The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

Khepesh wrote:Zakharchenko has said that Kiev now has enough forces massed in Donbass to launch an assault. He says that the numbers of troops are such that it is more than needed for defence, and is for offence. He says, and I paraphrase, that if they attack it will not stop, [there will be no more Minsk crap he means], and that they will be stopped by VSN and then a counter offensive to liberate all of Donbass occupied by ukrops will begin. http://dnr-news.com/dnr/29817-zaharchenko-kiev-skopil-v-donbasse-dostatochnye-dlya-nastupleniya-sily.html

Goes without saying, ukrops have been burning trough reputation faster than trough cash.

Maybe Auslander can confirm this.

Seems Russian forces on Crimea are also on alert. A Spanish guy I know, also married to a Crimean woman reports that there are mass troop movements in the road from Kerch to Simferopol. Trucks, tank transporters, armored carriers, self propelled artillery, etc.

Also high intensity of military flights. Air activity higher even that at the time of the liberation of Crimea.

Ispan wrote:Maybe Auslander can confirm this.

Seems Russian forces on Crimea are also on alert. A Spanish guy I know, also married to a Crimean woman reports that there are mass troop movements in the road from Kerch to Simferopol. Trucks, tank transporters, armored carriers, self propelled artillery, etc.

Also high intensity of military flights. Air activity higher even that at the time of the liberation of Crimea.

It was a snap alert exercise couple days ago. Belbek has been quiet as a mouse this afternoon and evening after the sunset patrol took off.

Another gravy train runs off the rails

KIEV, February 9. /TASS/. Kiev plans to buy no more coal in South Africa, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy and Coal Industry Vladimir Demchishin said on Tuesday. "We don’t plan to buy any longer," he told journalists. The last batch of about 80,000 tons of South African coal arrived in the Black Sea port city of Odessa on February 6.

In late September 2015, Ukraine’s Centrenergo signed a contract with Switzerland’s trader Mercuria Energy Trading S.A. for anthracite coal supplies from South Africa.

Ukraine was forced to buy coal from South Africa due to the shortage of domestically produced coal. Apart from that, anthracite coal supplies from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) were suspended for some period of time over Ukraine’s energy blockade of Crimea. In December 2015, Russia resumed coal exports to Ukraine after Kiev partially resumed electricity supplies to Crimea. The DPR authorities also decided to resume coal supplies to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, experts said South African coal was too expensive for Ukraine and did not fit its thermal plants. Thus, according to chief of Ukraine’s miners trade union Mikhail Volynets, the cost a ton of South African coal is 1,800 hryvnias (about 69.8 U.S. dollars under the current exchange rate), whereas coal extracted in Donbass costs 1,100 hryvnias (about 42.6 U.S. dollars) per ton. He also said there were questions to the quality of South African coal, since its heating output was only 5,000 kilocalorie and could not be used by Ukrainian heat plants.

http://tass.ru/en/economy/855479

This morning three civilians were killed in a bus by a mine at ukrops checkpoint at Novomikhailovka, between Marinka and Elenovka. It's being seen as a cynical answer to what Zakharchenko said yesterday about possible ukrops offensive. http://dan-news.info/defence/avtobus-s-mirnymi-zhitelyami-podorvalsya-na-ukrainskom-kpp-pogibli-tri-cheloveka-istochnik.html

Lifenews run the same story and quote DAN directly, tho also have this photo.

Death toll at the Novomikhailovka incident increased to four according to statement by Pushilin.

higurashihougi wrote:Wow wow wow, what a face.      

Merkel looks like Emperor Palpatine/Darth Sidious and that Yats looks like Beaker from the muppet show

Interesting article about a possible near future scenario for Ukraine from Polish perspective. http://grey-croco.livejournal.com/1507387.htmlThe article says that perhaps with victory of Kaczynski's party last October and ongoing noises from Poles about wanting Galicia returned and the establishment of tribunal to investigate UPA, then it is possible, according to the article, that Poland will deploy three extra brigades in eastern areas and invite America to base substantial forces in Poland. The basis for this speculation being that Ukraine is seen as dead man walking and has no future in it's present form, in fact the West will engage in realpolitik and essentially allow Russia to take all of what is historically seen as Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, and on other side of coin for Poland to take Galicia and leave Ukraine as a rump landlocked country acting as a buffer between east and west. The article says this will occur by a failed assault on Donbass by Kiev followed rapidly by total collapse of Ukraine as a state. Then to avoid total bloodbath in Ukraine, Russia moves to reclaim Novorossiya, and Poland Galicia. As an invasion of Ukraine from Russia or NATO in the current situation could cause WWIII, a collapse of Ukraine needing "help" from both east and west, to avoid further bloodshed of course, would be a possible solution to the problem without involving a shooting war between Russia and NATO. This is also predicated on a return to full cold war, which is what I personally believe America wants. It's almost like an unspoken deal that Russia moves border further west, Poland/NATO further east, and the price being cold war and the many $$$ this will make for some. The article is a little tounge in cheek, but presents an interesting scenario. Also,from other sources, Ukraine are forming a new mountain brigade under command of, from their perspective, competant commanders from ATO zone, and this brigade to be based in Galicia, to face who? hardly Russia. Article is more intricate and nuanced than my synopsis of course, and it is difficult to stretch imagination at points, but we live in "interesting times" and maybe anything can happen that at the moment we will not believe.

