The Situation in the Ukraine. #14

Flagship Victory wrote:At this point,  it is clear that Ukraine plans to invade Transnistria. Keep an eye out for US movement. If US troops including PAC-3 air defense deploys to Odessa, then such an invasion would be imminent. The US would bet on Russia not interfering because Russia would not attack US air defense teams in Odessa.

Monarchist wrote:

flamming_python wrote:You people are completely insane

The majority of the economical elite of Russia (state company CEOs, oligarchs, governers/republic heads, top economic officials, etc...) are ethnic Russians.

Yeah sure there are plenty of minorities too; Alekperov, Vekselberg, Abramovich, Ilyumzhinov, Gref, Naibullina, Usmanov, Friedman, Agalarov, Rotenberg, Kerimov, Shaimiev, Pogosyan, Minnikhanov, Aven, Milner, Ismailov, Khan, Yakobshvilli, Dürr, Akhmedov, Makhmudov, Magomedov, Nisanov, Iliev, Karapetyan, Baysarov, Chagaev, etc... (not counting Ukrainians or Belarussians here, mind)

But they are more than outnumbered by Russians - Kiriyenko, Yakunin, Luzhkov/Baturina, Sechin, Chubais, Kudrin, Volozh, Grishin, Sobyanin, Savelyev, Potanin, Doronin, Prokhorov, Bogdanov, Deripaska, Filatov, Fedun, Matvienko, Chemezov, Timchenko, Mikhelson, Frolov, Abramov, Mikheev, Melnichenko, Narishkin, Lisin, Mordashov, Khristenko, Dmitriev, Fyodorov, Kogogin, Muravyov, Galitsky, Guryev, Isaikin, Komarov, Trotsenko, Obnosov, Plastinin, Rakhmanov, Rybolovlev, etc...
Albeit a great many of these ethnic Russians are actually from ex-Soviet republics.

Russia is a very multi-ethnic country; and to boot - many of its current oligarchs and elite were actually from not from Russia, but other Soviet republics who came to Russia in the 90s to make their fortunes and power as their own countries were dirt-poor and had no prospects; thus among the elite you'll find even more diversity than you'd expect otherwise.

That goes for the Jews too, not all of them are actually from Russia either but all of them are counted as Jews, therefore making it appear that there are more Russian Jews in the Russian elite than there actually are.
Friedman, Khan & Vekselberg are all from the Ukraine, Yakobshvilli is from Georgia, Ismailov & Nisanov are from Azerbaijan and so on.

Yes, I'm insane and most likely I will be labeled a racist, nazi or whatever suits people.
50% of russian oligarchs are jewish yet the make up 0,3 % of the population in Russia today. http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-Features/At-Putins-side-an-army-of-Jewish-billionaires
"have made much of the fact that of the seven oligarchs who controlled 50% of Russia's economy during the 1990s, six were Jewish: Berezovsky, Vladimir Guzinsky, Alexander Smolensky, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Mikhail Friedman and Valery Malkin."

"Like most Russian oligarchs, Vekselberg is of Jewish origin - he has a Jewish father, though he doesn't regard himself as Jewish."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jul/02/russia.lukeharding1


Chubais is not russian and a russophobe, I'm not going to bother posting his comments on Dostoevsky and russians in general.
Russia is a country where russians make up over 80% of the population, they are the absolute majority, the second highest ethnicity are tatars that make up 3,7% of the population! So about Russia being multi ethnic yes of course because it supresses russians in their own homeland while ethnic russians in bordering countries are being treated as third class citizens. But also inside Russia.
Just have a look at how "well" represented russians are being in the Tatarstan government.

2SPOOKY4U wrote:

whir wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:At this point,  it is clear that Ukraine plans to invade Transnistria. Keep an eye out for US movement. If US troops including PAC-3 air defense deploys to Odessa, then such an invasion would be imminent. The US would bet on Russia not interfering because Russia would not attack US air defense teams in Odessa.

A meat shield, really? If Ukraine decides to repeat the 2008 scenario they're for a thought ride.

