Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Share

    Poll

    Do you think russia could do it?

    [ 15 ]
    48% [48%] 
    [ 8 ]
    26% [26%] 
    [ 8 ]
    26% [26%] 

    Total Votes: 31
    avatar
    Isos

    Posts : 2303
    Points : 2297
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  Isos on Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:54 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    Vladimir79 wrote:US doesn't invest much in it either.  The most likely candidate is Elon Musk beating everyone.

    Musk is just a show-pony who owns a rocket company.  SpaceX doesn't currently have a manned LEO capability, and won't launch such vehicles unless the USGov pays for them (ie shuttle service to/from ISS).  The idea that Musk is going to land humans on Mars is nothing but fan-boi BS.

    Isn't he bankrupt because of his ideas ? I heard tesla is loosing something like 5000 $ per minute or hour. His reusable rockets won't help him.
    avatar
    Big_Gazza

    Posts : 1344
    Points : 1346
    Join date : 2014-08-25
    Location : Melbourne, Australia

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  Big_Gazza on Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:18 pm

    Tesla is not doing well, but even if it went to the wall, SpaceX is a separate company and Musk won't lose his shirt.
    avatar
    Hole

    Posts : 960
    Points : 960
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 42
    Location : Merkelland

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  Hole on Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:21 pm

    Its not his money. Its the money from pension funds and from people that are told by their bank that it would be a good "investment". And, of course, tax payer money.
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3757
    Points : 3856
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  kvs on Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:01 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:They say the average asteroid is worth $50 billion in mineral elements, most of the value in platinum. If it costs $49 billion to conduct the mining they have already made a profit and they would have the infrastructure to mine many more.  The only question is what company is large and bold enough to take the risk.  The long term problem for that is once everyone starts mining asteroids these minerals will not be as rare or valuable as they are now and would need a growing market to sustain their value.  The barriers to entry are so high only one or two companies would even try it and they would form a monopoly on the industry.

    I think you are missing the show-stopper detail about the distribution of minerals in asteroids. On Earth we have the water cycle which extends from the ionosphere down to the base of the upper mantle layer (670 km below the surface). The distribution of minerals is fundamentally shaped by the flux of water and the presence of free oxygen in the atmosphere. One result is aggregation of minerals in the form of various oxides into veins. This aggregation makes commercial extraction of minerals viable. Asteroids originate from the earliest period of the solar system. Long before any water cycle and oxidation would have occurred. There are no veins of minerals and instead they are diffused through the rock or iron at very low concentrations.

    No company is going to "mine" asteroids since they cannot be mined. We have no technology of cheaply extracting diffuse trace amounts of elements. In the real world this would require vapourization of the rock and the operation of centrifuges as with enriched uranium production. The clowns who estimate the "value" of an average asteroid completely ignore the cost of extraction. Your logic about the 49/50 in costs vs returns also fails to account for risk. Any screwup will result in tens of billions of losses. Risking tens of billions of losses on a one billion profit is not the casino action that corporations are known for. That is why we have an insurance industry. Even small potential losses are insured. However, no insurance company is going to cover high cost asteroid mining. Only the government can cover such losses and sci-fi reliability statistics may require centuries to achieve.
    avatar
    Vladimir79

    Posts : 2531
    Points : 3411
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  Vladimir79 on Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:02 pm

    kvs wrote:I think you are missing the show-stopper detail about the distribution of minerals in asteroids.   On Earth we have the water cycle which extends from the ionosphere down to the base of the upper mantle layer (670 km below the surface).    The distribution of minerals is fundamentally shaped by the flux of water and the presence of free oxygen in the atmosphere.   One result is aggregation of minerals in the form of various oxides into veins.   This aggregation makes commercial extraction of minerals viable.    Asteroids originate from the earliest period of the solar system.   Long before any water cycle and oxidation would have occurred.    There are no veins of minerals and instead they are diffused through the rock or iron at very low concentrations.  

