Brazil Political Crisis

Rousseff was a below average president. That's the reality. Socialism is a socioeconomic tragedy.
The countries that suffer this mental cancer can never be sovereign. Modi is doing a good job.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Guys what the actual fu**? BRICS this and that...There's only two issue with Brazil. They had a very poor investment level. That they tried to get better, while having a "socialist" Gov. Meanwhile, they were in the middle of Subprimes Cyclon, that they put under the rug by simply Having higher IR and counting on that to cover the expense. The problem is that those IR pushed the credit boom (for housing for instance) up which in return started collapsing slowly. Enter the oil glut which sent every thing down. Main brazilian exports were outmatched with main Brazilian imports. It's the worsening of the terms of the trade that makes for a trifecta of a recession. China has NOTHING to do with the US fucking up everyone with "debt oil" disease. And all that while they can print their own monkey money.

China has EVERYTHING to do with commodity prices and dependent countries basing their economic outputs on continued Chinese growth. Credit bubbles expand because they think the China commodities gravy train will continue for years to come. When it doesn't come and economic projections get thrown out of the window what is left is a tide of unrepayable debt. US fracking and their backdoor deals with Saudi Arabia effect oil but that is only the tip of the iceberg of how deep China screwed the BRICS.

Vladimir79 wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Guys what the actual fu**? BRICS this and that...There's only two issue with Brazil. They had a very poor investment level. That they tried to get better, while having a "socialist" Gov. Meanwhile, they were in the middle of Subprimes Cyclon, that they put under the rug by simply Having higher IR and counting on that to cover the expense. The problem is that those IR pushed the credit boom (for housing for instance) up which in return started collapsing slowly. Enter the oil glut which sent every thing down. Main brazilian exports were outmatched with main Brazilian imports. It's the worsening of the terms of the trade that makes for a trifecta of a recession. China has NOTHING to do with the US fucking up everyone with "debt oil" disease. And all that while they can print their own monkey money.

China has EVERYTHING to do with commodity prices and dependent countries basing their economic outputs on continued Chinese growth.  Credit bubbles expand because they think the China commodities gravy train will continue for years to come.  When it doesn't come and economic projections get thrown out of the window what is left is a tide of unrepayable debt. US fracking and their backdoor deals with Saudi Arabia effect oil but that is only the tip of the iceberg of how deep China screwed the BRICS.

Vlad no disrespect, but the major issue with the Brazilian economy is its reliance to US market for export and import. Brazil in two years has lost about 37% of its export output to the US and it has been forced to rely on...China.

The import sheet has goten worse. It's rougly a 100 billion trade note (with the fiscal fraud to the US).

Brazil biggest company, which tanked in recent years...is PetroBras. We can go on and on about the Top 20 or Brazilian companies and you'll see that they're all hit by the US double whamy. They're all Either banking of Commodity businesses. Most interesting case is ITAU. It's been a decade of nightmares since the Subprime crisis for them. But then again, China screws countries the "other side of the world, while the US (biggest trade partner for Brazil) jerks them off? Let's not talk like this. China itself is getting whammed by specualtion crisis and mismanagment.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Rousseff was a below average president. That's the reality. Socialism is a socioeconomic tragedy.
The countries that suffer this mental cancer can never be sovereign. Modi is doing a good job.

The cause for recession isn't socialism. It's deregulation in both Financial Market and isiders deals on the Commodity Market. The complete opposite of "Socialism".

On another level. Brazil's debt is about 40% GDP... It has been in those waters like forever.

kvs wrote:I am afraid Latin America is going to be a Yankee toilet for as long as Uncle Scam is around.   BRICS is some acronym
concocted by a NATO entity.   The real core of BRICS is RIC.   Even South Africa is a dubious "partner".  

A huge opportunity was wasted in the first decade of this century. Commodities were at record prices and the US was stranded in Afghanistan and Irak and hardly had time or resources to pay much attention to South America.

People fixate on the false dichotomy, in this context, of capitalism and socialism. South America needs economic nationalism
aka protectionism. The model is Japan and South Korea. State subsidy for domestic industry is fully kosher. The Puritan neo-liberal
"market capitalism" dogma is total sh*t designed to enable foreign capital easy access and total control. This foreign capital
is interested in wringing out every last drop of profit and shipping it offshore. It not interested in nurturing local industry and
economy in general. The notion that there will be some sort of development trickle down is utterly detached from reality and
is outright certifiably insane.

Man, it looks like Brazil is gonna go through it's own Yeltsin era soon.

