The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Godric wrote:arrest warrant has been issued by Ukrainian authorities for the arrest of Russian minister Sergey Shoigu

http://112.ua/glavnye-novosti/gpu-soobshhila-o-podozrenii-ministru-oborony-rf-i-eshhe-17-vysokopostavlennym-chinovnika-rf-333542.html

Good luck getting Interpol to accept that one, let alone enforce it. Don't those idiots have any proper work to do?

JohninMK wrote:

Godric wrote:arrest warrant has been issued by Ukrainian authorities for the arrest of Russian minister Sergey Shoigu

http://112.ua/glavnye-novosti/gpu-soobshhila-o-podozrenii-ministru-oborony-rf-i-eshhe-17-vysokopostavlennym-chinovnika-rf-333542.html

Good luck getting Interpol to accept that one, let alone enforce it. Don't those idiots have any proper work to do?

John they don't realise they are making a laughing stock out of themselves and Ukraine in general ... rank amateurs at best

So legit intelligence reports suggest that the Hillary campaign will encourage a Ukrappy offensive (followed by a promise of military aid) on the Donbass as a October surprise, and regardless of the outcome media will spin it as Russian aggression and use that to bury the Trump campaign.

I've been hearing about this "Ukrainian Black Ledger" what's that all about?

Part of what Poro has been saying today. Some more at link

We will continue to demonstrate the fruit of our defense industry. Every citizen should see the hardware and weapons they are investing in by paying taxes," the president said. Two years of the armed conflict in Donbas "gave Ukrainian servicemen a unique experience, which will lay a foundation for our defense and our armed forces in the upcoming decades," Poroshenko said. "It is also clear who will be our enemy throughout that period; this is written in every strategic document pertaining to national security and defense," Poroshenko said.

An Interfax-Ukraine correspondent reported that the Ukrainian army would be supplied with Sukhoi Su-27 and Mikoyan MiG-29 planes, Mil Mi-8 MSB helicopters, T-80 and T-64BV tanks, BTR-80 and BTR-3DA armored personnel carriers, BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles, various types of artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers, Shilka self-propelled anti-aircraft weapons, new radar stations, special-purpose wheeled vehicles, etc.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/365354.html

Godric wrote:a HaHol convoy heading towards the border to Crimea ... look at the nick of their hardware ffs ... BTRs on heavy transports and trucks towing trucks ffs

Well, after seeing BTRs (mostly BTR-80s, but some BTR-70s too) in both convoys, two Gvozdika and one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers, plus one Uragan MLRS in that first convoy, I'm pretty sure that the Ukrainians are up to something

Here is a video (not the most up to date BTW) about the Ukrainian military buildups near Crimea and Donbass

magnumcromagnon wrote:So legit intelligence reports suggest that the Hillary campaign will encourage a Ukrappy offensive (followed by a promise of military aid) on the Donbass as a October surprise, and regardless of the outcome media will spin it as Russian aggression and use that to bury the Trump campaign.

That's almost guaranteed to happen, given that about the only thing Hillary has over Trump is rabid russophobia.

After a few days of relative lull, warnings of impending attack on Yasinovataya

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/ukrainian-army-readies-to-seize-donbass.html

Closely followed by the Russian 'you aren't going to trick us into action just to help Hillary beat Trump' response.

The Ministry of Defense announced surprise drills of combat readiness for the Armed Forces; affected are the Southern, Western and Central Military District, as well as the Northern Fleet and the main commands bases and the VDV, the Minister of Defense, said Army General Sergei Shoigu.

"Today, in accordance with the decision of the supreme commander of the armed forces of another sudden inspection started. The troops of the Southern part of the forces and means of the Western and Central military districts, the Northern Fleet, the High Command of Air Space Forces, command of the Airborne Troops from 07.00 MSK are on Full Alert", announced Shoigu at a meeting with senior agency staff.

The head of the Defense Ministry said that the inspections would allow, in particular, to assess the ability of the West and Central military districts to increase efforts in the south-western strategic direction. Monitoring the military action will be two working groups of the General Staff.

Testing will take place from the 25th to 31st of August. The minister directed that the attaches of foreign countries are to be informed of the military exercises.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/full-alert-putin-announces-surprise.html

Then we get 'rain stopped play'. But note my highlighted section, this is a new, not Minsk-like statement.

