2020–2021 Belarusian protests

I don't think EU wants another war at their border. Knowing how Ukrainian candidature for EU ended I don't think any belorussian think they have any chance to go in EU anyday soon. And I don't think they will be stupid enough to invite any US politician and seek their help.

Lukachenko is facing a situation he never faced with its people trying to remove him. Now he fights as much as he can politically because Putin will never allow him to use the army against the people of Belarus.

miketheterrible wrote:Russia isn't some kind of pigmy state you know. The amount they funded Belarus in 1 year alone, they can use a fraction of it to opposition.  And who gives a shit if it's used as propaganda? Propaganda is being used against them without facts anyway. So why does it matter?  At least attempt to do something rather than nothing.

People think Ukraine will suffer without Russia. Much like Belarus. What said people don't realize is a couple of things: Russian land physically gone and being used by the enemy, the people will hate Russia even more anyway regardless how shit their own situation is without Russia, and they can be used as springboards for issues within Russia.  Plus enemy states placing military gear even closer.  This comes at a time Russia's economic ministry is trying to stifle funding to military procurement.

Instead, a cheaper solution is getting someone that isn't an asshole and willing to cooperate in power in Belarus. But inaction is the name of the game.  Yes, Russia doesn't have allies. But having buffer states is good. Removing those to save a few billion will end up costing them tens of billions more a year to provide added protection.  Not to mention they will need to deal with the demographic issue to now provide more soldiers that would be needed to defend their borders.

Oh well.

Russia does not need buffer states, anybody doing stupid things in their borders is in the crosshairs of a military superpower that can whip them off the map without breaking sweat, and Estonia is already 150 km from St. Petersburg so Belarus does not make the risk of a surprise attack worse. What they need is the Russians back in Russia, which is the fundamental problem they face due to the catastrophic way Soviet Union ended. This will not be solved by arranging a new parasite in Belarus. What they have done during these past years is very clear: remove their dependence in strategic issues from foreign countries and remove also the subsidies to their economies. Belarus was offered integration given their population is essentially identical to Russians; they don't want it? Ok that is legit, but then they will have to manage without Russia in every sense, and that includes also keeping the regime change troupe at bay.

Will the population, or some among them, react in time and organize themselves to preserve their bonds with Russia, or will they allow to be used as a ram by the West? By now they are being fooled big time, but whatever happens is their problem. Russia will surely be there to pick the most interesting professionals and save lots of money cutting completely the subsidies to Belarus. And further down the road, when the Western interference is weakened, it will be simply impossible to ignore that Russia is THE fundamental partner for those countries. They will be the ones trying to mend ties and making concessions. Every historical mistake has a price, and the ones made by Eastern countries are huge.

Anyway, that is just my take, let us see what happens.

It would be nice if Russia could regime change Ukraine and now Belorus. But it is not that simple. Regime change works for
the yanquis because they have a mythological veil of being super wealthy and powerful. Unfortunately, in society the opportunist
maggots have the initiative. That is why the whole 3rd world is subject to comprador regimes. Belorus and Ukraine are just
new members of the 3rd world. Their development level is a metastable residual of the USSR period which is quickly collapsing.
They are naturally lapsing into the comprador regime mode.

Of course, the yanquis are nowhere as rich and powerful as the idiots believe. And Russia is nowhere near as poor and weak.
But delusions are, I believe, the last to go. So all these yanqui bootlick losers need to live their chosen life. Russia cannot
fix their idiocy.

The above applies to Ukraine for sure. Belorus is now not known to me. I do not know how they got some "identity" shoved
up their asses. But it looks like propaganda works. If so, then I want for Russia to have nothing to do with these losers.

The Russia-Belorus union is dead.   Lukashenko the red director retard has effectively declared it to be so.   So August 4, 2020
marks the end of the line.   This retard actually thinks that Russia is desperate to do anything to retain his "friendship".   This
retard also thinks Russia is isolated.   So he is a NATzO sycophant at the core.   Recall that NATzO accounts for 11% of the
world population.  China alone is bigger than all of NATzO.

