2020–2021 Belarusian protests

So things are not going well in Belarus.

So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.  Now, a Belarus opposition has fled Belarus to Moscow because he is being threatened and is banned from taking part in elections.

Lukashenko is pushing his luck to the extreme.  Wants to damage ties with Russia for some reason.  He isn't that stupid and knows what happened in Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288467049791082496?cxt=HHwWgMC--ZD9xuEjAAAA
https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288460584409878528?cxt=HHwWgMC-jeaExOEjAAAA

https://www.rt.com/news/496532-belarus-military-company-detention/

Now look at the video closely.  There is a document written in Arabic.

miketheterrible wrote:So things are not going well in Belarus.

So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.  Now, a Belarus opposition has fled Belarus to Moscow because he is being threatened and is banned from taking part in elections.

Lukashenko is pushing his luck to the extreme.  Wants to damage ties with Russia for some reason.  He isn't that stupid and knows what happened in Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288467049791082496?cxt=HHwWgMC--ZD9xuEjAAAA
https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288460584409878528?cxt=HHwWgMC-jeaExOEjAAAA

https://www.rt.com/news/496532-belarus-military-company-detention/

Now look at the video closely.  There is a document written in Arabic.

I think that Lukashenko has a degraded intellect thanks to his years in power. We are judging him from the position of average
citizens so we do not appreciate what bubble he has been living in for decades. Absolute power corrupts absolutely is not a
vapid dictum, it is based on centuries of human experience. Lukashenko's thinking has been distorted by decades of getting
his own way and not having to accept reality. He may have been more on the ball in 1990, but he was still some low-grade
red director back then.

Lukashenko is actually corrupt. His family owns several mansions unlike Putin who does not own one in spite of all the pathetic
NATzO lies trying to claim that refurbished government palaces are his property. Lukashenko is also tied up with oligarchs like
the one who was profiting from cheap Russian oil which was being reprocessed into more expensive goods like fuels and lubricants
to sale to the west. So Lukashenko is literally a tin pot dictator in charge of a banana republic. His oppression of the opposition
is real. Belorussians naturally want to be allied with Russia since they are ethnic Russians with a regional dialect. Lukashenko
has sucked up to NATzO and is trying to concoct a fake history for Belorus. Like his claim that Belorus had nothing to do with
the war between Stalin and Hitler. This inane BS is just like the Ukr claims to Russian history as their own.

https://southfront.org/belarus-claims-it-detained-32-mercenaries-near-minsk/

Lets wait to see what happens after elections. Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia. I dunno how this will play out to be honest. I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.

par far wrote:https://southfront.org/belarus-claims-it-detained-32-mercenaries-near-minsk/

Lukashenko is a NATzO stooge who is clearly using the services of the yanquis and the Brits. Why would 32 mercs
be effective at staging a coup? You need way more people to coordinate a coup and most of them are civilians.
These days you also need a massive rent-a-crowd like the on in 2013/14 in Ukraine.

This cheesy propaganda is like the claim that Russia stole "western" vaccine research. A pathetic attempt
to dilute the fact that Russia got to the trial stage much faster than the whole of NATzO. To the average
sap the notion of vaccines being like some tech design is plausible, to people with knowledge it is pure intellectual
insult.

miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.

Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well. Something that will be a problem for Russia.

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.

Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well.  Something that will be a problem for Russia.

That was true for Ukraine as well.

That is true, but Russia doesn't need more enemies at its border.  5M more people to hate Russia and work against it isn't good.  Already many Ukrainian supporters of Navalny and such are working against Russia in other regions of Russia.

Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

then again, it isn't like India isn't surrounded by much bigger and stronger enemies than Russia is. So I guess in Russia's instance, they need to rely more on themselves and start clamping down on these 5th columnists from within while also working with bigger and stronger nations, while saving money from having to assist these smaller, pathetic nations like Belarus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1288480877656322050

Belarus was being used as a transport hub by Wagner because Russian airports are closed to foreign travel, the Belarus KGB was appraised of it. The arrest of the 32 Wagnerites and publication of their identities is a very hostile move on Lukashenko's part.

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.

Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well.  Something that will be a problem for Russia.

Which technologies?

I thought they were mainly working on some reprocessing oil industry (basically a bone thrown by the Russian to them) and they did some decent trucks (MAZ) that in same cases were a bit better than the equivalent Russian, according to some people. There is also Abramovich aircraft repair plants, that is also working on repair and modernisation of some export model sukhoi...

If there is something more important (like it was the case of Ukraine pre 2014) it would be more problematic...

