprise move. As for gas, it should systematically over a period of 10 or 20 years disengage from the EU.
Let the EU eat LNG cake.

Nah, I think letting them suffer for their actions is a far better way of proving a point. Already the ban on agriculture products from EU Is causing a major stir. And that is just agriculture products (notice how various companies are now squirming to open up plants for production in Russia? Probably has to do with them trying to place a foot on the ground in hopes to secure their future operations in Russia).

Or, increase the costs of gas/oil to EU to make up the losses from Ukraine. Still give them what they need, but state "Due to loss from investments as well as Ukraine not properly paying for the gas in the past, this is the new prices per 1000m^2"

[quote="JohninMK"][quote="victor1985"][quote="JohninMK"][quote="victor1985"]what is happen with novorussia? who knows? maibe they just are tired up and dont feel like they wanna fight ? maibe just ucrainians make them be like that? maibe they just saw they dont have a chance in front of all the huge powers in the world? [/quote]
They are under strategic guidance as to what their objectives are and it doesn't come from Kiev. As with all defensive situations they are just waiting for something to happen and getting on with life as best they can until their future is decided. You can be certain that, regardless of what is going on politically, down in the emplacements they are ready to give better than they get.[/quote]
where from then if is not from kiev? washintong? moscow ? berlin ? paris bruselles bucharest where from where from? [/quote]
Given that this is a Russian named site and you have been here for a while I am really not sure if your question is a wind up or not. [/quote]
well i didnt watched all the news. and also another thing. right now a lot of people lie so i just dont know who to believe to. some say usa rule in novorusia. others say russia

Concerning Mr Tie Eater

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e29_1441632350

Kolomoisky compared Saakashvili with a snapping dog and a snotty addict

http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/04-09-2015/131834-ukraine-0/

Yatsenyuk calls Saakashvili a weakling

Tie Eater's response:

http://7city.org/main/29609-saakashvili-has-accused-the-government-of-inefficiency-yatsenyuk.html


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Not very relevant but English Wikipedia censored out the event that Sakass ate his ties, wiki claimed that it is trivia and put the ban on whatever who tried to post it.

A cloud on the horizon.

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/09/hugs-all-around-for-incoming-virus.html

Deep in this well written article about the current invasion of EU is a little something about EU asking Russia to take some of the endless hordes. This is not the first time I've heard of this and my reaction is a simple and very adamant NO. My friends in Germany are in a semi panic over the influx and are dreading an even heavier tax burden than the one they are groaning under today, let alone integrating a huge mass of people in to German culture which the vast majority of these economic wanderers have no intention of ever joining.

What does this not so sudden but hugely expanding invasion have to do with the current situation up north and Russia? Simple. With now literally millions of new immigrants breaking the doors to EU down, flooding the most prosperous countries and demanding assistance and benefits as they are crossing what used to be strong borders, the many billions of euros now spent on the war will be directed to aiding these immigrants. Government attentions now focused on the war and against RF will now be more and more focused on their new crisis and Ukraine et al will fade in to the background for the time being. Couple this with the growing annoyance in regards to the US imposed EU sanctions against Russia which, shocking to EU, were promptly shoved right back up EU's collective nostrils, I think there's going to be huge turmoil roiling EU for quite some time.

While I am adamantly opposed to RF taking a single one of these vermin infecting EU, I look at the situation in EU with admiration. Whoever did this to them is truly a master of cunning and there are already rumblings that VVP did it. If he did do it, I bow in deep respect of him for shoving a telephone pole up the dirtyhole of the entire EU. Sideways. Well done!

In other news:

Russia Has a Better Claim to Crimea Than Britain to Northern Ireland - Former Irish diplomat

Gazprom to Sue Ukraine for $24 (!) Billion

The Much Celebrated Canadian Aid to Ukraine Military Was Worth a Pitiful $500,000

Poroshenko Blames Kiev Grenade Deaths on...Wait for It...Russia!

IMF Officials Implicated In Theft, Concealment Of Ukraine Loan Corruption, U.S. Justice Department Investigating

DNR has stopped supplying coal to Ukraine until they resume allowing vehicle and locomotive spares into DNR. As South Africa and Australia cannot supply the amount and type needed, particulary anthracite, then this will cause a major problem for Kiev. Many will ask why the coal was not stopped before winter 2014, or at least when Kiev declared a blockade of Donbass, but we all know that $ is king  http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2243369

On the other matter, Purgin is said to be at home, but many things are "said" to be so. Habeus corpus.....

Some ukrops villagers had thought they had seen a "sacred" face in a window on the side of a house, and people have come to pray at this "miracle". The secret of the face is now revealed, and it is indeed a miracle... https://vk.com/donbass.media?z=photo-90561387_379020313%2Falbum-90561387_00%2Frev

victor1985 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

victor1985 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

victor1985 wrote:what is happen with novorussia? who knows? maibe they just are tired up and dont feel like they wanna fight ? maibe just ucrainians make them be like that? maibe they just saw they dont have a chance in front of all the huge powers in the world?

