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    Military budget of the Russian Federation

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    eehnie

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  eehnie on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:44 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    This is a version in English. Very interesting and long article covering all the good bits. These are the first paras, more at link


    In the current issue of the journal Expert, an interview with Alexei Khazbiev with Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko was published, dedicated to the financing and priority areas of the State Arms Program (GPV) until 2025, as well as military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.

    In September, President Vladimir Putin is expected to approve the new State Arms Program (GPV) until 2025. But it is already clear that its funding will inevitably have to be sharply reduced. At first, our military demanded that they allocate about 30 trillion rubles for the re-equipment of the army and navy, but then reduced their requests to 22 trillion. Nevertheless, even such an amount seemed excessive to the Ministry of Finance, and after tough picks in the government, the financiers cut it to 17 trillion rubles. We note that this is almost 3 trillion rubles less than is spent on the current GPO-2020. But the most important is the redistribution within the new program of expenditures on certain types of armed forces and the army. If till now our naval commanders literally bathed in money, and the Ground Forces and the Airborne Forces were in the position of poor relatives, now these roles will be reversed to the exact opposite. So, in the framework of the still active Navy program, 4.7 trillion rubles were allocated, and now the fleet will receive only 2.6 trillion rubles. But the financing of the Army and Airborne Forces will increase from 2.6 trillion rubles to 4.2 trillion rubles, which is almost a quarter of the total costs of the new program. Such an increase in expenditures under this heading is due to the tense situation in Ukraine, Central Asia and Syria, as well as the need for massive purchases of armored platforms of a new generation - Armata, Kurganets and Boomerang. About what other equipment we need to create and buy, how to increase the sales of Russian arms in the foreign market and whether under our current conditions our defense industry can conduct a conversion, Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told in an interview to Expert .

    - How justified and expedient is the drastic reduction in expenditures under the GPV until 2025 in the current situation?

    - In itself, the reduction in spending on the purchase of weapons and military equipment is justified and inevitable. First, during the implementation of the current state program, there will be significant saturation with modern or new weapons in several financially capacious segments. By 2020, for example, five of the eight strategic submarines of the Borey class and three of the seven Ash-class submarines should be built. Percentage of eighty will be covered by the requirements of the VCS for tactical aviation and helicopters. Not a single SPG in the post-Soviet period has been performed as successfully as the current one. Even if the target indicator - equipping troops with new equipment by 70%, is not achieved, it can already be safely asserted that this indicator will make up at least 60-65% for most segments. One has only to bear in mind that the concepts of "new" and "modern" weapons are not identical. For example, the MiG-29SMT fighters delivered to the military reconnaissance station are, without a doubt, new-generation cars built without the use of production reserves. But are modern aircraft, the armament system of which is built on the basis of a radar with mechanical scanning of the beam, is an open question.

    We must understand that the GPO-2020 is successfully implemented in an environment of economic stagnation, and in some years both a recession and a sharp drop in prices for hydrocarbons. But this success created the prerequisites for reducing the volume of GPV-2025. Anatoly Serdyukov and Nikolay Makarov had strong arguments on their hands in their polemics with Alexei Kudrin about the amount of necessary funding for the current program. Today, it is much more difficult for Sergei Shoigu and Yuri Borisov to prove the need to save the costs of purchasing arms and military equipment in the same volume, as the country's financial capabilities have significantly decreased. GPV-2020 was typed at an oil price of about one hundred dollars per barrel, today this price is even nominally twice as low. That is, on the one hand, the country can not spend money on the purchase of equipment in the same volume, and on the other - this is no longer an urgent need, as in 2009.


    https://translate.google.ru/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbmpd.livejournal.com%2F2798498.html&edit-text=&act=url

    The State Armament Program 2011-2020 was of 20 trillion rubles. It means 2 trillions per year.
    The State Armament Program 2018-2025 will be of 17 trillion rubles. It means 2.125 trillion per year.

