The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Interesting POV


Monday, July 18, 2016 - 14:40

With the beginning of the heating season, the People's Republics proclaimed in Donbass will be in a much better position than Ukraine where the population is faceing a sharp increase in tariffs. Since prices have not risen in the LDPR, this model may be attractive to other Ukrainian regions.

It was stated by Alexander Dubinsky, the host of oligarch Igor Kolomoisky's TV channel "1 + 1", on his page in the social network. 'A few facts about the "reintegration" of Donbass. Or rather, why it will never happen. Tariffs for utility services for a standard 2-room apartment (with heating) are about 700 rubles per month, or $12. In Ukraine, they are about three times higher. Tariffs for gas for households are roughly about 2.5 UAH per cubic meter. In Ukraine, they are about three times higher.

So, never. Another process is much more probable. Namely, other regions joining Donbas. Look at all the screens of the country from the beginning of the heating season,' predicts Dubinsky.

DONi News Agency

I have noticed a large increase in the attacks on Lugansk territory, it seems these are attacks in the junction of the two republics to attack towards Debaltsevo. In addition to the attack of the 29 June, the following report is of interest.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/deserter-from-kiev-forces-tells-of-nato.html

Still, I am with Khepesh that the main blow will come in the southern front.

I added a new entry to my blog after a long time, after analyzing the reports for May-June

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2016/07/18/informe-resumen-guerra-de-desgaste-mayo-junio/

Summary if you don't want to google translate

Seems I was right on my estimate of 5.000 (five thousand) ukranian casualties for the spring campaing. DONI confirmed from ukranian sources that there were 3,500 wounded in ukranian hospitals for that period. Given a constant ratio of 3 wounded per 1 dead, that indeed confirms my estimate.
in english

https://dninews.com/node/5762

Since those 3,500 wounded are the serious cases and the crippled, if we add those with lesser wounds, the total may be higher still.

So since the intensity of the fighting has doubled, ukrops casualties in May-June are very likely another five thousand, to a total 10,000, or approximately 20% of the frontline strength. The recurring reports about ukranian units being understaffed do confirm this estimate.

Not only the ukros are running out of men, they are also likely running out of artillery shells. I estimate they have used 4,000 tons this year. The fact that the bombardments are increasing in number and the artillery is used increasingly more in proportion to mortars is another clue of a impending offensive. They will have to attack soon or else this attrition war will consume their ammo stocks and wear out their guns.

Another piece from Fortrus, sourced from Italy. This is a small extract

According to representatives of the DNI, the the situation in this summer of 2016 in the Donbass is reminiscent of the darkest weeks of the summer of 2014. The Ukrainian artillery at this time is bombing the area's cities, including Donetsk, a city of one million people.

Ukraine has concentrated almost all the available units of its military equipment at the demarcation line with the Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in addition to the troops, even "Grad" rocket launchers, which were originally near Chernobyl. It is a radioactive mechanism, and therefore dangerous to health of the crew.

According to representatives of the DNR, all this would be done in order to implement a "blitzkrieg:" the defeat of the Donbass Republics in a quick battle.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/donbass-july-2016-is-like-worst-days-of.html

Along with this, from Italian TV with subtitles.

Ispan wrote:I have noticed a large increase in the attacks on Lugansk territory, it seems these are attacks in the junction of the two republics to attack towards Debaltsevo. In addition to the attack of the 29 June, the following report is of interest.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/deserter-from-kiev-forces-tells-of-nato.html

Still, I am with Khepesh that the main blow will come in the southern front.

My conclusion from that article, with its comment about the proper preparation this time and heavy NATO presence, is that NATO are planing to use this assault and the way that NAF/Russia responds to it as an education exercise to feed back into their planning in other parts of the 'Russian Front'. Any local manpower loses in Ukraine are of course incidental and anyway, Ukraine is not in the Club.

Can you imagine their faces when they woke up to this news in Kiev? The end is coming for them. The risk of Trump getting in in November is too high, its do or die time now.

Pro-Trump campaigners have canceled a GOP pledge to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons during a committee platform meeting on national security, disturbing Republican hawks who have consistently called for a more aggressive anti-Russia posture.

On Monday, Republicans voted for the possible extension of existing anti-Russian sanctions, and the ability to provide authorities in Kiev with “appropriate [military] assistance.”

