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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Flagship Victory
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:34 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:This has more to do with local Ukrainian issues. If UAF does not attack then sheep will soon start to wonder what is the point of it all if army does not reclaim ''undefended'' territory.

    I don't think western Ukrainians even given a d about Donetsk. They do not consider Donetsk their territory. They are just here to kill people for fun. Shocked
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:37 pm

    another boring Minsk meeting coming up tomorrow Sleep

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/contact-group-will-meet-in-minsk-on-july-21-393864.html
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:51 pm

    PMR announce mobilisation of men between 18 and 27 http://russian.rt.com/article/104387 It doesn't mean imminent war, just a precaution I guess.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:53 pm

    0 Maidan soldiers KIA 5 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday.
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    Post  whir Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:59 pm

    Khepesh wrote:PMR announce mobilisation of men between 18 and 27
    It doesn't mean imminent war, just a precaution I guess.
    Tiraspol's response to multinational exercise in Moldova I suppose.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:40 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    But we already know the idiots will say that rebels are shelling each other.
    They are not idiots for saying it. They are liars, but not idiots.

    Now both Kiev and the West can pretend that Kiev is doing nothing wrong and ignore the death and destruction that occurs in Donbass. If Ukraine would admit that they are shelling civilians they would make themselves vulnerable for repercussions. Now that Kiev denies everything, while the West pretends to believe Kiev's word (of course the West knows what is really happening but they pretend to believe Kiev), Kiev can continue shelling Donbass indefinitely. After all, it is only "rebels shelling themselves" there.

    It is an evil thing to do but it is working because there is nobody to stop it.


    Last edited by Karl Haushofer on Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  whir Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:41 pm

    djmixer1x wrote:ATO. Mukachevo. Natshvardiya b "People are examples. Mother. 18+
    Today in the village of Uzhhorod district Kamyanytsya BMW driver stopped on the main road before railway moving on red signal natshvardiyi column, moving from side Perechyn, on a secondary road, not paying attention to the respective signs decided matched BMW prevents them pass and demanded vidyihaty, though could quietly obyihaty car through the passenger window tried to explain that vidyihaty machine can not move for closed natshvardiyi the soldiers pulled him from the car, put on the ground and severely beaten while examples of machines, and also got the driver of the vehicle.

    The situation for the passenger and driver could be worse, but immediately began to gather people and stop the car when natshvardiya noticed that they removed the video, the guy let go, but the people did not allow them to escape and called the police.

    Witnesses claim that at least one soldier was drunk natshvardiyi.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:45 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Kiev forces open fire at militias amid weapons withdrawal

    Gee, what heros Ukraine has got. Pathetic.
    This is a war. Kiev is fighting this war to win while the rebels are "fighting" this war to appease the Kremlin, the West and the OSCE.

    Of course Kiev should be shelling enemy positions if they are able to. And the NAF should be doing the same, but they aren't.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:46 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:This has more to do with local Ukrainian issues. If UAF does not attack then sheep will soon start to wonder what is the point of it all if army does not reclaim ''undefended'' territory.

    I don't think western Ukrainians even given a d about Donetsk. They do not consider Donetsk their territory. They are just here to kill people for fun. Shocked
    They consider the land of Donbass as their but people of Donbass are expendable.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:49 pm

    It looks like any meaningful agreement on anything by the Contact Group in Minsk tomorrow, regardless of signed or not, will only be actioned by Kiev if DNR/LPR do everything in Minsk 2 (as per Kiev interpretation) before Kiev does anything. But I may be wrong Smile

    KIEV, July 20. /TASS/. Reaching an agreement on bilateral withdrawal of weapons under 100mm calibre from the front line in east Ukraine’s Donbas region will depend on local militias’ actions, a Ukraine military spokesman in Kiev said on Monday.

    Oleksandr Motuzyanyk told the 112 Ukraine television news channel: "First of all, it is necessary that the terms of the Minsk deal with regard to complete ceasefire are fulfilled [by militias]. If the truce holds for at least several days, we can talk about further implementation of all Minsk agreements [by Ukrainian side]."

    On July 18, the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR) announced the start of withdrawing tanks and armoured vehicles with a calibre of less than 100mm to a distance of at least three kilometers away from the line of military engagement. The self-defence forces of the Donetsk republic have withdrawn more than 50% of tanks and armored vehicles. Their weaponry remains only to the north of Donetsk and in Debaltseve — the tensest parts of the front line. The Luhansk republic has withdrawn weaponry everywhere along the contact line, excluding the area near the Schastye settlement.

