The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

SturmGuard wrote:We shouldn't allow our emotions and sympathies cloud our judgment and perception of reality. NAF launching an offensive with the aim of pushing UkrOps and preventing artillery fire on major Donbass population centers would mean heavy losses, destruction of settlements where UkrOps are dug-in and lots of collateral civilian casualties. There is no other way to dislodge defenders from their positions.

True, but sometimes you just have to go for it. Syrian rebels wouldn't have been able to liberate Idlib had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have been able to liberate Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. NAF wouldn't have been able to liberate Debaltsevo had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage.

SturmGuard wrote:

franco wrote:Good points and still like the way you think. There is very accurate and effective counter battery fire going on after hours once the OSCE goes to bed. But I still stand on how the NAF feels.  

We shouldn't allow our emotions and sympathies cloud our judgment and perception of reality. NAF launching an offensive with the aim of pushing UkrOps and preventing artillery fire on major Donbass population centers would mean heavy losses, destruction of settlements where UkrOps are dug-in and lots of collateral civilian casualties. There is no other way to dislodge defenders from their positions.

You could always push for peace and pull back under the Minsk agreements,  it seems to be the last option people want, they would rather fight on both sides.

Erk wrote:You could always push for peace and pull back under the Minsk agreements,  it seems to be the last option people want, they would rather fight on both sides.

If I remember correctly, Minsk agreement has some obligations outlined. That none of them have been fulfilled tells a lot about the nature of this agreement. And the fact that "neutral" EU is somehow part of the negotiations, the same EU that pushed for Yanuk and UkrOp agreement, gave guarantees and then sat back and watched with delight what occured, in addition to cynical silence on the atrocities afterwards?


Well, obviously no one is fooled by their "pacifism". The successful resistance and mere survival of DNR/LNR is a defeat for regime/ATO, while not quite a victory for NAF yet.

franco wrote:First report of Right Sector troops leaving the ATO and heading north. Will have to watch for some confirmations.

They are useless shits, how many times did they leave ATO zone?

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

And some people here want NAF to sacrifice their lives to ''liberate'' these morons.

Just a couple more months...

Way out of context of what I have ever said or meant... And the view of sit and wait is particular to anglophone forums, not Russian military and Donbass supporting networks where it gets shouted down. I speak for a majority viewpoint on such networks.

Wasn't talking about you.

Also, a lot of us here do not subscribe so openly to NAF offensive option because it would be distasteful of us since we live in neither Donbass nor Russia. Some folks here are literally on the other side of the planet.

Talk is cheap and we are simply trying to be respectful.

I would have nothing against successful NAF offensive but I would prefer to have some more guarantees that gains would be significant and that geopolitical and casualtie costs for Russia and Novo would be very low.

There is old Serbian wisdom that says: ''On someone else's ass even hundred sticks do not hurt''

Flagship Victory wrote:

SturmGuard wrote:We shouldn't allow our emotions and sympathies cloud our judgment and perception of reality. NAF launching an offensive with the aim of pushing UkrOps and preventing artillery fire on major Donbass population centers would mean heavy losses, destruction of settlements where UkrOps are dug-in and lots of collateral civilian casualties. There is no other way to dislodge defenders from their positions.

True, but sometimes you just have to go for it. Syrian rebels wouldn't have been able to liberate Idlib had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have been able to liberate Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. NAF wouldn't have been able to liberate Debaltsevo had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage.

You think the Saudi-Turkish backed jihadist head-chopping filth have liberated Idlib????
You think the Ukrops liberated Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk????

With all due respects, I think you need to shut your fucking mouth.

SturmGuard wrote:

Erk wrote:You could always push for peace and pull back under the Minsk agreements,  it seems to be the last option people want, they would rather fight on both sides.

If I remember correctly, Minsk agreement has some obligations outlined. That none of them have been fulfilled tells a lot about the nature of this agreement. And the fact that "neutral" EU is somehow part of the negotiations, the same EU that pushed for Yanuk and UkrOp agreement, gave guarantees and then sat back and watched with delight what occured, in addition to cynical silence on the atrocities afterwards?


Well, obviously no one is fooled by their "pacifism". The successful resistance and mere survival of DNR/LNR is a defeat for regime/ATO, while not quite a victory for NAF yet.

If it was just a tacit agreement they could avoid it, but it's subject to a UNSC resolution, not to be taken lightly.

SturmGuard wrote:

Erk wrote:You could always push for peace and pull back under the Minsk agreements,  it seems to be the last option people want, they would rather fight on both sides.

If I remember correctly, Minsk agreement has some obligations outlined. That none of them have been fulfilled tells a lot about the nature of this agreement. And the fact that "neutral" EU is somehow part of the negotiations, the same EU that pushed for Yanuk and UkrOp agreement, gave guarantees and then sat back and watched with delight what occured, in addition to cynical silence on the atrocities afterwards?