Last night, sudden, unexpected rain disrupted the UAF’s planned offensive in the Spartak-Yasinovataya sector, DPR Head Alexander Zakharchenko told journalists today. According to him, reports on the UAF’s intention to penetrate the Spartak-Yasinovataya zone were received yesterday. But rain came and Ukrainian vehicles were unable to drive on the sodden ground.

“Next time, we will appeal to the OSCE and issue emergency statements. Our intelligence is working very successfully and any actions undertaken by Ukraine are known to us. Therefore, we have decided that we will regard any actions as a provocation, and we will do the same at the airport and in Debaltsevo,” Zakharchenko stated.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/zakharchenko-uaf-attack-thwarted-by.html

An "enhanced" IED exploded near Zakharchenko's house this morning. There are contradictory reports about exactly what happened and how many terrorists were involved. What is certain is that one terrorist was found with his body parts scattered over a 50 metre radius. Unconfirmed is that a second man escaped and that a "shmel" may have been involved https://vk.com/mydonetsk?w=wall-83101862_26248

I bet Ukrops will call this incident as another "Provocation" by Russia

sepheronx wrote:Ukrainians trying to start a war by using terrorist tactic? Seems they suck at it.

No, they excel at it:

http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


Terrorism is not only blowing up cars and flying planes into buildings.

Odin of Ossetia wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Ukrainians trying to start a war by using terrorist tactic? Seems they suck at it.

No, they excel at it:

http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


Terrorism is not only blowing up cars and flying planes into buildings.

Agree. They are quite effectively sniping away at any economic target within range, giving themselves excellent artillery/drone practice.

Khepesh wrote:An "enhanced" IED exploded near Zakharchenko's house this morning. There are contradictory reports about exactly what happened and how many terrorists were involved. What is certain is that one terrorist was found with his body parts scattered over a 50 metre radius. Unconfirmed is that a second man escaped and that a "shmel" may have been involved https://vk.com/mydonetsk?w=wall-83101862_26248

It looks like this particular attack could have targeted Motorola rather than Zakharchenko. The article says that the bomb at Zakharchenko's earlier in the week was defused.

At 13:00 on August 25th, an explosion broke out in the center of Donetsk outside the home of the famous Sparta battalion commander Motorola and the deputy prime minister of the DPR. The explosion itself claimed the life of one so-far unidentified man, whose death ties into the remaining mystery of the placement of the device.

Much more at http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/photos-video-explosion-rocks-donetsk.html


When this occurs, my highlight, I wish that there was a tit-for-tat response. It was clearly very accurate and possibly in the dark at that time. They must have counter battery radar by now, its about time the Ukops got a demo of how effective it is every time they hit like this. Nothing like guaranteed, accurate incoming to unsettle the natives.

Doni Friday, August 26, 2016 - 11:33

The Oktyabrsky Rudnik mine located in the near-front Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk underwent shelling by the Ukrainian army early this morning, reported the head of the District Administration Ivan Adamets. We registered about 15 shell-hits on the territory of the Oktyabrsky Rudnik mine, the shelling began at 4:45 in the morning and was over in approximately 20 minutes. The territory of the mine sustained heavy damaged, said the official.  Adamets added that there were no casualties reported, the nearby houses weren't damaged either.

The reporting of the two incidents had become mixed up and caused a bit of confusion. The terrorist killed yesterday was blown up by his own normal bomb, the one on Monday was the "enhanced" device that seemed elaborate and apparently had a "shmel" attached to it, according to a witness who saw the device and noticed "shmel" tube. I think that was the fifth or sixth attempt on Zakharchenko, most, apart from furniture store attempt, do not get reported, and there was the booby trap in the car that wounded the daughter of Zakharchenko's secretary, at the time put down to "funny stuff" in Donetsk, but actually an attack by ukrops.

Khepesh wrote:The reporting of the two incidents had become mixed up and caused a bit of confusion. The terrorist killed yesterday was blown up by his own normal bomb, the one on Monday was the "enhanced" device that seemed elaborate and apparently had a "shmel" attached to it, according to a witness who saw the device and noticed "shmel" tube. I think that was the fifth or sixth attempt on Zakharchenko, most, apart from furniture store attempt, do not get reported, and there was the booby trap in the car that wounded the daughter of Zakharchenko's secretary, at the time put down to "funny stuff" in Donetsk, but actually an attack by ukrops.

