Abkhazia - S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

Vann7 wrote:Interesting documentary about abkhazia..



The country is truly a tourist place and amazing nature and lakes.  it will be a fantastic zone to develop and modern resorts and continuation of
Sochi for Eco-Tourism.

Firebird wrote:
Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

TheGeorgian wrote:

Firebird wrote:
Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

TheGeorgian wrote:

Firebird wrote:
Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
But much more they are not European Unionists so since Georgia leadership decided to take sides.....

TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

TheGeorgian wrote:2014-06-27

Hannibal Barca wrote:
But much more they are not European Unionists so since Georgia leadership decided to take sides.....

You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions. EU has absolutly nothing to do with us having fought wars against eachother. If the Abkhazians were accepted independent and offered to join EU, most of them people would hope for nothing better than that. Just because of the "better prospect".

and also the decision was made by the Georgian people, not some goverment. If that decision was inspired by false promisses, illusions or whatsoever is a different question. But it's the people's choice and this government simply continues that policy. So far Russia has understood that not every step taken by Georgia that has just remotely something to do with EU process, like the AA, is a bad thing and it's good to see that the other side also shows reason. For us it is dangerous to be solely dependet on Russian market and it is less a threat to have a pro-EU Georgia with neutral or good relations with Kremlin than "loosing" Ukraine.

Viktor wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

You have to understand that EU has nothing in common with better living standards. Just the opposite.

You have nothing to hope for.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
OK so you play the West card. Accept the risks, the gains and the loses as a man and stop crying like a b-word !
You can't have it both ways in life that's for sure.

TheGeorgian wrote:

Viktor wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

You have to understand that EU has nothing in common with better living standards. Just the opposite.

You have nothing to hope for.

You misunderstand me. I know what it would mean for Georgia. That's why I don't wish it to go futher but profitable relations with EU solely. The majority of the people however have hopes because when they see how people live like in Germany for isntance, Europe seems pretty sound.
But it is wrong to say EU has nothing in common with better living conditions ! it certainly has. Like I know how much better life here is. At least on the matter of having more chances to make a man out of yourself then over there. I would have never been able to achieve the same in Tbilisi for instance. However it would be foolishly naive to assume EU membership would do the same to poor little Georgia.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
OK so you play the West card. Accept the risks, the gains and the loses as a man and stop crying like a b-word !
You can't have it both ways in life that's for sure.

.... leave the diplomacy to us  

TheGeorgian wrote:

Firebird wrote:
Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
EU says come with me else I will destroy you so you pick sides. That's all.

Qatar is richest than Europe ever was why you don't go ally with them?

Edit: Of course you can stay neutral and investment oriented

but you are too short sighted and too corrupted and too backward to go this way

what you see in Asia is the future

combining London with Moscow is simply retarded.

But anyway, I much like Georgia signing west puppetship

since I much prefer conquest and slaughter over signs and treaties

, probably it's just me,
but this Putin guy brakes my fun for the moment anyway.

ITAR-TASS wrote:South Ossetia suspends easy rules of crossing border with Georgia for three days
World May 05, 12:49 UTC+3

The measure is expected to enhance public security during celebrations on the occasion of the V-Day’s 70th anniversary, the press office of South Ossetia’s State Security Committee said

TSKHINVAL, May 5. /TASS/. South Ossetia on May 8-10 will suspend the operation of checkpoints on the border with Georgia that let locals travel either way according to simpler rules, the press office of South Ossetia’s State Security Committee has said. The measure is expected to enhance public security during celebrations on the occasion of the V-Day’s 70th anniversary, the State Security Committee said, adding that the routine border crossing procedures would resume as of May 11. Continue reading

SturmGuard wrote:Pardon my ignorance, but what went so wrong in the relations between Abkhaz, Ossetian and Georgian people to make the former side with Russia (why weren't they affected by narrative of Russian conqueror overlords that somehow spread elsewhere)?

I always somehow felt bad for Georgians and Armenians, seeing their truly long presence in history since antiquity and subjugation to foreign powers during long periods.

SturmGuard wrote:Yeah, the borders drawn by Bolsheviks in Caucasus are horrible, especially taking into account Ossetia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Couldn't Russia have acted more decisively and force a peaceful resolution of those conflicts? I mean, wars and crisis in immediate neighbourhood are never a good thing in my opinion. Or  was Russia itself in so much trouble and without power and capability to influence anything?

Thank you for your responses.

TheGeorgian wrote:When the Russian Federation is your physical enemy threatening your very existence and you're not very keen to be subjugated in the same manner you were for decades and centuries allready, no matter if as whole or merely politicaly and economicaly, you seek to approach the opposing force.

