Syrian Civil War: News #9

JohninMK wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Zivo wrote:So, Incirlik... It'll be interesting to see if the Turks allow the US and NATO to use their airbase to support the guys who just blew up Turkey's tanks and killed their soldiers.

Maybe this was Erdogan's plan for a Turkexit.

Incirlik isn't needed for ISIS work, it was done so Turkey could not feel offended. As it is the US operates from CV and Al Dhafra or straight out Qatar.

A-10 doesn't have the range. Much easier to operate from Incirlik than some ad hoc operating base.

A-10 not needed for CAS in absolute. Most missions are done by F18/F16/15. A-10 statement.

Also previous speculation about Kornet was premature. The containers seen in those pictures are from Mortar rounds and the FSA have captured more from the area.

JohninMK wrote:Map number 3. A new one from Peto

Surprise...The Turks aren't even attempting to take out ISIS positions.

JohninMK wrote:Could this be the plan?

Probably.

Like I said before, east Ghouta, and after that Northern Homs.
Leave Alepo for now.




What Next for the SAA's Republican Guard?
http://www.insidesourcenews.com/#!What-Next-for-the-SAAs-Republican-Guard/cjds/57c2e2804730e9a21673343c

After 5 grueling years of urban fighting , plagued with mass devastation and widespread cases of death, the Western-Damascus suburb of 'Darayya" has finally fallen to government forces; following a withdrawal agreement between rebel forces and the local government. With up to 3,000 elite SAA (Syrian Arab Army) soldiers deployed on this crucial front, along with scores of heavily armoured vehicles now freed, one begins to wonder where this surplus of men and equipment will be redeployed to.

The battle of Darayya required large amounts of SAA firepower which came in the form of constant aerial bombardment and ground assaults backed by artillery. The rebels in Darayya successfully resisted all SAA attempts to seize the suburb completely, subsequently forcing the government to commit large amounts of resources to subdue the pocket; resources which could of been used on more vital fronts.

These resources consisted of a variety of gunships, which would launch daily aerial raids on the suburb, approximately 2,900 soldiers from the Republican Guard and 42nd Brigade of the 4th Mechanized Division, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles such as BMP's and a large range of artillery support.
The fall of Darayya has now freed these forces and allows them to redeploy to another front. An injection of a force of this magnitude can potentially tip the scales of any front in Syria which would be a real game changer.
Speculation continues to mount regarding the re-location of these forces with many rumours circulating across social media at the moment. There are various fronts which would benefit from the reinforcement including:

1. Eastern Ghouta
Being a front that already harbours up to 15,000 SAA soldiers according to some reports, Eastern Ghouta is seen as a major contender to receive this vital reinforcement. The pocket has been steadily shrinking over the last few months as figures show the pocket has shrunk by about 30-35% since the beginning of the year. The injection of these elite SAA forces, gunships and heavy armoury would certainly speed up the collapse of this front and potentially free up to 15,000 more soldiers. Although its an ambitious thought, it's definitely not out of reach if the SAA central command plays its cards right.

2. Northern Homs Pocket
The Northern Homs pockets has been subject to calm frontlines throughout the last few months other than inconsistent clashes in the countryside north of the pocket. Unconfirmed reports suggest 20k SAA soldiers are stationed in and around the pocket. The injection of elite republican guard units may spur the SAA into a large scale ground offensive, which if successful, will free up an unprecedented amount of men and equipment.

3. South-West Aleppo
After the large scale rebel offensive on Southern Aleppo, which lead to the lifting of the siege on Eastern Aleppo and large amount of losses among SAA ranks, the SAA and its allies are on the counter attack. Days of heavy clashes has lead to the SAA capturing the strategic hill of Umm AlQara and 70% of the 1070 apartments. However the main goal of seizing back the Ramousah district and artillery battalion seems unrealistic if things stay the same. Injecting 3,000 elite SAA soldiers would be a game changer and turns the Aleppo situation on its head. However, many believe there is an abundance of SAA soldiers in Aleppo and the reason why they are unable to recapture the artillery base and Ramousah district is due to tactical failure rather than a lack of men.

Sources close to us claim the likely destination of these elite SAA soldiers is South-West Aleppo in order to reverse recent rebel gains and re-implement the siege on Eastern Aleppo. Ultimately the redeployment of these units will be crucial in the SAA's chances of regaining military initiative across the country and producing solid gains.

Why don't SAA use Su-24 to bomb the artillery base? I don't imagine it can withstand 500 kg bombs no matter how tough it is.

calm wrote:Like I said before, east Ghouta, and after that Northern Homs.
Leave Alepo for now.




