Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+49
Boreas
KomissarBojanchev
Karl Haushofer
par far
higurashihougi
Flagship Victory
eehnie
zg18
Khepesh
JohninMK
Dforce
TheArmenian
Mike E
kvs
victor1985
Ruthenius
Austin
Ispan
Glyph
PapaDragon
Godric
Ghoster
medo
Regular
Big_Gazza
Project Canada
BKP
magnumcromagnon
Werewolf
SturmGuard
sepheronx
The Mule
gregoire
2SPOOKY4U
OminousSpudd
whir
flamming_python
Walther von Oldenburg
Vann7
ExBeobachter1987
kap-the-head
KoTeMoRe
Rodinazombie
auslander
sektor
Cowboy's daughter
Neutrality
franco
Chersonesus
53 posters

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    avatar
    Guest
    Guest


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Guest Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:50 am

    Dforce wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote: As a result, people are going to attack you personally whether it is for a reason or not. You and the discussion about Ukraine would be much better off if you didn't post here because someone will find it provocative. I don't mean this as anything personal from me, just thought I ought let you know.

    No problems. As long as the moderators are taking care of all that off topic I see no reason why those of us that DO wamt to discuss Ukraine should not be able to do that.

    And, on that note, when do you lot expect this Ukrainian offensive to start? I do not understand how you reason when you think that Ukraine will go on the offensive; that is the last thing those footing the bill for Kiev wants, and in the end of the day it is the other side that needs to do something if they want Donetsk out of arty range.
    I don't know when a Ukrainian offensive will start but I expect soon as do many others. Everything points to a Ukrainian offensive. There has been a huge amount of equipment being brought in by the VSU. Simpler IFVs like BMP-2s to possibly advanced T-80 tanks which have not seen combat in Ukraine yet. Even intel suggests that there is a few OTR-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missiles that are now in Artemovsk. Porkins has been calling his War Cabinet in a lot lately. Attacks that should be prohibited by Minsk II have gone up in number. Towns like Telmenovo with a comfortable buffer from the front have been hit by a few 122mm Grad rockets originating from the SW direction. Rebels may need to push their stuff closer too soon.

    Reason for the impending attack usually are linked to the current socio-economic problems Ukraine is facing. The pro-West government now in power has lost a lot of influence and support. Part of that is because the ATO zone is relatively quiet until now. Ukraine has a lot of armed gangs that are not necessarily pro-Ukraine as they are anti-Russian and the government can't control them. The down time isn't doing them much good obviously. Look what happened in Mukachevo. So reheating the ATO zone may help Porkins and his crew consolidate their power as everyone who can challenge them is busy.

    The other reason why Ukraine's attack is impending is because of their broken economy. Ukraine has lost a good amount of its economy because switching to the EU severely hurt them. Now they are very close to defaulting. To survive, they rely on IMF tranches and other foreign aid. That aid came when the fighting was most intense. Now people are not very interested in Ukraine because there is nothing going on. To bring in more foreign money, Porky might think it is a good idea to start fighting again.

    Of course Novorossiya wants to push VSU forces out of striking range but they are not strong enough. Lesson learned from Debaltsevo when the NAF had to call up some vacationers to finish the job for them because the NAF was in bad shape. I'm sure you have heard the NAF is conducting intensive training for a few months now though. It takes sometime to churn out a quality fighter. The NAF is looking to shove the VSU back in the long term as they certainly are not ready now.
    avatar
    Rodinazombie


    Posts : 575
    Points : 601
    Join date : 2015-04-22

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Rodinazombie Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:50 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:Basically Kyiv ask why Putin visit Krym

    http://гордза.рф/2015/08/17/mid-ukrainy-trebuet-razyasnit-poezdku-putina-v-krym/

    Because of FU?

    RZ: No body is banning him, but he was bound to get ostracized, he knew that when he signed. And he isn't repenting at the other side. So yeah he's gonne get some hot tub love. But he's safe from terminal situations. Hey, better a "dhimmi" here than banned there...

