I do concur that the NAF is just pretending to disengage in order to conceal a troop redeployment.
The thing about forcing the orks out of their trenches and into the open, where they can sounds plausible. If they attack, it can lure them into killing zones under pre-laid fire plans, or whatever it is the technical word.
That being said, you all talk about Ukranian defensive lines as if they are some sort of near impregnable Maginot line.
They are most assuredly not, except perhaps, in the arc in the periphery of Donetsk.
To begin with, the front is hundreds of kilometers long and troops are too thinly spread for any linear defense in strength
Second, most likely the defense is instead a series of hedgehog positions, clustered around villages and towns, even then, the front is so long that there are long stretches of the line thinly held.
Third, I know a lot about trench warfare and a little about the German attempts to stablish defensive lives in the Eastern Front. Defensive lines of this length recquire large amounts of manpower and materials, as well as recquiring clever planning, one suitable comparison that I know plenty about is the Spanish Civil War, the Republicans put a lot of effort and wasted a lot of concrete in building extensive fortified lines, but due to poor planning and siting these were easily breached by the Nationalists. Nothing I have seen of Ukranian trenches and fieldworks gives the impression that they are proficient at fortification engineering. Shortages of material, manpower and equipment make me skeptical that they have managed to build an effective defense in depth.
Fourth, hedgedhog defense is vulnerable to infiltration and in itself is an admission of weakness, but I refer you to "Stand Fast, German defensive doctrine in the Eastern front"
Fifth, that kind of defense can be effective at making unsupported infantry attacks difficult and costly, but would be certainly breached by a well coordinated attack of artillery and infantry, or more easily, by a mass armored attack.
It is one of the great mysteries of the war, where are the tanks? I am puzzled of why the orks persist in a reenactment of the Western Front in the Great War and do not use tanks in their attacks, only in small numbers. It is beyond my comprehension that they have been unable or unwilling to commit more than a company of tanks at a single point. It may be sheer incompetence. They haven't shown any ability to coordinate anything larger than a company. It may be they are short on fuel.
Perhaps, like the Novorussians, they are husbanding their armor formations for a big breakthrough, or counterattack in response to the opponent armored breakthrough.
I believe is within the Novorussians capabilities to mass armor at one point, make an artillery preparation and make a breakthrough and exploit the success. I doubt the ability of the Ukranian side to redeploy reserves to prevent that breakthrough.
Seventh, it does not matter how strong are the Ukranian defenses. They aren't and they can be broken. And there is nothing much that can be done once the front is broken, because the front is too long, the forces stretched too thin, the formations lack fuel or vehicles for mobility and are tied to their static positions, and the ukranian command and control, from past experience, is very poor and the command will be likely unable to do anything like counterattacking to seal the
breach, or even pulling an orderly retreat to a new line of defense. It doesn't seem realistic that there is something substantial behind the crust.
I do believe the Ukranians can be defeated, and another major defeat can be decisive. What I do not know is if the Novorussians are ready yet for such an offensive, but they should be soon.