Thanks. Given that instructions may have been issued from on high to poke the bear as much as possible before the US elections, Kiev may well have decided to go for infrastructure, as in the failed Crimea operation, but is obviously targeting those they think are most likely to cause a Russian reaction as top priority.

Personally I think they underestimate the adverse reaction in the West of the murder of a politician. Not a good precedent for themselves.

Might be wrong (again ) but it sounds little more than propaganda by Kiev to me. You know, the 'they turned our peace proposal down' type.

The sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire starting September 1, the State Security Service of Ukraine adviser said following the Trilateral Contact Group’s humanitarian subgroup meeting Friday.
(Sputnik) – In April 2014, the Ukrainian authorities launched a military operation to suppress independence militia in the eastern region of Donbass. In February 2015, the two sides reached a ceasefire deal after talks brokered by the leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine in the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

Key points of the Minsk agreements include a ceasefire, heavy weapons withdrawal from the line of contact in eastern Ukraine, constitutional reforms, including a decentralization of power in the country, and granting a special status to the Donbass region.

"Today the issue of ceasefire was discussed, in the presence of an OSCE [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe] representative upon the initiative of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, this especially concerns September 1… We hope that this process will begin on September 1, we saw that separate areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions heard us," Yuri Tandit said as broadcast on the 112 Ukraina channel.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160826/1044668165/donbass-ceasefire-september.html

Followed by

Moscow is calling for full and permanent ceasefire in Donbass by September 1, Russian envoy to the Trilateral Contact Group Boris Gryzlov said Friday. MINSK (Sputnik) – The Trilateral Contact Group, consisting of envoys and experts from Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), holds regular meetings in Minsk aimed at facilitating a diplomatic resolution to the armed conflict in Donbass. The group met once again earlier on Friday. The Ukrainian side said that the sides to the conflict agreed to a ceasefire starting September 1.

"There is very little time left before September 1 when educational process will begin at schools. We are calling on sides to the conflict to cease fire fully and permanently before the beginning of the school year," Gryzlov told reporters.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160826/1044671096/gryzlov-donbass-ceasefire-september.html


Then a totally different view when the proposal isn't even mentioned

Friday, August 26, 2016 - 12:24

The Ukrainian side in the political affairs subgroup hasn't made any proposals concerning creation of the road map of the peaceful settlement process during the Minsk talks, stated the DPR Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Natalya Nikonorova, commenting on Kiev’s statement about its alleged efforts made in this direction. Throughout the whole Minsk process Ukraine never provided any documents or proposals on this very road map, noted the Foreign Ministry head.

Earlier the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavel Klimkin stated that the Ukrainian side was allegedly working on "logic and order of the road map." Nikonorova reminded that representatives of the People's Republics and the Russian Federation, but not Ukraine, proposed versions of the road map and bills on the whole political package of issues earlier, however full discussion of these projects never took place in Minsk.

All the time the Ukrainian representatives used various arguments and means to evade even from the discussion of these documents, stated the Acting Foreign Minister of the DPR.

DONi News Agency

Looks like the excuses for being defeated, if they attack of course, are being practised/rolled out.

Saturday, August 27, 2016 - 13:20

The self-proclaimed Kiev authorities continue aggravating situation not only on the front-line, but on the political stage as well.

The number of tanks in Donbass has increased 20 times in two years, while the number of armored fighting vehicles has spiked more than tenfold, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister on Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, announced on Friday.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed the arms used by DPR and LPR army are Ukrainian or Soviet arms that were deployed in Ukraine before fighting began.

Citing figures from Ukraine’s military intelligence, however, Klympush-Tsintsadze’s ofifce estimated on Facebook that over the two-year conflict, Donbass forces had received a huge Russian technical reinforcement. Comparing figures for capabilities in the region near the start of hostilities in July 2014 with their estimated strength in August 2016, she accused Russia of “pumping resources into killing Ukrainians who want to live in freedom.”

According to the data from Ukraine’s General Staff, the number of tanks in Donbass has increased from 30 to 600 in just over two years, the number of armored fighting vehicles has increased from 124 to 1260, and the number of artillery and missile systems has increased from 110 to 1060.

http://dninews.com/article/drugged-ukraine-kiev-claims-dpr-and-lpr-heavy-vehicles-increase-tenfold

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the excuses for being defeated, if they attack of course, are being practised/rolled out.