UAF have been touring S-300 units around Odessa for quite some time, they don't need more AD assets, they just need to be able to operate what they have even if it's old.

Zivo wrote:Good god man, that's horrible.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Zivo wrote:Good god man, that's horrible.

So why did you quote it?

Just have a look at how "well" represented russians are being in the Tatarstan government.

They do have their own ethnic mafias in various republics; due to the 90s when everyone was grabbing what they can, various families and clans found themselves into power.
But in Tatarstan you have no repressions of Russians whatsoever, so why should it be any concern of mine? The government there at the very least is doing a good job developing the region.

The Donbass people made a mistake of aligning themselves with Russia, since Russia is so hated in the West and Russia is too weak to help them in any way.

People of Donbass are in every aspect Russians. They have nothing to do with Ukrainians from Galicia since centuries - eastern and southeastern Ukraine are former Crimean Tatar territories colonized by Russian settlers in 18th century while Western Ukraine was a part of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth first and then a part of Austria and was linguistically distinct from the rest of East Slavs since 15-16th century.

You say that Russia is not weak, but yet you say that Russia cannot help Donbass people due to outside pressure (diplomatic consequences). This makes Russia weak imo.

The way I see it this war will not end in years. It will be a low level war with the Kiev junta shelling Novorossiya and Novorossiya - due to diplomatic reasons - not being able to counter. The Kiev junta will make occasional pushes (that will likely be repelled by the NAF) but the NAF will not be allowed to defeat Kiev militarily because the diplomatic costs would be too great for Russia.

So we are stuck here with Kiev shelling Novorossiyans cities and villages daily. This will carry on for years until the whole region is ruined and depopulated. Who would want to live there anyway?

There are two clans inside the Kremlin. The nationalists/patriots and the pro-Western oligarchs. Putin is somewhere in the middle. The nationalists would like to help and free Novorossiya, but the pro-Western/oligarchic clan is preventing this because they would lose their money and property in the West. So far Russia has not been able to decisively back Novorossiya because of this.

BTW, I have many times wondered why the ethnic Russians are minority in the economic elite of Russia? It seems that most of them are Jews, Azeris, Armenians, Tatars or some other ethnic minotiries.

Not that it really matters in any case; I suppose to you I'd be a traitor and a Jew but clearly you have a lot to learn about Russia and just what it is that gives this country its resilience and unity.

The US thinks that Russia would not go to war with the US and therefore Ukraine would be able to invade Transnistria without having to fight Russian forces other than the 1,000 or so Russian troops in Transnistria.

Podrobnosti via Google Translate wrote:Саакашвили анонсировал масштабные чистки в Одесской области
Saakashvili announced a massive purge in the Odessa region
May 30, 2015 17:42 Author: Igor Shevchuk,

The governor of the Odessa oblastiMihail Saakashvili promises complete renewal of power in the region by attracting young people to open competitions for all positions.

"I ask the residents of Odessa region to give me a chance to start conversion here. The first thing that they see the residents of Odessa, is that the new people in power. And recruit new people to be honest. We collect the local people ... Second, we begin to tightly control how the budget is spent. There's many holes and they need to patch, "- Saakashvili said in Odessa.

He added that the majority of high-ranking officials of Odessa region nor retained their posts.

Also, Saakashvili promised to fight corruption, especially at customs. "I have the mandate of the president on this," - he said.

In addition, according to Saakashvili, he familiarized himself with the situation in the province of Odessa region, and believes that the first priority for the regions is a repair of roads.

"There's a terrible road. I have traveled on these roads. The roads there are bad because for decades there sneaked money on these roads. The infrastructure there is poor. And of course, decades of devastation can not be overcome in the past month - two. But I think that soon people will feel difference ", - said the head of State Administration.

Regarding the fight against separatist sentiment in the region, Saakashvili said that the primary task - is the attention to people. "When people feel that the state takes care of them, these feelings go away by themselves," - he said.

As reported, Poroshenko submitted Saakashvili Odessa in 4 languages ​​. After this, Poroshenko gave Saakashvili a year to change everything in Odessa. Continue reading.

