The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

I love the Volkish vibe...soon Ukrainians would claim to be Dj@rmans.

KoTeMoRe wrote:I love the Volkish vibe...soon Ukrainians would claim to be Dj@rmans.

Don't worry soon they will claim to be more Polish and Germans than the former together.

KoTeMoRe wrote:I love the Volkish vibe...soon Ukrainians would claim to be Dj@rmans.

Wonder tho why would one great Banderovka like that use weapon desiegned by filthy Moskovian Georgi Špagin or use handgrenade by Gregorij Dljakonov... just wondering

Militarov wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:I love the Volkish vibe...soon Ukrainians would claim to be Dj@rmans.

Wonder tho why would one great Banderovka like that use weapon desiegned by filthy Moskovian Georgi Špagin or use handgrenade by Gregorij Dljakonov... just wondering

I liked the Pehpehsha hanging on her with an oversized stock and no visible means of hanging. Nice trick, must be a Lemberg foible and from the size of that Pehpeh she's about 140 cm.

JohninMK wrote:A well proven path to hide inaction. Add some more talking points so that less time is spent on the real issues.

Ukraine will put three key sets of issues on the agenda of the 'Normandy Four' negotiations between foreign ministers, which are tentatively planned for March 3, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin has said. "I believe that we need to broaden it [the agenda]. Hopefully, we have managed to explain a number of peculiarities to our Western partners," Klimkin told Interfax-Ukraine in an exclusive interview.

First of all, these are security issues. "Our colleagues used to think that security means ceasefire. Now there is the clear realization that it also means OSCE SMM access to every place in Donbas. Then, and this is crucial, SMM access to the border and its real monitoring," the minister said.

The minister explained what, in his opinion, the monitoring should include: the deployment of special OSCE SMM bases along the border and the possibility of sudden inspections during the first phase. He said their representatives should be stationed at nine checkpoints and control them during the second phase, and the third phase should create an efficient system of control over border sections between those checkpoints. "The fourth element of security is who will be watching the withdrawal of armaments and, if a part of them are put under control, who will be watching the storages. We need an international component for doing so. For now, the main idea about the international component is an international mission of the OSCE. I want to present our vision at the next meeting in the 'Normandy format', and I have begun to discuss the mandate and tasks of that mission with our friends," Klimkin said.

Another issue the minister plans to highlight is the prisoner swap.

Elections in Donbas are the third subject, the minister said, adding that elections required security. "Again, we will need security for doing so - if there is no [security] there and the OSCE does not okay elections, then nothing can happen there," the minister said.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/326508.html

In a nutshell: We have no intention of honoring the agreement we signed last year to save our a$$es, we want control of the borders now, don't matter if it's us or OSCE, it's the same thing, and we won't allow an election in Novorossiya.

Briefly. Clearly a lot going on and Basurin was right that something was going to happen tonight. Some reports are a little wrong, for instance it is reported that ukrops are firing phosphorus near Yasinovataya where most of the fighting is taking place. As in most cases in 2014, this is actually illuminating rounds that use magnesium. Also some of the reports state that shelling is taking place on central Donetsk. This is not the case and residents are quick to say this. There is one development that does have possibly more serious implications, and that is people these days know difference between mortars and artillery, and some of the reports are saying ukrops are firing artillery, but not verified.

The situation tonight. ukrops tanks and artillery reported being used at Avdeevka.

Khepesh wrote:Interesting article about a possible near future scenario for Ukraine from Polish perspective. http://grey-croco.livejournal.com/1507387.htmlThe article says that perhaps with victory of Kaczynski's party last October and ongoing noises from Poles about wanting Galicia returned and the establishment of tribunal to investigate UPA, then it is possible, according to the article, that Poland will deploy three extra brigades in eastern areas and invite America to base substantial forces in Poland. The basis for this speculation being that Ukraine is seen as dead man walking and has no future in it's present form, in fact the West will engage in realpolitik and essentially allow Russia to take all of what is historically seen as Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, and on other side of coin for Poland to take Galicia and leave Ukraine as a rump landlocked country acting as a buffer between east and west. The article says this will occur by a failed assault on Donbass by Kiev followed rapidly by total collapse of Ukraine as a state. Then to avoid total bloodbath in Ukraine, Russia moves to reclaim Novorossiya, and Poland Galicia. As an invasion of Ukraine from Russia or NATO in the current situation could cause WWIII, a collapse of Ukraine needing "help" from both east and west, to avoid further bloodshed of course, would be a possible solution to the problem without involving a shooting war between Russia and NATO. This is also predicated on a return to full cold war, which is what I personally believe America wants. It's almost like an unspoken deal that Russia moves border further west, Poland/NATO further east, and the price being cold war and the many $$$ this will make for some. The article is a little tounge in cheek, but presents an interesting scenario. Also,from other sources, Ukraine are forming a new mountain brigade under command of, from their perspective, competant commanders from ATO zone, and this brigade to be based in Galicia, to face who? hardly Russia. Article is more intricate and nuanced than my synopsis of course, and it is difficult to stretch imagination at points, but we live in "interesting times" and maybe anything can happen that at the moment we will not believe.