Saturday, August 27, 2016 - 13:20

The self-proclaimed Kiev authorities continue aggravating situation not only on the front-line, but on the political stage as well.

The number of tanks in Donbass has increased 20 times in two years, while the number of armored fighting vehicles has spiked more than tenfold, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister on Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, announced on Friday.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed the arms used by DPR and LPR army are Ukrainian or Soviet arms that were deployed in Ukraine before fighting began.

Citing figures from Ukraine’s military intelligence, however, Klympush-Tsintsadze’s ofifce estimated on Facebook that over the two-year conflict, Donbass forces had received a huge Russian technical reinforcement. Comparing figures for capabilities in the region near the start of hostilities in July 2014 with their estimated strength in August 2016, she accused Russia of “pumping resources into killing Ukrainians who want to live in freedom.”

According to the data from Ukraine’s General Staff, the number of tanks in Donbass has increased from 30 to 600 in just over two years, the number of armored fighting vehicles has increased from 124 to 1260, and the number of artillery and missile systems has increased from 110 to 1060.

http://dninews.com/article/drugged-ukraine-kiev-claims-dpr-and-lpr-heavy-vehicles-increase-tenfold

If those numbers are correct, than Novorussian army have more armor and artillery than Ukrainian army. Considering, that Novorussian army is better trained, have more competent commanders and have higher moral, than i think it is an Ukrainian army, who is more afraid of Novorussian offensive than vice versa.

medo wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the excuses for being defeated, if they attack of course, are being practised/rolled out.

Saturday, August 27, 2016 - 13:20

The self-proclaimed Kiev authorities continue aggravating situation not only on the front-line, but on the political stage as well.

The number of tanks in Donbass has increased 20 times in two years, while the number of armored fighting vehicles has spiked more than tenfold, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister on Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, announced on Friday.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed the arms used by DPR and LPR army are Ukrainian or Soviet arms that were deployed in Ukraine before fighting began.

Citing figures from Ukraine’s military intelligence, however, Klympush-Tsintsadze’s ofifce estimated on Facebook that over the two-year conflict, Donbass forces had received a huge Russian technical reinforcement. Comparing figures for capabilities in the region near the start of hostilities in July 2014 with their estimated strength in August 2016, she accused Russia of “pumping resources into killing Ukrainians who want to live in freedom.”

According to the data from Ukraine’s General Staff, the number of tanks in Donbass has increased from 30 to 600 in just over two years, the number of armored fighting vehicles has increased from 124 to 1260, and the number of artillery and missile systems has increased from 110 to 1060.

http://dninews.com/article/drugged-ukraine-kiev-claims-dpr-and-lpr-heavy-vehicles-increase-tenfold

If those numbers are correct, than Novorussian army have more armor and artillery than Ukrainian army. Considering, that Novorussian army is better trained, have more competent commanders and have higher moral, than i think it is an Ukrainian army, who is more afraid of Novorussian offensive than vice versa.

Novorussia doesn't have even close to the same numbers when it comes to comparing the reserve depths. In "ATO" area, regarding active forces the partity is largeley observed on tanks, while there's a gap on APC's. But once Ukraine opens up its mothballed, idle stocks the picture becomes far more gloomy. For instance we still have no idea about the status of their T80's and T72. There should be around 230 T72's remaining from those stocks that weren't sold to 3rd World countries and about 300 T80's in various states of disrepair.

Then there's the bulk of shitty T64's that they have and that has been complicated to track. Normally after the two years Ukraine has lost about 400 of this category (destroyed, captured, broken) We know that about 100 have been cannibalized by Ugrainians. What we don't know is how the fuck is this going to happen, i mean how the Ukes are going to magically repair tanks they don't even have spares for...no, not T72's, but well T64's and T80's. And you can see the level of modernization/overhauling is pretty slow, mainly because for that T80's they're forced to recondition parts from other T80's.

Artillery and mech infantry brigades moved from Orenburg to Rostov oblast training areas to strengthen southern military district. VSN "reserve in depth"

medo wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the excuses for being defeated, if they attack of course, are being practised/rolled out.

Saturday, August 27, 2016 - 13:20

The self-proclaimed Kiev authorities continue aggravating situation not only on the front-line, but on the political stage as well.