TheGeorgian wrote:It's a natural reaction because you fear for your life and want to survive, in one piece. I don't get why there isn't even some basic logical understanding to such consequences.

TheGeorgian wrote:Everything is like clouded, no room given for reasoning. We tried to approach Russia a million times with peaceful solutions. We literaly tried everything. What does Russia do ? pushes the fence a few kilometers further into uncotensted territory proper. Please people, that is not a solution. If the central highway is reached, it will mean war. Because no matter how weak we are, nobody will just sit idly and watch it's country being literaly split ahalf. We had our big mistake, called Saakashvili .... and no matter what the Russians did to provoke it or not, he started the August War. But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

TheGeorgian wrote:Georgia does not present a threat to Russia, not in the next 5 years, not in the next 20 years. There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid. Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

flamming_python wrote:I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Speaking very bluntly, Russia does not need these micro-states, it doesn't know what to do with them. It's more or less an accident that this all occurred at all, Russia was content with the frozen conflict and not recognizing them at all; hoping to entice Georgia to a political solution that would give Russia leverage and influence in the new Georgia.

I am the first to admit that Russia's policies towards Georgia have been rather clubfooted over the years; throwing Georgian migrants out of Russia over political disagreements, increasing ties with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia as 'revenge' for the West recognizing Kosovo, and so on.

At the same time though, the Georgian war was not its fault, and neither are these separatist conflicts in the first place. Saakashvilli and Gamsakhurdia respectively, did more than anyone else in their time, to catapult uneasy situations into full-scale wars.

I think what Georgia needs to do now is start by publicly apologizing to S. Ossetia for the recent war, and try to move towards reconciliation with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia over the events of 1991-1993 too. Which were far from one-sided, I know, but if Georgia wants to be the 'bigger brother' to these peoples then it should do so by being the bigger man and taking the first step. To do this it has to open contacts with the unrecognized leaderships of these republics.

I also do not think that Russia will try to prevent this. It didn't try to prevent this before. I don't think it will do so now; if anything it will look upon it as an opportunity to move Georgia away from NATO and secure its southern flank, Georgia should capitalize on this.

Joining NATO at this time of increasing Russia-NATO tensions would be a huge mistake.

Tensions would rack-up twice more over what they are now, and we would move back to where the Cold War was in the 50s; with huge arsenals of armour and cruise missiles near the borders, walls, constant airspace violations, mutual accusations, large-scale military exercises and possibly the occasional incident. Truth be told, it can turn out even worse than that this time 'round.
Under such conditions Russia will move to immediately stop any attempts of Georgia (by now a NATO member and thus NATO territory) to negotiate or do anything with Abkhazia or S.Ossetia, they will be fortified with large amounts of Russian troops, Georgia will be fortified with NATO troops and that will be that - new Berlin wall.

So there it is. It might not be fair or whatever else but that's international politics. Georgia has a good chance of getting what it wants, but it has to play it smart and manuever carefully. Joining NATO will be an immediate game-over as far as any unification with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia goes.

I am pretty sure that Saaka never tried to talk with the rebel leaderships, at least not in any way other than 'join us or else'

Shevardnadze might have, he seemed like a very level-headed, pragmatic leader. But still, anything would have happened in secret, as officially, there are and were never any 'open' contacts with the Abkhazian and S.Ossetia leaderships, and this is a bad sign.

I am not convinced that enough effort was put into this. I haven't heard of any trilateral meetings in a Georgia-S.Ossetia-Russia format for example; not in Saaka's time, not in Shevardnadze.
I don't see why Russia would have blocked something like this, when we see for example that meetings in the format of Moldova-Pridnestrovie-Russia did take place in Moscow, and were in fact actively encouraged by Medvedev, albeit they didn't ultimately lead anywhere at the time.

Medvedev in fact hinted at such a solution (confederation), in at least 1 interview after the war, when talking about options that Georgia could have aimed for in preference to war.

As for after the war; I don't know what's been happening; I haven't seen any information about any Georgian efforts to establish dialogue with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia albeit it's logical that it might be trying to do so as now the military option is off the table for sure and this is the only chance left.
Russia might very well be paranoid and so on now, but under the conditions where Georgia doesn't even have formal contacts with Russia right now, it's hard to talk about any sort of reconciliation process. Georgia should focus some effort on re-establishing ties, pouring some cold water on NATO for the time being, and showing that it is ready for dialogue with Moscow.
I think once that's done, it will be possible for Georgia to move forward with contacting Abkhazia/S.Ossetia.