    Yeah i understand that, but surely the best thing is just to ignore his posts than start a catfight and give him a load of attention each time he posts? Thats what i do.
    KoTeMoRe
    KoTeMoRe


    Posts : 4212
    Points : 4227
    Join date : 2015-04-21
    Location : Krankhaus Central.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  KoTeMoRe Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:57 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:Basically Kyiv ask why Putin visit Krym

    http://гордза.рф/2015/08/17/mid-ukrainy-trebuet-razyasnit-poezdku-putina-v-krym/

    Because of FU?

    RZ: No body is banning him, but he was bound to get ostracized, he knew that when he signed. And he isn't repenting at the other side. So yeah he's gonne get some hot tub love. But he's safe from terminal situations. Hey, better a "dhimmi" here than banned there...

    Yeah i understand that, but surely the best thing is just to ignore his posts than start a catfight and give him a load of attention each time he posts? Thats what i do.

    I've been massively civil to him at every instance. I don't start to chomp off on his buttocks like the baseline debiloids at MP.net. He has actually quite the airtime here. If he wants to discuss things, we're all for that. Some will have contradictory opinions, some will slander him. Personally, he's done enough to warrant him self a dozen of cold showers, but there's no point thinking we'll skin the man alive. Mostly here don't care. Even sektor wasn't offensive. He stated his opinion. Period. I'd rather have someone else from MP.net so I could you as a real punching ball, now that all holds are barred, but we got Dforce. That's life.
    avatar
    Guest
    Guest


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Guest Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:58 am

    auslander wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    Chersonesus wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:This business of osce suddenly telling the truth is very interesting.

    Totally agree:

    On 15 August the SMM unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) observed in DPR-controlled areas: one ‘R-330ZH Zhitel’ jamming communication station [...]
    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/177826

    Guess the seps built it out of Lego.. russia

    From the SMM report regarding Gorlovka, the OSCE write

    "On 16 August in “DPR”-controlled Horlivka (38km north-north-east of Donetsk) some male residents told the SMM that shelling had taken place during the previous night. The SMM observed three destroyed houses with fresh marks of recent shelling. ... At the scene, three middle-aged women aggressed the monitors verbally and physically, criticizing the SMM activities and expressing frustration about the shelling."

    Two comments for the OSCE - i) learn English - 'three middle-aged women aggressed the monitors' - 'aggressed' ??? and ii) aw diddums, the poor little military spies were scared of women who have endured shelling of their homes, enabled by OSCE inactions.

    OSCE reporting two or three incidents of the orcs shelling DPR and LPR civilians is not a game changer, it is an insult to the living civilians and all our dead and wounded civilians from the last 16 months. It is probably a very good thing that the face of that OSCE operative being shaken by the lady was not shown, but after watching the vid several times it looks to me like he is grinning through part of the event. If he was that may have been a nervous reaction to the physical contact with the lady. I see the day coming when OSCE operatives are set upon by the civilians and I think that day will be soon.

    OSCE also had another little incident involving a DPR member:

    "On 16 August, the SMM was stopped at a “DPR” checkpoint in Olenivka, (“DPR”-controlled, 23km south-west of Donetsk) by “DPR” member who approached the SMM holding an unexploded shell in his hands. According to the interlocutor it had been fired at them the previous night. During a short conversation one of the “DPR” members present started criticizing the SMM for its activities and another one threw the shell into the SMM vehicle. After the SMM insisted, the “DPR” member took the shell out of the vehicle. Later, when analysing photo evidence of the shell, the SMM assessed that it had been a 122mm artillery shell."

    I would imagine that the OSCE operatives involved in the arty shell deal had to run back to Hotel and change their knickers hastily and then be given intensive counseling for the severe mental trauma from the incident.  

    The OSCE incident chart, usually an addendum to their reports:

    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/177836?download=true

    The leopard did not, can not and will not change it's stripes. Their reports will continue to be heavily biased and we should never expect any other result.
    I'm curious, where do most of the OSCE observers hail from? It feels like they have gotten worse and worse as the conflict has drawn on.

