S-400 SAM for India

The point that Indian intel is trying to make is - in the absence of 40N6, Brahmos ALCM and ground based Brahmos can be used to target Chinese SAM and IRBMs inside Tibet.

Brahmos is a mach 3 missile... even S-300s can shoot down Brahmos... why do you think S-400 would need a long range missile to engage a low or high flying supersonic missile?

TOR could take it down too...

But the same tactics that you defined, which can be employed by S-400 operators against Brahmos can also be employed against any hypersonic cruise missile as well. Isn't it?

Manouvering hypersonic missiles are more difficult to intercept and will likely take time before interception of such targets can be assured some of the time.

Ok. Then this will be a cause of concern for India. Without 77N6-N and 77N6-N1, India will not be able to carry out exo atmospheric intercept. Especially when China decides to target locations across India using their ICBMs and SLBMs.

If you want to intercept ICBMs then you need either S-500 or Nudol.... but your best defence against Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs is to stop listening to US propaganda.

Why? 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 should be able to intercept ICBMs.

77N6 missiles are S-500 missiles.

It's not about US propaganda. You can check satellite images yourself and you will notice that China has increased the number of IRBMs deployed in Tibet.

And the US and Australia complaining to China about the rights of people in Tibet and now India getting friendly with Australia and the US should be ignored?

While they are in charge in Tibet they can put anything there that they like... or do you think you need the permission of other countries what you do in Kashmir?

Of Russia needs US permission to put S-400 batteries in the Crimea?

Mountainous areas are the worst place where to send a S-400. It's much better to have tens of pantsirs or tor with many Igla-S

There is not much value in putting them close to the launch position of the IRBMs unless you have a spy that will give you prior warning of a launch and you operate your S-400s 24/7 in anticipation of a launch...

There are obviously going to be targets they will point their IRBMs at.... that is where you put your S-400s... and Tors and Pantsirs to protect them from the direct attempts to take out the S-400 batteries.

I suspect it will take a long time to Russia to sell their export version... probably only in the 30's.

And that assumes the US doesn't shit bricks over their exports and demands export restrictions... and China will likely buy some too.

But even in mountainous regions, Chinese AWACS and satellites will pick up any Indian cruise, ballistic missile launch and send the details of the flight profile of these missiles to their S-400 and HQ-9 regiments.

If they could detect attacks so efficiently why would Russia be building them a new early warning system for ballistic weapons... and do you think a system that detects ballistic weapons (IRBM, SLBM, ICBM) from South Korea, Japan, or the US from continental US or the Pacific Ocean or Arctic Ocean and other Seas they operate SSBNs in...

Low flying cruise missiles are much harder to spot and defeat... even with the right missiles... ask Saudi Arabia... that attack cost them billions of dollars...

Probably only the satellite guided version of the Kh-25 can carry out such an attack. But India operates only the Kh-25MP (anti radar) that has a range of just 40 kms. So Indian aircraft will have to enter deep inside Tibet to fire these missiles.

They have newer weapons... even Kh-59MK has a range of 285km in the export model... the anti ship model could be use against land based systems.

Of course the point is that as has been shown in Syria... air defences tend to be more effective than even the strongest air power... and that is with their hands tied... if they started shooting down Israeli aircraft or ships launching attacks things would either stop immediately because it is too expensive to continue or it would need some serious escalation... neither of which would actually benefit Syria, because even if they stopped they would likely double down in some other way to attack Syrian and Syrian forces...

If you check the above posts, MINDSTORM has clarified that 40N6 has already entered large scale production and China has also received the export variant of the 40N6.

40N6 is supposed to be the top end S-400 missile with extended range and performance... it is supposed to be able to reach targets at 185km altitude and also targets at 400km horizontal range... presumably using control technology developed for the S-500 which can reach targets at 600km but actually intended for engaging targets at high altitudes including low flying satellites and hypersonic platforms and missiles operating at the fringe of the atmosphere... as well as incoming ICBM and SLBM warheads...