    Withdrawing weapons under 100mm calibre has been discussed in Minsk, Belarus, for a long time, but the sides failed to come to an agreement. The two eastern republics decided to start the pullback unilaterally in the interests of establishing peace.

    On Tuesday, envoys of Moscow, Kiev, the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will gather in the Belarusian capital to continue Contact Group meetings reviewing progress of the ceasefire. Discussions are expected to include four working subgroups. The sides hope to reach an agreement on bilateral withdrawal of weapons with a calibre of less than 100mm.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:53 pm

    A bit better from Bausarin

    MOSCOW, July 20. /TASS/. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have opened fire at the positions of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic militias in Gorlovka at the time when armored vehicles were being withdrawn from there, the Donetsk News Agency reported on Monday. "Fire was opened at the positions near the village of Zaitsevo in northwestern Gorlovka, which have just been abandoned by the people’s militia," the report says.

    Meanwhile, a spokesman for the DPR defense ministry told the agency that "snipers were working and automatic grenade launchers were used" in the Zaitsevo area. The positions of the Kiev-controlled units were "located two kilometers away from the place of armored vehicles withdrawal." DPR defense ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin said on Monday the militia forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic have withdrawn more than 50% of tanks and armored vehicles from the contact line on Donbas.
    "More than 50% of weaponry has been withdrawn. However, this process is rather lengthy, and there are certain places where we are not withdrawing [heavy weaponry] yet, we will see how the situation develops," the Donetsk News Agency quoted Basurin as saying.

    Basurin stressed that lists of withdrawn weapons will be handed to the monitoring mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    On July 18, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics (DPR and LPR) announced the start of withdrawing tanks and armored vehicles of less than 100mm caliber from the contact line to at least 3 kilometers. DPR weaponry remains only to the north of Donetsk and in Deblatsevo - the tensest parts of the contact line. LPR is withdrawing weaponry everywhere along the contact line, excluding the area near the Schastye settlement.

    Withdrawing weaponry of less than 100mm caliber has been discussed in Minsk for a long time, but the sides failed to reach an agreement. DPR and LPR decided to start the withdrawal unilaterally in the interests of establishing peace.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:54 pm

    JohninMK wrote:It looks like any meaningful agreement on anything by the Contact Group in Minsk tomorrow, regardless of signed or not, will only be actioned by Kiev if DNR/LPR do everything in Minsk 2 (as per Kiev interpretation) before Kiev does anything. But I may be wrong Smile

    KIEV, July 20. /TASS/. Reaching an agreement on bilateral withdrawal of weapons under 100mm calibre from the front line in east Ukraine’s Donbas region will depend on local militias’ actions, a Ukraine military spokesman in Kiev said on Monday.

    Oleksandr Motuzyanyk told the 112 Ukraine television news channel: "First of all, it is necessary that the terms of the Minsk deal with regard to complete ceasefire are fulfilled [by militias]. If the truce holds for at least several days, we can talk about further implementation of all Minsk agreements [by Ukrainian side]."

    On July 18, the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR) announced the start of withdrawing tanks and armoured vehicles with a calibre of less than 100mm to a distance of at least three kilometers away from the line of military engagement. The self-defence forces of the Donetsk republic have withdrawn more than 50% of tanks and armored vehicles. Their weaponry remains only to the north of Donetsk and in Debaltseve — the tensest parts of the front line. The Luhansk republic has withdrawn weaponry everywhere along the contact line, excluding the area near the Schastye settlement.

    Withdrawing weapons under 100mm calibre has been discussed in Minsk, Belarus, for a long time, but the sides failed to come to an agreement. The two eastern republics decided to start the pullback unilaterally in the interests of establishing peace.

    On Tuesday, envoys of Moscow, Kiev, the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will gather in the Belarusian capital to continue Contact Group meetings reviewing progress of the ceasefire. Discussions are expected to include four working subgroups. The sides hope to reach an agreement on bilateral withdrawal of weapons with a calibre of less than 100mm.

    Sounds like the rebels will be strong-armed into making more concessions and capitulations. Nothing is demanded from Kiev, everything is demanded from the NAF. Actually it is Kiev making the demands here while Russia and NAF stay silent and likely will do what they are told.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:56 pm

    JohninMK wrote:A bit better from Bausarin

    MOSCOW, July 20. /TASS/. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have opened fire at the positions of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic militias in Gorlovka at the time when armored vehicles were being withdrawn from there, the Donetsk News Agency reported on Monday. "Fire was opened at the positions near the village of Zaitsevo in northwestern Gorlovka, which have just been abandoned by the people’s militia," the report says.

