The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

kvs wrote:

According to Shoigu there are 59,300 Ukrian forces on the LOS.    

Previous talk was about 125,000.   It now looks like propaganda huffing and puffing.   The morale of the Ukr army is in the toilet and
all they have are Nazi militants which engage in terrorism.    

My take is the 59,000 are the assault units to break through the lines. The rest of the force is needed to hold the line and pin down the NAF units. Rule of thumb is you need at least a 3 to 1 force advantage to breakthrough defensive lines. Since the planned action apparently call for 2 simultaneous assault and the NAF have 10 units of 3,000 or so covering the front. In those two areas the UAF would have a 10 to 1 advantage and slice through easily to split the Donbas into 3 parts and reach the Russian borders.

NOTE: an interesting read of the strategy of Putin by this Russian analyst. Long but interesting.

Point of no return passed: Putin set his master plan for Ukraine in motion

https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/24131-tochka-nevozvrata-projdena-putin-privel-v-dejstvie-svoj-glavnyj-plan-po-ukraine.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

bitcointrader70 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:Man Putin has chewed Naryshkin out, putin asked YES or NO, when he said Yes, Putin asked YES WHAT, Naryshkin says recognize DNR and LNR as Russia

Putin laughs,  that's not what we are talking about, we are talking of recognizing LDNR as INDEPENDENT republics

Naryshkin: Yes yes yes

Hahahaha

Theres no spin asshat, like atlasclown, I already said WELCOME DONETSK AND LUHANSK albeit I said welcome to Russia so Mr. Putin would have chewed me out the same as Naryshkin 

But it is what it is

What is funny is all the western trolls glued to every word and comment made by the great leader

It doesn’t matter if it’s independent or a part of Russia. To Europe and America it is all the same.

Part of Russia or an independent puppet state of Russia is the same thing. Welcome to sanctionville and a hardened NATO.

Probably no NS2.

Putin played this so badly honestly an all out invasion is not looking like a bad decision at this point. But he waited until ukrops have javelins and now Russian loss of life will be a lot higher.

Yeah, hope this restart of the Ukrainian civil war is another fake-out, like the invasion when they started moving into firing positions, and the recognition of the DNR/LNR when Putin postponed the issue at the press conference with Scholz

As a fake-out it could work quite well. Imagine the phone lines are buzzing at the moment before Putin makes his 'final decision'.

As a real solution though it's just shit. Did anyone ask the people of the Donbass whether they're ready for liberating the rest of their administrative territory and for total war, without Russian troops helping?
Are people in the rest of the Ukraine going to support them or are they brainwashed already (you know the answer to that)

kvs wrote:
Previous talk was about 125,000.   It now looks like propaganda huffing and puffing.  

Yes and no.
Remind you, that on the real peak, they were citing numbers around 200k, adding that they have a 70k reserve at disposal, and "970k mobilization potential".
That was an obvious propaganda fake, as they don't have enough jars for salo in the whole Ukropistan
In real, they probably managed to mass about 100k troops a month ago, but the situation in the north forced them to relocate part of them to cover the Belarussian direction.
So we face facts as follows: 60k forces are obviously not enough to break the neck of the two LNR and DNR mechanized corpses numbered at about 35k.
Even without Russian direct intervention ...

ATLASCUB wrote:

par far wrote:

Why don't you go join them?

Already settled with a female partner.

You've certainly gotten a turn for the worse. Visiting the Saker daily for analysis will do that to your brain I suppose. You have the power within you to quit that drug. I'm rooting for you.

Reading your posts, it is your brain that has taken a turn for the worse.

Putin is going to make a televised address to the nation later today.

Time currently not known, if anyone is aware - please share. My assumption is 9-10 PM Moscow time.

nero wrote:Putin is going to make a televised address to the nation later today.

Time currently not known, if anyone is aware - please share. My assumption is 9-10 PM Moscow time.

You are right, 21 is the hour that comes up.

Before dear leader makes the monumental, courageous, out of this world, history in the making, epochal decision, rivaling the tales of greats like Hercules in Greek Methology, before dear leader decides whether or not to recognize the Donbass republics, a plot of land of which could fit in your index finger (following his Georgia playbook, 7-8 years after 2014), would anyone wish to make their last minute predictions on how the events will flow afterwards?

Will the Ukrops be given the order to invade, as caucus belli has been given by Russia for Western press cover?

Will it be Russia that takes the initiative to remove the Ukrops from the Donbass and push the lines further West?

Sanctions now all but certain... how comprehensive will sanctions be? Will NS2 die, or will it persevere? Is a run on the ruble coming? Will the sanctions be coming from just the U.S/UK or the EU, and other U.S protectorates as well?

Will the escalation reach a point where Russia invades, past the Donbass (working definitions of which are of no consequence) and somehow takes over Kiev? (as I've been a proponent off?)

Will the meeting on Feb 24th take place at all?

How do you see the events flowing to the river from now on? All past BS will be excused, no need to tag along post history consistency. Be frank. And don't use content from your favorite analyst grifter. Use your damn brain for once.

franco wrote:

kvs wrote:

According to Shoigu there are 59,300 Ukrian forces on the LOS.    

Previous talk was about 125,000.   It now looks like propaganda huffing and puffing.   The morale of the Ukr army is in the toilet and
all they have are Nazi militants which engage in terrorism.    