    I don't know. There are at least a few Russians because the orcs keep stopping the convoys and doing document checks and the orcs have in the past refused entry by OSCE to areas or facilities when Russians are in the group. I have heard English, German, French and orcspeak during some of the vids.
    [/quote]
    Looked all over the web, nothing found. Be nice if the OSCE provided numbers and nationality of the observers. Speaking of which, we should get enough people here to email them about that. Really would help with their transparency as they have very little now. Small chance of it succeeding, but things like this have worked before and it could help keep them more accountable and to be fair to the people suffering in the Donbass.
    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1637
    Points : 1715
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  auslander Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:32 am

    "Looked all over the web, nothing found. Be nice if the OSCE provided numbers and nationality of the observers. Speaking of which, we should get enough people here to email them about that. Really would help with their transparency as they have very little now. Small chance of it succeeding, but things like this have worked before and it could help keep them more accountable and to be fair to the people suffering in the Donbass."

    In theory the operatives can come from any member state, in practice I equate them with US/EU and it is obvious they had an agenda from the very beginning last year. One of the better moments of my recent life was last March when a herd of them showed up at our north borders, if memory serves it was before the referendum. The looks on their collective faces when they were denied entry was priceless. This was a 'military' OSCE delegation consisting of military officers, at least one of whom was American and one German. Others I don't remember, but the argument was not short. OSCE insisted they had the right to go anywhere and Opolchensya/Berkut simply said 'No' to every argument they presented. In the end OSCE pulled their pants up and left.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15486
    Points : 15627
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  JohninMK Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:17 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    sektor wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Look Dforce, if your sole intention is to piss off Russian posters by your "epic trole mate xDDDD eeksdeee!!" attitude then I suggest you just stay away. You obviously know people support Donbass here so why bother? I remember you clearly from MP.net and your unconditional support of Kiev. I'll never forget you and your friends like Asheren, kalerab, CourageAboveAllValues and the other batshit insane people from that place.

    I honestly do not think I am the topic here, and if you can show me where I have been trolling you are welcome. Besides, I do not think it okay to call other posters "batshit insane".

    Seriously man  you are not welcomed here. Go back to cesspool called themess.

    I feel like i have to step in here.

    Slagging of another member just because he has an opposing view is not right.  The reasons that the mess is such a cesspit is partly down to the biased moderation and the way it deals with people who have a dissenting voice. Dont you think its pretty sad that you are doing exactly the same in reverse? Dont complain about the mess if your standards are no better.

    My views on dforce and his opinions are well known, but he has the right to his opinion as much as anyone as long he does it in the right way, the same as all of us. We should be grateful to have the opposite point lf view here as whether we like it or not there are two sides to this story, he can help fill in a few blanks that are often missed here.

    Very well put. If you are at all interested in making a valid judgement on a situation the only way you can do it is to consider the view of both sides. In some ways, especially when a contra view person provides information, as opposed to opinion, that can be more valuable than the general consensus view held by most here.

    Dforce in particular is civil and all know where he stands. Many may find him not to their liking but better him than many of the others over there. Put him on ignore if he really gets your goat but otherwise be civil, he is a contrary but still valuable asset to the site.
    Neutrality
    Neutrality


    Posts : 888
    Points : 906
    Join date : 2015-05-02

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Neutrality Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:35 pm

    The reason why I replied to Dforce in an aggressive tone is because of bullshit like this:

    Dforce wrote:

       Rodinazombie wrote:
       This business of osce suddenly telling the truth is very interesting.


    Totally agree:

       On 15 August the SMM unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) observed in DPR-controlled areas: one ‘R-330ZH Zhitel’ jamming communication station [...]

    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/177826

    Guess the seps built it out of Lego..

    If you don't think this is blatant troll bait then I don't know. Rodinazombie writes one thing then he replies in a completely different tone. I simply don't like his childish sarcasm ("Guess the seps built it out of Lego") when this place slams the OSCE for their unwillingness to make objective reports. Tell me honestly, you expect me to be serious when he's not?
    Khepesh
    Khepesh


    Posts : 1666
    Points : 1735
    Join date : 2015-04-22
    Location : Ахетатон и Уасет

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Khepesh Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:55 pm

    Scum in other places are making Sartana as if it were the equivalent of what ukrops have done to Donbass since last year and so "justifies" killing Donbass civilians. Yet I presume people now know that Sartana was hit by ukrops themselves, either by the outgoing seen from Mariupol the other night, and described as outgoing by the filmer, or by ukrops closer to Sartana. Where damage can be clearly seen to be from a general direction, it is on south or west side of buildings, and Mariupol is to the SW. Residents themselves blame ukrops and say they were hit by mortars, which precludes Mariupol as the distance is too far, but no VSN positions are in mortar range of Sartana either. I expect more of this around and in Mariupol.
    Flagship Victory
    Flagship Victory