New York Times wrote:Ukrainian Migrants Fleeing Conflict Get a Cool Reception in Europe
By RICK LYMANMAY 30, 2015

WARSAW — Volodymyr Zelenyuk knew it was time to bolt when the pro-Russian separatists came to the carwash he owned in the eastern Ukrainian coal town of Antratsyt and demanded his help making and repairing weapons.

“Either you help them, or you die,” Mr. Zelenyuk, 28, said.

So he grabbed his wife, their passports, two backpacks and a credit card and fled across the nearby border into Russia, beginning a long trek to Crimea, Kiev and, finally, four months ago, to the Polish border where they begged for asylum.

“I don’t know what I am going to do if I am refused,” he said. “But I can’t be too optimistic.”

Since the conflict that erupted early last year in Ukraine, the flow of immigrants and asylum seekers from there into Poland and other European nations has steadily increased. But the countries have been wary about welcoming them too warmly.

Poland, Germany, Italy and other favored destinations for Ukrainian asylum-seekers have overwhelmingly rejected their applications or delayed processing them. The nations, which are loath to open their borders to what could be yet another torrent of job-hungry immigrants, point to vast stretches of western Ukraine that the separatist conflict has not yet touched. Continue reading.

BBC wrote:Ukraine crisis: The town where war still rages on - BBC News

Tatzhit Mihailovich wrote:Odessa: Nationalists attack office of "Kador" construction firm, fight security while police look on

The Guardian wrote:Russian aircraft head off US warship in Black Sea, news agency says
Reuters in Moscow Saturday 30 May 2015 17.41 BST

According to Russia’s state news agency a US destroyer was moving along the edge of territorial waters in yet another encounter with western militaries

Russian military aircraft were scrambled to head off a US warship that was acting “aggressively” in the Black Sea, the state news agency RIA reported on Saturday, citing an anonymous source in Russia’s armed forces in Crimea.

The source was quoted as saying that the US destroyer Ross was moving along the edge of Russia’s territorial waters and heading in their direction.

“The crew of the ship acted provocatively and aggressively, which concerned the operators of monitoring stations and ships of the Black Sea Fleet,” RIA quoted the source as saying.

“Su-24 attack aircraft demonstrated to the American crew readiness to harshly prevent a violation of the frontier and to defend the interests of the country.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry was not immediately available to comment on the report. Continue reading.

Flagship Victory wrote:

whir wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:At this point,  it is clear that Ukraine plans to invade Transnistria. Keep an eye out for US movement. If US troops including PAC-3 air defense deploys to Odessa, then such an invasion would be imminent. The US would bet on Russia not interfering because Russia would not attack US air defense teams in Odessa.

A meat shield, really? If Ukraine decides to repeat the 2008 scenario they're for a thought ride.

UAF have been touring S-300 units around Odessa for quite some time, they don't need more AD assets, they just need to be able to operate what they have even if it's old.

US troops are already deployed in Ukraine. If US air defense batteries deploy to Odessa, then they can deter Russian jets based in Sevastopol from launching air strikes on Ukrainian troops in Odessa. The US thinking is that, Russia would not get involved if Ukraine invades Transnistria because by doing so Russian jets would have to target US PAC-3 batteries in Odessa and that would mean a shooting war between Russia and the US. The US thinks that Russia would not go to war with the US and therefore Ukraine would be able to invade Transnistria without having to fight Russian forces other than the 1,000 or so Russian troops in Transnistria.

Regular wrote:
Sheesh both sides are so full of shit. It seems there is bigger war in PR not in the fields

Neutrality wrote:http://lenta.ru/news/2015/05/31/soldiers/

DNR command reports that black skinned mercenaries have been spotted in parts controlled by Kiev regime. There's also reports of mercenaries from USA, Poland, Georgia and apparently a regiment of Israeli soldiers with UCAVs. I have doubts about that last one though. If this is true then we're talking about some serious stuff here. These countries providing soldiers of fortune have no idea what they are getting into. They still think this war is going to be a walk in the park like fighting farmers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Moscow Times wrote:Nothing 'Hybrid' About Russia's War in Ukraine
By Ruslan PukhovMay. 27 2015 00:00 Last edited 20:10

Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine over the past year gave rise in the West to a widespread theory about some kind of "hybrid war," an innovative form of military intervention that Moscow created specifically for this crisis. However, upon closer inspection, the term hybrid war is more a propaganda tool than hard fact and any attempt to fully define it strips the idea of any novelty.