    Meanwhile, a spokesman for the DPR defense ministry told the agency that "snipers were working and automatic grenade launchers were used" in the Zaitsevo area. The positions of the Kiev-controlled units were "located two kilometers away from the place of armored vehicles withdrawal." DPR defense ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin said on Monday the militia forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic have withdrawn more than 50% of tanks and armored vehicles from the contact line on Donbas.
    "More than 50% of weaponry has been withdrawn. However, this process is rather lengthy, and there are certain places where we are not withdrawing [heavy weaponry] yet, we will see how the situation develops," the Donetsk News Agency quoted Basurin as saying.

    Basurin stressed that lists of withdrawn weapons will be handed to the monitoring mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    On July 18, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics (DPR and LPR) announced the start of withdrawing tanks and armored vehicles of less than 100mm caliber from the contact line to at least 3 kilometers. DPR weaponry remains only to the north of Donetsk and in Deblatsevo - the tensest parts of the contact line. LPR is withdrawing weaponry everywhere along the contact line, excluding the area near the Schastye settlement.

    Withdrawing weaponry of less than 100mm caliber has been discussed in Minsk for a long time, but the sides failed to reach an agreement. DPR and LPR decided to start the withdrawal unilaterally in the interests of establishing peace.

    Did Kiev actually promise not to shoot the NAF while the NAF withdraws? This is a war and if you see an enemy combatant you shoot at him. The NAF should take a note.


    Last edited by Karl Haushofer on Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  franco Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:03 pm

    On July 18, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics (DPR and LPR) announced the start of withdrawing tanks and armored vehicles of less than 100mm caliber from the contact line to at least 3 kilometers. DPR weaponry remains only to the north of Donetsk and in Deblatsevo - the tensest parts of the contact line. LPR is withdrawing weaponry everywhere along the contact line, excluding the area near the Schastye settlement.

    For the worriers, how long does it take to move an AFV 3-5 kms?
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:11 pm

    franco wrote:For the worriers, how long does it take to move an AFV 3-5 kms?

    A few hours tops.

    What I worry about is if Donetsk and Lugansk would be demilitarized like what happened with Shirokino. NAF controlled Donbas is very small as it is. If NAF retreats again and again, they be ending up being pushed into Russia. Shocked

    In that case, sure, the civilians will return to normal life, but NAF will have nowhere to go but go into Russia. dunno
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    Post  whir Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:17 pm

    RiaNovosti via Google Translate wrote:Киев считает "пустыми" заявления ополченцев об отводе техники
    Kiev considers "empty" statements militia to challenge technology
    17:44 07/20/2015 (Updated: 17:55 07/20/2015)

    Security officials say that Kiev in favor of the full implementation of the Minsk agreements and concrete actions.

    KIEV, July 20 - RIA Novosti. Ukrainian Defense Ministry said "empty" statements about the withdrawal of armed militias caliber of less than 100 millimeters from the line of contact in the Donbass region and insists on full implementation of the Minsk Agreement.

    The militia of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic on Sunday unilaterally began removal equipment and weapons caliber of less than 100 millimeters from the line of contact. The armed forces of Ukraine have not received the corresponding order. Earlier, in Kiev in the Joint Centre for Monitoring and Coordination of the cease-fire in the Donbass (STSKK) Roman Yurchilo said that the center did not confirm the removal of militia weapons.

    "Demonstrative withdrawal of heavy weapons by terrorists, highly publicized in recent days, amid constant bombardment from artillery, which have long should be disabled, and the use of which is contrary to all agreements, is nothing but a means of masking their true plans and criminal acts" - said in a statement the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

    Security officials say that Kiev in favor of the full implementation of the Minsk agreements and concrete actions.

    "Condemning all manifestations of this kind, the Ukrainian side was in favor of the full and unconditional implementation of the agreements and calls on the Minsk of the Russian Federation and the OSCE to use all available means to achieve this objective. The specific actions and a clear implementation of political decisions and not indicative steps and empty declarations should be the key to peace settlement in the implementation of the agreements Minsk "- believe in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Continue reading.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:18 pm

    Maidan blames NAF for shelling civilians, says Donetsk must be demilitarized like Shirokino and NAF go to Russia so civilians can have normal lives.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/ukrainian-military-claims-separatists-to-blame-for-donetsk-shelling-393871.html
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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:18 pm

    People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.

    Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.
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    Post  Ispan Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:20 pm

    I do concur that the NAF is just pretending to disengage in order to conceal a troop redeployment.

    The thing about forcing the orks out of their trenches and into the open, where they can sounds plausible. If they attack, it can lure them into killing zones under pre-laid fire plans, or whatever it is the technical word.

