2020–2021 Belarusian protests

Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

By the way,

I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.

kvs wrote:

Regular wrote:Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

By the way,

I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.

That has been the issue with any system from day one.   The theory is never implemented in practice.

To be fair capitalists don't believe in their own values (i.e. Free-Market) in actual practice either.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.

I think there's a good chance a coup will be attempted. They'll send "activists" from Ukraine to stir the pot and help organise the local groups

Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

Thinking there is just one PMC group in Russia is just consistent western crap... along the same lines as they think like us so anything bad we would do they are probably doing so even though we have no evidence we think it is highly likely.

Blackwater was not proven to be involved in the recent attempt to kidnap Maduro.... it was a different group of ex military people wanting to earn that reward.... not every ex military person is ready to sit around and write books... a lot want excitement but being a merc on your own would be dangerous... our mercs are OK but their mercs are bad guys and easy targets on their own... and not everyone who has served gets along with everyone else who has served... it is only common sense that with all the danger and all the money there are going to be thousands of PMC type groups everywhere... and of course if you are sending troops into a country you don't already have people in you will seek out friendly PMCs to consult and maybe even hire for a few jobs...

But all Russian mercs are loyal to Putin and working for him personally is a trap the western media wants to be able to use to blame Russia for things it has nothing to do with.

If Russia wants to ensure peace in the Crimea to allow free and fair elections to take place they don't send in PMCs.

The US uses PMCs to protect civilian contractors so US Army does not need to do that directly.... the US Army is essentially a big PMC for US companies who want a US presence in places with oil or lithium... but they can't make that too obvious... because actual PMCs are well paid.

According to this article on southfront.. the alleged mercenaries from Russia that were detained in Belarus were travelling from there to Istanbul (and most probably from there to some other locations in north africa or in the middle east)


https://southfront.org/evidence-surfaces-that-russians-detained-in-belarus-were-in-fact-traveling-to-istanbul/


I hope this farce of the elections in belarus finish as soon as possible, at least the old man will diminish a bit his propaganda ...

Anyway, winning another election will not help him much if he continues on his path... Ceausescu was always reelected too...

One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

The power structures in Belarus have been already handed-in to the pro-West camp by the very Lukashenko in his stupid attempt to bargain with Putin and any pro-Russian public figure has long been removed from the scene, so who is going to organize that pro-Russian maidan? On the contrary, the notion that Russia is behind some kind of subversion is quite craftily being used to obfuscate the fact that a pro-western maidan along the lines of that in Ukraine is being blatantly prepared in Belarus, and I think you are right that Ukrainian nazis will make part of the menu... normal people in Ukraine never thought they were going to see events in their country like those in Georgia and then one good day they woke up living under an US-sponsored nazi government.

Probably Russia is trying not to overplay its hand and wait that US will destroy itself in the near future...

After that all the pro west and pro america people in those countries will be as useful as the ex communists in ex eastern germany or poland... and maybe do another 180 turn...

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

I would say, even older people want independent country, but they want pro-russian one too with no EU integration. Viktar Babaryka, most popular and pro-russian candidate, who is now in jail said that unification with Russia if that happens, it should be beneficial for both, rather than one party and if it to happen, Belarus shouldn't loose their sovereignty.

Young people want to have national identity and more dynamic government. All people want to get rid of irremovable president and deal with stagnation.

LMFS wrote:

The power structures in Belarus have been already handed-in to the pro-West camp by the very Lukashenko in his stupid attempt to bargain with Putin and any pro-Russian public figure has long been removed from the scene, so who is going to organize that pro-Russian maidan? On the contrary, the notion that Russia is behind some kind of subversion is quite craftily being used to obfuscate the fact that a pro-western maidan along the lines of that in Ukraine is being blatantly prepared in Belarus, and I think you are right that Ukrainian nazis will make part of the menu... normal people in Ukraine never thought they were going to see events in their country like those in Georgia and then one good day they woke up living under an US-sponsored nazi government.

