Syrian Civil War: News #5

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.

Create Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria, Erdogan has created to many enemies and a lot of "people" want too see him weakened. There is nothing better than Syrian quagmire.

zg18 wrote:

Militarov wrote:"Developments on the Turkish-Syrian border give serious grounds to suspect that Ankara is planning a military invasion in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
“We have serious grounds to suspect intensive preparations by Turkey for a military invasion on the territory of the sovereign state of Syria,” Major General Igor Konashenkov, Defense Ministry spokesman, told journalists.

“We are recording more and more signs of concealed preparations by the Turkish military,” he added."

Source: https://www.rt.com/news/331278-turkey-military-invasion-syria/

Putin`s trap for Erdogan is working, you have to be blind not to see that Russian strategic goal is to force Turkish hand in Syria.

Sorry zg18, I don't get what the trap is and what you are referring to?

zg18 wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.

Create Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria, Erdogan has created to many enemies and a lot of "people" want too see him weakened. There is nothing better than Syrian quagmire.

This is very true and needs to happen.

"Meanwhile, a senior commander of the Fath al-Halab (Conquest of Aleppo) terrorists group, Major Yasser Abdel Rahim, fled the battle against the Syrian army in Northern Aleppo and took shelter in Turkey. This marks a significant fall of the militants’ morale in the province".

They are all like the Turks, all cowards.

http://southfront.org/international-military-review-syria-feb-4-2016/

zg18 wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.

Create Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria, Erdogan has created to many enemies and a lot of "people" want too see him weakened. There is nothing better than Syrian quagmire.

In addition to creating an Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria it is also possible to create an Afghanistan for Turkey in Turkey

Acheron's on the money.

Eastern Turkey isn some spots looks already like Syria.

par far wrote:Sorry zg18, I don't get what the trap is and what you are referring to?

To understand "the trap" you have to understand Erdogan`s mindset, he is more driven by historical revanschism than Sunni Islamism. Part of Turkish elite never reconciled with loss of Aleppo and Mosul in 1923, and side position in MENA affairs. They ruled region for greater part in last 500 years, they have imperial complex, if you had ever met Turkish nationalist for instance they loath Russia & Iran but also respect them at the same time yes they will bring common Sunni theme with Arabs but they basically don`t respect & always look down at them. Erdogan never misses a chance to assert lordship over Arabs, like with "Arab spring", which is his greatest mistake, Arabs maybe don`t like Iran but they never forget Ottoman colonial rule that brought them economic, military and intellectual misery.

I mean, Ottoman Egyptian period is classical example of colonial rule, Mameluks kept their privileges, Ottoman porte rarely kept viceroys for Egypt longer time in office to prevent new center of power besides Istanbul which meant no effective long term management, which meant in the end, Muhammed Ali of Egypt, famous Albanian Khedive, inherited the land that was the same in early 1800s as was in early 1500s when Ottomans defeated Mamluk Sultanate. Basically no progress for 3 centuries in Arab world, and we in Balkans complain about Ottomans They at least here invested some money.

They would be mad if they did, but then logic has not featured in some of their recent actions. If Turkey invades Syria it will presumably be with a minimum of CAS, to reduce the risk of direct conflict with the RUAF, and its objective will be to drive a wedge south to stop the Kurds heading further west cutting off IS.

In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.

No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.

And this comes after Biden's visit, wonder if there is any connection between his visit and this turkish army preparations.

The strategic importance of yesterday's 'closing the gap'.

Today's Peto HD map

JohninMK wrote:The strategic importance of yesterday's 'closing the gap'.

Great Maps JohninMK, I would love to see the look on Erdogan's face, if the SAA and Allies, can quickly get to Azaz.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Acheron's on the money.

Eastern Turkey isn some spots looks already like Syria.

The Turks are about to face an economic Afghanistan:

The Rewards of Attacking Russia - 1300 Turkish Hotels Up for Sale

I'm sure Greek and Cypriot hotels would be more than happy to take up the slack... BTW, Germany is set to spend well over $600 million on hosting migrants in hotels, I wonder when the legions of castrated European men will put pressure on the Turks to host migrants in their 'ghost hotels'? For that matter I wonder when the europussies will hold the Turks accountable for their carcinogenic 'Grey Wolf' network?