    Posts : 973
    Points : 921
    Join date : 2015-04-28
    Location : Canada

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Flagship Victory Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:16 pm

    1 Maidan soldier KIA and 1 Maidan soldier WIA yesterday cheers
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15486
    Points : 15627
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  JohninMK Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:30 pm

    Neutrality wrote:The reason why I replied to Dforce in an aggressive tone is because of bullshit like this:

    Dforce wrote:

       Rodinazombie wrote:
       This business of osce suddenly telling the truth is very interesting.


    Totally agree:

       On 15 August the SMM unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) observed in DPR-controlled areas: one ‘R-330ZH Zhitel’ jamming communication station [...]

    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/177826

    Guess the seps built it out of Lego..

    If you don't think this is blatant troll bait then I don't know. Rodinazombie writes one thing then he replies in a completely different tone. I simply don't like his childish sarcasm ("Guess the seps built it out of Lego") when this place slams the OSCE for their unwillingness to make objective reports. Tell me honestly, you expect me to be serious when he's not?
    If that is the best argument that can be made it shows a weak case, so just smile.
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 13433
    Points : 13473
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  PapaDragon Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:34 pm

    Dforce wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote: As a result, people are going to attack you personally whether it is for a reason or not. You and the discussion about Ukraine would be much better off if you didn't post here because someone will find it provocative. I don't mean this as anything personal from me, just thought I ought let you know.

    No problems. As long as the moderators are taking care of all that off topic I see no reason why those of us that DO wamt to discuss Ukraine should not be able to do that.

    And, on that note, when do you lot expect this Ukrainian offensive to start? I do not understand how you reason when you think that Ukraine will go on the offensive; that is the last thing those footing the bill for Kiev wants, and in the end of the day it is the other side that needs to do something if they want Donetsk out of arty range.

    I'm not a fan of Bid D here by any measure, I would probably disagree with him on color of the sky if that were the topic (cerulean or viridian?) and I will never pass on a chance to rip on him but I do respect the fact that he came here using his original identity unlike lots of recent additions we had who come here from TheMess using new usernames so they could just insult others, throw ethnic/racist slurs around an troll in general.

    So I say live and let live with those who at least make an effort to be honest about who they are and focus our hatred on full blown trolls (check out economy treads and you'll see what I'm talking about).


    --------


    As for you question about ukrop offensive Big D, yes UAF offensive is the last thing their sponsors want but also keep in mind that, unlike junta's, survival of those same sponsors does not depend on aforementioned offensive.

    They either win(next to impossible) or get ripped to shreads and start mooching for money even harder.

    Either is good for Kiev and clock is ticking....
    Khepesh
    Khepesh


    Posts : 1666
    Points : 1735
    Join date : 2015-04-22
    Location : Ахетатон и Уасет

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Khepesh Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:46 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    If that is the best argument that can be made it shows a weak case, so just smile.
    They damage themselves by their own words. Even on a forum where they are in the majority, Ukraine thread is quiet unless a Novorossiya supporter posts news, then it is attacked by personal insult or usually by distraction techniques. They rarely ever initiate posts, primarily I think because they do not actually give a fuck about Ukraine and do not and cannot read source material, only some copy paste of Kiev propaganda regurgitated for the west. It is easy to flood with photo, video and personal account of what happens in Donbass, yet these Kiev "supporters" give nothing, no ukrops patriotic music video, no video or photo of training, no journalists reports from the ukrops front unless very stage managed, no "citizen journalist" material of which there is huge amounts from Donbass, but nothing from ukrops. They have nothing, they are simply Russophobes who care nothing for Ukraine. Tell the truth on one of their forums and see the spite and hatred that pours from them like a tsunami, tell the truth about the bombardments and face a ban. They are all scum, liers and cowards. rant over Smile
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 13433
    Points : 13473
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  PapaDragon Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:04 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:Basically Kyiv ask why Putin visit Krym

    http://гордза.рф/2015/08/17/mid-ukrainy-trebuet-razyasnit-poezdku-putina-v-krym/

    Why did Putin visit Crimea?

