The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

JohninMK wrote:Yes, well, mmmm, my highlight.

KIEV (Sputnik) — Kiev has fulfilled its commitments under the Minsk agreement and hopes to regain control over the Donbass region until the end of the year, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Sunday.

On Thursday, Poroshenko submitted a proposal on constitutional amendments which would address the special status of the Donbass region to the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.

"It is Ukraine's obligations to carry out constitutional reforms. We are ahead of the schedule, with the 11th article [of the Minsk agreement] de facto fulfilled. We have launched the process of constitutional amendments. Now, Russia must begin to carry out its obligations as it should be 'until the end of the year.' Russia must withdraw illegal armed formations, close the border and give the border control back to Ukraine," Poroshenko told the ICTV television channel in an interview. Poroshenko added that "the understanding with the Ukrainian brothers will be found" as soon as Ukraine regains control over the Donbass region.

Constitutional amendments providing more autonomy to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions were stipulated by the February Minsk agreements signed by Kiev and Donbass representatives, along with a ceasefire deal.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150719/1024815652.html#ixzz3gNe2STvx

Nuland said that was so two or three days ago, ergo it has to be so. Expect EUUSA to start parroting the same line today if they haven't already. I especially like this line:

"the understanding with the Ukrainian brothers will be found" as soon as Ukraine regains control over the Donbass region."

From the orc's actions in recent past we know exactly how that understanding will be carried out.

Lenta.ru has an interesting article about the pull back of NAF. It mentions that UA have dug in around Donbass, and offensive on behalf of NAF would be costly. Drawing UA closer to you, making them come out of their trenches, can be a key to a successful counter offense.

kap-the-head wrote:Lenta.ru has an interesting article about the pull back of NAF.  It mentions that UA have dug in around Donbass, and offensive on behalf of NAF would be costly. Drawing UA closer to you, making them come out of their trenches, can be a key to a successful counter offense.

Except the UA will already know this if it's to the stage of people on forums talking about it.

IED based on RGD-5 grenade exploded at cafe Liberty on Rishelevskaya in downtown Odessa this morning and one person injured.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

kap-the-head wrote:Lenta.ru has an interesting article about the pull back of NAF.  It mentions that UA have dug in around Donbass, and offensive on behalf of NAF would be costly. Drawing UA closer to you, making them come out of their trenches, can be a key to a successful counter offense.

The junta is not going to attack. It will put its artillery positions nearer to Donetsk and shell the city even more.

If they get closer , moving away from their trenches.. they will be vulnerable , and same with artillery.. If the report is correct.. is more like a trap.. The Rebels have to have marked ,every place they control near the front line.. So if the Ukraine army advance and try to capture more territory ,their will be exposed in the open.. and the Rebels will not need to aim much to get
accurate hits ,since the entire border they control have to be with locators that can guide artillery.. and hidden cameras too..  It will be like a mine field if the move forware will have to do it very slowly.  We will see..

But what it is clear ..is that Russia do have many cards to play to destroy Ukraine if there is a need for it.. if anything fails.. Russia for example can start a new front in Kharkiv and that means kiev will need to split their army and possibly maybe a new front in Odessa but that one will be more harder to implement. Russia can also start a new front in Western Ukraine in the hungarian zones with a bit of help of HUngary ,that its president even though is part of EU and a NATO member.. is friendly to Russia and with a bit of help a new front near Kiev through Belarus.. if he manage to convince Lukashenko that the goal is to pressure Kiev to fully comply with Minsk-2..and give autonomy to rebelious zones. and that Russia have no intention to annex any more territory.

Any other small armed revolution in any other city other than Donetsk and lugansk..can do a lot
of damage to Ukraine economy and halt any loans of the IMF.. they want to give loans to help ukraine ,but they will not do it if they notice Ukraine is disbanding.

kap-the-head wrote:Lenta.ru has an interesting article about the pull back of NAF.  It mentions that UA have dug in around Donbass, and offensive on behalf of NAF would be costly. Drawing UA closer to you, making them come out of their trenches, can be a key to a successful counter offense.

Exactly what I said several days before this. It's quite clear to me that they are baiting the VSU into attacking.

Erk wrote:

Except the UA will already know this if it's to the stage of people on forums talking about it.

Don't confuse knowledge and acting upon this knowledge. So now that the NAF made their move what's the VSU going to do? Continue to shell Donetsk? Not going to fly, even the OSCE aren't this level 100-retarded. Telling the world that tne resistance is shelling their own cities is not going to work this time.

Erk wrote:

kap-the-head wrote:Lenta.ru has an interesting article about the pull back of NAF.  It mentions that UA have dug in around Donbass, and offensive on behalf of NAF would be costly. Drawing UA closer to you, making them come out of their trenches, can be a key to a successful counter offense.

Except the UA will already know this if it's to the stage of people on forums talking about it.

So we have a situation where NAF is able to relocate their heavy hitters at their discretion and UAF just sits there too scared to even make a play for it despite superior numbers?

This is definitive proof that those shellings are not sign of strenght as some posters here think and as Porky & co would like everyone to believe.