This map is a bit old and I'm sure all have seen it before, but not with such an interesting story hanging on it

I have no idea where you get your information from but almost nobody in Poland wants Galicia returned.

The problem with Poland is that it is even too weak to defend itself and vast majority of ethnic Poles know it.

Plus ethnic Ukrainians are extremely influential in Poland, and the last thing they want to see is Poland expand at Ukraine's expense.

The article is utter bull-shit.

My friend from Chile is back and he translated the latest war report from militia and resident sources.

Fighting all along the front, mostly in the Donetsk-Gorlovka direction, with use of tanks and artillery, though sparingly. If there were any doubts, the press reports of Basurin are doctored, is not that he is lying, just he is under orders from Russian curators to report only a fraction of what is really happening in order to keep the pretence that there is some sort of truce with only occasional violations and thus do not break off from negotiations. If the Novorussian leadership honestly reported what is going on, there would be no point about negotiating at Minsk.

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2016/02/24/parte-de-guerra-23022016/

Odin of Ossetia wrote:


I have no idea where you get your information from but almost nobody in Poland wants Galicia returned.

The problem with Poland is that it is even too weak to defend itself and vast majority of ethnic Poles know it.

Plus ethnic Ukrainians are extremely influential in Poland, and the last thing they want to see is Poland expand at Ukraine's expense.

The article is utter bull-shit.

It's not my article, I simply wrote a short synopsis of the original from here http://grey-croco.livejournal.com/1507387.html The reason I thought this article interesting is that it has analogies with the Molotov-Ribbentrop, Yalta and Potsdam deals that divided up countries based on what major powers want, not the inhabitants of those countries. There is no limit to the degree of cynicism used by politicians of any country when it comes to deciding the fate of other, weaker countries. The scenario of a redrawing of borders in central and eastern Europe is entirely speculative, and the article is clear on that, but if Moscow and Washington think it necessary, then who will stop it. If Washington unilaterlaly wants to redraw borders within NATO countries by them applying pressure behind the scenes, who will stop it. Already Washington and it's useful idiots in NATO saw nothing wrong in calling for "regime change" in Ukraine, to say nothing of creating and indulging in war in the Middle East, do you think that if Washington wants border changes as well, then it will not arrange it. Brzezinski is old but he still sits in Washington dripping poison in the ear of presidents, and if Clinton becomes President this year, then her head is already full of his poison, and I think Brzezinski or any politician in America does not give a shit about what Poles want or do not want, only how to gain advantage over Russia at any expense.

A prediction, and not exactly rocket science. Shortly ukrops will probably resume bombarding into civilian areas of Donetsk and Gorlovka to the level they were up to last August, their excuse being that VSN are firing at them from those locations. Last year it was "tolerated" because it was widely assumed that ukrops main offensive would happen at any time and the counter offensive would then put a stop to the bombardments. If the bombardments resume I doubt there will be any "tolerance" for not stopping it, and tho shitheads accused the residents of Oktyabrsky of being "agents of Kiev" because they dared protest at Zakharchenko after they had been bombarded constantly, and I think if such a situation is allowed to happen again it will be more than the residents of one small district protesting at inaction. On Monday night ukrops did in fact resume part of their campaign of bombarding civilian infrastructure and targetted electricity transformers around Donetsk. Last night they targetted the water treatment plant at Yasinovataya and damaged one of the water inlet pipes. They had targetted this plant last summer and hit the electricity station, which was repaired while artillery was still falling nearby. Last night the repair crews again in action with the knowledge that at any time ukrops could have resumed firing. We tend to look at what happens between armies, which is normal, but there is an untold story of the guys in the various infrastructure repair crews who at times have worked under fire to restore power and water.

zg18 wrote:Yesterday during exchange of POWs in Marynka - Donesk

That is a Scorpion backpack magazine, gear does not get newer that that. So much about "Russia abandoned Donbass'' BS...