This map is a bit old and I'm sure all have seen it before, but not with such an interesting story hanging on it

So do they suggest this will happen through a war on both sides or are world powers going to sit together like in London in 1839 (in which Belgium was established as an independent state) to reshape Ukraine?

Well, it is all speculation, except that Ukraine is deploying a new mountain brigade to Galicia. But the situation does have to be resolved at some point in the future. The impasse is that Donbass will not be merged and Kiev cannot take Donbass by force, so what is to be done. Even if everybody sits on ass and chews snot for a couple of decades, which will not happen, a solution still has to be found, just as for all the frozen conflicts. America wants unending conflict or at least fear of conflict to maintain jobs, $ creation and control of populations, and it is clear that their rhetoric, and that of their poodles, is specifically designed to create a new cold war. However, nobody actually wants WWIII as it will be death for all, so to avoid a hot war, a new and stable border between east and west needs to be created, a new iron curtain. The borders are clear from Estonia and around western border of Belarus to Gomel. A border can be said to exist along the eastern edge of Romania, with Moldova being a grey area at this time, but no matter what happens in that area, in the near future there will be an east/west border either at Romania or Moldova. This leaves a huge stinking hole called Ukraine in the center.

If Russia invades to take all of Ukraine or at least the old Novorossiya, then possibility of hot war. If substantial NATO forces appear in Ukraine at request of Kiev, then this will be a direct and serious threat to Russia and again possibility of hot war. A solution could be to deconstruct Ukraine and leave a rump state around Kiev, then let the west march into Galicia and Russia into Novorossiya, by agreement with both sides. This solves the problem of Ukraine without a hot war, but the price will be new cold war. America will want this, Russia will not, and I suspect neither will many countries in Europe. If this occurs, then it will need to be decided between Moscow and Washington, either formally or by default, such as failed offensive by Kiev, and action needed to prevent uncontrolled chaos in Europe, if that does not occur anyway due to migration crisis.

I think in the end result there will be realpolitik and Moscow and Washington will agree a solution to Ukraine that will bring stability, and to be cynical, for either side not to loose face, this is perhaps best achieved by some controlled chaos being allowed to occur in Ukraine that can be mostly blaimed on Kiev, like a failed offensive, and requiring outside force. It doesn't solve the Russia v America problem, but it brings stability, and even the $ worshippers need stability as far as major issues are concerned. I think this needs resolving before a new US President, and Obama could do with this being resolved while he is still in office to try to save his reputation. I doubt this time next year we are discussing Ukraine, only the aftermath of what happened, looking at what will then be old videos of VSN flag being raised over Kharkov, or the crossing of the Dnepr at Kherson, the march into Odessa, the Poles raising their flag over Lvov, Poroshenko and his gang hanging from lamposts, well, who knows....

Thanks for the analysis Khepesh.

Khepesh wrote:Well, it is all speculation, except that Ukraine is deploying a new mountain brigade to Galicia. But the situation does have to be resolved at some point in the future. The impasse is that Donbass will not be merged and Kiev cannot take Donbass by force, so what is to be done. Even if everybody sits on ass and chews snot for a couple of decades, which will not happen, a solution still has to be found, just as for all the frozen conflicts. America wants unending conflict or at least fear of conflict to maintain jobs, $ creation and control of populations, and it is clear that their rhetoric, and that of their poodles, is specifically designed to create a new cold war. However, nobody actually wants WWIII as it will be death for all, so to avoid a hot war, a new and stable border between east and west needs to be created, a new iron curtain. The borders are clear from Estonia and around western border of Belarus to Gomel. A border can be said to exist along the eastern edge of Romania, with Moldova being a grey area at this time, but no matter what happens in that area, in the near future there will be an east/west border either at Romania or Moldova. This leaves a huge stinking hole called Ukraine in the center. If Russia invades to take all of Ukraine or at least the old Novorossiya, then possibility of hot war. If substantial NATO forces appear in Ukraine at request of Kiev, then this will be a direct and serious threat to Russia and again possibility of hot war. A solution could be to deconstruct Ukraine and leave a rump state around Kiev, then let the west march into Galicia and Russia into Novorossiya, by agreement with both sides. This solves the problem of Ukraine without a hot war, but the price will be new cold war. America will want this, Russia will not, and I suspect neither will many countries in Europe. If this occurs, then it will need to be decided between Moscow and Washington, either formally or by default, such as failed offensive by Kiev, and action needed to prevent uncontrolled chaos in Europe, if that does not occur anyway due to migration crisis. I think in the end result there will be realpolitik and Moscow and Washington will agree a solution to Ukraine that will bring stability, and to be cynical, for either side not to loose face, this is perhaps best achieved by some controlled chaos being allowed to occur in Ukraine that can be mostly blaimed on Kiev, like a failed offensive, and requiring outside force. It doesn't solve the Russia v America problem, but it brings stability, and even the $ worshippers need stability as far as major issues are concerned. I think this needs resolving before a new US President, and Obama could do with this being resolved while he is still in office to try to save his reputation. I doubt this time next year we are discussing Ukraine, only the aftermath of what happened, looking at what will then be old videos of VSN flag being raised over Kharkov, or the crossing of the Dnepr at Kherson, the march into Odessa, the Poles raising their flag over Lvov, Poroshenko and his gang hanging from lamposts, well, who knows....