To the best of my knowledge 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 are the only two exo atmospheric missiles in the S-400 system. So if India is not receiving the 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 missiles, it begs the question what are the exo atmospheric interception missiles that India might receive.

77N6-N and 77N6-N1 were designed for the S-400, they can also be used by the S-500.

Just by the missile designation you can see they are not based on the original S-400 missile family... just the same as the S-300Vs 9M82 and 9M83 missiles tells you they are not related.... the old S-300PMU missiles are 5V55 codenamed, while S-300PMU1 are 48N6E and S-300PMU2 are 48N6E2, and 48N6E... 40N6 is S-400 and the other two missiles associated with S-400 are actually 9M96... or S-350 missiles.

The 77N6 missiles are S-500... which is not to say 40N6 missiles wont be part of S-500.... I rather suspect S-500 will be a combination of S-400 and S-500 missiles and radars.

It is interesting that Wiki suggests India bought SA-12 in 2006 already, but according to SIPRI that is not right... it only mentions two purchases of Tunguska and the current order for S-400...

I hope obviously that India and China don't go to war, but if it happens, it will not be a ICBM SLBM war.

Hoping they are not that stupid... they deal with the west all the time and it is the west that likes to use violence and murder to impose their will without discussion... they have every reason to not do it that way...

(1) 77N6 and 77N6-N1 are being designed for the S-500 but they can also be used by the S-400?

Not used by S-400... they could be attached to an S-400 battery like a TOR or Pantsir battery could be attached to an S-400 battery to protect it from stand off munitions.

They are S-500 missiles.

I seem to recall that the biggest S-400 missile... the 400km one can also engage targets at 185km altitude which makes it exo-atmospheric, but not 100% sure and really not sure why you thing it is so important...

(2) In the absence of the 77N6 and 77N6-N1 missiles, Indian S-400 won't have any exo atmospheric interception missiles, isn't it?

Probably true, but don't you realise that would make the problem mutual because China has S-400s as well...

Russian journalists from Russia Beyond who I spoke with, told me India never purchased any S-300.

Yes, which is why I don't really trust wiki anyway...

Because if you are trying to hit an incoming warhead once it has already entered the airspace, you might be able to hit it but the warhead or whatever remains of it will simply fall at some other place causing major collateral damages.

So hitting it outside the atmosphere will vapourise it to a fine powder, but hitting it inside the atmosphere will just bump it slightly off course and it will just land somewhere else... fully intact and doing normal damage...

Let's say Pakistan, China targets Delhi with their ICBMS, IRBMs. India manages an endo atmospheric intercept of these incoming warheads. What will happen is these warheads will not hit Delhi but will fall somewhere near Delhi causing huge damages. However, if you can destroy these warheads in space (exo-atmospheric) then there is zero possibility of damage on the ground.

OK lets say they do... are they going to launch one missile and just wait and see if India can shoot it down and then wait for a response?

If they do launch a missile attack it will be a large volume attack intended to overwhelm and defeat your ability to reply... they will try to hit airfields and ports and major army bases, but also the political head of India in a huge mass attack. There is no way one or two S-400 batteries can stop that... and no way Chinese S-400 batteries could stop your response... hundreds of millions dead and the US overjoyed because two main potential rivals have just destroyed themselves and it barely cost them anything... in fact they can probably make money in the rebuild...

How important EXO-Atmospheric interception is can be judged from the fact that A-235 Nudol is dedicated completely to exo atmospheric interception. In this endeavor A-235 will be backed up by the S-500.

Nudol and the A-235 are part of the Moscow based ABM system that has been in operation for decades and have never been intended as a SAM in any sense.

They use nuclear weapons as a matter of course because of the nature of the missiles they are intercepting so hitting them higher up and further away is a good thing.

Even the US is putting a whole lot of emphasis on Exo Atmospheric interception. That's why the Ground Based Midcourse System is dedicated to exo atmospheric interception.