    No company is going to "mine" asteroids since they cannot be mined.    We have no technology of cheaply extracting diffuse trace amounts of elements.   In the real world this would require vapourization of the rock and the operation of centrifuges as with enriched uranium production.   The clowns who estimate the "value" of an average asteroid completely ignore the cost of extraction.    Your logic about the 49/50 in costs vs returns also fails to account for risk.   Any screwup will result in tens of billions of losses.    Risking tens of billions of losses on a one billion profit is not the casino action that corporations are known for.    That is why we have an insurance industry.   Even small potential losses are insured.   However, no insurance company is going to cover high cost asteroid mining.    Only the government can cover such losses and sci-fi reliability statistics may require centuries to achieve.  

    Asteroids have more than 3X the concentration of minerals as the best deposits on Earth making the actual process of extraction more economical. All they have to do is bring the ore worth processing back to a facility in Earth orbit that has easy access to resupply launches. If they need water they can launch it up there and have scrubbers clean it for reuse. With these reusable rockets it might just be worth it to land the ore on Earth and process it here.
    avatar
    George1

    Posts : 12013
    Points : 12494
    Join date : 2011-12-22
    Location : Greece

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  George1 on Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:41 pm

    Russian nuclear energy agency in search for asteroid protection technologies

    According to the scientist, Russia is one of the few nations that has both the scientific potential and practical instruments to carry out a project of this kind

    MOSCOW, June 30. /TASS/. Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has launched a research into technologies that would allow to protect the planet from the asteroid and meteorite threat, a senior Russian researcher has told TASS.

    "Our study is only a part of the quest to create an asteroid protection system. The priorities here are detection, classification and high-precision monitoring of a celestial body. After that, a bomb should be designed, which would be safe enough during the launch. A carrier rocket will have to be designed, too," said Vladimir Rogachev, the deputy head of the laser physics institute at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center (VNIIEF), part of the Rosatom corporation.

    "This is an international task of impressive scope. We have something to offer. But there are also things that we need to borrow," he went on.

    "Regretfully, international politics and the current state of international relations necessitate a different format of communications, so we have to wait. But we should not procrastinate: when a dangerous asteroid approaches the Earth, it will be too late," the researcher added.

    Rogachev said that VNIIEF scientists have "baked" an artificial chondrite, the most popular type of asteroids, to study its qualities. According to their calculations, if a 200-meter asteroid approaches the Earth, a rocket should be launched approximately a month before the planned impact, to smash the celestial body into small parts that would burn upon entering the atmosphere.

    "Yes, some parts will reach the surface of the planet, but, due to their small size, there will be no apocalypse," he said. "This technology would be sufficient to destroy an object similar to the Tunguska meteor."

    According to the scientist, Russia is one of the few nations that has both the scientific potential and practical instruments to carry out a project of this kind.

    "[In order to run this project], one should have detailed understanding of what a nuclear bomb is and of processes that occur during the blast. United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, possibly, India and Israel have the knowledge. But this is not enough. Those with the knowledge of calculation and technologies are also needed. Besides, one should also master the technology of powerful pulsed lasers. Only Russia’s VNIIEF and US Livermore meet those requirements. Others have either no interest or no technology," Rogachev said.

    He said that after scientists shared their experience in a scientific magazine, researchers from the United Kingdom, the United States, South Korea and other nations have demonstrated their interest in the problem.

    In less than a century, Russia has witnessed two major meteorite events with great destructive potential.

    On June 30, 1908, a powerful explosion ripped through a remote Siberian forest near the Podkamennaya Tunguska river. The blast of up to 50 megatons, which occurred at the height of about 7-10 kilometers, knocked down trees at the area of about 2,000 square km. The broad consensus remains that it was caused by a large cosmic body, like an asteroid or a comet. However, no impact crater or any meteoric remnants were ever found, and the exact cause of the Tunguska Event still remains unclear.

    The Chelyabinsk meteorite entered the Earth’s atmosphere on February 15, 2013 at about 07:10 Moscow time, causing a powerful explosion in the atmosphere at an altitude of 23 kilometers. The blast was observed by hundreds of thousands of people in the Urals and north Kazakhstan. It smashed windows in several hundred thousand residential buildings in Chelyabinsk and its outskirts, but caused no major damage or injuries on the ground.

    Large fragments of the celestial body were later recovered from the shores and bottom of Lake Chebarkul, 78 kilometers west of Chelyabinsk.


    More:
    http://tass.com/science/1011580

    Sponsored content

    Re: Is there a possibility that Russia can land on Mars before USA?

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:55 am