Enjoy what you write but my eyes are not what they used to be tracking across blocks of text. Can you put an occasional para break in please?

Well, a post with paragraphs

Statement from Basurin and reports on media, NTV for instance who have TV crew at the scene, say that after the incident at the checkpoint, ukrops refused to give aid to the victims, 15 of them not counting the four dead, because, according to witnesses, ukrops said "They are from Donetsk".  http://dan-news.info/ukraine/vsu-otkazali-v-pomoshhi-postradavshim-ot-vzryva-miny-na-kpp-novomixajlovka-zhitelyam-donecka.html

Seems a name for this incident cannot be agreed by everybody. It occured near Novomikhailovka, but some media are simply calling the "checkpoint incident", and others calling it the "Kurakhovo incident".

On other news. The LNR minister for construction, Alexei Rusakov, has been arrested for large scale fraud to steal money from the housing budget fund in conspiracy with the director of the contractors, Maxwell Sammy. http://ria.ru/world/20160210/1372480644.html#ixzz3zm90pX9P

Video of the arrest of Rusakov


Cynical mode on: Seems in Lugansk that when $ is involved, then arrests are quickly made, but not so for murder.... : Cynical mode off

Khepesh wrote:Well, a post with paragraphs


Cynical mode on: Seems in Lugansk that when $ is involved, then arrests are quickly made, but not so for murder....  : Cynical mode off

You know as well as me that in the eyes of the law property, assets and money are much more important than lives. The penalties are much harsher everywhere. That is unless you are in a really corrupt gang controlled place like Ukraine where if an oligarch is involved, the 'right' one of course, laws of either type are semi invisible.

Thanks for the paras. My eyes thank you.

Thanks for the posts, guys.

BM-21 GRAD ‏@bm21_grad 5h5 hours ago

BM-21 GRAD Retweeted Roland Oliphant

Oh my fucking goodness, lmao

BM-21 GRAD added,
Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
He says he likes the Kurds because they are fighting Isil, who are basically the same as the Ukrainian government.


1 retweet 0 likes
BM-21 GRAD Retweeted
Roland Oliphant ‏@RolandOliphant 5h5 hours ago

Today I dropped into the opening of the Syrian Kurdish office in Moscow, and ran into ex DNR chief Alexander Borodai.
57 retweets 19 likes

No more dosh then says the first posts. But then come the third, you can't fault her on optimism.

It is hard to continue cooperation with Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) without a substantial effort to fight corruption, MF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has stated.
"I am concerned about Ukraine’s slow progress in improving governance and fighting corruption, and reducing the influence of vested interests in policymaking. Without a substantial new effort to invigorate governance reforms and fight corruption, it is hard to see how the IMF-supported program can continue and be successful," she said in a statement published on Wednesday.
"Ukraine risks a return to the pattern of failed economic policies that has plagued its recent history. It is vital that Ukraine's leadership acts now to put the country back on a promising path of reform," she said.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/323568.html


There won't be next tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if Ukraine does not speed up the reforms, Ukrainian Minister of Finance Natalie Jaresko said, commenting on the statement by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
"I see that this [statement made by Christine Lagarde] emphasizes that tranches are not issued without reforms. Acceleration rather than slowdown of reforms is needed," the minister said at a meeting of the parliamentary committee on economic policy in Kyiv.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/323690.html

The Ukrainian Finance Ministry has confirmed the plan to raise $8-10 billion in financial assistance from external creditors in 2016, including $5.8 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"We plan to obtain $8 billion or $10 billion for budget and investment needs this year, including $5.8 billion from the IMF (four tranches), $1 billion from the United States (this is the guarantee for the issue of our eurobonds), another $1.2 billion from Japan, Switzerland and the EU within the framework of the existing macro-financial assistance, some more funds from Poland, Germany, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank and the World Bank," Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada committee on economic policy in Kyiv.
She noted that part of the said amount, including loans from the EBRD, Germany's KfW, the World Bank and Poland, will be used directly for financing investment projects rather than funding the budget or replenishing the reserves.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/323691.html

Then Poro pops up and puffs hot air, knowing he cannot deliver the 'commitment'. But then Lagarde knows that as well.