One Western attempt at defining the term states that hybrid war is a combination of overt and covert military actions, provocations and diversions in conjunction with denial of involvement, significantly complicating any full-scale response to those actions.

A more extensive definition of hybrid war appears in the editor's introduction to "The Military Balance 2015" published by The International Institute for Strategic Studies. It describes hybrid war as "the use of military and non-military tools in an integrated campaign designed to achieve surprise, seize the initiative and gain psychological as well as physical advantages utilizing diplomatic means; sophisticated and rapid information, electronic and cyber operations; covert and occasionally overt military and intelligence action; and economic pressure."

It also points out that during the Crimean operations in February-March 2014 "Russian forces demonstrated integrated use of rapid deployment, electronic warfare, information operations (IO), locally based naval infantry, airborne assault and special-forces capabilities, as well as wider use of cyberspace and strategic communications. The latter was used to shape a multifaceted and overall effective information campaign targeted as much at domestic as foreign audiences."

In eastern Ukraine, Moscow demonstrated the ability to quickly create "pressure groups" composed of "elements of the local population" but that are managed and supported from outside, and that such a tactic can be used to defend ethnic minorities.

In this regard, the document stated that NATO considers hybrid warfare a serious challenge because it takes place in a "gray zone" of the alliance's obligations and could lead to a split between its members. Continue reading.

Pravda UA via Google Translate wrote:Боевики заявили, что не будут платить шахтерам - денег нет
The militants have declared that they will not pay the miners - there is no money
Sunday, May 31, 2015, 14:19

The leaders of "DNI" declared the lack of funds for repayment of debt to pay salaries to miners SE "Donbassantratsit" Krasny Luch in Luhansk region.

The press-secretary of the AP on the ATO Alexander Motuzyanik.

"Donbassantratsit" was captured by militants in 2014.

"The company employs 4,000 workers, but now they would be fired. This confirms once again the failure of the militants to do something else other than robbery and looting in the occupied territories," - said Motuzyanik.

Ukrainian Truth Continue reading.

KP.ru via Google Translate wrote:СМИ: Американец спас девушку от украинских солдат и перешел на сторону ополченцев
Media: An American Woman rescued from Ukrainian soldiers defected to the militia
Anastasia Novikova(13:07)

This is a special forces, who was sent to fight in the Donbass as an instructor

American commando Russell Mohsen, who was sent to fight in the Donbass as an instructor, went over to the militias. The young man confessed that he could not bear to see how Ukrainian soldiers mocking the locals.

- May 27 Russell killed the Ukrainian army officer who tried to rape Anastasia Gavrilenko, and disappeared in the direction of the front - told Ukrainian media .

Russell himself later admitted that it was not difficult to get away from the location, despite the fact that it was a girl.
Recall, Republican Senator John McCain and his supporters, lawmakers are trying on their own to achieve the supply of lethal weapons Kiev bypassing the American president.

Accusing anyone who tries to solve the conflict by peaceful means Ukrainian, indulging in Russia, the politician has promised to prepare a draft law on the supply of arms to Georgia. Neither McCain nor other senators did not answer how far they intend to go. Continue reading.

KP.ru via Google Translate wrote:СМИ: Американец спас девушку от украинских солдат и перешел на сторону ополченцев
Media: An American Woman rescued from Ukrainian soldiers defected to the militia
Anastasia Novikova(13:07)

This is a special forces, who was sent to fight in the Donbass as an instructor

American commando Russell Mohsen, who was sent to fight in the Donbass as an instructor, went over to the militias. The young man confessed that he could not bear to see how Ukrainian soldiers mocking the locals.

- May 27 Russell killed the Ukrainian army officer who tried to rape Anastasia Gavrilenko, and disappeared in the direction of the front - told Ukrainian media .