    It means the SAP 2018-2025 will increase the budget in 0.125 trillion rubles per year over the SAP 2011-2020.

    Where is the cut?

    Only in the mind of the intoxicators that want expand their negative propaganda.

    T-47

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  T-47 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:47 pm

    The cut is in accordance with the $$ value I think. Which doesn't really represent the actual budget.....
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:09 am

    T-47 wrote:The cut is in accordance with the $$ value I think. Which doesn't really represent the actual budget.....

    I don't think the Russian government considers the $$ value very much.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:40 pm

    In 2013's dollars, the next year's budget will around $80 billion, which in itself is very misleading when it comes to the Russian MIC.

    The article is really nothing new or surprising, but:

    "The country's financial capabilities have significantly decreased." How? No, seriously. The economy is going to grow, and in the early 2020s, at the latest, it's going to be much larger than it was in 2013.

    "GPV-2020 was typed at an oil price of about one hundred dollars per barrel, today this price is even nominally twice as low." And what is this BS? Has the oil price, in ruble terms, for the Russian budget, decreased by half? Or the Russian federal budget as a whole? Nope, not even close. And the budget is going to start growing in 2019 at the latest in any case, probably sooner.

    People here must also realize that these plans are very conservative, worst case scenarios in many ways, that will realistically only stay valid until 2020-22. The economy will grow larger. Already next year, the Russian economy will be larger than it has ever been, in ruble terms, of course.  

    I've mentioned this earlier many times, but if you do some very simple calculations, you'll realize that the sum that is allocated for 2018 is going to be a very modest amount in 5 years time as the economy grows. It will fall from around 3% of GDP to barely 2% in that time-frame. So it's obvious that the budget will most likely start growing by that time, not stay the same...

    ... Or Russia will just become another Western European country when it comes to military spending. Does that seem likely in any way? Hell no. These long-term "programs" and projections are kind of dumb, when it comes to Russia's military spending, IMO. The numbers simply don't add-up (in a good way, i.e. the projections are unrealistically pessimistic).

    T-47

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  T-47 on Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:18 pm

    franco wrote:
    T-47 wrote:The cut is in accordance with the $$ value I think. Which doesn't really represent the actual budget.....

    I don't think the Russian government considers the $$ value very much.

    Was talking about the article not government
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:34 am

    https://vpk.name/news/192668_rossiya_sokratit_rashodyi_na_nacionalnuyu_oboronu_v_2018_godu.html


    For comparison: in 2017, defense spending amounted to more than 1 trillion rubles. While the Armed forces of the Russian Federation received 867,6 billion. At the same time, the military budget of NATO in 2017 amounted to more than $946 billion.

    According to the document, in subsequent years, costs will be reduced. So, in 2019 will be allocated acabaron 860,6 billion, and in 2020 — 869,1 billion.

    The draft budget provides for the allocation of Armed forces in 2018 771 billion 114 million roubles, in 2019 753 billion 946 million rubles in 2020 — 771 billion 917 million rubles.

    Earlier it was reported that the defense Ministry of Japan will ask for a record military budget in the amount of 5.25 trillion yen ($48.2 billion) because of the threat from North Korea. Part of the funds will be spent on the purchase of the US missile defense Aegis Ashore.

    Franco, what do you make of this? There seems to be major issues with the reporting of budgets. If the budget was so low, how is Russia spending the 2.8T rubles then of the defense budget? Or is procurement not part of the Armed forces budget?
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:38 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:https://vpk.name/news/192668_rossiya_sokratit_rashodyi_na_nacionalnuyu_oboronu_v_2018_godu.html


    For comparison: in 2017, defense spending amounted to more than 1 trillion rubles. While the Armed forces of the Russian Federation received 867,6 billion. At the same time, the military budget of NATO in 2017 amounted to more than $946 billion.

    According to the document, in subsequent years, costs will be reduced. So, in 2019 will be allocated acabaron 860,6 billion, and in 2020 — 869,1 billion.