Well, obviously no one is fooled by their "pacifism". The successful resistance and mere survival of DNR/LNR is a defeat for regime/ATO, while not quite a victory for NAF yet.

Do not think the EU is the "neutral" part on Minsk agreements. There we have:

Novorussia
Russia
---------------------------------- (the neutral axis is between Russia and the EU)
EU (Germany+France)
Ukraine

Russia and EU are the mediation between both sides of the conflict.

eehnie wrote:Do not think the EU is the "neutral" part on Minsk agreements. There we have:

Novorussia
Russia
---------------------------------- (the neutral axis is between Russia and the EU)
EU (Germany+France)
Ukraine

Russia and EU are the mediation between both sides of the conflict.

The EU is not neutral, especially not France and Germany. They are NATO and they hate Russia. They devised Minsk 2 and pretend to guarantee it only to buy time for their puppet Poroshenko.

Poroshenko purposely breaks Minsk 2. Now it's only a question of who blinks first.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-draft-constitutional-amendments-do-not-foresee-special-status-for-russian-occupied-donetsk-luhansk-396916.html

Flagship Victory wrote:Poroshenko purposely breaks Minsk 2. Now it's only a question of who blinks first.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-draft-constitutional-amendments-do-not-foresee-special-status-for-russian-occupied-donetsk-luhansk-396916.html

As i told you.. Ukraine cannot "BREAK" a document they signed and by international law
they are under obligation to Implement.. and "get away" with it.. they can only delay it..  
But not for very long.. European will keep the pressure on poroshenko and kiev and they will
have NO CHOICE but to implement it..  Ukraine cannot exist isolated from Europe and France and
Germany are not going to back down with Minks-2.   Is either Ukraine implement Minsk-2 or become isolated from Europe. and receive no more economical help or trade or not even electricity or Gas.. Good luck with that.

As long as France And Germany with most of Europe stand firm with Ukraine need to
implement minks-2.. Ukraine is doomed.. it have no choice but to do it.. it will resist but
it cannot avoid it..

Flagship Victory wrote:

eehnie wrote:Do not think the EU is the "neutral" part on Minsk agreements. There we have:

Novorussia
Russia
---------------------------------- (the neutral axis is between Russia and the EU)
EU (Germany+France)
Ukraine

Russia and EU are the mediation between both sides of the conflict.

The EU is not neutral, especially not France and Germany. They are NATO and they hate Russia. They devised Minsk 2 and pretend to guarantee it only to buy time for their puppet Poroshenko.

They are not neutral, but they hate not Russia. They are trying to consolidate the new favourable government in Ukraine, and they are trying that Ukraine reach the criteria to join EU and NATO as fast as possible (to be a country in peace and with not territorial troubles), but they want not a war with Russia. In overall terms Europe wants not a war with Russia, the war is highly unpopular in most European countries, and Europe will not follow Poroshenko in his wish of war.

Even the most militaristic countries of Eastern Europe want not a war vs Russia. They want to be defended by the US while they up the head toward Russia, but they want not a war. They are not silly and they know how weak is their current defense. You seems to dream with a new forced "coalition" like in Irak in 2003, but this is far from real at this point.

Despite it, if you really want the war, and you are ready to die there, you can fight yourself in the war. But I do not think you will do, you seems to want that others die in this war in your place.

Flagship Victory wrote:

SturmGuard wrote:We shouldn't allow our emotions and sympathies cloud our judgment and perception of reality. NAF launching an offensive with the aim of pushing UkrOps and preventing artillery fire on major Donbass population centers would mean heavy losses, destruction of settlements where UkrOps are dug-in and lots of collateral civilian casualties. There is no other way to dislodge defenders from their positions.

True, but sometimes you just have to go for it. Syrian rebels wouldn't have been able to liberate Idlib had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have been able to liberate Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. NAF wouldn't have been able to liberate Debaltsevo had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage.

Then go for it man, go for it yourself. I'm sure that Poroshenko would give you a nice place in one of these "new" "ready to burn" "awesome" Humvees or Saxons that he is getting. They are NATO vehicles, nothing less. Do you feel courageous enough or not still?

Flagship Victory wrote:

SturmGuard wrote:We shouldn't allow our emotions and sympathies cloud our judgment and perception of reality. NAF launching an offensive with the aim of pushing UkrOps and preventing artillery fire on major Donbass population centers would mean heavy losses, destruction of settlements where UkrOps are dug-in and lots of collateral civilian casualties. There is no other way to dislodge defenders from their positions.

True, but sometimes you just have to go for it. Syrian rebels wouldn't have been able to liberate Idlib had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have been able to liberate Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage. NAF wouldn't have been able to liberate Debaltsevo had they sat on their asses afraid of sacrifices and collateral damage.