Earlier, many Republicans pushed for what they termed ‘lethal defensive weapons. The change to the amendment’s wording came at the hands of Trump delegates attending the GOP platform meeting in Cleveland. Trump-supporting delegates insisted that the language in the initial proposal be altered, and wrote a new amendment ruling out sending US weapons to Ukraine. The corrected bill was passed at the meeting, to the anger of Republican security leaders who subsequently accused the former reality-TV producer of betraying the world’s democracies.

“This is another example of Trump being out of step with GOP leadership and the mainstream in a way that shows he would be dangerous for America and the world,” Rachel Hoff, a GOP platform committee member claimed, following the move.

Trump has repeatedly said that radical Islamism and terrorism is a greater threat to Europe than Russia. He said he would “get along very well” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mike Flynn, foreign policy advisor to Trump, has suggested that Moscow and Washington join forces to counter Daesh in the Middle East. "Putin will be a reliable partner for certain things for the United States, yes. Absolutely. We need to have a relationship from the top to the bottom, same with China," Flynn told German magazine Spiegel Online.

http://sputniknews.com/us/20160719/1043246669/trump-lethal-weapons-ukraine.html

Don't get your hopes up, others will supply what Kiev needs by proxy. The orcs will still lose, just more on both sides will die. Figures.

auslander wrote:Don't get your hopes up, others will supply what Kiev needs by proxy. The orcs will still lose, just more on both sides will die. Figures.

I know but at least it wouldn't be open supply of the latest goodies. If there has to be a fight then get it over before the weapons and supplies increase still further, causing more mayhem.

Its all so sad, classic case of man's evil to man. They do say that the optimum size of a group of humans is about 150. Bigger than that and the 'leaders' decide that more is better and start fighting their neighbours. So it seems that 'we know what's best for you' is programmed into some and the rest of us just have to live with it.

Tens of thousands of deaths in Donbas on both sides with civilians caught in the crossfire. All this could have been prevented had Putin sent police to Kiev to put down Maidan.

Situation report from "Mage" for period 11 - 17 July.
Ukrops continue infiltrating into "grey zone" under covering fire of mortars and artillery. Their purpose is to push forward into the grey zone as far as possible and consolidate ground gained. During this week about 600 mercenaries of various nationalities have moved to the front, and according to various reports, 50 - 70 per day. These mercenaries are housed in the vacated rest and boarding houses and dormitories of abandoned factories. "Mage" does not say by name, but he is talking about Avdeevka. He says these mercenaries recently arriving are not defensive forces, as has been mostly the case for the last two years, but assault troops. He then says about good news, in that in the past the constraints of Minsk have only allowed specific counter battery fire on ukrops positions that are known to be firing on civilian areas or directly on VSN positions. Now VSN have been freed to initiate fire and hit ukrops attempting to hide in ravines and places they will hope to launch attack from, and that when ATO now complain that "seperatists began to fire" they are probably correct, and they are being damaged.

How long this increasing level can continue without something breaking I don't know. Around Donetsk are heavy thunderstorms and more forecast. Ukrops have a habit of making their more intensive bombardments under cover of thunder, and the still slightly curious action towards Debaltsevo more than a week ago was initiated under heavy thunder and lighting to try and mask what happens. I will repeat what I read on another report within the last hour that the action taking place at Spartak area at this moment looks like attempt at breakthru. I doubt it, but from something seemingly small and "normal" can come something bigger.

On military maps it shows ukrops shelling Kievsky district. The shells are in fact falling over Tochmash. In Oktyabr, also marked, the ukrops shells are falling along Signalnoi street and a house is reported destroyed by about five shells landing. Signalnoi is unfortunate as it is the street along the eastern edge of Oktyabr and facing Peski. Many residents were evacuated last year, but some remain. In total, 213 civilians have been killed in Kuibishevsky district, most in Oktyabr, since beginning of the war. The number of wounded, which will be much higher than deaths, is not released. Combined total of civilian deaths for Kuibishevsky, Kievsky and Petrovsky is 477 as reported today by head of Kuibishevsky district Ivan Prikhodko.

Maybe VSN will use the thunder too.

Yup, either 3-6000 or 36,000 Russian servicemen in Donbas and not a single photograph on social media or satellite of either them or their massive logistical chain. Must be the best camouflaged force in history. Or he is laying the groundwork for the forthcoming 'crushed by top class Russians not miners and farmers' storytale.