While Russia makes all the thermal imagers for their tanks and armored vehicles, they are all under Belarus assembly. Meaning Russia will have to move production of its armored vehicle imaging system assembly into Russia.

Next major issue is Belarus holds a lot of Russian sensitive tech in the Electric warfare capabilities.

Well, the word coup was never mentioned by anyone anywhere, so it's silly to use that term.

That said, Wagner wouldn't make sense to use for any political disruption operation in Belarus. They simply don't do that kind of work.

Chances are it's just Lukashenko using Wagner's name to get some brownie points, he has been stating recently Russia has been trying to discredit him. So it makes sense to use Wagner in this cause they are under the control of the GRU.

That said Russia has been getting worried about Belarus recently with the way Luka has been acting, so it's not unthinkable Russia has some goal in mind with Belarus.

IMO, if Putin cannot annex or force Belarus into the Federation soon (which he has been trying to do). That area is going to become a massive security risk to the Russians.

miketheterrible wrote:That is true, but Russia doesn't need more enemies at its border.  5M more people to hate Russia and work against it isn't good.  Already many Ukrainian supporters of Navalny and such are working against Russia in other regions of Russia.

Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

then again, it isn't like India isn't surrounded by much bigger and stronger enemies than Russia is.  So I guess in Russia's instance, they need to rely more on themselves and start clamping down on these 5th columnists from within while also working with bigger and stronger nations, while saving money from having to assist these smaller, pathetic nations like Belarus.

I agree that regime change in Belorus is fully justified. But I think that Belorussians will not hate Russia as much as
the Banderite vermin in former Ukraine. There is no centuries long history of a separate identity. In fact, the
slide of Belorus into the economic toilet will kill the whole anti-Russia project. Faced with a choice of drinking
some koolaid about a mythical history and living well, the masses will choose the latter. In Banderastan that
is not so easy since there are millions of hard core Banderites invested in the anti-Russian agenda.

Hole wrote:Would be nice to see the reaction from western media if he had some sort of "accident". In one second he would turn from "evil dictator" to "poor victim of russian aggression/Putin".

What this punk ass move deserves is for Russia to stop construction on the nuclear power plant in Belorus and to cut off military
purchases. It is clear that Belorus is a write off and as long as no regime change occurs, it is pointless to collaborate with it.
Russia is way too soft on all sorts of idiots.

According to most, since there is no way to leave Russia by plane, these guys were either returning or heading to Africa via Belarus. So they were there for other reasons and nothing to do with Elections. This is apparently (to some) revenge by Lukashenko for his oppositionist fleeing Belarus to Moscow as he was going to be arrested.

https://mobile.twitter.com/27khv/status/1288565323424202754?cxt=HHwWhICwybTV8-EjAAAA

American state-run media
@Svoboda
(a cut out of
@RFERL
) says the Russians detained in Minsk were transiting through Belarus on their way to Sudan. Which would be a strange place to overthrow Lukashenko from.

I think this is mainly for internal consumption in Belorussia. Lukashenko is showing that he is tough on Russia to counter the pro west opposition.

Apparently Minsk is a transit point for these PMC types on their way to the Middle East. There seems to have been a silent agreement for this sort of thing. Looks like these arrested guys were headed to Sudan as they had Sudanese money on them and tourist pamphlets from Sudan. They were there a week already in the hotel wearing cammo outfits and were unarmed. Hardly something you would do if you were planning something in Belorussia.

Some people believe they will be released after the election when they won't be needed any longer.

Also, the opposition will likely not recognise the elections as legitimate and will try to topple the government by force. Lukashenko is said to be planning some sort of crackdown if that occurs.

Cyberspec wrote:I think this is mainly for internal consumption in Belorussia. Lukashenko is showing that he is tough on Russia to counter the pro west opposition.

Apparently Minsk is a transit point for these PMC types on their way to the Middle East. There seems to have been a silent agreement for this sort of thing. Looks like these arrested guys were headed to Sudan as they had Sudanese money on them and tourist pamphlets from Sudan. They were there a week already in the hotel wearing cammo outfits and were unarmed. Hardly something you would do if you were planning something in Belorussia.

Some people believe they will be released after the election when they won't be needed any longer.

Also, the opposition will likely not recognise the elections as legitimate and will try to topple the government by force. Lukashenko is said to be planning some sort of crackdown if that occurs.

I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.

Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character.

Well to be fair most people consider him to have become a wild and unpredictable character... the old saying that power corrupts is apt here.

I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.

I suspect Putin will be consistent and point out to others complaining about his inaction that it really is not up to the president of Russia to impose regime change on a neighbour and that it is for the population of that neighbouring country to decide what they should be doing for themselves because they will have to live with the consequences...