They have no choice... that system is located in Europe and will be located in Asia and in the arctic ocean on AEGIS class cruisers... in those locations any ICBM or SLBM missile they intercept will be midcourse... ie outside the atmosphere... if such weapons flew through the atmosphere all the way to their targets they would have a much shorter range due to atmospheric drag.

PAC-3 and THAAD do not have exo atmospheric interception capability.

They have zero capability against much more than super Scud missiles.... they were never intended or expected to take on SLBMs or ICBMs.

Agreed. Not sure why he thinks that. Maybe he meant at BVR, Indian fighter jets will not be able to lock onto the J-20. But even that would probably be a shallow explanation.

Likely being conservative...

According to Indian "intel", Indian S-400 ADS system will have a version of 92N6A radar instead of export variant 92N6E.

They will likely get a better version but it wont be the same one the Russians use...

Russia tends to offer better performing equipment to India, though there is not a lot of respect for this given it seems...

Not many other countries would lease a modern SSN, or indeed allow you to take part in developing a heavy 5th gen fighter project...

Probably won't vaporize but at least the warhead will not fall in friendly territory despite the intercept.

You do know the closing speed between an outgoing missile and an incoming target will be enormous... any contact at all will lead to enormous damage of both items... a HE warhead will likely not survive the speed the missile is flying at even with a near miss that puts holes in the incoming target... the stress of moving through the atmosphere with multiple holes in its structure and most incoming weapons will break up and tumble and rapidly shed speed.

Anything with a large HE payload would likely explode and anything with a nuclear payload will likely break and fail to detonate even on impact with the ground.

A nuclear warhead is like a precision machine and bashing its side with a supersonic sledgehammer is more likely to break it and prevent it from ever exploding properly than to set it off.

I'm not suggesting that midcourse defence is perfect.

Midcourse defence is for cowards to be cheered on by idiots. Poland and Japan cheer on ABM systems on their territory, but mid course interceptors would be useless to stop attacks on their territory... they need end course interceptors like S-400 and S-500 though the latter could probably be used as a mid course interceptor too.

The US wants midcourse ABM systems in Poland and Japan and the Arctic Ocean because then they can use nuke warheads and all the shit will land in Europe and the Pacific Ocean and Canada respectively and they will be nice and safe and only have to deal with the few weapons that sneak through.

India does not have the distance from her enemies to even use midcourse interception because missiles flying over such short distances will either be going up very very high and then immediately coming down, or they will be operating on a depressed trajectory and never get high enough for there to be an interception outside of the atmosphere...

Several  aspects  of  operating  in  the  exo-atmosphere  make  midcourse  defenses  particularly  vulnerable  to countermeasures.    In  the  vacuum  of  outer  space,  heavy  and  light  objects  released  from  a  missile  will  travel  on (nearly) identical trajectories. The lack of wind resistance allows objects with little structural strength to retain their shape.  Taken together, these two factors enable a wide range of lightweight countermeasures.

And the first nuke you launch in amongst this big swarm of aparant targets that detonates will damage all of them and blow them off course in a way that would never happen with real incoming warheads... so then you will know... locate those interceptor missiles close to your border so the nuclear detonations happen over their territory... who are they going to complain to for launching what appeared to be a massive attack...

There  are  many  possible  exo-atmospheric  countermeasures.    Examples  include  replica  decoys,  electronic decoys,  booster  fragmentation,  enveloping  structures  or  screens, radar  stealth, jammers, infrared  stealth  (low emissivity  coatings  or  cooled  shrouds),  obscurants  (radar  chaff  or  aerosols),  midcourse  maneuvers,  nuclear detonations to create electromagnetic pulse effects, and direct attacks on ground-based defense components (such as radars).  Multiple countermeasures can be used in combination to enhance their effectiveness.

This is all true but over the distances we are talking about you would probably struggle to get an interceptor to their incoming missile while it is still outside the atmosphere...