The occupation forces in Donbas have more combat tanks available than Germany and the United Kingdom taken together, Ukraine's envoy to the Trilateral Contact Group's security subgroup, the first Security Service (SBU) chief of independent Ukraine Yevhen Marchuk has said. "We know absolutely for sure that the other side has got 702 tanks of three modifications. These are modern tanks, ready for combat. There are more than 1,000 artillery systems of various systems there: cannon artillery, rocket-launching artillery, mortars, let alone other parameters. But these are the most important components of warfare that are, as a rule, related to offensive action or inflicting heavy losses onto the opposite side," he told Channel 5.

He also said that the militant army corps are under command of Russian professional military troops, including officers of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. Marchuk estimates there are from 3,000 to 6,000 Russian professional servicemen in occupied Donbas. "The two army corps created by Russia on these temporarily occupied territories – these are about 32,000 – 36,000 Russian troops who are well trained. And from the commandant of the corps, their deputies and troop commanders – all these are representatives of the Russian General Staff. This is between 3,000 to 6,000 career offers wearing no insignia, but they are professional Russian military men," he said.

Marchuk says that the Minsk talks and the Trilateral Contact Group on the settlement of the Donbas crisis are only tools of the Normandy Four [Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia], rather an independent instrument. "One should stress that the Minsk negotiations is a Normandy Four tool. As sometimes one can perceive it as something independent. It's not Minsk negotiators or the Trilateral Contact Group who decide but the leaders of the Normandy Four," he added.

Khepesh wrote:Situation report from "Mage" for period 11 - 17 July.  
He then says about good news, in that in the past the constraints of Minsk have only allowed specific counter battery fire on ukrops positions that are known to be firing on civilian areas or directly on VSN positions. Now VSN have been freed to initiate fire and hit ukrops attempting to hide in ravines and places they will hope to launch attack from, and that when ATO now complain that "seperatists began to fire" they are probably correct, and they are being damaged.

This is the first time they have released numbers like this, as you say, they clearly don't like taking their own medicine, it also seems to be spread over much of the ceasefire line.

Seven Ukrainian servicemen were killed in action (KIA's) and another 14 were wounded in action (WIA's) in the hostilities in Donbas in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian Presidential Administration spokesman for Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) affairs Andriy Lysenko said.

"Seven Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 14 suffered injuries in hostilities in the past 24 hours," Lysenko told a press briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday. The hostiles resumed attacks in the Luhansk sector, he said, adding that Popasna, Krymske and Stanytsia Luhanska were shelled in the past 24 hours. The enemy used mortars, grenade launchers and large-caliber machine-guns, he said.

The shelling of Horlivka, Zaitseve and Mayorsk continued in the Donetsk sector by use of heavy and light armaments, he said. A border checkpoint near Horlivka was shelled. Gunfire on Ukrainian army positions on the Svitlodarsk bulge intensified. Twenty mines were lobbed into areas near the town of Myronivske, where Ukrainian troops are stationed. Attacks resumed on approaches to the ruined Donetsk airport.

The truce was breached 22 times in the Mariupol sector. Positions in Maryinka and Krasnohorivka were shelled by mortars and attacked by small arms. Shelling incidents were also observed in Novotroyitske, Starohnativka and Hnutove, Lysenko said.


Which was followed by this



If the situation in the country's east continues to deteriorate, the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine may consider the imposition of martial law, NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov has said. "If these dangerous trends continue in Ukraine, we will take all necessary measures to protect the integrity of our country and safety of its citizens up to including into the agenda of the NSDC of the issue of the introduction of martial law," the NSDC's press service quoted Turchynov as saying on Tuesday.

He stressed that aggressive actions of the Russian troops lead to the overall deterioration of the situation in Ukraine's east. "The continuous shelling with the use by Russian aggressors of powerful weapons, modern means of guidance and correction of fire banned by the Minsk agreements has resulted in significant losses among our soldiers," the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council said.

Turchynov recalled that Ukraine lost seven soldiers over the past 24 hours, 14 soldiers were wounded.

Well they are Russian speaking
Does he score any points there

Looks like it isn't going to be as easy as they thought to top up their off-shore funds, sorry I meant to say Government finances, even at knock down prices.

No company has submitted a bid to participate in a tender to sell 99.567% of shares in public joint-stock company Odesa Port-Side Plant, the press service of the State Property Fund (SPF) said late on Monday. "Today, on July 18, 2016, the term for filing bids to participate in a tender to sell Odesa Port-Side Plant expired. As of 18:00 no bid was submitted. Due to the absence of the bids the fund has to declare a failure of the tender due to the absence of demand," the fund said.

The press service said that since the moment of the publication of the announcement to sell the plant potential investors had showed their interest. They signed relevant confidential agreements. After studying a package of documents and the situation in Ukraine and around the plant they said that they are not ready to take part in the tender. They gave the main reasons of their decision.