Too bad for Belorus. It has been getting an average annual subsidy of $8 billion US dollars for the last 20 years. Now
it will have to whore itself out like Ukraine.

Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.

miketheterrible wrote:Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.

If they are dumb enough to still use non-proprietary tech then they deserve to have it compromised

USSR ended 30 years ago, either move on or be left behind

Note how the NATzO fake stream media always bitches when Russia deploys defense assets to its Arctic border and islands which
are literally thousands of kilometers from NATzO, but thinks its hunky dory for NATzO force of aggression assets to be deployed
right up to Russia's borders. That's the sort of demented exceptionalist thinking that the Nazis had.

What is most amusing about HATO rhetoric is that Russia is not building bases in Russia... they are leaving Russia and putting bases in the Far East and Arctic, so that when UK and US troops go to Norway or Greenland it is not invading the Arctic because they were invited by those countries, whereas Russia is invading the Arctic with their military bases... and upgraded ports and airfields...

PapaDragon wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.  

If they are dumb enough to still use non-proprietary tech then they deserve to have it compromised

USSR ended 30 years ago, either move on or be left behind

What do you mean? What I'm saying is that compromise can happen due to their proprietary tech being handed over to the enemy.

Although, I think this will blow over after elections

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:What lessions can Russia learn from the Ukrainian debacle?If a new maidan does take place, what would the best course of action be?

As other are saying above, they should have learned at least not to give them top of the line domestic military products... by now it seems they are starting to give people coming from Belarus a special stamp at the border, so they are already starting to prepare for a eventual maidan and the rolling back of the union state.

BTW, just an additional proof of what a BS this "Russian maidan" is: presidential candidate Andrey Dmitriev, as essentially all others, just suck up to the West and try to cut relations with Russia, disguising by now under terms like "neutrality" to fool the population. Proposals are withdrawal of Russian bases, abandoning of CSTO and so on...

https://ria.ru/20200805/1575385157.html

kvs wrote:Too bad for Belorus.   It has been getting an average annual subsidy of $8 billion US dollars for the last 20 years.   Now
it will have to whore itself out like Ukraine.

It seems Lukashenko has already started his whoring time, perhaps he thinks he can save his ass by being the leading Belarusian russophobe himself...

...Can you read English or are you just trying to put up a narrative you like....

This has got to be one of the biggest garbage posts I have seen you post.

This is a discussion forum. I come here to discuss and I assume you do to.

I realise you are the centre of your own universe but perhaps English does not mean to you what it means to me.

Please take the time to look at the post I made.

The first line is a quote... of what you actually said. No words put there by me... I just copied and pasted what YOU wrote.

Specifically:

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

To which I made ONE comment... ie:

Hahaha.... hilarious.... Russia have not done anything but you are supporting those poor innocent young Belarus men and women in their struggle against the evil Russia...

That was directed at you and your comment, which I quoted fully and directly from you.

The rest of my post was a contribution to this thread.

It had nothing at all to do with you... in fact I am sure you are probably intimately aware of most of those details so there is no point in telling you.

My comments were directed at the people of Belarus reminding them of their alternatives... right now the Ukraine is living the dream after losing quite a few people... the fact that the US hired snipers to murder people in the streets of the Ukraine... murdering both police but also people who they were supposedly helping... Ukrainian heroes of democracy brutally turned in to martyrs to stir up the rest to make them do something seriously stupid without thinking too much...

But no, lets make it all about you and warnings and threats.

By all means feel free to ignore my comments and a member here...

When speaking as a mod ignore me at your peril but as a mod I am saying to you now you can ignore me as a member all you like... we don't need to interact at all socially here... that is fine. Just be clear when I suggest certain behaviour stops or mention problems or get complaints then that needs to be complied with.

Otherwise ignore away... that is fine, but can I suggest to try to take things less personally and not assume I am always talking about you.

This is Putins fault in that he isn't hard on Lukashenko

When an opponent is making a mistake... never interrupt them...