Instead they are clear sign of desperation. Ukrops have opportunity here, risky but still, opportunity to make serious progress on the front. Instead they are too scared to leave safety of their holes while the rest of their country is falling apart. They can stop this descent into anarchy by winning even if it's just a small victory and small territorial gain, but all they do is shell couple of rebel cities while rest of their country is becoming European Somalia.

While UAF destroys parts of rebel cities with artillery, NAF is destroying entire Ukraine by simply doing nothing.

There will be some major moves by NAF at some point but for now ukrops are doing most of the work for them.

Another video representing the country on the other side of the frontline:

PapaDragon wrote:Instead they are clear sign of desperation. [/b]Ukrops have opportunity here, risky but still, opportunity to make serious progress on the front. Instead they are too scared to leave safety of their holes while the rest of their country is falling apart. They can stop this descent into anarchy by winning even if it's just a small victory and small territorial gain, but all they do is shell couple of rebel cities while rest of their country is becoming European Somalia.

While UAF destroys parts of rebel cities with artillery, NAF is destroying entire Ukraine by simply doing nothing.

There will be some major moves by NAF at some point but for now ukrops are doing most of the work for them.

The regular UAF do not advance because it is not part of their strategy. It is not summer 2014.

Maidan claims NAF never pulled out any artillery under 100 mm and that NAF continues to shell civilians. As expected, NAF's PR stunts will never work.  

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/unian-situation-tense-in-east-ukraine-as-militants-fire-artillery-and-tanks-393844.html


Maidan claims 4 civilians in Donbas were killed by NAF shelling yesterday.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/four-civilians-killed-four-injured-in-artillery-fire-in-donetsk-region-on-july-19-393830.html


IMO, Maidan will never advance an inch. Maidan's orders come from Nuland these days.

The Odessa saga seems to have a new spokeswoman. Basically "I really want to stay Russian and RS is OK by me". If she renounces being Russian, can she get it back in the future?

KIEV, July 20. /TASS/. Maria Gaidar, the new deputy governor of south Ukraine's Odessa region said she does not want to renounce her Russian citizenship. Daughter of prominent Russian reformer appointed vice-governor of Ukraine's Odessa region "I don’t want to renounce Russian citizenship, but I will do what is required by the Ukrainian law," Gaidar told a press conference in Kiev.

Last week, Georgia’s former president and Odessa’s Governor Mikheil Saakashvili appointed Russian public figure Maria Gaidar as his deputy. Gaidar will be responsible for the social sphere. "She is an economist. She studied at the Academy of National Economy in Moscow and at Harvard University. I personally knew and respected her father Yegor Gaidar," Saakashvili wrote oh his Facebook page. "She moved to Odessa and will work at our administration," the Odessa governor added noting that he will ask Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to grant Gaidar Ukrainian citizenship. Ukrainian laws, however, prohibits the country’s citizens from holding dual citizenship.

Maria Gaidar is the daughter of Yegor Gaidar, an ideologist of liberal economic reforms in Russia in the 1990s. He was Russia’s acting prime minister from April to December 1992. He also held prominent state government posts under President Boris Yeltsin.

Maria Gaidar represents the so-called "non-systemic opposition" in Russia. She is the former vice-governor of Russia’s Kirov region and the head of the Social Request foundation. In 2014, she intended to run in elections to the Moscow State Duma but was not registered as a candidate. Gaidar is an active participant in a number of liberal pro-Western movements in Russia. In 2011, she studied at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.



KIEV, July 20. /TASS/. Maria Gaidar, Russian opposition figure recently appointed deputy governor of Ukraine’s Odessa region, said on Monday she saw no problem in the activity of the ultranationalist Right Sector group. "I am against gangsterism but Right Sector is part of Ukrainian policy," Gaidar told a news conference in Kiev. "They are entitled to their own views and they are entitled to express them. I see no problem as long as it is in a democratic way."

Right Sector was behind a contraband-related scandal in Ukraine’s western Trans-Carpathian region. On Saturday, July 11, gunmen of the Right Sector group, which is deemed extremist and banned in Russia, opened fire from small arms at their opponents while discussing the "redistribution of spheres of influence" in Mukachevo. The extremists later opened fire from rifles, heavy machine guns and grenade launchers at police who arrived at the scene. They destroyed several police vehicles and also set fire to a traffic police checkpoint and a petrol station. As a result, three people were killed and 11 more were wounded. The Right Sector gunmen escaped to the mountains. Prosecutors described the incident as a terrorist attack.

Georgia’s former president and Odessa region Governor Mikheil Saakashvili appointed Russian public figure Maria Gaidar his deputy last week. Gaidar will be responsible for the social sphere and first of all focus on refugees. "I will deal with social sphere. The priority is the issue of refugees," Gaidar told a briefing. "The situation with refugees in the Odessa Region was in limbo - people were accommodated in a sanatorium, and temporary became constant. My task is to start solving these problems as soon as possible," she noted adding that she will also "deal with issues of orphans and education."