The extended decision/intercept time, the coast period through space before reentering the atmosphere can be several minutes, up to 20 minutes for an ICBM.

Pakistan and China don't have any territory they could base missiles that would count as ICBMs that would still reach targets in India (and not over fly them).

This gives sufficient time to intercept an incoming warhead in the vacum of space.

The much shorter distances as I said means shorter ranged missiles will be used that may not even exit the atmosphere...

The midcourse phase allows the largest opportunity to intercept an incoming missile.

Only when the missile shot is from the middle of Siberia to the middle of the US of A. Going from China to India or Pakistan to India is a much shorter trip giving a lot less time and perhaps no time in space at all.

At this point the missile is no longer under power so it follows a more predictable path.

Why would you think that?

Even a MIRV warhead bus is powered and can manouver to release each warhead on board along a trajectory to allow them to reach their target.

As of now China has shown that its intent is to target several countries across Asia

I am sure they would say the same of you.... all these countries who draw parts of our territory in their maps...

So maybe it's the US that is nudging China to invade these countries.

Look at their belligerent activities recently... kidnapping Chinese CEOs and using Canada to do that... banning Chinese companies from contracts for no good reason at all, imposing sanctions... and then playing footsie with Australia and India to remind them whose side THEY are on... I am sure the US State Department will be shocked if any military actions start... because they are only interested in peace and democracy...

India is getting played.

Consequently, the decision will have to be taken by the Chinese communist politburo (and not India) as to whether they intend to follow the instructions being provided by the U.S

China is normally very sensible, but as you are probably aware... push the self defence buttons and anything appears justified... look at the shit hole Israel has dug for itself... it is fighting everyone.... what sort of life is that?  Do they feel safer now they have their own country they can call their own and persecute their own minority populations in?

But they can't see that and they have a right to defend themselves... they stole the land they have with terrorism and violence and now complain to the UN and international community when the locals use the same method to get it back.

Exactly. And that's why I said in my previous posts that exo atmospheric/mid course interception is far more effective and safe than endo atmospheric interception. But then, you disagreed.

If you are using nuclear warheads then detonating them inside the atmosphere makes them vastly more powerful and effective... in space there is very little to no blast wave... it has nothing to travel through... just intense heat for an instant... and some serious EM waves... but inside the atmosphere it would be vastly more effective.

You do understand that an interceptor that hits targets outside the atmosphere essentially uses side thruster rockets.... and it is enormously complicated.

Inside the atmosphere a lot of missiles use sidethruster rockets to jump closer to the target at the last milisecond before they cross paths... but to shift the trajectory rather than just turn the nose of the missile the thruster needs to be at the centre of mass of the outgoing missile whose burning fuel has been shifting the centre of mass for the entire flight... when you have to move 5 metres to the left and you have a micro milisecond to do so then turning a fin just wont cut it... firing 20 side thruster rockets might get you that 5m.

In space the side thrusters are the only thing you can use to change direction... but there is no thin airstream to keep your nose pointed forward... your nose with radar and IIR sensors looking for the target that are critical to the intercept that must be kept pointing forward...

There are reasons exo atmospheric interceptors are not common.

The main one being if you smack into the target... whether in space or inside the atmosphere it is the closing speed that matters and the angle of interception... a side glancing blow of a missile going past will just damage it... a head on impact from a missile coming up from a similar location to where the target is and therefore where the target missile is actually heading is more likely to result in a solid contact and complete obliteration...

Chinese SSBN can fire SLBMs into India from the Pacific.

The vast majority of Chinese missiles are IRBMs and lack the range to be called intercontinental.

Any actual ICBMs they wont waste on India because their longest range weapons they will need to keep to hit the US if they need to.

Chinese DF-26 has a range of 4000kms. That is going to be used against India as well.

First of all that range is likely an estimate or a guess, and second just because they think it probably has a range of 4,000km doesn't mean it is currently aimed at a target 4,000km away.