AlfaT8 wrote:Man, it looks like Brazil is gonna go through it's own Yeltsin era soon.

Brazil went through Eltsin-era before Eltsin knew he had an era. 1980-1988 was fun in Brazil. Most of the crap you see in movies like Cidade de Deus or "Bope" series actually have happened during the "democracy Era". One of the factors that destroyed Brazil in the 80's was the fact it was dejected from the inter-banking lending mechanism. What sparked Dilma's impeachment, was...that the Parliament stopped her from ... borrowing money. Money that will have to be borrowed by the next government ANYWAY!.

It's the same old song in Brazil. That's why I don't get this talk about Brics.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:Man, it looks like Brazil is gonna go through it's own Yeltsin era soon.

Brazil went through Eltsin-era before Eltsin knew he had an era. 1980-1988 was fun in Brazil. Most of the crap you see in movies like Cidade de Deus or "Bope" series actually have happened during the "democracy Era". One of the factors that destroyed Brazil in the 80's was the fact it was dejected from the inter-banking lending mechanism.  What sparked Dilma's impeachment, was...that the Parliament stopped her from ... borrowing money. Money that will have to be borrowed by the next government ANYWAY!.

It's the same old song in Brazil. That's why I don't get this talk about Brics.

BRIC(S) was coined by a Goldman Sachs flunkie in 2001. Back in 2001 I did not see any BRIC-like entity.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Vlad no disrespect, but the major issue with the Brazilian economy is its reliance to US market for export and import. Brazil in two years has lost about 37% of its export output to the US and it has been forced to rely on...China.

The import sheet has goten worse. It's rougly a 100 billion trade note (with the fiscal fraud to the US).

Brazil biggest company, which tanked in recent years...is PetroBras. We can go on and on about the Top 20 or Brazilian companies and you'll see that they're all hit by the US double whamy. They're all Either banking of Commodity businesses. Most interesting case is ITAU. It's been a decade of nightmares since the Subprime crisis for them. But then again, China screws countries the "other side of the world, while the US (biggest trade partner for Brazil) jerks them off? Let's not talk like this. China itself is getting whammed by specualtion crisis and mismanagment.

The reason Brasil losts its export output was because the commodity bubble burst. China created that bubble and popped it all on its own. Every country that relies on commodities is suffering because of their reckless debt binge. China was the enabler, suckered these countries into thinking they were the new rising tide so they based their budgets on continued expansion and then... bubble popped. Their outputs aren't worth half of what they were 5 years ago. China isn't done yet either, they will be dumping in mass quantities soon.

Vladimir79 wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Vlad no disrespect, but the major issue with the Brazilian economy is its reliance to US market for export and import. Brazil in two years has lost about 37% of its export output to the US and it has been forced to rely on...China.

The import sheet has goten worse. It's rougly a 100 billion trade note (with the fiscal fraud to the US).

Brazil biggest company, which tanked in recent years...is PetroBras. We can go on and on about the Top 20 or Brazilian companies and you'll see that they're all hit by the US double whamy. They're all Either banking of Commodity businesses. Most interesting case is ITAU. It's been a decade of nightmares since the Subprime crisis for them. But then again, China screws countries the "other side of the world, while the US (biggest trade partner for Brazil) jerks them off? Let's not talk like this. China itself is getting whammed by specualtion crisis and mismanagment.

The reason Brasil losts its export output was because the commodity bubble burst.  China created that bubble and popped it all on its own.  Every country that relies on commodities is suffering because of their reckless debt binge.  China was the enabler, suckered these countries into thinking they were the new rising tide so they based their budgets on continued expansion and then... bubble popped.  Their outputs aren't worth half of what they were 5 years ago.  China isn't done yet either, they will be dumping in mass quantities soon.      

Nope. It is because the Real is pegged to the USD. And the commodity bubble burst because Brazil couldn't flex down the USD compared to the Real, while having to follow suit. The import levels need to be maintained, because of that linkage, therefore, income goes down, expenses go up. You tie yourself to a raging bull, it's going to kill you. Maybe China is the red flag to the raging bull, but the raging bull is the one that kills you.
The linkage between Debt, IR's and Debt service isn't new in Brasil. The New Real was established as a mean to stop the chronic overspending in Brazil. Mostly because the country was and still is lagging behind in terms of investment (public private). The Budget in Brazil has been an running joke, nothing to do with China. Everything to do with chronic underspending and corruption since Brazil is a moderna state.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Nope. It is because the Real is pegged to the USD. And the commodity bubble burst because Brazil couldn't flex down the USD compared to the Real, while having to follow suit. The import levels need to be maintained, because of that linkage, therefore, income goes down, expenses go up. You tie yourself to a raging bull, it's going to kill you. Maybe China is the red flag to the raging bull, but the raging bull is the one that kills you.