    The draft budget provides for the allocation of Armed forces in 2018 771 billion 114 million roubles, in 2019 753 billion 946 million rubles in 2020 — 771 billion 917 million rubles.

    Earlier it was reported that the defense Ministry of Japan will ask for a record military budget in the amount of 5.25 trillion yen ($48.2 billion) because of the threat from North Korea. Part of the funds will be spent on the purchase of the US missile defense Aegis Ashore.

    Franco, what do you make of this?  There seems to be major issues with the reporting of budgets.  If the budget was so low, how is Russia spending the 2.8T rubles then of the defense budget?  Or is procurement not part of the Armed forces budget?

    Noticed this a couple of days ago. Waiting to see more information.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:13 pm

    I can't gather to what it is saying really, and judging by comments, I don't think others can either. Because the president stated how much the defense budget is for the nation. But my understanding is that the 2.8T covers everything in security of the nation. So out of the 2.8T, the Military gets roughly 1T and the Russian national guard gets 1T and the rest is spent on other programs that are security related. And they want to increase national guard budget and reduce militaries for next couple of years. Seems the FSB is shilling this idea through the finance ministry. I think there will be a lot of disagreements with the military. This will slow down procurement. It may be also related to why they are bringing in modernized T-80's, 90's and T-72's as well as looking to upgrade BMP-2's and other such older systems to get more modern equipment out without spending on brand new.

    Although, it goes contrary to previous news about how much army gets vs navy. Unless I'm doing the math wrong.

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:14 pm

    Russian defence budget expected to be cut by 5% in 2018

    http://www.janes.com/article/74248/russian-defence-budget-expected-to-be-cut-by-5-in-2018


    The Russian defence budget is expected to be cut by approximately 5.0% to RUB2.73 trillion (USD47.13 billion) in 2018, according to budgetary guidance published by the Ministry of Finance. The reduction in spending is in line with plans laid out under the previous 2017–19 budget.

    According to the document outlining the main directions of budgetary policy for 2018–20, spending on National Defence is expected to receive a 3.7% increase in 2019 to reach RUB2.83 trillion before a further marginal 0.5% cut in 2020 to RUB2.82 trillion. The new plans are in line with previous projections for 2018. However, the defence allocation for 2019 is around 0.5% higher than previously expected.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:59 pm

    Wow, so if we used 2013 exhange rates, Russia would be spending about $90B in 2018. Since it didn't change in Ruble sense, it is a lot of money. Must be for whole security aparatus?

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:45 pm

    Expenses of the Russian Federation on national defense in 2018 will make more than 2.77 trillion rubles

    This is 100 billion rubles less than this year, according to the accompanying documents to the draft budget for 2018-2020


    MOSCOW, September 29. / TASS /. Expenditures on national defense in 2018 will amount to more than 2.77 trillion rubles, which is 100 billion rubles less than in this, according to the accompanying documents to the draft budget for 2018-2020, introduced September 29 in the State Duma.

    "Budget allocations for the section" National Defense "in 2018 will amount to 2 771 784.6 million rubles, in 2019 - 2 798 497.4 million rubles and in 2020 - 2 807 994.3 million rubles. GDP of the corresponding year, the share of expenditures in the "National Defense" section will make up 3.1% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018, 2.7% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020, " documents. This year, budget expenditures on national defense amounted to more than 2.87 trillion rubles.

    The share in the total volume of federal budget expenditures under the section "National Defense" in 2018 and 2020 compared to 2017 (17.0%) will decrease and amount to 16.8%, in 2019 will increase and amount to 17.1%.

    "The budget allocations envisaged in the draft law in comparison with the volumes approved by Law No. 415-FZ in 2018 were increased by 42,633.4 million rubles, in 2019 reduced by 17,323.8 million rubles, in 2020 compared to the volumes , stipulated by the draft law for 2019, increased by 9,496.9 million rubles, "the text of the document says.