#JeSuisTripartiteTurkey#

All hurried to "share the pie": Saudi Arabia has declared its readiness for war in Syria

https://russian.rt.com/article/146398

Saudi troops ready to participate in the ground of anti-terrorist operation on the territory of Syria within the framework of the coalition led by the United States, said the representative of "the Arabian coalition" to assist the government of Yemen General Ahmad Asiri. It is reported TASS with reference to the media.
"Saudi Arabia is ready for ground operation as part of an international coalition in Syria led by the United States," writes the Agency.

JohninMK wrote:They would be mad if they did, but then logic has not featured in some of their recent actions. If Turkey invades Syria it will presumably be with a minimum of CAS, to reduce the risk of direct conflict with the RUAF, and its objective will be to drive a wedge south to stop the Kurds heading further west cutting off IS.

In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.

No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.

But didn´t Putin warned afer S-400 installation: let them fly? So every Turkish plans would not cross border. as for land forces they might come as pace makers to bring relief to refugees bomber by Putin/Assad/Hitler. Regardless of facts  western ministry of truth will sell such version. Now question shooting down Turkish plane will be war in hot phase?

As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?

GunshipDemocracy wrote:All hurried to "share the pie": Saudi Arabia has declared its readiness for war in Syria

https://russian.rt.com/article/146398

Saudi troops ready to participate in the ground of anti-terrorist operation on the territory of Syria within the framework of the coalition led by the United States, said the representative of "the Arabian coalition" to assist the government of Yemen General Ahmad Asiri. It is reported TASS with reference to the media.
"Saudi Arabia is ready for ground operation as part of an international coalition in Syria led by the United States," writes the Agency.

JohninMK wrote:They would be mad if they did, but then logic has not featured in some of their recent actions. If Turkey invades Syria it will presumably be with a minimum of CAS, to reduce the risk of direct conflict with the RUAF, and its objective will be to drive a wedge south to stop the Kurds heading further west cutting off IS.

In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.

No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.

But didn´t Putin warned afer S-400 installation: let them fly? So every Turkish plans would not cross border. as for land forces they might come as pace makers to bring relief to refugees bomber by Putin/Assad/Hitler. Regardless of facts  western ministry of truth will sell such version. Now question shooting down Turkish plane will be war in hot phase?

As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?

Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.

Klintsevich: a Turkish invasion of Syria would make negotiations impossible
http://ria.ru/syria/20160204/1369859292.html

"The invasion of Turkish troops in Syria could set back the situation in the years ago. First of all, it at the root will kill the very possibility of inter-Syrian negotiations. There is no doubt that the Kurds will react negatively to such a move. In short, begins "the war of all against all", the consequences of which predict no one will be taken", — said the Klintsevich reporters.
Eventually lose and Turkey, "unless, of course, does not mean parochial interests of its current ruling elite," said the Senator.
"Of course, we understand that Turkey due to its history, current circumstances is the most bratty child in the NATO family. But the founding fathers of the North Atlantic bloc quite enough leverage to talk some sense into him," said the Klintsevich.
According to the MP, the statement of the official representative of the Russian defense Ministry about the presence of covert training of the Turkish armed forces to action in Syria "should be considered not only as a warning to Turkey but NATO".

par far wrote:

As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?

Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.

hundred thousands? only if Kurds are well armed and trained but then pindostan USA would treat it as an aggression against NATO and Ukraine, Poland an Baltics.

par far wrote:Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.

Yep, leaving Iran-Iraq aside, Tel Aviv and Cairo will not accept Turkish lordship over Syria.

Israeli defence minister practically sided with Russia in Russia-Turkish spat over ISIS oil trade only week or two AFTER they settled dispute when Israelis raided Gaza bound ship. So for Israel, nothing has changed vis-a-vis Erdogan, like with their Iran policy, Israel interests lie in blocking major Muslim powers from it`s borders, be Shia or Sunni.

Egypt will see such situation as a major threat, due to close ties between Syrian and Egyptian MB orgs and links with Erdogan. General Sisi will most certainly react aggressively.

The beauty of Russian intervention is the right dose, to tip the boat but at the same time not to be passenger in it.

Already posted............del

JohninMK wrote:T......................

In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.

No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.

It is even simpler, VKS just needs to light up any turk dumb enough to cross the border.

"Oooops, you guys were there without an invitation from legal authorities??? Bummer........ "

Israel will throw any Muslim leadership to the dogs @ any given time. So really not exactly new from big Iz.