    Why did I give my students pop quiz couple of month ago?

    Official and correct answer: because it is my job.

    Unofficial and also correct answer: BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!! Twisted Evil lol1 Twisted Evil Twisted Evil lol1 Twisted Evil
    Khepesh
    Khepesh


    Posts : 1666
    Points : 1735
    Join date : 2015-04-22
    Location : Ахетатон и Уасет

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Khepesh Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:29 pm

    Good article on what may happen next. http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/129733/ All in Russian, but I have taken the main military points and condensed them with a few additons of my own which are more about clarification than changing what he says.

    VSN will not launch an offensive at this time as they do not have enough force.

    Ukrops will not launch a major offensive, and by that I mean to completely or mostly take Donbass, as they fear that major thrusts into Donbass will be cut off and yet another disaster in a kettle or kettles.

    Ukrops will not attempt to take Donetsk or Lugansk as they do not have enough forces, but may attempt to take Dokuchaevsk, Slavyanoserbsk or Gorlovka, and if so then probably Debaltsevo, or a combination of these.

    Any changes in the front line would not be large, that is if any ukrops offensive was succesfull, as their objective would be to disrupt state building in DNR/LNR.

    Changes in the front are not that vital in military terms, what is important for VSN is to defeat ukrops in the field, to smash their offensive formations and to then attack the second echelon forces. If this is successful, then depending on political situation, further progress into "greater Novorossiya" can be contemplated.

    There will be no Minsk three as if that occurs, or there is an attempt, then there will be a coup in Donbass, and despite what Putin wants and cutting off the tap, a VSN that has defeated the enemy main strike forces will do as it pleases. I will add that tho I think a Minsk three would cause very serious problems for DNR/LNR leadership, and if there was a coup then VSN would eventually run out of supplies, I do not see any possibility of a Minsk three, none.

    Personally I can believe that ukrops may try to cut off all VSN south of Dokuchaevsk. I have written about a future "Battle of Telmanovo" all this year and still think it will occur. I also think there may be an attempt by ukrops to take a lot more territory along the southern side of the Donets, but exactly were and now much I could not say, but do not see this as a priority for ukrops, possibly a feint. I do not count out them attempting to take Gorlovka. This will be difficult and need two of their strike forces and heavy force protection, but if all other attacks they make are some maskirovka, then they may think they can succeed. They will fail everywhere of course.
    Cowboy's daughter
    Cowboy's daughter


    Posts : 1894
    Points : 1933
    Join date : 2015-04-24
    Location : Texas

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Cowboy's daughter Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:21 pm

    Neutrality wrote:The reason why I replied to Dforce in an aggressive tone is because of bullshit like this:

    Dforce wrote:

       Rodinazombie wrote:
       This business of osce suddenly telling the truth is very interesting.


    Totally agree:

       On 15 August the SMM unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) observed in DPR-controlled areas: one ‘R-330ZH Zhitel’ jamming communication station [...]

    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/177826

    Guess the seps built it out of Lego..

    If you don't think this is blatant troll bait then I don't know. Rodinazombie writes one thing then he replies in a completely different tone. I simply don't like his childish sarcasm ("Guess the seps built it out of Lego") when this place slams the OSCE for their unwillingness to make objective reports. Tell me honestly, you expect me to be serious when he's not?

    DForce is like a white / Anglo person who called American Indians "dirty Indians" on a white forum, then goes to an American Indian forum to post, and the American Indians know he called them "dirty Indian" on the white /Anglo forum. Twisted Evil

    What kind of reception do you think they would give him?
    Cowboy's daughter
    Cowboy's daughter


    Posts : 1894
    Points : 1933
    Join date : 2015-04-24
    Location : Texas

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Cowboy's daughter Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:30 pm

    This may have already been posted

    Donetsk PM Zakharchenko : " Minsk agreements are torn apart, Kiev will attack us soon"


    Neutrality
    Neutrality


    Posts : 888
    Points : 906
    Join date : 2015-05-02

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Neutrality Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:40 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Good article on what may happen next. http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/129733/ All in Russian, but I have taken the main military points and condensed them with a few additons of my own which are more about clarification than changing what he says.

    VSN will not launch an offensive at this time as they do not have enough force.