What Next for the SAA's Republican Guard?
http://www.insidesourcenews.com/#!What-Next-for-the-SAAs-Republican-Guard/cjds/57c2e2804730e9a21673343c

After 5 grueling years of urban fighting , plagued with mass devastation and widespread cases of death, the Western-Damascus suburb of 'Darayya" has finally fallen to government forces; following a withdrawal agreement between rebel forces and the local government. With up to 3,000 elite SAA (Syrian Arab Army) soldiers deployed on this crucial front, along with scores of heavily armoured vehicles now freed, one begins to wonder where this surplus of men and equipment will be redeployed to.

The battle of Darayya required large amounts of SAA firepower which came in the form of constant aerial bombardment and ground assaults backed by artillery. The rebels in Darayya successfully resisted all SAA attempts to seize the suburb completely, subsequently forcing the government to commit large amounts of resources to subdue the pocket; resources which could of been used on more vital fronts.

These resources consisted of a variety of gunships, which would launch daily aerial raids on the suburb, approximately 2,900 soldiers from the Republican Guard and 42nd Brigade of the 4th Mechanized Division, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles such as BMP's and a large range of artillery support.
The fall of Darayya has now freed these forces and allows them to redeploy to another front. An injection of a force of this magnitude can potentially tip the scales of any front in Syria which would be a real game changer.  
Speculation continues to mount regarding the re-location of these forces with many rumours circulating across social media at the moment. There are various fronts which would benefit from the reinforcement including:

1. Eastern Ghouta
Being a front that already harbours up to 15,000 SAA soldiers according to some reports, Eastern Ghouta is seen as a major contender to receive this vital reinforcement. The pocket has been steadily shrinking over the last few months as figures show the pocket has shrunk by about 30-35% since the beginning of the year. The injection of these elite SAA forces, gunships and heavy armoury would certainly speed up the collapse of this front and potentially free up to 15,000 more soldiers. Although its an ambitious thought, it's definitely not out of reach if the SAA central command plays its cards right.

2. Northern Homs Pocket
The Northern Homs pockets has been subject to calm frontlines throughout the last few months other than inconsistent clashes in the countryside north of the pocket. Unconfirmed reports suggest 20k SAA soldiers are stationed in and around the pocket. The injection of elite republican guard units may spur the SAA into a large scale ground offensive, which if successful, will free up an unprecedented amount of men and equipment.

3. South-West Aleppo
After the large scale rebel offensive on Southern Aleppo, which lead to the lifting of the siege on Eastern Aleppo and large amount of losses among SAA ranks, the SAA and its allies are on the counter attack. Days of heavy clashes has lead to the SAA capturing the strategic hill of Umm AlQara and 70% of the 1070 apartments. However the main goal of seizing back the Ramousah district and artillery battalion seems unrealistic if things stay the same. Injecting 3,000 elite SAA soldiers would be a game changer and turns the Aleppo situation on its head. However, many believe there is an abundance of SAA soldiers in Aleppo and the reason why they are unable to recapture the artillery base and Ramousah district is due to tactical failure rather than a lack of men.  

Sources close to us claim the likely destination of these elite SAA soldiers is South-West Aleppo in order to reverse recent rebel gains and re-implement the siege on Eastern Aleppo. Ultimately the redeployment of these units will be crucial in the SAA's chances of regaining military initiative across the country and producing solid gains.

I quite agree i posted something similar on page 13 of this thread, although i think Homs would be a waste of time at the moment its pretty quiet front and stoking the flames could just create another headache and stretch the RuAF and SyAF resources even further. I think for Homs right now it would be better to try and make deals with FSA for either truce/suspended fighting, or a deal for them to leave, considering the length of time the war has been going on it now seems the terrorists are now getting tired especially the ones in enclaves/surrounded i think their might be a chance for this in Homs. Personally i think as mentioned Aleppo has plenty just now if SAA need extra manpower in Aleppo they should be asking Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi paramilitary units to give more men especially Iran, they could easily give another 3,000 IRGC and send 12,000 normal ground troops and these could be used to reinforce held areas and free up experienced Syrian troops in quiet fronts so they could be free to bolster other active fronts.. I think the best bet would be Eastern Ghouta considering how quick its collapsing and i think in the end it will get to the point where another deal will be done in Douma once they see they dont have a chance of success. Also in eastern Ghouta they haven't been needing the help of RuAF and SyAF t help them make progress so stoking the flames here wont over stretch them.

at least 448 bastards KIA in southern Aleppo since battle started

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/501n1o/update_list_of_names_of_448_rebel_militants/

current map:



If the kurds lose that crossing, all they will have left is Tishreen to the south, their entire NW territory west of the Euphrates will be vulnerable.

How many ATGMs does SAA have. SAA urgently needs 10,000 more ATGMs to blast that artillery college.