The Other issue with Turkey trying to pull a "Russia not in Ukraine" in Syria has three issues.
1. They are going to infiltrate from rather hostile areas of Turkey in hostile areas in Syria (Latakia/Afrin/Rojava). This alone is going to make a lot of noise. The Russian were ironically among their own when they intervened in Ukraine.
2. There is going to be a stray Tochka or S400 on those attempts to "infiltrate". It has already happened (Lots of MHP goons have been killed by the Russians since 4 months). This time is going to be "official".
3. There will not be a NATO approval to this non-sense. It's not shooting a Russian plane is going "all in" and getting Klub'ed' from the Caspian leaving traces of intervention. Because unlike NATO who didn't went all in for Ukraine, Russia did for Syria. If Turkey gets caught, they'll have to bite the pillow or NATO will have to doom themselves into an open "aggression". This is exactly the thing the Americans did not wanted to see happening in Syria. But as they lacked decisiveness to fight Assad openly (red lines comrades) they're now simply cornered between a pocket WW3 or utter humiliation of the same alliance that is supposed to protect America's backyard worldwide.

That's why you simply don't leave stray dogs like Erdogan roam around, you either put them down or kick them out.

KoTeMoRe wrote:........................

That's why you simply don't leave stray dogs like Erdogan roam around, you either put them down or kick them out.  

Smart thing for DC to do would be to just give turk generals phone call and order them to take out the trash in presidential palace.

It not like they don't have plenty of experience with it already.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Klintsevich: a Turkish invasion of Syria would make negotiations impossible
http://ria.ru/syria/20160204/1369859292.html

"The invasion of Turkish troops in Syria could set back the situation in the years ago. First of all, it at the root will kill the very possibility of inter-Syrian negotiations. There is no doubt that the Kurds will react negatively to such a move. In short, begins "the war of all against all", the consequences of which predict no one will be taken", — said the Klintsevich reporters.
Eventually lose and Turkey, "unless, of course, does not mean parochial interests of its current ruling elite," said the Senator.
"Of course, we understand that Turkey due to its history, current circumstances is the most bratty child in the NATO family. But the founding fathers of the North Atlantic bloc quite enough leverage to talk some sense into him," said the Klintsevich.
According to the MP, the statement of the official representative of the Russian defense Ministry about the presence of covert training of the Turkish armed forces to action in Syria "should be considered not only as a warning to Turkey but NATO".

par far wrote:

As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?

Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.

hundred thousands? only if Kurds are well armed and trained but then pindostan USA would treat it as an aggression against NATO and Ukraine, Poland an Baltics.

Arming the Kurds to the teeth is the best thing Russia can do, so only US and NATO, are the only that can treat things as an aggression, what about all the countries that NATO and US has destroyed? What about the aggression they are applying to Syria? The thing is fuck US and NATO, if they don't want a direct war, than stop destroying countries and stop killing innocent people(especially if those countries are vital to Russian security and Russian interests).

KoTeMoRe wrote:Israel will throw any Muslim leadership to the dogs @ any given time. So really not exactly new from big Iz.

The Other issue with Turkey trying to pull a "Russia not in Ukraine" in Syria has three issues.
1. They are going to infiltrate from rather hostile areas of Turkey in hostile areas in Syria (Latakia/Afrin/Rojava). This alone is going to make a lot of noise. The Russian were ironically among their own when they intervened in Ukraine.
2. There is going to be a stray Tochka or S400 on those attempts to "infiltrate". It has already happened (Lots of MHP goons have been killed by the Russians since 4 months). This time is going to be "official".
3. There will not be a NATO approval to this non-sense. It's not shooting a Russian plane is going "all in" and getting Klub'ed' from the Caspian leaving traces of intervention. Because unlike NATO who didn't went all in for Ukraine, Russia did for Syria. If Turkey gets caught, they'll have to bite the pillow or NATO will have to doom themselves into an open "aggression". This is exactly the thing the Americans did not wanted to see happening in Syria. But as they lacked decisiveness to fight Assad openly (red lines comrades) they're now simply cornered between a pocket WW3 or utter humiliation of the same alliance that is supposed to protect America's backyard worldwide.

That's why you simply don't leave stray dogs like Erdogan roam around, you either put them down or kick them out.  

Very good points KoTeMoRe, one thing I would like to add is that Russia needs to be aware of everything and have their military modernised (which is happening).

"MILITANTS KILL IRANIAN GENERAL IN SYRIA".

RIP

http://southfront.org/militants-kill-iranian-general-in-syria/