Kotemore, Brazilian currency was unpegged to the USD back in 1999. What you are describing is what happened to Argentina in 2001/2002.

So would you say that Austerity was a problem then?

Deficit of Brazil in 2015 was 10% of GDP and year before was over 6%. That's pretty high.

sepheronx wrote:So would you say that Austerity was a problem then?

Deficit of Brazil in 2015 was 10% of GDP and year before was over 6%. That's pretty high.

Rampant corruption is Brazil's problem. For all the hate poured on Putin, he really did clean Russia up
after the toilet it was thrown into by Yeltsin's US-backed regime. Brazil is more like Ukraine and the oligarchy
calls all the shots. The impeached leader did not have the sort of real power needed to govern. The analogy
with Ukraine is actually very accurate, the legislative branches are stuffed with compradors who serve
their oligarch masters and not the country. Khodorkovsky had similar plans for the Duma.

At least Khodorkovsky can't do shit while hiding in UK. These Brazilian oligarchs are right there as you state in the Senate. Oh well.

Svyatoslavich wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Nope. It is because the Real is pegged to the USD. And the commodity bubble burst because Brazil couldn't flex down the USD compared to the Real, while having to follow suit. The import levels need to be maintained, because of that linkage, therefore, income goes down, expenses go up. You tie yourself to a raging bull, it's going to kill you. Maybe China is the red flag to the raging bull, but the raging bull is the one that kills you.

Kotemore, Brazilian currency was unpegged to the USD back in 1999. What you are describing is what happened to Argentina in 2001/2002.

Nope they didn't the Real is still shadow pegged. And unfortunately you can see the results within two years or export/import shock.

The coup in Brazil had the hands of of US and now there is proof of that:

https://www.rt.com/news/343390-brazil-rousseff-impeachment-us/


This just makes my blood boil, how can one country let this happen to itself, I just wish, pray, hope this happen to a US ally.

I know that the Russian Army is studying, these kinds of things, the question I have for all of you, is how would you deal with something like this? Say you are a leader of a country that is the target of something like this, what would you do to prevent from this happening?

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Nope. It is because the Real is pegged to the USD. And the commodity bubble burst because Brazil couldn't flex down the USD compared to the Real, while having to follow suit. The import levels need to be maintained, because of that linkage, therefore, income goes down, expenses go up. You tie yourself to a raging bull, it's going to kill you. Maybe China is the red flag to the raging bull, but the raging bull is the one that kills you.
The linkage between Debt, IR's and Debt service isn't new in Brasil. The New Real was established as a mean to stop the chronic overspending in Brazil. Mostly because the country was and still is lagging behind in terms of investment (public private). The Budget in Brazil has been an running joke, nothing to do with China. Everything to do with chronic underspending and corruption since Brazil is a moderna state.

The raging bull was let loose in the China shop... ironically the bull was China.  Brazil relied on China for continued purchase of commodities and credit expansion.  When China didn't buy at expected levels, exports not only decreased, it lowered the value of input on everything they sold.  FDI decreased because there is no longer a need for more commodity production to expand.    This goes the world over.  The currency crisis last year was also caused by China and played its part in lowering commodity prices.  China was destined to be the new reserve currency rivaling the USD, they get added to the IMF basket of currencies but all the money goes back to USD because China is suddenly no longer the engine of global growth.  You are quoting a symptom of a global contagion, which is the collapse of Chinese demand.

Leaked Tapes Expose Coup Plot Against Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff Read more: http://sputniknews.com/latam/20160524/1040126596/dilma-temer-petrobras-coup-impeachment.html#ixzz49Y0WALx6

sepheronx wrote:Leaked Tapes Expose Coup Plot Against Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff  Read more: http://sputniknews.com/latam/20160524/1040126596/dilma-temer-petrobras-coup-impeachment.html#ixzz49Y0WALx6

Say it ain't so!

and the final domino falls, never ignore your people

play her off keyboard cat!

NationalRus wrote:and the final domino falls, never ignore your people

play her off keyboard cat!

Whose people? The guys doing the same? If you really think there's a sense of justice in this mess, you clearly have to go to Specsavers.

justice? nah, somebody doing the same is not a argument for absolution of your own wrongdoing , just a corrupt unpopular leftist that got what was coming for here and what the future brings time will tell might be lessons will be learned, maybe only to some extend, maybe not at all