Sorry, but what is wrong in Georgia today? I was there last year, spoke Russian with older people and it was ok. Saakashvilli is not welcome there, there are no skirmishes or provocations that were daily occurance before 2008. It's safe and clean even without being rich. They did control their corruption. Their opposition is dumb and dangerous, probably US funded., but their country don't lick US ass and culturally they are not part of pedofilic globohomo. If they are Russian enemies, then I'm wishing all enemies were like that.

I think Ukraine wish they were anything like Georgia, but I doubt they ever will. Ukrainian government is not Nazi, they were using them to get in power. Their government is clearly oligarchy that is only interested in robbing, Yeltsin looks good compared to them. They are interested in having never ending conflict in east, in so many years they didn't propose any solution.

The issue is also that Russia does not need Bielorussia on those conditions... Belorussia does not have much to offer to Russia... just some off hand ways to circumvent some of the mutual sanctions with the west, and production of stuff or reprocessing of goods that anyway originate from Russia... all of those are basically financial supports that russia gives to that country...

In the past client states had to pay tributes and give military support to their patron state (that was the case how the superpower of the time... be it Rome, Carthage and for the Persian empire behaved with their clients)..

However Belorussia is pretending to get Russian money, in exchange of nothing... just not to be too much aligned with the west...

A friend like that is not needed... bielorussia does not even support russian policies at the UN and is recently openly creating problems... if so they should be treated like poland... and the money saved used on investing on poorer regions of russia... and if they produce some components needed for russian industries or military... now it is the time to move production and assembly in Russia...

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

Hahaha.... hilarious.... Russia have not done anything but you are supporting those poor innocent young Belarus men and women in their struggle against the evil Russia...

The conflict in Georgia he western narrative was that the Russians were invading Georgia... which suggests that Georgia not only held them back but pushed them back from the borders with South Ossetia to allow the capital city to be shelled before the Russians pushed them back... when we all know now there were no Russian invasions and it was Georgian troops invading South Ossetia and murdering Russian peacekeepers stationed there that kicked off the conflict.... and in the Ukraine the western narative was that the evil pro Russian leader of the Ukraine murdered innocent civilians during peaceful protests, yet we now know it was a US paid for coup where Georgian snipers were paid to shoot specific "freedom fighters" and police to stir up the protests... Yanukovych was never pro Russia, he was simply pragmatic and realised the obvious that the EU promise of 7.5 billion dollars in loans is not as good a deal as 15 billion dollars in investments in their economy... and for that he was overthrown with nazis taking power who have since asset stripped the country.

But continue sipping the western kool aide... splitting Russia from Belarus will further damage Russia, but not in any long term way, and it will essentially remove a tick from Russias ass that has been drinking blood for three decades now without showing much promise of doing very much for itself except take advantage of cheap energy from Russia and its location in regard to being between Russia and the EU...

Such friendships should not be kept at all costs.... just let them decide for themselves... if they want to wear blue jeans and listen to rock and roll records then let them... they wont understand until they grow up... but Russia is not going anywhere... let them have their fun.... the lesson will be painful but life is painful.

He thinks the first time it worked so he is trying again.

https://www.rt.com/viral/497044-lukashenko-belarus-destabilization/

Lukashenko is threatening Russia now... What a fool. He is saying that all the protests are Russian provocation and every Russian up to Vladivostok will feel consequences if Russia will interfere again.
I've seen this on Belarus TV, will get a link later on.

Does he know that foreigners are watching this too? This shit is not even good for internal consumption!

yeap, cheap propaganda.

He will now state not another attempt because of his "warnings" to Russia.

This is Putins fault in that he isn't hard on Lukashenko.  He should make it clear in a televised message that such threats will not be taken lightly and put Luka in a hard spot.

Oh well, Russia should Punish Belarus once elections are over.  Destroy its economy and state "Due to Lukashenko's remarks and fake news, we were forced to make changes economically to be less dependent on Belarus".  Just watch as Luka would be destroyed quicker than an Italian tank.