KoTeMoRe wrote:
It's simple, the US plans to shape the Middle and Near east have failed in the last 25 years. That's not something debatable. They. Have. Failed. Everything they've touched in the region has turned to shit. And unlike the old days (Iran, Egypt, Turkey) the new guys they've tried to hire are all a fiasco. The problem with the US is the long term plan. They can't win in the long term because they do not understand what a International relationship is. The US Foreign Policy is a mess and it will be so as long as the US will be the N°1 spender in military matters. When all you have is a hammer, all problems become nails.

But thats the point you dont Understand. That turning into SHIT all the middle east Is their
Intention. You really think Americans are sorry that Yemen is fighting Saudi Arabia? This makes Saudis to buy guess what? MORE WEAPONS from American defense industry.. War is a Business.
In fact Americans airforce drop bombs in empty zones.. to later have to buy them again.
Money goes from American Tax dollars ,to the pockets of the Defense Industry and American Politicians. Is good business for the 1% of the american elite..and bad for the average American citizen.  

The war in Syria is not over yet.  Americans are 13 years in Afganistan already..and ISIS
presence is growing there.. This is not a failure.. is Working as Intended. The only only thing
not working is that Russia is defeating their terrorist ,and threatening to put an end to the war that .. is supposed to last Forever   .  If i tell you ,that the plan is to keep the war Going
F O R E V E R. then where is the failure?  Forever a war in afganistan.. forever a war in Syria,
forever a war in IRAQ.. then were is the failure?  

The only major failure here ..is Russia reversing all the gains of Alqaeda and ISIS ,defeating them and saving Syria from being over Run and strengtening pro Russian nations capabilities to fight back.. This is collapsing all their plans of a permanent presence in middle east with very weak nations that cannot defend its sovereignty.

Once Syria liberate 90% of its territory. NATO will have to go. There will be no more ISIS
to justify their presence. and it will be impossible for them to justify their fly over for nothing.
the same is for IRAQ. This means that ending the violence , is the danger for NATO.. and not the other way. Without an enemy , in a zone of peace ,NATO presence is not justified.

So the Syrian war ,was originally working as intended by NATO until Russia came ,and began to
really fight ISIS and Alqaeda and strenghten Syria and IRAQ. Since both shares information with Russia and Russia provide logistics and weapons to IRAQ too.

If Russia did not moved to help Syria.. the war will have been endless.. Because after Syria defeated.. Israel will then invade anex all golan and 1/3 of Syria and move Palestine to Syria . and get rid of the non loyal terror factions to NATO. NATO will make sure,
that the war never ends. after that ,they could blame all the terror to Saudi Arabia and replace
that government.

TUrkey ,Saudi Arabia and Israel,Americans,France.. they all agree in removing Assad and disbanding Syria.. but at the same time they also have their own interest of the repartition
of Syrian lands.. Turkey will like to get all Northen Aleppo and Latakia..

but is very likely Turkey will also will be split ,because NATO does not tolerate Independent allies. and will remove Erdogan too is a matter of time. and the next map ,shows the most
likely new borders of Syria if Russia allowed Assad to be removed by force.

This is how the new middle east will look like if NATO not stopped by Russia.



So Turkey will be victim too ,of the same policies ,they played against Syria.
because Israel is aiming at weakening Turkey too. Americans and Jews do not like
Strong Competition and ERdowin will learn that the hard way.. they also will experience
their own Free Turkey army and "moderates" too. Americans will arms Kurds to weaken
Turkey and blackmail Erdogan and in the end get rid of him and replace it for a loyal puppet like Gullen.

Simply NATO use ISIS as a trojan horse to justify their invasions ,and anexation of lands.
First nato infiltrate ISIS in the territory they want to take.. and later they invade with the pretext to fight them..and after ISIS "defeated" , with a shake of hands and wink..they relocated to another zone and repeat. and the "liberated lands by NATO" given to puppets moderates ,that they fully control .
If all things goes perfect for NATO ,and Russia does not interfere, israel will take control of all the Oil and Gas of middle east and a pipeline to Europe to bypass Russia ,and Palestine moved to Syria. and the wars will be endless. This is how they will justify their presence. Later they will say.. they will take the oil fields because ISIS was selling the oil..

but the wars will never end.. thats the point. thats the goal . Russia in the other hand
is ending the wars by really fighting ISIS. and Alqaeda too. and streghtening its allies.
So the NATO plan was working as intended ,until 2015 when Russia comes to the aid of Assad.
That managed to handle the fight with a limited force .and not a full scale invasion.  oh wait
this is what Russia doing in Ukraine too.

Russia tactics are weak ,because cause civilians casualties ,but it can work ,and as long they
can freeze the conflict and with NATO and the terrorist taking the worse part and much bigger losses.

SAA losing ground in northern Hama again. All thanks to Putin's ceasefire that allowed bad guys to regroup, rearms, replenish. Putin could have ended the war last year by deploying ground forces. Now Putin is stuck in Syria until the day he kicks the bucket.

Turkey will probably have the whole border soon if the current pace is maintained.



SDF lose more territory.