Actually there's no need to "liberate" cities by destroying positions. Debaltsevo was a way better supplied nod that Mariupol could ever hope to be and had seasoned troops. Yet it fell because the NAF went deep. This time around they can fo the same thing they did with Novo azovsk. Faint a seaborne attack and Push at the Kalchyk reservoir blocking off Mariupol reinforcements and attracting Volnovakha troops on them. That would allow for a complete clearing of the Marinka area around Donetsk. This would shift the UA's M group to defend Berdyansk around Azov Urzuf axis. And open the B group area to probing attacks around Gorlovka, stretching B group thin. Normally in this case Group A will try and push around Lugansk at the Shiorki Valuyisk axis to relieve the pressure (those idiots can be taken by Russian forces in a mini kettle). This leaves only Group C to be dealt with in case it reinforces the area around Gorlovka. Then it needs to be exposed to Northern wind.

If it goes OK-ish the battle for Donbass is over in two months fighting, stabilizing and political agreement included. At the end of the day you would have about 25 000 dead Ukrainians and as much as 10 thousand Novorussians and Russians. The tricky part is carfully understand at which moment to throw in the Russian forces along the border. If they're late their presence will be detected when they'll attack the Ukrainian read guard. If they're too early that would probably freeze Ukranian movement and trap NAF into another ceasefire quagmire.

Ukraine's weak point is the need for redundant logistics and sustainement because of very bad logistic lines. At Debaltsevo 10-12 men positions were stacked for whole companies. breaking the lines so far has worked. I see no issue why it couldn't work again. UA forces haven't gotten anything relatively better than last time.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

And some people here want NAF to sacrifice their lives to ''liberate'' these morons.

Just a couple more months...

Way out of context of what I have ever said or meant... And the view of sit and wait is particular to anglophone forums, not Russian military and Donbass supporting networks where it gets shouted down. I speak for a majority viewpoint on such networks.

Wasn't talking about you.

Also, a lot of us here do not subscribe so openly to NAF offensive option because it would be distasteful of us since we live in neither Donbass nor Russia. Some folks here are literally on the other side of the planet.

Talk is cheap and we are simply trying to be respectful.

I would have nothing against successful NAF offensive but I would prefer to have some more guarantees that gains would be significant and that geopolitical and casualtie costs for Russia and Novo would be very low.

There is old Serbian wisdom that says: ''On someone else's ass even hundred sticks do not hurt''

My own posts are used to make my position seem that of reckless clown and are turned around and used as black propaganda. If certain posters agree with me and mimic what I have said with ludicrous additions, then my position, which is majority position on Russian Donbass supporting networks, is damaged becuase it appears to put me in same boat as various clowns who are here with a black purpose. The position of majoriy of Donbass is to attack, the position of many of those soldiers of VSN who appear on the networks is to attack. I simply express my own opinion and mirror this majority opinion. While "Putinbots" are said to have overwhelmed the entire internet to turn world opinion towards Russia, I see no significant evidence of this at the level of individuals, only various media and comment sites. But on Russian networks there are attempts at individual level that are clearly engineered to discredit and stop any talk of attacking, even to the level of calling people "traitors" if they suggest that one mortar round is fired back at ukrops, and any suggestion of a single VSN soldier stepping over the demarcation line is attacked as if they called for the death of all the first born. Such posters who make these attacks do not last long, sometimes only minutes before they are banned. No need to search all the networks for examples, simply look at comments on kassad. Raccoons were infested at one point but the admin is very energetic at cleaning. Those who show a seemingly pathalogical hatred towards any sort of attack and want all to be some "love in" with the "partners", are called Kremlyadi, and that is being polite. And to be clear, calling a poster a Kremlyadi is not an attack on Putin, as it seems many of these kremlyadi are the type who get their news from "Echo Moskvy" and "Dozhd". I avoided using this name here, but I see it manifested. I do not sniff round posters that express the position of doing nothing, that is their affair, yet some of my posts are commented on in a way that suggests that the object of the comment is not aimed to convert me, which is impossible, but to try and tell other posters what to think. I will also make it clear, if I did not already do so, that I make comments from a purely military perspective based on the military postion as it is now and as I see it developing. I do not give a fuck about economics, five year plans, how many rivets on some equipment, "partners" or any such boring garbage. I prefer to discuss how to advance to Kherson and cross the Dnepr, not the decreasing wages and calory intake of ukrops. Well, without insults of course, I hope I made my position clear, if it was not already obvious.

Regular wrote:

franco wrote:First report of Right Sector troops leaving the ATO and heading north. Will have to watch for some confirmations.

They are useless shits, how many times did they leave ATO zone?

This. The Right Sector paramilitaries must have left and came back during the Mukachevo crisis about a hundred times.