Edit:

https://ria.ru/20200804/1575354528.html

I like Pushkovs remark. More or less states that it isnt them that has an object eye on Belarus but the west.

Essentially, everyone knows what Luka is doing - he is trying to blackmail Russia.

GarryB wrote:

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

Hahaha.... hilarious.... Russia have not done anything but you are supporting those poor innocent young Belarus men and women in their struggle against the evil Russia...

The conflict in Georgia he western narrative was that the Russians were invading Georgia... which suggests that Georgia not only held them back but pushed them back from the borders with South Ossetia to allow the capital city to be shelled before the Russians pushed them back... when we all know now there were no Russian invasions and it was Georgian troops invading South Ossetia and murdering Russian peacekeepers stationed there that kicked off the conflict.... and in the Ukraine the western narative was that the evil pro Russian leader of the Ukraine murdered innocent civilians during peaceful protests, yet we now know it was a US paid for coup where Georgian snipers were paid to shoot specific "freedom fighters" and police to stir up the protests... Yanukovych was never pro Russia, he was simply pragmatic and realised the obvious that the EU promise of 7.5 billion dollars in loans is not as good a deal as 15 billion dollars in investments in their economy... and for that he was overthrown with nazis taking power who have since asset stripped the country.

But continue sipping the western kool aide... splitting Russia from Belarus will further damage Russia, but not in any long term way, and it will essentially remove a tick from Russias ass that has been drinking blood for three decades now without showing much promise of doing very much for itself except take advantage of cheap energy from Russia and its location in regard to being between Russia and the EU...

Such friendships should not be kept at all costs.... just let them decide for themselves... if they want to wear blue jeans and listen to rock and roll records then let them... they wont understand until they grow up... but Russia is not going anywhere... let them have their fun.... the lesson will be painful but life is painful.

...Can you read English or are you just trying to put up a narrative you like....

This has got to be one of the biggest garbage posts I have seen you post.

Now only are you bringing up things I never said, Not only are you trying to twist my words AGAIN, for a person who loves to go on about how bad the US is. You act just like a politician trying to use a person's words against them to fit your narrative.

1. Did I claim the Russians did anything? No, I did not. I simply said in the situation Russia does make a move, the youth will not want and will fight back or at least there is a high chance of it.

2. I am not supporting anybody so I am assuming you can't read English well. None of what I said, in the structure, I said it says I support anyone in that case. I was merely stating the fact, Belarus youth do not want to be part of the Russian Federation and they do not.

3. What the F does Georgia have to do with what I said? I never mentioned them, so don't bring up anything I never talked about to make yourself look sound oh so smart, I guess you will get away with cheap political tactics on this place but hey.

4. I don't drink Kool-aid as you put it but you must chug that Russian kool-aid and hard. The fact is Belarus citizens have opposed unification with Belarus and that is literally the only claim I made everything else you decided to rant on and you inserting none existing talking points.

5. I have told you time and time and time and time again you cease putting words in my mouth and bringing up stuff that has nothing to do with what I said and Garry for the LAST TIME, if you cannot DO THIS. Do not talk to me, please and thank you. Considering this my last warning to you, I do not care if you don't like, disagree with what I said that is perfectly fine. if you one more time try and twist my words in such a manner as you just did. I will not respond to you anymore, at all, no matter what. I will not deal with your antics. I hope I have made myself clear.

Regular wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

I would say, even older people want independent country, but they want pro-russian one too with no EU integration. Viktar Babaryka, most popular and pro-russian candidate, who is now in jail said that unification with Russia if that happens, it should be beneficial for both, rather than one party and if it to happen, Belarus shouldn't loose their sovereignty.

Young people want to have national identity and more dynamic government. All people want to get rid of irremovable president and deal with stagnation.

This is a fair statement and I for the most part agree with it.