    Ukrops will not launch a major offensive, and by that I mean to completely or mostly take Donbass, as they fear that major thrusts into Donbass will be cut off and yet another disaster in a kettle or kettles.

    Ukrops will not attempt to take Donetsk or Lugansk as they do not have enough forces, but may attempt to take Dokuchaevsk, Slavyanoserbsk or Gorlovka, and if so then probably Debaltsevo, or a combination of these.

    Any changes in the front line would not be large, that is if any ukrops offensive was succesfull, as their objective would be to disrupt state building in DNR/LNR.

    Changes in the front are not that vital in military terms, what is important for VSN is to defeat ukrops in the field, to smash their offensive formations and to then attack the second echelon forces. If this is successful, then depending on political situation, further progress into "greater Novorossiya" can be contemplated.

    There will be no Minsk three as if that occurs, or there is an attempt, then there will be a coup in Donbass, and despite what Putin wants and cutting off the tap, a VSN that has defeated the enemy main strike forces will do as it pleases. I will add that tho I think a Minsk three would cause very serious problems for DNR/LNR leadership, and if there was a coup then VSN would eventually run out of supplies, I do not see any possibility of a Minsk three, none.

    Personally I can believe that ukrops may try to cut off all VSN south of Dokuchaevsk. I have written about a future "Battle of Telmanovo" all this year and still think it will occur. I also think there may be an attempt by ukrops to take a lot more territory along the southern side of the Donets, but exactly were and now much I could not say, but do not see this as a priority for ukrops, possibly a feint. I do not count out them attempting to take Gorlovka. This will be difficult and need two of their strike forces and heavy force protection, but if all other attacks they make are some maskirovka, then they may think they can succeed. They will fail everywhere of course.

    Good piece. Although I don't agree about Kiev taking Gorlovka. That's a massive fortified position and impossible for Kiev to get unless they are really considering to waste more than half of their entire force to do it. But then what? The rest of their forces will be eliminated and eventually Gorlovka will be encircled and we'll be watching again how the VSU will try to break through the encirclement, leaving dozens of dead and wounded behind. Hey, if Poroshenko's advisors are really considering this option then I won't stop them.

    The author also gives good arguments why he thinks the war will resume eventually:

    -Energy resources are almost gone and they desperately need the coal mines in Donbass.
    -Poroshenko losing his political authority if he doesn't keep up the anti-Russian war rhetoric due to nationalistic sentiment.
    -Fear of an external war turning into an internal one in which Poroshenko won't survive.
    -Economy is on a life-line and basically on its last breath and it's imperative the people keep focusing on the war in Donbass.
    Cowboy's daughter
    Cowboy's daughter


    Posts : 1894
    Points : 1933
    Join date : 2015-04-24
    Location : Texas

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Cowboy's daughter Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:54 pm

    Is this now, or last year?

    Trains Ukrainian armored vehicles moving towards an endless stream of Donbass

    kap-the-head
    kap-the-head


    Posts : 13
    Points : 13
    Join date : 2015-05-02

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  kap-the-head Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:14 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote: As a result, people are going to attack you personally whether it is for a reason or not. You and the discussion about Ukraine would be much better off if you didn't post here because someone will find it provocative. I don't mean this as anything personal from me, just thought I ought let you know.

    No problems. As long as the moderators are taking care of all that off topic I see no reason why those of us that DO wamt to discuss Ukraine should not be able to do that.

    And, on that note, when do you lot expect this Ukrainian offensive to start? I do not understand how you reason when you think that Ukraine will go on the offensive; that is the last thing those footing the bill for Kiev wants, and in the end of the day it is the other side that needs to do something if they want Donetsk out of arty range.

    I'm not a fan of Bid D here by any measure, I would probably disagree with him on color of the sky if that were the topic (cerulean or viridian?) and I will never pass on a chance to rip on him but I do respect the fact that he came here using his original identity unlike lots of recent additions we had who come here from TheMess using new usernames so they could just insult others, throw ethnic/racist slurs around an troll in general.

    So I say live and let live with those who at least make an effort to be honest about who they are and focus our hatred on full blown trolls (check out economy treads and you'll see what I'm talking about).


    --------


    As for you question about ukrop offensive Big D, yes UAF offensive is the last thing their sponsors want but also keep in mind that, unlike junta's, survival of those same sponsors does not depend on aforementioned offensive.