Like the Ukraine is for instance...

Belorussians are being fed the same koolaid, but I doubt that the effects will be as potent. So there is room for Russia to engineer its
own coup against Lukashenko's regime.

If Putin pulls that sort of shit what makes Russia any different from the west? If the Belrussians can't work out from the simpering kool aide addict on their border crying for another hit from the IMF and willing to sell their morality to get one more, then perhaps that is their destiny too.

From a Russian perspective if the west wins there it is one less state to carry... the Ukraine is no threat to Russia... certainly not a threat that couldn't be easily dealt with in war time...

The irony is that the US offers them freedom... but it is the Russians that are allowing them the freedom to choose for themselves...

So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.

What a surprise.... Wagner is now the evidence you need to prove Putin ordered it personally... why did I even give it a second thought...

Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.

Time for Russia to realise they are enabling a junkie and if you want to help him you need to expose him to the real world...

Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well. Something that will be a problem for Russia.

Just a lot of stuff that Russia will need to reinvent on Russian soil... investing in it self is never a bad thing... though friendly relations with neighbours is important sometimes you can't control what you neighbours do and who they associate with.

Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

The risk then is interfering and getting caught and the result being either pushing them into HATO arms... or worse winning them back but with a built in 5th column of millions of unhappy people wanting revenge on Russia because everything now will be Russias fault.

While Russia makes all the thermal imagers for their tanks and armored vehicles, they are all under Belarus assembly. Meaning Russia will have to move production of its armored vehicle imaging system assembly into Russia.

Next major issue is Belarus holds a lot of Russian sensitive tech in the Electric warfare capabilities.

If it is just assembly then move it to Russia anyway, and compromised technology is a good excuse to invest and upgrade....

I agree that regime change in Belorus is fully justified. But I think that Belorussians will not hate Russia as much as
the Banderite vermin in former Ukraine. There is no centuries long history of a separate identity. In fact, the
slide of Belorus into the economic toilet will kill the whole anti-Russia project. Faced with a choice of drinking
some koolaid about a mythical history and living well, the masses will choose the latter. In Banderastan that
is not so easy since there are millions of hard core Banderites invested in the anti-Russian agenda.

I suspect the best medicine if not to let them see what is happening to the Ukraine is to let Luka lead them to the west and the promise land and when they start cutting Russia off their lists of everything they might start to realise how closely integrated they are and how uninterested the west is to help fix those new problems they have... if there is no uprising there will at least be votes for opposing candidates next election time... by which time I suspect product substitution will be well underway...

Chances are it's just Lukashenko using Wagner's name to get some brownie points, he has been stating recently Russia has been trying to discredit him. So it makes sense to use Wagner in this cause they are under the control of the GRU.

But if it is true that Putin uses Wagner personally to do all his dirty work then are those not genuine and properly earned brownie points?

Or is it just western propaganda bullshit as I was saying all along?

IMO, if Putin cannot annex or force Belarus into the Federation soon (which he has been trying to do). That area is going to become a massive security risk to the Russians.

It is not a gap that cannot be closed...

Russia should have had the whole bench full of replacements ready and should have strangled that little maggot with his own intestines years ago but in their infinite stupidity they counted on friendship and diplomacy, absolute morons...

You suggest Russia not acting like the west is a shortcoming.... I say it is a strength, because at the end of the day the world needs an actual alternative to western bullshit and if Russia starts play stupid western games it just becomes more of the same rather than a real viable alternative to what has been holding the whole world back in terms of development and growth...

I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.

The lesson that the west are a bunch of , yes, I suspect they get that already... What I doubt is that they will interfere and try regime change... after all they are not American.

Well it could be interesting... these mercs are just being used as political pawns... but what if Luka wins the election in his usual manner and then of course these captives cost money to feed, so let them go... and then the people looking for a way out of their luka prison might offer these guys some money and weapons to do what they do best.

I mean the US encouraged a merc group to kidnap Maduro in Venezuela... it would be much easier to get 32 trained professional guys to kill a dictator with the support of the people and likely a few inside the military who are not happy either...

Major opposition in Ukraine are pro russian, not pro west.

And Luka wants to arrest them too.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/07/24/barred-belarus-opposition-candidate-flees-to-moscow-a70975

yeah, most of the opposition in Belarus are pro Russian it seems. Only one group is pro west and they are rather small too.

So Lukashenko is more like an opportunist in all its glory.

Apparently it wasn't Wagner but a different PMC outfit called 'MAR'.

https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/1288554689835888640