The number of tanks in Donbass has increased 20 times in two years, while the number of armored fighting vehicles has spiked more than tenfold, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister on Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, announced on Friday.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed the arms used by DPR and LPR army are Ukrainian or Soviet arms that were deployed in Ukraine before fighting began.

Citing figures from Ukraine’s military intelligence, however, Klympush-Tsintsadze’s ofifce estimated on Facebook that over the two-year conflict, Donbass forces had received a huge Russian technical reinforcement. Comparing figures for capabilities in the region near the start of hostilities in July 2014 with their estimated strength in August 2016, she accused Russia of “pumping resources into killing Ukrainians who want to live in freedom.”

According to the data from Ukraine’s General Staff, the number of tanks in Donbass has increased from 30 to 600 in just over two years, the number of armored fighting vehicles has increased from 124 to 1260, and the number of artillery and missile systems has increased from 110 to 1060.

http://dninews.com/article/drugged-ukraine-kiev-claims-dpr-and-lpr-heavy-vehicles-increase-tenfold

If those numbers are correct, than Novorussian army have more armor and artillery than Ukrainian army. Considering, that Novorussian army is better trained, have more competent commanders and have higher moral, than i think it is an Ukrainian army, who is more afraid of Novorussian offensive than vice versa.

Remember these numbers are from the Ukrainians and as the article is titled they are obviously on drugs. Expect the real figures to be somewhere between 50-67% of those claimed totals.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

medo wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the excuses for being defeated, if they attack of course, are being practised/rolled out.

Saturday, August 27, 2016 - 13:20

The self-proclaimed Kiev authorities continue aggravating situation not only on the front-line, but on the political stage as well.

The number of tanks in Donbass has increased 20 times in two years, while the number of armored fighting vehicles has spiked more than tenfold, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister on Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, announced on Friday.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed the arms used by DPR and LPR army are Ukrainian or Soviet arms that were deployed in Ukraine before fighting began.

Citing figures from Ukraine’s military intelligence, however, Klympush-Tsintsadze’s ofifce estimated on Facebook that over the two-year conflict, Donbass forces had received a huge Russian technical reinforcement. Comparing figures for capabilities in the region near the start of hostilities in July 2014 with their estimated strength in August 2016, she accused Russia of “pumping resources into killing Ukrainians who want to live in freedom.”

According to the data from Ukraine’s General Staff, the number of tanks in Donbass has increased from 30 to 600 in just over two years, the number of armored fighting vehicles has increased from 124 to 1260, and the number of artillery and missile systems has increased from 110 to 1060.

http://dninews.com/article/drugged-ukraine-kiev-claims-dpr-and-lpr-heavy-vehicles-increase-tenfold

If those numbers are correct, than Novorussian army have more armor and artillery than Ukrainian army. Considering, that Novorussian army is better trained, have more competent commanders and have higher moral, than i think it is an Ukrainian army, who is more afraid of Novorussian offensive than vice versa.

Novorussia doesn't have even close to the same numbers when it comes to comparing the reserve depths. In "ATO" area, regarding active forces the partity is largeley observed on tanks, while there's a gap on APC's. But once Ukraine opens up its mothballed, idle stocks the picture becomes far more gloomy. For instance we still have no idea about the status of their T80's and T72. There should be around 230 T72's remaining from those stocks that weren't sold to 3rd World countries and about 300 T80's in various states of disrepair.

Then there's the bulk of shitty T64's that they have and that has been complicated to track. Normally after the two years Ukraine has lost about 400 of this category (destroyed, captured, broken) We know that about 100 have been cannibalized by Ugrainians.  What we don't know is how the fuck is this going to happen, i mean how the Ukes are going to magically repair tanks they don't even have spares for...no, not T72's, but well T64's and T80's. And you can see the level of modernization/overhauling is pretty slow, mainly because for that T80's they're forced to recondition parts from other T80's.

AFAIK Ukraine sold majority of their T-80 tanks to Pakistan in the nineties and rebuild remaining of T-80 into Oplots for Thailand. I think the rest were mostly canibalized for spares for Pakistan and Thailand. I think similar story went for T-72 tanks, which Ukraine mostly sold in Africa and other regions and remaining T-72 were mostly canibalized ones, which Ukraine is not able to bring into operational condition. Maybe few of them, but the rest will stay, where they are.

DPR amphibious assault training