If I did not know better I would assume that those guys were Russian Army. In fact, entire NAF is so well supplied now it is getting really hard to differentiate between them and RU Military.

On the upside, when ukrops get their backsides handed to them again the will have decent excuse for thinking it was Moskals themselves...

Akatsiya at Kherson about to move to border with Crimea. Description says there was also tanks, but not seen in this video.

Ukraine is a dead country.. it have no chance to become a developed nation again.
And the unrest will only grow. it will be impossible for kiev to have stability as long they
continue following their Americans allies ,that are only interested in to use Ukraine
to create problems to Russia.

So any fight of kiev in Donetsk or Lugansk trying to take it by force will not succeed ,the lines
are already drawn ,of what part each side needs to be ,and so if the Kiev forces move inside the
line of NOvorossiya controlled territory , they will be under justification to push them out from their zones. Ukraine is doomed because to defeat Russia on a land war ,near Russian borders
is hopeless. Kiev could get NATO to invade eastern Ukraine and will still lose to Russia.

So what kiev can do?
All they can do is provocations against Russia , continue the hostilities in hopes that Russia will
invade and the invasion will help kiev to draw away the attention from them ,and unite half of the population somehow in defend of their nation territory.

So with the ukraine conflict is much easier for Russia to handle it . What Americans could try to do to create serious problems for Russia ,is to try force Germany and France to change its policies in Ukraine and welcome the arming with lethal weapons Ukraine and provoke a real war
with Russia. if for example they start shelling Russian cities or Crimea. it will be really retarded
and desperate because Russia have pro Russian rebels in the ground ,that could be armed with lazer designators. So Russian Airforce can bomb with precision all Kiev forces without the need to enter any part of Ukraine .

The west could also provide chemical weapons to kiev , to attack Russia or Crimea or eastern Ukraine ,but that will truly destroy the credibility of kiev in the world. Because that will demand an investigation of UN about who used them. And will only help stengthen Russian position that the violence and civil war is consequence of kiev and not Russia. Since they are indiscriminately bombing civilians.

Americans could also  allow Ukraine to collapse and disband with the intention of create another pressure on Russia economy ,since Russia will be left with the problem of dealing with Ukraine and not the west means that Russia will need to provide humanitarian aid to 40 millions of citizens and will have to deal with the Euromaidans and restore order there ,while at the same time they provide weapons to the so called nazis ,to attack Russian peace forces. The big risk
however in all this is that Russia could truly take control of all Ukraine ,and underestimate the support of Russia there. if all ukrainians see they were betrayed by Americans and were only using them.

But so far ,Ukraine conflict , looks like it will be a repetition of Moldova/Transnistria issue.
The fact that it was reported by RT ,or it was max keyser or Russia insider , (can't remember)
But the fact that Victoria Nuland was in a weird meeting with a Russian Diplomat close to Russian Government in Kaliningrad.Asking for renegotiations of the minsk 2 agreement. Is a major proof ,of the nightmare the document represent for USA ,to have to deal with it.and the kind of victory Putin achieved with that official document ,signed not only by Kiev ,Moscow ,Paris and Berlin.but also by United Nations too and Security council.

This means that MInsk-2 is an international law ,backed by the international community.
and that no matter how many wars or battles happen.. that kiev will be forced to give eastern Ukraine a special status and that Rebels with the help of Russia can keep the fight forever until kiev agreed with the peace agreement of the way out of the conflict.

Minsk-2 is not dead. Not really. They can resist the document.. but the pressure of Europe will not end until kiev agreed to support it.  

So my prediction is a major coup in kiev ,with Right Sector taking control of it .helped by CIA.
and a major civil war.  This will force Europe and Russia to work together to restore order.
and put an end to American policies in Ukraine. Said in other words.. US disbanding Ukraine could create the opposite of what Americans wanted..with the coup in kiev.. that is the isolation of Russia from Europe.. and could get exactly the opposite and get Russia and Europe to make an alliance without Americans being part of it. Ukraine have nuclear reactors that could truly create problems to Europe. if they explode. .so they cannot allow ultra nationals nazis to provoke a major civil war and to take control of the nation.