    They either win(next to impossible) or get ripped to shreads and start mooching for money even harder.

    Either is good for Kiev and clock is ticking....

    This... I often don't agree with his point of view as well, nevertheless, it is important to see what "the other" side sees in this conflict. And yes, props to him for sticking his nose in this forum. Ironically, I find him more interesting than Flagship guy...
    KoTeMoRe
    KoTeMoRe


    Posts : 4212
    Points : 4227
    Join date : 2015-04-21
    Location : Krankhaus Central.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  KoTeMoRe Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:18 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Is this now, or last year?

    Trains Ukrainian armored vehicles moving towards an endless stream of Donbass


    there's a fat chance this is from last year given some of those numbers appear on units wrecked in August last year.
    Cowboy's daughter
    Cowboy's daughter


    Posts : 1894
    Points : 1933
    Join date : 2015-04-24
    Location : Texas

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Cowboy's daughter Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:22 pm

    Thanks, KoTeMoRe!

    This video - a gift creator and commander Humbatov "Angel", the director and the singer Alexei Smirnov, soldiers invincible battalion of Viking ...


    KoTeMoRe
    KoTeMoRe


    Posts : 4212
    Points : 4227
    Join date : 2015-04-21
    Location : Krankhaus Central.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  KoTeMoRe Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:35 pm

    Here Unit 132 after:
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 10645056_1591568257767394_7353898992785108698_n

    Courtesy of Lost Armour guys.
    avatar
    Chersonesus


    Posts : 24
    Points : 26
    Join date : 2015-08-10
    Location : UK

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Chersonesus Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:40 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Is this now, or last year?

    Trains Ukrainian armored vehicles moving towards an endless stream of Donbass


    FWIW, my non-expert observations

    i) There doesn't appear to be any heavy weaponry, just about 14 support/supply vehicles and about 36 BMPs (I hope that is right). Some of the BMPs do not appear to have turrets so maybe they are other types of vehicle? The hardware certainly isn't the shiny stuff shown off by Turchynov a few days ago.

    ii) There is a very sombre feel to the whole thing. The troops, apart from a couple waving a flag, are silent, as are most of the civilians watching. This does not have the feel of a confident military heading to battle with the support of the civilian population.
    avatar
    Guest
    Guest


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Guest Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:44 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote: As a result, people are going to attack you personally whether it is for a reason or not. You and the discussion about Ukraine would be much better off if you didn't post here because someone will find it provocative. I don't mean this as anything personal from me, just thought I ought let you know.

    No problems. As long as the moderators are taking care of all that off topic I see no reason why those of us that DO wamt to discuss Ukraine should not be able to do that.

    And, on that note, when do you lot expect this Ukrainian offensive to start? I do not understand how you reason when you think that Ukraine will go on the offensive; that is the last thing those footing the bill for Kiev wants, and in the end of the day it is the other side that needs to do something if they want Donetsk out of arty range.

    I'm not a fan of Bid D here by any measure, I would probably disagree with him on color of the sky if that were the topic (cerulean or viridian?) and I will never pass on a chance to rip on him but I do respect the fact that he came here using his original identity unlike lots of recent additions we had who come here from TheMess using new usernames so they could just insult others, throw ethnic/racist slurs around an troll in general.

    So I say live and let live with those who at least make an effort to be honest about who they are and focus our hatred on full blown trolls (check out economy treads and you'll see what I'm talking about).


    --------


    As for you question about ukrop offensive Big D, yes UAF offensive is the last thing their sponsors want but also keep in mind that, unlike junta's, survival of those same sponsors does not depend on aforementioned offensive.

    They either win(next to impossible) or get ripped to shreads and start mooching for money even harder.

    Either is good for Kiev and clock is ticking....
    Fully agree with this assessment.
    Khepesh
    Khepesh


    Posts : 1666
    Points : 1735
    Join date : 2015-04-22
    Location : Ахетатон и Уасет

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Khepesh Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:52 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Is this now, or last year?

    Trains Ukrainian armored vehicles moving towards an endless stream of Donbass

    An interesting comment under the video.........

    Sponsored content


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 2 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Oct 04, 2024 4:29 pm