Maria Gaidar represents the so-called non-systemic opposition in Russia. She is the former vice-governor of Russia’s Kirov region and the head of the Social Demand foundation. In 2014, she intended to run in elections to the Moscow State Duma but was not registered as a candidate. Gaidar is an active participant in a number of liberal pro-Western movements in Russia. In 2011, she studied at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

pravy sektor have set up a checkpoint, or rather taken over a checkpoint, on the border with PMR at the village of Tymkovo in Odessa oblast. "normal" Ukranian border guards and customs officers are said to welcome this and are willing to cooperate. Bizarre, complete anarchy... http://public.od.ua/news/2015/07/20/ps-ustanovil-blokpost/# and the location is here https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=29.290267%2C47.873327&z=13&l=map

Khepesh wrote:pravy sektor have set up a checkpoint, or rather taken over a checkpoint, on the border with PMR at the village of Tymkovo in Odessa oblast. "normal" Ukranian border guards and customs officers are said to welcome this and are willing to cooperate. Bizarre, complete anarchy... http://public.od.ua/news/2015/07/20/ps-ustanovil-blokpost/# and the location is here https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=29.290267%2C47.873327&z=13&l=map

Hard to get a read onto the purpose with those guys. Is it that they want a piece of the action or do they want to stop the action?

franco wrote:

Khepesh wrote:pravy sektor have set up a checkpoint, or rather taken over a checkpoint, on the border with PMR at the village of Tymkovo in Odessa oblast. "normal" Ukranian border guards and customs officers are said to welcome this and are willing to cooperate. Bizarre, complete anarchy... http://public.od.ua/news/2015/07/20/ps-ustanovil-blokpost/# and the location is here https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=29.290267%2C47.873327&z=13&l=map

Hard to get a read onto the purpose with those guys. Is it that they want a piece of the action or do they want to stop the action?

Piece of the action of course, no one ever stops the action

franco wrote:

Khepesh wrote:pravy sektor have set up a checkpoint, or rather taken over a checkpoint, on the border with PMR at the village of Tymkovo in Odessa oblast. "normal" Ukranian border guards and customs officers are said to welcome this and are willing to cooperate. Bizarre, complete anarchy... http://public.od.ua/news/2015/07/20/ps-ustanovil-blokpost/# and the location is here https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=29.290267%2C47.873327&z=13&l=map

Hard to get a read onto the purpose with those guys. Is it that they want a piece of the action or do they want to stop the action?

Probably money or spoils related, but I might be getting too cynical, they just want to help out as part of their civic action plan.

franco wrote:

Hard to get a read onto the purpose with those guys. Is it that they want a piece of the action or do they want to stop the action?

Impossible to tell as there is no precedent to this that I know of. What other country has an armed gang take over a border crossing and the regular border guards and customs are willing to cooperate, it's madness. But as JohninMK says, it could be they want to show that only pravy sektor can defend Ukraine, but that the state lets them do this.....

Khepesh wrote:Impossible to tell as there is no precedent to this that I know of. What other country has an armed gang take over a border crossing and the regular border guards and customs are willing to cooperate, it's madness Saakashvili.

Something is not kosher in Odessa and it's not RS.

Neutrality wrote:Another video representing the country on the other side of the frontline:

One comment: "sell your soul to the devil for unfulfilled promises !!! "...

That's a very powerful statement.

Neutrality wrote:

Erk wrote:

Except the UA will already know this if it's to the stage of people on forums talking about it.

Don't confuse knowledge and acting upon this knowledge. So now that the NAF made their move what's the VSU going to do? Continue to shell Donetsk? Not going to fly, even the OSCE aren't this level 100-retarded. Telling the world that tne resistance is shelling their own cities is not going to work this time.

But we already know the idiots will say that rebels are shelling each other. These groups may not be retarded, but they are doing as they are told from west and we both know the west will try to spin this as rebels and Russian fault.

Kiev forces open fire at militias amid weapons withdrawal

Gee, what heros Ukraine has got. Pathetic.

sepheronx wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Erk wrote:

Except the UA will already know this if it's to the stage of people on forums talking about it.

Don't confuse knowledge and acting upon this knowledge. So now that the NAF made their move what's the VSU going to do? Continue to shell Donetsk? Not going to fly, even the OSCE aren't this level 100-retarded. Telling the world that tne resistance is shelling their own cities is not going to work this time.

But we already know the idiots will say that rebels are shelling each other. These groups may not be retarded, but they are doing as they are told from west and we both know the west will try to spin this as rebels and Russian fault.

This has more to do with local Ukrainian issues. If UAF does not attack then sheep will soon start to wonder what is the point of it all if army does not reclaim ''undefended'' territory.

NAF has nothing to lose here, only to gain. Like guys said, ukrops are dug in and attacking them would prove costly. That is why this is smart approach. Either ukrops leave the cover and get slaughtered or continue to sit there looking like morons before increasingly angsty population while rest of Ukraine slowly implodes.

And it is definitely not too early to say and I will be first to say it this year: Winter is coming!