The debt to Group DF, lawsuits with Nortima, a restriction to repatriate dividends, the absence of tax benefits and preferences for investors, the price set too high in the light of the above-mentioned problems at the plant and general political and economic risks of the country caused many questions and doubts with investors. "All risks about the plant and Ukraine have their price, and if we cannot settle some of the problems or risks, they should be taken into account and reflected in the conditions and the sale and purchase agreement. I think that this should be done before the repeated tender jointly with a working group for privatization and involving the group of advisors who prepared the plant for privatization," SPF Head Ihor Bilous said.

He said that the proposals will be presented to the prime minister and Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers for consideration.

JohninMK wrote:Can you imagine their faces when they woke up to this news in Kiev? The end is coming for them. The risk of Trump getting in in November is too high, its do or die time now.

Pro-Trump campaigners have canceled a GOP pledge to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons during a committee platform meeting on national security, disturbing Republican hawks who have consistently called for a more aggressive anti-Russia posture.

On Monday, Republicans voted for the possible extension of existing anti-Russian sanctions, and the ability to provide authorities in Kiev with “appropriate [military] assistance.”

Earlier, many Republicans pushed for what they termed ‘lethal defensive weapons. The change to the amendment’s wording came at the hands of Trump delegates attending the GOP platform meeting in Cleveland. Trump-supporting delegates insisted that the language in the initial proposal be altered, and wrote a new amendment ruling out sending US weapons to Ukraine. The corrected bill was passed at the meeting, to the anger of Republican security leaders who subsequently accused the former reality-TV producer of betraying the world’s democracies.

“This is another example of Trump being out of step with GOP leadership and the mainstream in a way that shows he would be dangerous for America and the world,” Rachel Hoff, a GOP platform committee member claimed, following the move.

Trump has repeatedly said that radical Islamism and terrorism is a greater threat to Europe than Russia. He said he would “get along very well” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mike Flynn, foreign policy advisor to Trump, has suggested that Moscow and Washington join forces to counter Daesh in the Middle East. "Putin will be a reliable partner for certain things for the United States, yes. Absolutely. We need to have a relationship from the top to the bottom, same with China," Flynn told German magazine Spiegel Online.

http://sputniknews.com/us/20160719/1043246669/trump-lethal-weapons-ukraine.html

I'm beginning to think Trump may actually win.

From the Kiev Post

The establishment, elite, and Dems, and Kiev cronies are running scared. I think they see the handwriting on the wall.



Reno Domenico: Impressions of Day 1 of the Republican National Convention

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/reno-domenico-impressions-of-day-1-of-the-republican-national-convention-419061.html

Further to the earlier post about the Ukops moving a Tochka to within 10Km of the front. Gunship has just put this up in the Yemen thread and I thought it might be relevant here as well so I have ripped it across. Hope you don't mond.

I can imagine a infantry camp with lots of tents and cassette warhead. Say on area of 2-3ha you can set many tents right and if attack if before dawn likely all are asleep...

after wiki:
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Точка_(тактический_ракетный_комплекс)

9Н123Ф — high-explosive fragmentation WARHEAD focused action, the rockets 9М79Ф (9M79-1F). MS mass 482 kg, the mass of explosives TG-20 — 162,5 kg, number of pieces — 14.5 thousand Square defeat — 2-3 ha. When approaching the target missile makes a complete rotation (angle of pitchto ensure that the angle between the charge target is close to 90° for the most efficient use of energy of explosion of the warhead. For the same axis-of-charge high-explosive WARHEAD 9Н123Ф deployed relative to the longitudinal axis of the rocket at an angle. Air burst WARHEAD 9Н123Ф made at the height of 20 meters above the surface to maximize the area affected;
9Н123К — cluster WARHEAD part of the missiles 9М79К (9M79-1K) containing 50 shrapnel combat elements 9Н24 (a mass of 7.45 kg, the weight of EXPLOSIVES type A-IX-20 — 1.45 kg, 316 fragments). MS mass 482 kg, the number of fragments — 15.8 thousand to Undermine the Central charge and the opening of the warhead is initiated by a LoJack type 9Э326 at the height of 2250 m. the Area of damage is 3.5—7 ha. Designed such warhead to engage manpower and soft-skin vehicles located in the open countryside;
9Н123Ф-R (9Н123Ф-P2, 9Н123Ф-P3) — high-explosive WARHEAD with passive radar homing 9Н215 in the composition of anti-radar missiles 9М79Р (9М79ФР, 9M79-1ФР), with RF type 9M79M or 9M79-1, in preparation for the start was set the frequency of the radiation target, lesion area up to 2 hectares. the development started in 1971;

Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

Khepesh, what's your take on the opinions of Alexander Zhuchkovsky? Posted here

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1460478.html

I could read it in Google translate and sounded too defeatist. Yes, I would agree the NAF are battle weary and demoralized for not being able to fight back, but that would change once they are given free rein. Also, he basically said they were losing the war and about to be cut in half when the Russians intervened, when I still firmly believe that was not the case, the Ukranians were in their last gasp and had set themselves up for a disaster, in my view Russian help only precipitated events.

I no longer pay attention to Strelkov, I do admit Zhuchkovsky makes some good points I already suspected, but come on, the Ukranian army is a joke. They can attack but they are no better off than they were in 2015. Tactically they might be not as bad, but their leadership is awful and their material superiority keeps eroding.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine recorded more than 750 explosions in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions between July 18 and 19, according to a report released Wednesday.

VIENNA (Sputnik) — The mission said it had noted an increase in ceasefire violations in the turbulent east Ukrainian provinces, with 600 explosions detected in Donetsk alone. Some 400 of them were recorded by the SMM camera in the strategic village of Shyrokyne on the Black Sea.

"In Lugansk region, the SMM noted an increase in ceasefire violations recorded, including more than 150 explosions, primarily near government-controlled Lobacheve and Stanytsia Luganska," the report reads.

The mission added it had observed eight multiple rocket launchers, a towed howitzer and two self-propelled howitzers in government-controlled areas, in violation of the withdrawal lines.

Last year, the Ukrainian armed forces and pro-independence militias in eastern Ukraine agreed a peace deal, which stipulated a ceasefire and creation of a buffer zone along the line of contact, including withdrawal of heavy artillery from the area.

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160720/1043369704/osce-ukraine-explosions-donbass.html

Khepesh wrote:Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KncDTHrl4xA

Are they preparing for final assault to Dniepr ?

From burbuja.info

#BREAKING Urgent message from militia NAF are advancing in the south westbound #ukraine #nato #eu #donbas #krieg
*

It's just a local counterattack, but they are hitting back, it can be seen as the tide starting to turn.

Ispan wrote:Khepesh, what's your take on the opinions of Alexander Zhuchkovsky? Posted here

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1460478.html

I could read it in Google translate and sounded too defeatist. Yes, I would agree the NAF are battle weary and demoralized for not being able to fight back, but that would change once they are given free rein. Also, he basically said they were losing the war and about to be cut in half when the Russians intervened, when I still firmly believe that was not the case, the Ukranians were in their last gasp and had set themselves up for a disaster, in my view Russian help only precipitated events.

I no longer pay attention to Strelkov, I do admit Zhuchkovsky makes some good points I already suspected, but come on, the Ukranian army is a joke. They can attack but they are no better off than they were in 2015. Tactically they might be not as bad, but their leadership is awful and their material superiority keeps eroding.

Zhuchkovsky's rebutal of Shchemelinin's comments on what he originally wrote are correct, for instance there are not going to be 500 thousand volunteers from within Donbass suddenly appear in a crisis or over a longer period of time joining VSN. On the point of terminology, it is technically the Peoples Militia, and it all started as a militia. But to suggest that because it is "only" a militia, and therefore some pale shadow of a real army, is simply semantics and belongs in the cesspit of "partners" as it is part of  a deliberate mask. Whatever name is used, they are the armed forces of a territory known as Novorossiya, therefore vooruzhennye sili Novorossii - VSN, literally, if not by official name. Then on what Zhukovsky says is not wrong, even if it sounds gloomy, when applied to "reality", but he is not writing about reality, and I hope the difference is seen, and on his "reality", which at face value only is reality as it is presented, is a correct assesment. But it becomess a difficult area, and many do not touch it, because mental contortions have to be engaged in to say this or that when what is meant is that and this and something else. A comment under the Chervonec article is interesting, and excepting Kallingrad, I could put in a slightly different way and say that at this point in time, Russia stretches from Vladivostok to Donetsk. You see how disscussion is hampered by "reality" and reality, and that to say some things is difficult, or even to say which "reality" is reality, or the other way around.

I read this several times and I think it makes sense, and that Zhuchkovsky is right and wrong at the same time, but there is nothing to worry about despite some nonsense in complying with Minsk, and we see this begins to break.