Regular wrote:Lukashenko is threatening Russia now... What a fool. He is saying that all the protests are Russian provocation

His entourage will use him to break relations with Russia and then they will finish him off... he is being a fool indeed, thinking he could surf the wave of Russophobia. Smart Belarusians better leave the country now.

miketheterrible wrote:This is Putins fault in that he isn't hard on Lukashenko. He should make it clear in a televised message that such threats will not be taken lightly and put Luka in a hard spot.

Everything is Putin's fault, Ukranians say he is guilty also of maidan. Reality is Lukashenko himself has parted ways with Russia, what should Putin do? If he threatens it would be used for propaganda, if they organise undercover support for pro-russian forces it will be used for propaganda (in fact this possibility has now been pre-empted by the arrest of the Russian contractors under bogus claims, so Russia is under big political pressure and cannot intervene directly to prevent a violent maidan). Russia cannot compete with the West to buy political will in the post-soviet space, that is a fact.

The strategy will be the same as with Ukraine: let them rot for many years and when they are done, discuss about all the territories that those republics received from the RF and never gave back after leaving the Soviet Union. The writing is on the wall for all of the "partners" in neighbouring countries that have been living off Russia for decades and now try to sell russophobia to the West.

Belarus is conducting war games near the Russian border.

There are only two reasonable cases here.

1. Luna is simply using Russia to get elected.

2. He is starting to favor West over the Russians and is thus slowly seeking to cut ties much as he can.

The problem for the Russians is they cannot let Belarus fall out of their orbit the area is simply too important for them, if something goes down. Honestly, they have to act and seize Belarus. They cannot afford another Ukraine and they do not want Western forces in Belarus so. Yes, they will be punished by EU and what not but better that then lose Belarus.

A threat to nation security should override any other major concerns

LMFS wrote:

Regular wrote:Lukashenko is threatening Russia now... What a fool. He is saying that all the protests are Russian provocation

His entourage will use him to break relations with Russia and then they will finish him off... he is being a fool indeed, thinking he could surf the wave of Russophobia. Smart Belarusians better leave the country now.

miketheterrible wrote:This is Putins fault in that he isn't hard on Lukashenko.  He should make it clear in a televised message that such threats will not be taken lightly and put Luka in a hard spot.

Everything is Putin's fault, Ukranians say he is guilty also of maidan. Reality is Lukashenko himself has parted ways with Russia, what should Putin do? If he threatens it would be used for propaganda, if they organise undercover support for pro-russian forces it will be used for propaganda (in fact this possibility has now been pre-empted by the arrest of the Russian contractors under bogus claims, so Russia is under big political pressure and cannot intervene directly to prevent a violent maidan). Russia cannot compete with the West to buy political will in the post-soviet space, that is a fact.

The strategy will be the same as with Ukraine: let them rot for many years and when they are done, discuss about all the territories that those republics received from the RF and never gave back after leaving the Soviet Union. The writing is on the wall for all of the "partners" in neighbouring countries that have been living off Russia for decades and now try to sell russophobia to the West.

Russia isn't some kind of pigmy state you know. The amount they funded Belarus in 1 year alone, they can use a fraction of it to opposition. And who gives a shit if it's used as propaganda? Propaganda is being used against them without facts anyway. So why does it matter? At least attempt to do something rather than nothing.

People think Ukraine will suffer without Russia. Much like Belarus. What said people don't realize is a couple of things: Russian land physically gone and being used by the enemy, the people will hate Russia even more anyway regardless how shit their own situation is without Russia, and they can be used as springboards for issues within Russia. Plus enemy states placing military gear even closer. This comes at a time Russia's economic ministry is trying to stifle funding to military procurement.

Instead, a cheaper solution is getting someone that isn't an asshole and willing to cooperate in power in Belarus. But inaction is the name of the game. Yes, Russia doesn't have allies. But having buffer states is good. Removing those to save a few billion will end up costing them tens of billions more a year to provide added protection. Not to mention they will need to deal with the demographic issue to now provide more soldiers that would be needed to defend their borders.

Oh well.