    That being said, you all talk about Ukranian defensive lines as if they are some sort of near impregnable Maginot line.

    They are most assuredly not, except perhaps, in the arc in the periphery of Donetsk.

    To begin with, the front is hundreds of kilometers long and troops are too thinly spread for any linear defense in strength

    Second, most likely the defense is instead a series of hedgehog positions, clustered around villages and towns, even then, the front is so long that there are long stretches of the line thinly held.

    Third, I know a lot about trench warfare and a little about the German attempts to stablish defensive lives in the Eastern Front. Defensive lines of this length recquire large amounts of manpower and materials, as well as recquiring clever planning, one suitable comparison that I know plenty about is the Spanish Civil War, the Republicans put a lot of effort and wasted a lot of concrete in building extensive fortified lines, but due to poor planning and siting these were easily breached by the Nationalists. Nothing I have seen of Ukranian trenches and fieldworks gives the impression that they are proficient at fortification engineering. Shortages of material, manpower and equipment make me skeptical that they have managed to build an effective defense in depth.

    Fourth, hedgedhog defense is vulnerable to infiltration and in itself is an admission of weakness, but I refer you to "Stand Fast, German defensive doctrine in the Eastern front"


    Fifth, that kind of defense can be effective at making unsupported infantry attacks difficult and costly, but would be certainly breached by a well coordinated attack of artillery and infantry, or more easily, by a mass armored attack.

    It is one of the great mysteries of the war, where are the tanks? I am puzzled of why the orks persist in a reenactment of the Western Front in the Great War and do not use tanks in their attacks, only in small numbers. It is beyond my comprehension that they have been unable or unwilling to commit more than a company of tanks at a single point. It may be sheer incompetence. They haven't shown any ability to coordinate anything larger than a company. It may be they are short on fuel.

    Perhaps, like the Novorussians, they are husbanding their armor formations for a big breakthrough, or counterattack in response to the opponent armored breakthrough.

    I believe is within the Novorussians capabilities to mass armor at one point, make an artillery preparation and make a breakthrough and exploit the success. I doubt the ability of the Ukranian side to redeploy reserves to prevent that breakthrough.

    Seventh, it does not matter how strong are the Ukranian defenses. They aren't and they can be broken. And there is nothing much that can be done once the front is broken, because the front is too long, the forces stretched too thin, the formations lack fuel or vehicles for mobility and are tied to their static positions, and the ukranian command and control, from past experience, is very poor and the command will be likely unable to do anything like counterattacking to seal the
    breach, or even pulling an orderly retreat to a new line of defense. It doesn't seem realistic that there is something substantial behind the crust.

    I do believe the Ukranians can be defeated, and another major defeat can be decisive. What I do not know is if the Novorussians are ready yet for such an offensive, but they should be soon.








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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:20 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.

    Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.

    Therein lies the problem. Now that OSCE is blocking NAF tanks from moving back, only light infantry remain in Donetsk. And that is a very dangerous situation for NAF if Maidan suddenly launches a tank attack on Donetsk, not to mention NAF cannot fire back when Maidan shells Donetsk with artillery.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:25 pm

    Yesterday's edition of Maidan shelling Donetsk, with the approval of OSCE of course. dunno

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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:34 pm

    If I were a Donetsk resident, I wouldn't bother relying on NAF. I'd buy a gun off the black market and become a vigilante, hunting down Maidan soldiers like Batman. cheers
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:41 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.

    Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.

    What is going on in Shiokino? Did osce demand PUkes leave?
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    Post  franco Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:45 pm

    Khepesh wrote:pravy sektor have set up a checkpoint, or rather taken over a checkpoint, on the border with PMR at the village of Tymkovo in Odessa oblast. "normal" Ukranian border guards and customs officers are said to welcome this and are willing to cooperate. Bizarre, complete anarchy... http://public.od.ua/news/2015/07/20/ps-ustanovil-blokpost/# and the location is here https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=29.290267%2C47.873327&z=13&l=map

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    According to Interfax, they only stayed there for 10 minutes. Bizarre indeed.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:58 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.

    Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.

    What is going on in Shiokino? Did osce demand PUkes leave?

    As far as I know, please correct me if im wrong. Unilateral demilitarisation (christ that sounds straight out of the state dept) of the town was agreed, NAF honoured it and pulled out but ukies just strolled right in and took over, completely against the agreement.

    As for the osce, they made some vague comments about it but didnt address the issue at all. Considering this is organised by them, you would think they would force both parties to adhere to the agreements, but sadly thy act much like the eu did when yanuk was toppled.




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