    It follows from the accompanying documents that along with general approaches to the drafting of the federal budget for the change in expenditures under the "National Defense" section, the increase in budget allocations for the current maintenance of the Russian Armed Forces, including food, transportation, infrastructure maintenance, in 2018 by 62 , 5 billion rubles, a decrease in the budget allocations of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, provided for the payment of contracts for the provision of utility services in 2018 by 50.253 billion rubles, and in 2019 - by 50.677 billion rubles.

    The budget allocations reserved for the formation of the draft federal budget for 2018 and for the planned period 2019 and 2020 under the section "National Defense" will be directed in particular to ensuring the fulfillment of international obligations for the deployment of Russian military units in the territories of foreign states in 2018-2020 (in the amount of 4.4 billion rubles annually).


    Подробнее на ТАСС:
    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4604078

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:01 pm

    Defense spending in Russia can cost 3 trillion rubles

    https://vpk.name/news/194310_rashodyi_na_oboronu_v_rossii_mogut_oboitis_v_3_trln_rublei.html

    The government proposed to increase total defense spending in 2017 by 179.6 billion rubles - to 3.05 trillion rubles (3.3% of GDP). This follows from the draft amendments to the budget, submitted to the State Duma.


    Growth of expenses falls on the closed part. Expenditures for all other areas, including social policy, education and health, are planned to be reduced by 54 billion rubles.


    As RBC reminds, a year ago, when the Ministry of Finance presented a three-year budget consolidation program, expenditures for the "National Defense" section for 2017 were planned at 2.84 trillion rubles, a quarter lower than in 2016. But first in the summer the government increased the military budget by 40 billion rubles, and now offers to add another 180 billion rubles.


    The last time the defense spending of the federal budget was below the level of 3 trillion rubles in 2014. In 2015, they rose to 3.2 trillion rubles, and last year - to a record 3.78 trillion. At the same time about 800 billion rubles in 2016 fell on a one-time article - early repayment of bank loans to the defense industry, taken under the government's guarantees in the framework of the state defense order. Without taking into account these payments, the national defense spending last year would not exceed 3 trillion rubles.


    The additional appropriation of 2017 for the defense sector is almost 100% concentrated in the subsection "Armed Forces", they will spend 2.3 trillion rubles on the results of the year. The head of the military economics laboratory of the Gaidar Institute Vasily Zatsepin believes that this may be additional funds for the state defense order. Andrei Frolov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Export of Arms, agrees with him, but he did not rule out that the reason could be the operation in Syria.


    By the autumn amendments, the government increases the expenditure part of the budget by 125.7 billion rubles. "But the bulk of these funds are distributed according to closed articles of the federal budget. And we do not know what exactly this money will go to, "said First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, justice Alexander Remezkov in a commentary distributed by his assistants.


    Along with the section "National Defense", the most significant increase is allocated to the mass media (by 3 billion rubles) and interbudgetary transfers (by 37 billion rubles). Expenditures for social policy are proposed to be reduced by 49.6 billion rubles, healthcare - by 5.3 billion rubles, education by 10.2 billion rubles, environmental protection by 3.1 billion rubles, housing and communal services by 9 billion rubles. According to the government, the total federal budget expenditures in 2017 will amount to 17.007 trillion rubles, and the budget deficit is 2.5% of GDP.


    October 11, deputies will discuss the draft budget with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:35 pm

    MOSCOW, Oct. 17 - RIA Novosti. Russia in the current situation can not give up current spending on defense, these spending are absolutely justified, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    The government approved the draft budget until 2021

    "I understand perfectly well that in the current situation we can not give up defense spending .... Today spending on defense and security in the budget is about a third of all expenditures, this is a big share, but they are absolutely justified by the fact that our state is a nuclear power , our state has to reflect all those political attacks that are on our country, "Siluanov said at a meeting with the faction of the" Fair Russia "party in the State Duma.

    "The modernized, strong armed forces are making the state strong today," he added.



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