Russell himself later admitted that it was not difficult to get away from the location, despite the fact that it was a girl.
Recall, Republican Senator John McCain and his supporters, lawmakers are trying on their own to achieve the supply of lethal weapons Kiev bypassing the American president.

Accusing anyone who tries to solve the conflict by peaceful means Ukrainian, indulging in Russia, the politician has promised to prepare a draft law on the supply of arms to Georgia. Neither McCain nor other senators did not answer how far they intend to go. Continue reading.

Khepesh wrote:There is another serious fight at the moment in southern Donetsk with ukrops attacking Trudovskaya [Petrovsky district] out of Marinka. Like around the airport there is some sort of activity nearly every day and occasionaly more heavier fighting. I see the Ukrops attacks out of Marinka as perhaps the more serious and think there is a plan to make attacks there seem normal and not to cause a serious reaction from VSN. I still think the attack in January was a test to see what would happen during a serious assault, tho of course ukrops would have liked success. We will keep hearing about these attacks and become bored, VSN command will not become bored of course, but as the attacks become "normal", then reaction times to a sudden serious attack could be efected. A major attack could initially look like the "normal" daily occurance, but the attack is pressed, and pressed, then when it is realised this is a major attack, it may be too late to supress it and maintain the front. These attacks are not simply like ukrops using artillery into Gorlovka, but proper ground attacks, and it is difficult to see what purpose these small scale attacks serve if not as a precursor to major attack into southern Donetsk, that will in fact be a diversion for a major attack in the north that will itself be a diversion for the expected  real major attack in the south on the Volnovakha front. Confused? that's the idea.

Khepesh wrote:There is another serious fight at the moment in southern Donetsk with ukrops attacking Trudovskaya [Petrovsky district] out of Marinka. Like around the airport there is some sort of activity nearly every day and occasionaly more heavier fighting. I see the Ukrops attacks out of Marinka as perhaps the more serious and think there is a plan to make attacks there seem normal and not to cause a serious reaction from VSN. I still think the attack in January was a test to see what would happen during a serious assault, tho of course ukrops would have liked success. We will keep hearing about these attacks and become bored, VSN command will not become bored of course, but as the attacks become "normal", then reaction times to a sudden serious attack could be efected. A major attack could initially look like the "normal" daily occurance, but the attack is pressed, and pressed, then when it is realised this is a major attack, it may be too late to supress it and maintain the front. These attacks are not simply like ukrops using artillery into Gorlovka, but proper ground attacks, and it is difficult to see what purpose these small scale attacks serve if not as a precursor to major attack into southern Donetsk, that will in fact be a diversion for a major attack in the north that will itself be a diversion for the expected  real major attack in the south on the Volnovakha front. Confused? that's the idea.

Khepesh wrote:There is another serious fight at the moment in southern Donetsk with ukrops attacking Trudovskaya [Petrovsky district] out of Marinka. Like around the airport there is some sort of activity nearly every day and occasionaly more heavier fighting. I see the Ukrops attacks out of Marinka as perhaps the more serious and think there is a plan to make attacks there seem normal and not to cause a serious reaction from VSN. I still think the attack in January was a test to see what would happen during a serious assault, tho of course ukrops would have liked success. We will keep hearing about these attacks and become bored, VSN command will not become bored of course, but as the attacks become "normal", then reaction times to a sudden serious attack could be efected. A major attack could initially look like the "normal" daily occurance, but the attack is pressed, and pressed, then when it is realised this is a major attack, it may be too late to supress it and maintain the front. These attacks are not simply like ukrops using artillery into Gorlovka, but proper ground attacks, and it is difficult to see what purpose these small scale attacks serve if not as a precursor to major attack into southern Donetsk, that will in fact be a diversion for a major attack in the north that will itself be a diversion for the expected  real major attack in the south on the Volnovakha front. Confused? that's the idea.

Neutrality wrote:Asking again. Is there any confirmation on that American instructor defecting to the DNR?

Neutrality wrote:Asking again. Is there any confirmation on that American instructor defecting to the DNR?