They are under strategic guidance as to what their objectives are and it doesn't come from Kiev. As with all defensive situations they are just waiting for something to happen and getting on with life as best they can until their future is decided. You can be certain that, regardless of what is going on politically, down in the emplacements they are ready to give better than they get.

where from then if is not from kiev? washintong? moscow ? berlin ? paris bruselles bucharest where from where from?

Given that this is a Russian named site and you have been here for a while I am really not sure if your question is a wind up or not.

well i didnt watched all the news. and also another thing. right now a lot of people lie so i just dont know who to believe to. some say usa rule in novorusia. others say russia

Fair enough, most people believe that the ultimate power in Donbas is in Moscow. Which is logical when Russia is providing much of what keeps them going plus ultimately their final line of defence. Day to day the decisions are made locally but anything that involves an impact on anyone or anything outside the area they control will need clearance from above.

Ironically this is almost exactly the kind of relationship that Minsk 2 agreed, with Moscow replaced by Kiev. It is just so sad that those in Kiev did not have the vision to see it or the guts to stand up for what was best for Ukraine rather than their own pockets/exercise of power.

auslander wrote:A cloud on the horizon.

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/09/hugs-all-around-for-incoming-virus.html

Deep in this well written article about the current invasion of EU is a little something about EU asking Russia to take some of the endless hordes. This is not the first time I've heard of this and my reaction is a simple and very adamant NO. My friends in Germany are in a semi panic over the influx and are dreading an even heavier tax burden than the one they are groaning under today, let alone integrating a huge mass of people in to German culture which the vast majority of these economic wanderers have no intention of ever joining.

What does this not so sudden but hugely expanding invasion have to do with the current situation up north and Russia? Simple. With now literally millions of new immigrants breaking the doors to EU down, flooding the most prosperous countries and demanding assistance and benefits as they are crossing what used to be strong borders, the many billions of euros now spent on the war will be directed to aiding these immigrants. Government attentions now focused on the war and against RF will now be more and more focused on their new crisis and Ukraine et al will fade in to the background for the time being. Couple this with the growing annoyance in regards to the US imposed EU sanctions against Russia which, shocking to EU, were promptly shoved right back up EU's collective nostrils, I think there's going to be huge turmoil roiling EU for quite some time.

While I am adamantly opposed to RF taking a single one of these vermin infecting EU, I look at the situation in EU with admiration. Whoever did this to them is truly a master of cunning and there are already rumblings that VVP did it. If he did do it, I bow in deep respect of him for shoving a telephone pole up the dirtyhole of the entire EU. Sideways. Well done!

I agree with you, Moscow must be looking on in complete amazement at what the EU countries are allowing to be done to themselves but I don't think VVP had anything to do with it. Up to a few weeks ago the flow of people (I won't say refugees as most are economic migrants) was controllable and then 2/3 weeks ago the floodgates were opened in Turkey. Who did that and why are very interesting questions.

My view is that the US saw the increased flow of shipbourne supplies in August from Russia to Syria, realised the effect it could have in Syria, and decided to create increased public concern so NATO could start bombing IS (sorry we missed them and hit the SAA) in Syria that they were stopped from doing in 2013. As a beneficial side effect to some in the US, it reduces the power of the EU in the world (and is almost certainly the final nail in coffin of the UK staying in the EU) whilst driving up its social costs.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the IMF, from the comments of Lagarde at the weekend, are planning to allow the Ukrainians to stiff the Russians on the $3B loan. Apparently Moscow OK'd the current loan plan on the basis that they would get this dosh plus Gazprom money from it. If this happens the shit should really hit the fan given the rigid stance from Moscow.

This follows on from John Helmer's previous article about the IMF money barely touching the ground on its way out of Ukraine (see a couple of pages ago).

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14037

Russia should instantly default on $3 billion of NATO debt it holds.   Any ratings lowering by Moody's et al. won't matter for anything since the
current ratings are a total joke and Russia is cut off from the precious NATO banking system anyway.

By no means should Russia let this slide without imposing costs on NATO.   NATO only understands force and money.

Or they could simply say "No gas to Europe or Ukraine till the debt is paid, since they helped start this conflict in Ukraine to begin with.  Any complaints, please direct attention to Victoria Nuland and Yatsenyuk/Poroshenko"

The NATO lemmings have been conditioned by years of propaganda to expect Russia to use the "energy weapon".  Russia should
strike back with a surprise move.   As for gas, it should systematically over a period of 10 or 20 years disengage from the EU.  
Let the EU eat LNG cake.

It isn't going to happen. Russia honours its energy contracts and pays its debts. A bit old fashioned really.

What it may well do is stick to the letter of those contracts, for example the 'end user' clause that seems to be in them that would prevent reverse flow back to Ukraine. Also the Gazprom vs Ukraine claim is slowly trundling through the courts in Stockholm.

The $3B loan is turning into a real game of chicken, regardless of whether the IMF changes its rules (to allow continuing payment of loans to countries in default) if Ukraine does not pay in December then they are in sovereign default which brings all kinds of other loans, from the EU etc, to a halt as their credit rating goes to nothing. Then there will be the court case in London against which they will almost certainly have no defence, the 'ebil Putin did it' does not play well in our High Court.