The major problem that US government face in Ukraine.. is that yes they took control of it..
in a coup. (with the intention to use Ukraine against Russia)/.
but Ukraine is next to useless for Americans. Because to use ukraine effectively against Russia
it needs to have a stable economy first with a stable government. without those things ,it will be impossible for Americans to create a united front against Russia ,if Ukrainians do not have food ,and depends on Russia generosity to not freeze in winter. So Americans will have huge problems ,to create Unity in Ukraine against Russia. SOmething that could only have been achieved..if only Russia listened the people calling for Russia to invade and wipe the nazis.
What they are achieving instead.. is instead of isolating Russia from Europe.. is the opposite. to get Europe more closer to Russia to restore order in Ukraine. So effectively it can be said beyond any doubt . that the whole coup of Victoria Nuland was a total failure. it did not took into account the major support Russia have in Ukraine and neither the really bad economic situation of kiev. that Americans took kiev control ,yes.. but they could not keep Ukraine operating in an acceptable way. They cannot even stop fighting in their own parliament..   So it will be impossible for kiev to become a stable nation again ,until someone from the outside helps them.. this is where Europe and Russia can help by working together. (as they will be forced do) and REVERSE the coup of Americans in Kiev. This means a return of democracy to kiev with equal right for all ethic groups. and allowing pro Russian Ukrainians to have representation in the government and to have their own security in Donetsk and Lugansk.
This is exactly the Autonomy and Federalization that novorosiya was asking since day one.

So Americans could realize the whole coup failed ,and take the decision to let Ukraine disband.
and try to cause as much damage as possible to Russia economy with the 40 million refugee problem . But if they do that ,they risk totally damaging the interest of their own allies like Poland and all Europe that are already FED UP with refugees.  Because most Ukrainians will like to move to Europe for the higher salaries there.  

So if US allows Ukraine to disband and a civil war there to start, it will create huge problems for their own friends in refugees. Forcing Europe to become closer to Russia to restore order in Ukraine. and give the Autonomy t Donetsk and Lugansk they wanted .

So the way i see it.. Americans already lost in Ukraine. and it was Minsk-2 and Germany and France desire to stand by it, the last nail in the coffin in the US plans in Ukraine.  There will be a lot more violence and this and that..possibly another thousand people lose their lives ,and shelling and battles..but the nation will disband. and when that happens ,the blowback of American policies will come ,forcing their own Allies to Distance from them and become Closer to Russia ,at very least when it comes to Ukraine issue. and restore order in Ukraine.

The irony in all this.. is that the only way ,that Americans could keep the distance going ,
between Europe and Russia , is by cooperating more with Russia and helping them to reverse
their own coup in kiev.  Indeed Minsk-2 was a real masterpiece of document .it was called
effectively by some analyst as a PEACE TRAP.  that allows Russia to earn time and force kiev to peace or to piece .  Unfortunately however it will take time before it is implemented.could take months ,a year or two ,but eventually it will have to happen.
Americans will not have a way to create unity against Russia in Ukraine ,neither over run Donetsk and Lugansk..and hold any territory with Russia helping them.

So American options are.. to choose between A PEACE trap that benefit Russia, or a
war of attrition that Russia can handle easily,and American can't and that will disband Ukraine.
The first one reverse the coup. and the last one allows Russia to retake a lot of territory
from Ukraine without invading. Potentially across the entire border of Russia ,all those cities ,
all the way to Oddessa. so called novorosiya back.

 I really think US government is doomed to totally lose control of Europe. it is only the cowardice of European leaders today to defend their interest what have allowed Americans Government to continue fueling the violence ,destabilizing the world.

American goverment also have a third option ,and that is provoke a world war 3 ,between
Ukraine and Turkey with Russia. but that will not defeat Russia ,and will truly be the last nail
in the coffin between US and Europe relations. it will only create a totally new World ,where Europe will be forced to create an alliance with Russia ,in order to save humanity and the world from US attempt to its destruction with their policies.

Huge article in Russian with lots of pics about about LNR 10th Artillery Brigade

http://militarizm.livejournal.com/100157.html

Russian speakers can go into details but main point would be huge amount of equipment and excellent supply chain. They seem to have this thing as well:

2S5 Giatsint
 
 

Khepesh wrote:Akatsiya at Kherson about to move to border with Crimea. Description says there was also tanks, but not seen in this video.
...............

So ukrops are going to invade Crimea?

Man I hope they try, there would not be enough popcorn on this planet for something like that!!!