Everything is Putin's fault, Ukranians say he is guilty also of maidan. Reality is Lukashenko himself has parted ways with Russia, what should Putin do? If he threatens it would be used for propaganda, if they organise undercover support for pro-russian forces it will be used for propaganda (in fact this possibility has now been pre-empted by the arrest of the Russian contractors under bogus claims, so Russia is under big political pressure and cannot intervene directly to prevent a violent maidan). Russia cannot compete with the West to buy political will in the post-soviet space, that is a fact.

Putin shouldn't act... all these years of buying Belarus and the Ukraine with work and investment they would never get from the west... and for what... they don't appreciate what they have.... and the only way they will is when they lose it.

Nothing Putin could do to make them appreciate Russia and all the perks and trade they get, except do nothing and let them choose to throw it away.

Belarus is a soverign state and is free to do as it pleases... pointing a shotgun and forcing a ring on its finger wont solve the problem of wedding jitters... what it will do is put more cyanide in the soup for tea tonight... no honey, I am not hungry... you eat up though...

The West does not understand that their invasions and regime changes don't last and they don't always turn out how they would like... Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Kosovo, Iraq... the western push to get independence for Kosovo led directly to Russia recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which meant opening Russian borders and establishing trade... those autonomous regions of Georgia were no longer dependent on Georgia and Suck arse Milli Vanilli over reacted... he thought Uncle Sam and the might of HATO was at his back... which created two new independent countries... one step forward two steps back. The Ukraine cut Russia off from supplies of their marine engines and helicopter engines and lots of other military technology, but Russia got the Crimea back and those engines are now getting replaced by better engines that are Russian made. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan ... all those conflicts greatly increased the influence and power of Iran and Russia in the region both directly and indirectly... and Libya created the migrant sea that created turmoil in the EU and will continue to be the source of terrorist activity for the next few decades one suspects.

Putin understands, and rather than knee jerk responses like shooting down a Turkish plane instead of measured responses that allowed him to make some deals later on he never could have made if he just went for eye for an eye... Turkey would have F-35s by now and south stream would need to be rejiggered.. he took measures that didn't hurt Russia but Turkey felt them... and understood it did wrong.

But I am sure the Baltic States and Georgia and the Ukraine know best... Belarus does not need incentives to join Russia, what they need is the chance to try the alternative for a bit without bloodshed and without animosity... no sabotage, no Russian aggression... if Belarus wants to turn west then they are free to do so... Russia will be there but there wont be free gas or other bribes... if you join the team you get mates rates but no free ride.

Magnitsky had serious medical issues and died in jail. Dozens of critical witnesses have died in US jails but nobody has passed
legislation to penalize America for this. The NATzO lie factory media tried to paint Magnitsky as a "human rights lawyer" when
he was a corrupt accountant working for Browder. His alleged "evidence" against Russian authorities is nothing but self-serving
pap.

The truth is more amusing... he didn't die for what he knew about Putin... he died for what he knew about Browder... he didn't want to go down for Browders crimes, but if he testified against Browder the evidence could be used to get proper extraditions going... Browder had to get the support of the west, and he did that by claiming he is innocent and had dirt on Putin and that is why he was being pursued. But that was not enough... by getting the Acts through in the US he has assured that any capture in any territory and any extradition to Russia to face real justice will just be seen as Putin dealing with another political enemy... when politics has nothing to do with it... Browder is just a thief and a murderer and the reason Magnitsky was killed is probably because he isn't the only dead body in Browders history in Russia...

The problem for the Russians is they cannot let Belarus fall out of their orbit the area is simply too important for them, if something goes down. Honestly, they have to act and seize Belarus. They cannot afford another Ukraine and they do not want Western forces in Belarus so. Yes, they will be punished by EU and what not but better that then lose Belarus.

But don't you see the contradiction. The main value of Belarus is that they share a border with the EU... a land bridge that is blocked off to the north because the Ukraine is closed to them.

But a Russian regime change in Belarus would close the EU to Russia just as much, if not more so... whereas, as has been mentioned the pro west factions in Belarus are not that strong... and the problem with blackmail... is that eventually you have to follow through with your threats...