Khepesh wrote:DNR has stopped supplying coal to Ukraine until they resume allowing vehicle and locomotive spares into DNR. As South Africa and Australia cannot supply the amount and type needed, particulary anthracite, then this will cause a major problem for Kiev. Many will ask why the coal was not stopped before winter 2014, or at least when Kiev declared a blockade of Donbass, but we all know that $ is king  http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2243369

On the other matter, Purgin is said to be at home, but many things are "said" to be so. Habeus corpus.....

Nice one, the hidden hand of Moscow. From past reports this seemed to be running at 3-400,000 tons a month. A case of get the addict hooked on the supply, let them think it will continue, then stop it. Will Kiev try and take it by force?

Interim speaker of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic People’s Council Denis Pushilin said that an agreement on the withdrawal of weapons under 100-mm calibre by the Kiev-led forces and the Donbass militias is likely to be signed during a Contact Group meeting later Tuesday.

DONETSK (Sputnik) – An agreement on the withdrawal of weapons under 100-mm calibre by the Kiev-led forces and the Donbass militias is likely to be signed during a Contact Group meeting later Tuesday, interim speaker of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic People’s Council Denis Pushilin said.

"There is big hope that the [issue] with the document on withdrawal of weapons under 100-mm calibre will be put to an end at a meeting of the security subgroup, it is likely that the document will be initialled," Pushilin said, as quoted by the Donetsk News Agency.

According to Pushilin, signing of the agreement will be an important step to resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150908/1026714165.html#ixzz3l8mPwvHp

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:A cloud on the horizon.

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/09/hugs-all-around-for-incoming-virus.html

Deep in this well written article about the current invasion of EU is a little something about EU asking Russia to take some of the endless hordes. This is not the first time I've heard of this and my reaction is a simple and very adamant NO. My friends in Germany are in a semi panic over the influx and are dreading an even heavier tax burden than the one they are groaning under today, let alone integrating a huge mass of people in to German culture which the vast majority of these economic wanderers have no intention of ever joining.

What does this not so sudden but hugely expanding invasion have to do with the current situation up north and Russia? Simple. With now literally millions of new immigrants breaking the doors to EU down, flooding the most prosperous countries and demanding assistance and benefits as they are crossing what used to be strong borders, the many billions of euros now spent on the war will be directed to aiding these immigrants. Government attentions now focused on the war and against RF will now be more and more focused on their new crisis and Ukraine et al will fade in to the background for the time being. Couple this with the growing annoyance in regards to the US imposed EU sanctions against Russia which, shocking to EU, were promptly shoved right back up EU's collective nostrils, I think there's going to be huge turmoil roiling EU for quite some time.

While I am adamantly opposed to RF taking a single one of these vermin infecting EU, I look at the situation in EU with admiration. Whoever did this to them is truly a master of cunning and there are already rumblings that VVP did it. If he did do it, I bow in deep respect of him for shoving a telephone pole up the dirtyhole of the entire EU. Sideways. Well done!

I agree with you, Moscow must be looking on in complete amazement at what the EU countries are allowing to be done to themselves but I don't think VVP had anything to do with it. Up to a few weeks ago the flow of people (I won't say refugees as most are economic migrants) was controllable and then 2/3 weeks ago the floodgates were opened in Turkey. Who did that and why are very interesting questions.

My view is that the US saw the increased flow of shipbourne supplies in August from Russia to Syria, realised the effect it could have in Syria, and decided to create increased public concern so NATO could start bombing IS (sorry we missed them and hit the SAA) in Syria that they were stopped from doing in 2013. As a beneficial side effect to some in the US, it reduces the power of the EU in the world (and is almost certainly the final nail in coffin of the UK staying in the EU) whilst driving up its social costs.

I don't think VVP had anything to do with it either but it's a nice thought. Still, standing here and watching what is going on and realizing that for every wetback going to EU there will be minimum another 5 family members coming to them in the next year or so if not sooner, one just shakes one's head in wonderment. EU is patently insane. I am on skype at this moment with Germany and you can probably hear their screams all the way to UK.

Purgin, his wife and Alexandrov junior were in fact in the basement since Friday, despite claims from MGB that they knew nothing about them. They were released less than an hour ago. On the phone to RIA Novosti, Purgin said that he had been home only twenty minutes and would make a statement tomorrow as today he needs to get his head together. Asked if he thought his life was not in danger he replied "In theory, yes", which indicates he is not fully certain of his fate. http://ria.ru/world/20150908/1237988061.html

Khepesh wrote:Purgin, his wife and Alexandrov junior were in fact in the basement since Friday, despite claims from MGB that they knew nothing about them. They were released less than an hour ago. On the phone to RIA Novosti, Purgin said that he had been home only twenty minutes and would make a statement tomorrow as today he needs to get his head together. Asked if he thought his life was not in danger he replied "In theory, yes", which indicates he is not fully certain of his fate.  http://ria.ru/world/20150908/1237988061.html

Basically held in the basement, told him which political goals he must pursue and which he shouldn't. You were saying he was one of the guys who wanted to see Donbass become part of Russia. I guess Moscow had a deep and convincing discussion with him on that matter.