And even if they are right on both counts a 4,000km range ballistic missile is still an IRBM and not an ICBM and will be coming in at speeds the S-400 can already handle... ie less than 4.8km/s.

Do you think its ability to hit targets moving at that speed was some sort of accident?

The S-400 can probably hit any IRBM and most SLBMs launched at Russia already. The S-500 is the big brother that can handle ICBMs and satellites too.

Yes, by the U.S. But China is helping the U.S in no small measure by occupying Indian territory.

They don't see it as Indian territory, it is clearly something you need to join some colonial western powers in an alliance and spend trillions on weapons you don't otherwise need and bait the dragon... I am sure they might just understand what you mean and hand all that land back over to you peacefully... but you can bet your ass that is not what America is hoping.

America has already thrown Australia and Canada under the bus by getting the aussies to talk to china about human rights and where the covid 19 virus came from, and of course kidnapping the CEO of Huawei in Canada... now they want India to burn up its hard earned tax dollars to prop up some failing US aircraft programmes like super hornet and any other shit they could tack on... oh if you rent some SHs then you need carriers to put them on which means all new helicopters and tiltrotor aircraft and of course AWACS platforms etc etc etc... this is going to be trillions of dollars spent on worn out old American shit... it wont even be the new stuff... and of course China is going to have to respond... they have already built lots of carriers... I think they will quickly work out what they want to do with them... imagine when they have 10 carriers and their only mission is to sail from Chinese waters through the Indian ocean to their mate Pakistan and stay for a few months and then sail back.... they are international waters there so you can't really do anything to stop them... But of course the Americans and Aussies and Japs will save you... obviously you need a nice big American base in India for the 7th fleet to operate from... that will keep you super safe... BTW you have to pay for it...

Yeah, and the sad thing is all this money going into the pockets of american arms makers is not going to make you safer, it will just hold you back and stifle your development... and honestly make you look foolish.

The Indian Defense Ministry announced that a group of military personnel will be sent to Russia in the next few days. These are servicemen of the Air Defense Forces who will be trained in the operation of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. It was noted that India expects the first deliveries of these air defense systems by the end of 2021.

Which will make Indian purchases of F-35 impossible, and will undermine US arguments about Turkey operating a weapon of an American enemy...

No individual system can protect against swarm attacks... that is the point of swarm attacks... swarm attacks will be very effective against any country taht does not have an integrated air defence network with thousands of radar and communications centres and management systems and of course individual air defence batteries in enormous numbers.

Ideally you want to detect the attack before it gets near your territory... for instance a large number of C-17s and C-130s and A400Ms flying over central europe and detection of increasing numbers of tiny airborne threats would be ideal for Russia because they can claim it is a swarm attack and blunt it by launching several air burst nuclear weapons within their midst to vapourise most of them while they are over the territory of HATO countries... S-400s would be used in this situation to try to shoot down the transport aircraft that delivered the swarm so they can't do it again, but of course the airfields those transports are operating from will likely be nuked too, and then it would be a case of dealing with anything that survived with a variety of light SAMs and EW equipment to destroy or disable the remaining threats and to launch a counter attack against the locations those threats came from so there is no question of a second wave of attacks.

India would have less capacity to defend against a swarm attack, but then few of her current enemies are as powerful as HATO and would not have the capacity to form a real swarm... a swarm is not hundreds of threats... we are talking 10,000 plus to be a real swarm threat, but then jamming and tactical nuclear weapons would also play a big part and of course over time as western systems are revealed then Russian and Chinese equivalents will be developed and deployed and honestly I think it is something India would be good at doing too... I would think instead of making your own 5th gen fighter... of which you might build 200-400 at the most, if you built your own swarm drones in the 100s of thousands then that will be a formidable strike force threat that even the US would be afraid of and might even pay to buy from you... you might make HATO plans for drone swarms a reality because lets face it the French and the UK and the US are in no position to make them affordable enough to be produced in numbers that would be useful.