Russian land physically gone and being used by the enemy

But neither Ukraine nor Belarus... except Crimea are Russian land.... in fact the Ukraine turning west was really the only chance Russia had to get the Crimea out from under them so they have gotten the only bit of Russian land back that they could have gotten.

Plus enemy states placing military gear even closer. This comes at a time Russia's economic ministry is trying to stifle funding to military procurement.

Enemy military equipment is easier to hit. There is no level of military equipment the Ukraine or Belarus could put at their borders that would threaten Russia... and certainly nothing a tactical nuke couldn't sort out.

Yes, Russia doesn't have allies. But having buffer states is good. Removing those to save a few billion will end up costing them tens of billions more a year to provide added protection. Not to mention they will need to deal with the demographic issue to now provide more soldiers that would be needed to defend their borders.

When you say buffer states you mean small insignificant countries between you and the major powers of HATO... so what changes if they look west.

Russia doesn't need a coup in Belarus... they just need democracy to actually work... let them vote. Eventually they will want a change... play hardball in negotiations... force him to follow through in his bluff.... they wont get anything like the trade from the EU that they get from Russia... HATO will send troops and set up radar sites, but they wont invest money in the economy and the asset stripping will be much more painful for a country that is still alive.

Belorus and Ukraine are just
new members of the 3rd world.

Such an accurate description.... and they want Russia to join them as new members of the third world too...

Of course, the yanquis are nowhere as rich and powerful as the idiots believe.

When that bubble bursts and everyone realises it is actually monopoly money they are handing out for gold and energy and things of value... well... more delicious because US sanctions are forcing alternatives to the US dollar so they are flinging thumb tacks around and playing with bows and arrows and darts... when one child finds that handgun it is all over...

Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.

That is not ideal, but if the shift is peaceful rather than traumatic things could be done perhaps...

Proposals are withdrawal of Russian bases, abandoning of CSTO and so on...

Perhaps when they withdraw they withdraw certain items with them that they are helping maintain...

I doubt they would have anything super secret, and then again when the MiG-25P was compromised it did result in a much upgraded MiG-25PD at a time when they were happy with the MiG-25 and with the MiG-31 on the way were not going to upgrade them at all.

Anyway, according to some of the sources that I was reading the amount of help (including discounts on sales of gas and oil and buying back some of the finished products at market prices, etc) given from Russia to Belorussia was about 8 billions US Dollars per year... this is about 0,5% of Russian GDP, but it has a huge impact on Belorussian economy (which GDP is much smaller at about 60 billions).

That money could be easily used to build new factories and infrastructures in Russian areas that need to be developed (and in the future also in donbass, if they decide to reunite with Russia).

GarryB wrote:

Note how the NATzO fake stream media always bitches when Russia deploys defense assets to its Arctic border and islands which
are literally thousands of kilometers from NATzO, but thinks its hunky dory for NATzO force of aggression assets to be deployed
right up to Russia's borders.   That's the sort of demented exceptionalist thinking that the Nazis had.

What is most amusing about HATO rhetoric is that Russia is not building bases in Russia... they are leaving Russia and putting bases in the Far East and Arctic, so that when UK and US troops go to Norway or Greenland it is not invading the Arctic because they were invited by those countries, whereas Russia is invading the Arctic with their military bases... and upgraded ports and airfields...

Such inane propaganda reflects the decline of the average mass media consumer. The millenials are a generation of
functional illiterates who have gone through dumbed down education systems. The participation trophy generation.

There is a minority who have diverged from this pool of idiots and have abandoned the fake stream media. But they
do not steer the politics of the NATzO west.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Anyway, according to some of the sources that I was reading the amount of help (including discounts on sales of gas and oil and buying  back some of the finished products at market prices, etc) given from Russia to Belorussia was about 8 billions US Dollars per year... this is about 0,5% of Russian GDP, but it has a huge impact on Belorussian economy (which GDP is much smaller at about 60 billions).

That money could be easily used to build new factories and infrastructures in Russian areas that need to be developed (and in the future also in donbass, if they decide to reunite with Russia).