My take is the 59,000 are the assault units to break through the lines. The rest of the force is needed to hold the line and pin down the NAF units. Rule of thumb is you need at least a 3 to 1 force advantage to breakthrough defensive lines. Since the planned action apparently call for 2 simultaneous assault and the NAF have 10 units of 3,000 or so covering the front. In those two areas the UAF would have a 10 to 1 advantage and slice through easily to split the Donbas into 3 parts and reach the Russian borders.  

Your grotesquely exaggerating the Ukronies military strength. The Ukronies have serious problems with desertions to the point they're calling on pregnant women to join the mobilization, and their military is suffering from a notoriously incompetent command structure. If their military strength was sufficient enough to conquer the Donbass, why are they demanding pregnant women to join their fighting military ranks?

Objectively speaking their army's morale is pathetically low, and there's enough Ukronie training videos exposing their very poor levels of fighting capability and skill. Hell even recently a SBU saboteur accidentally blew themselves in to pieces trying to plant a bomb on some rail lines.

He will proclaim recognition of both republics if you ask me.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

franco wrote:

My take is the 59,000 are the assault units to break through the lines. The rest of the force is needed to hold the line and pin down the NAF units. Rule of thumb is you need at least a 3 to 1 force advantage to breakthrough defensive lines. Since the planned action apparently call for 2 simultaneous assault and the NAF have 10 units of 3,000 or so covering the front. In those two areas the UAF would have a 10 to 1 advantage and slice through easily to split the Donbas into 3 parts and reach the Russian borders.  

Your grotesquely exaggerating the Ukronies military strength. The Ukronies have serious problems with desertions to the point they're calling on pregnant women to join the mobilization, and their military is suffering from a notoriously incompetent command structure. If their military strength was sufficient enough to conquer the Donbass, why are they demanding pregnant women to join their fighting military ranks?

Objectively speaking their army's morale is pathetically low, and there's enough Ukronie training videos exposing their very poor levels of fighting capability and skill. Hell even recently a SBU saboteur accidentally blew themselves in to pieces trying to plant a bomb on some rail lines.

Methinks we are about to find out...

I am sort of wondering if he was also eating his tie in the calls?



Should have stayed a comedian huh?.

Putin said sanctions inevitable a few days ago , why ? Decision was already made . Why they delay in action , and this defeatist decision to evacuate ? I think this was Russia trying to avoid economic consequences . But as many observed correctly , accepting ethnic cleansing , is no solution either . And if Russia now answers the call of independent Republics , to come to their aid , then sanctions and punishment will follow . Russia will pay the price , irrespective of scope of action in Ukraine . And if the Ukronazi elements are left alone , to stay in power , they will then turn into a festering sore for Russia and Europe . As I said before , the cause must be removed . A time to go to Lviv , to sweep the house clean ! Repeated punitive strikes  to ensure a clean house or a weed free Garden .

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/business/russian-banks-foreign-cash-sanctions/index.html

Russian ratings agency ACRA estimates that the country's banks imported $5 billion worth of banknotes in foreign currencies in December, up from $2.65 billion a year before, in a pre-emptive step in case of sanctions that create increased demand.

Buckle up boys.

So Putin has told Macron and Scholz a decree is about to be signed

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698088/amp

At the same time the airspace is closed over Azov sea, those landing ships get closer

Putin wants to intimidate the Kiev regime into submission

It's all gradual escalation with increasing stakes

Exactly at the moment when Dmitry Medvedev was walking to the microphone, the Russian stock market began to fall. Investors felt the awakening of an Ancient Evil...

One of the first phrases of Medvedev: "I remember 2008 well..."
/the Russian stock market is falling by 10.5%

Airbornewolf wrote:
Should have stayed a comedian huh?.

Cmn', give him some credit, isn't he one with no pause?

Now imagine if China turns on Russia as well, and they and the West all declare Putin a violator of international law and new Saddam Hussein

Well. Don't say it can't happen

I don't see any good to come from this. If it's a pressure tactic, it didn't work. If it's a bluff, time to call it off has passed. If it's real, then what next? Restart of civil war in the Ukraine?

https://www.rt.com/russia/550139-russia-recognizes-independence-donbass/

He just needs to sign the decree, few moments now

flamming_python wrote:Now imagine if China turns on Russia as well, and they and the West all declare Putin a violator of international law and new Saddam Hussein

Well. Don't say it can't happen

I don't see any good to come from this. If it's a pressure tactic, it didn't work. If it's a bluff, time to call it off has passed. If it's real, then what next? Restart of civil war in the Ukraine?

China just lasered an Australian P8

China is gonna start the same show in Taiwan

China is watching and learning

flamming_python wrote:Now imagine if China turns on Russia as well, and they and the West all declare Putin a violator of international law and new Saddam Hussein

Well. Don't say it can't happen

I don't see any good to come from this. If it's a pressure tactic, it didn't work. If it's a bluff, time to call it off has passed. If it's real, then what next? Restart of civil war in the Ukraine?

Dumbass.  China has repeatedly sided with Russia over this.  They already admitted it at least three times so far this year alone.  All has to do with Taiwan.

China has backed Russia regarding Ukraine for years now. China is being isolated and attacked by US as well. They won't side with the person pointing a gun at them, they made that clear.

Stock market down in Russia 15% before sanctions. Time for me to put some money together buy low baby let’s go!!!! Bitcointrader70 gonna get some dough dough dough dough !!