Christine Lagarde said that Petro Poroshenko underscored Kiev’s commitment to continuing government reforms and anti-corruption measures.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko underscored Kiev’s commitment to continuing government reforms and anti-corruption measures, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. "The President [Poroshenko] reassured me of his unwavering commitment to reforms, including improving governance and fighting corruption," Lagarde stated on Wednesday.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160211/1034551665/kiev-reassures-imf-government-reform.html#ixzz3zo3C4hEp

Not what Kiev wants to hear or read

MUNICH (Sputnik) – It is critical that Kiev authorities fulfill their part of the Minsk peace agreements, US Secretary of State John Kerry said Saturday.

"After two difficult years, Ukrainians still have work to do as well… Neither the people of Ukraine nor their partners in the international community believe that enough has happened in Ukraine either," Kerry said at the Munich Security Conference. "Ukraine has responsibilities with respect to Minsk [agreements] and it's critical Kiev upholds its end of the bargain," he added.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160213/1034702597/kiev-fulfills-minsk-deals.html#ixzz403GRllqF



Paris and Berlin are seriously concerned about Kiev's unwillingness to adhere to the Minsk peace agreements on eastern Ukraine, according to the French newspaper Le Monde.

Kiev has failed to take steps to implement the Minsk peace agreements on eastern Ukraine, which continues to alarm Paris and Berlin. The countries' leaders remain doubtful regarding the implementation of the accords, the French newspaper Le Monde said, citing a senior French official.

According to the newspaper, this skepticism stems from the behavior of Ukrainian politicians, who had earlier played the role of "good students." Le Monde quoted the official as saying that the situation remains the EU's main concern, and "in the short term there is no reason for optimism in the matter."

The official said that the past few years have seen an ever-increasing number of supporters of the normalization of relations with Russia in Europe, something that he said comes amid the Ukrainian side's visible reluctance to comply with the Minsk agreements.

"Fatigue from the Ukrainian issue can quickly turn into fatigue from the Ukrainian partner, who has proven to be unreliable," the official said, adding that "in this vein, the question of anti-Russian sanctions is seen in a different perspective."

One of the main problems pertaining to the Minsk agreements is Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's inability to approve the special status of eastern Ukraine's Donbass region. The initiative is being blocked by many Ukrainian lawmakers, according to the Le Monde. "Poroshenko's hopes to gain a constitutional majority by getting two-thirds of the votes are already seen as unrealistic," the newspaper said.

Another serious problem is related to the "vague wording on the implementation of some stages of the Minsk agreements," Le Monde said. For example, restoring control of the region's border with Russia to the Ukrainian government within the conflict zone after local elections. This has yet to be fulfilled because Kiev continues to insist that holding such elections in Donbass is impossible.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160213/1034691497/ukraine-agreements-conflict.html#ixzz403FmJHlt

Ukrops bombarding the usual places around Donetsk for a few hours now. One day when this happens and everybody sits back and says "norm", it won't stop after a few hours and people find it's not "norm", but by then it may be too late.

Photo in previous post keeps dissapearing, probable another glitch at radikal.
Anyway, video of the action at Marinka tonight. It's ukrops source so all the trace and other stuff is heading from them into Donetsk. Also residents of northern districts of Donetsk report the sounds of firing are getting louder and closer. Edit: Numerous reports coming in of action along the entire front from Marinka to Gorlovka, no heavy artillery so it's still ukrops trolling. However, the situation around Gorlovka gets quite hot with reports that ukrops are firing a lot of mortars out of Dzerzhinsk onto VSN positions around Maiorsk, which is "route one" into Gorlovka.

The bombardments are stronger every night. This is the same tactic they've used before, shoot at night while OSCE is enjoying cocktail hour and a little increase every night. It's coming, and it's directly tied in to Syria/Turk mess. The orcs don't take a dump without asking permission of their masters.

Auslander, I do not doubt it is coming.

Since various updates/briefings, now reports of ukrop tanks firing into Kuibishevsky from Peski, this is a new attack and not the one that destroyed two houses earlier in the evening, and of incoming at Kievsky. Nothing that wasn't routine up until last September.....