The Russian investment in Belorus was and still is as of this moment insanely high. It comes to 8/9.5 thousand US dollars per capita per year.
Since only about 50% of the population is paying the taxes (not the children and not the elderly) it really amounts to about 1.7 thousand
US dollars per taxpayer. That is over three months of average wages in Belorus.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:What lessions can Russia learn from the Ukrainian debacle?If a new maidan does take place, what would the best course of action be?

The lessons are academic. Human societies suck ass and countries are very much like a wolf pack with all the betas sucking up to the one
alpha. Since the USA is seen as the alpha, we have what we have.

Video on Reuters about Luka's claims on The mercs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFdsb6HOCic

Accusing the Russians of wanting to stage a bloody coup, which I think is just hogwash.

And in an instant Luk-ass-henko will turn from the last bloody dictator in Europe to a peace loving, democratically elected politician with human rights and freedom in his heart.

Will be interesting to see how he explains his populace that he didn´t accept a russian base on "his" soil but americans are welcome.

miketheterrible wrote:Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.  

The people trading russian weapons are not nice guys. Take their money away and they will take your head.

And I don't beleive they gave Russian version of those systems even to Belorussia.

However it's doubtfull Belorussia does that. Lukachenko is considered as a dictator in EU. They will never support him specially that he is putting in jail the candidats for the election right now. If they support Belarus it will be with a puppet president and Lukachenko won't let that happen and turn towards Russia again.

If the EU/US backed candidats shows up, russians will take the whole country and put the Iskanders and Su-30SM at their borders encircling the baltic states which would be funny to see.

As for now it's all talk.

GarryB wrote:Putin shouldn't act... all these years of buying Belarus and the Ukraine with work and investment they would never get from the west... and for what... they don't appreciate what they have.... and the only way they will is when they lose it.

I agree. In reality it was not out of pure kindness that Russia has maintained the neighbouring ticks, they needed them in one or other way. But now this is increasingly not the case. They could not justify giving more privileges to Belarus in front of the other CIS states other than through the union state. It gets rejected -> Belarus privileges are gone and Luka scrambles to search for a new patron.

As to Putin's attitude, sometimes I am shocked that people really don't appreciate that the guy actually appears to have some respect for the rule of law... should he behave like US, really? As you argue in your post, buying treacherous officials and behaving just like a mafia boss is not going to be a very sustainable way of doing things and is not a valid statesman behaviour, for many reasons.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Anyway, according to some of the sources that I was reading the amount of help (including discounts on sales of gas and oil and buying back some of the finished products at market prices, etc) given from Russia to Belorussia was about 8 billions US Dollars per year... this is about 0,5% of Russian GDP, but it has a huge impact on Belorussian economy (which GDP is much smaller at about 60 billions).

That money could be easily used to build new factories and infrastructures in Russian areas that need to be developed (and in the future also in donbass, if they decide to reunite with Russia).

That is something like 600 billion rubles... we just found the money needed for two CVNs (per year) or similarly expensive projects... Belarus should do something very special for Russia to do without that money, not behaving like idiots.

"Lithuania’s Alleged Involvement in 2014 Ukraine Maidan Coup."

https://www.globalresearch.ca/lithuania-alleged-involvement-maidan-contradicts-supposed-european-values/5720201

par far wrote:"Lithuania’s Alleged Involvement in 2014 Ukraine Maidan Coup."

https://www.globalresearch.ca/lithuania-alleged-involvement-maidan-contradicts-supposed-european-values/5720201

The Baltics were involved in the 1917 Bolshevik coup also.

https://www.rbth.com/history/331104-how-latvians-defended-communism

https://www.globalresearch.ca/poland-lublin-triangle-create-trouble-russian-belarusian-relations/5720105?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

Edit: a different read:
https://tass.com/pressreview/1185915

Will be interesting to see how he explains his populace that he didn´t accept a russian base on "his" soil but americans are welcome.

That will be amusing...

But being the white knight on the front line saving the poor innocent and strangely vulnerable EU from the Russian aggression by moving HATO bases closer to Moscow means he can do no wrong... the Russian language banned and opposition groups abused or just made to disappear... are just some of the super powers anyone with anti Putin views get in the western media...