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    Project Canada

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:55 am

    miketheterrible wrote:

    Over populating isn't a solution to problems either.


    Yeah but before worrying about over population i think Russia must first put more efforts to encourage ethnic Russian families to have at least 5 or more kids.

    USA wouldn't be in its position today as Superpower if its got a population size like Canada

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    Skandalwitwe

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:56 am

    ^^^This article is so breathtaking wrong on so many levels I don't know where to start. Those incompetent scum 5th columnists posing as 'demographers' are outright liying, fabricating numbers as usual and reveal themselves as utter idiots.

    Some well-substantiated facts of the whooping demographic recovery in Russia:
    1.) Total Fertility Rate rose from a minimum in 1999 1,16 to 1,78 in 2015 0 = +53%
    2.) Crude Birth Rate (per 1.000) rose from 8,3 to 13,3 in 2012 in is on that level since then
    3.) in absolute numbers: 1215k births in 1999 to 1943k in 2014 (=+60%!)

    4.) crude death rate (per 1.000) fell from the max in 2003 (16,4) to 13,0 in 2015 and will fall further in 2016 considering the substantial decline in deaths in the first 9 months
    5.) in absolute numbers deaths fell from 2366k in 2003 to 1906k in 2015 = -20% (latter number even with Crimea/Sevastopol). Death will fall well below the 1,9 million mark this year.
    6.) Life expectancy rose from 64,8 years in 2003 within 12 short years to 71,4 in 2015. Will take another good jump at over 72 years this year. For males it's even more impressive: from 58,5 to 65,9.
    7.) Abortions cease to to be a major problem since they fell from 4,6 million in 1988 to 800k+ in 2015. They declined every single year in that time frame.

    8.) Minus 50 million people in 2050? That means minus 1,4 million pear year? Not even in the darkest times in the 90's/early 2000's.
    9.) The population of the RSFSR wasn't growing at 2 million pear neither after WW2 nor before. Maximum was 1,9 million in the mid-50's. In 1986/87 the natural population growth was almost a million again but then came the disaster we all know.

    There are many more inaccuracies in that crappy fearmongering article but i'm too lazy to address them all.


    Last edited by Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Skandalwitwe

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:04 am

    Here you can check the TFR for all federal subjects in 2015:

    http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/cbsd/dbinet.cgi?pl=2415002

    Only Moscow (unsurprisingly) and Mordovia have TFR below 1,5. Lenoblast is higher than stated that's for sure because a number of births is registered in St. Petersburg. Karachay-Cerkessia is now among the lowest in Russia, KBR isn't stellar either, even Ingushetia isn't in the Top20 anymore (so much for the North Caucasian threat).

    EDIT:
    If that Rosstat link doesn't work then here the wiki page:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_total_fertility_rate
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    franco

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  franco on Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:44 pm

    The birth rate hit their lowest points in 1999 and 2000. Which means for the military that the next two years are the bottom in regards to having 18 year old's to draft. It starts going up again in 2019/2020.
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    KiloGolf

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  KiloGolf on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Over populating isn't a solution to problems either.

    I agree. Over populating with pensioners is a problem. Hence a healthy, steady increase of the population helps with social insurance and pensions.
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    Project Canada

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:21 pm




    Generation of 1990s ready to take Russia to depopulation

    Russia faces the danger of depopulation: the generation of the 1990s has entered the childbearing age. This generation is too small in size and is unlikely to ensure natural reproduction of the Russian population. Russia experienced a monstrous decline in the birth rate during the 1990s. Nowadays, the phenomenon may occur again.
    Regions of Russia, where the birth rate is lowest, have received 16 billion rubles of funds from the federal budget. The families residing in those regions also receive financial support for third and subsequent children. Will it save the country, though? Pravda.Ru meets scientific director of the Independent Institute for Family and Demography Affairs, Igor Beloborodov, to talk about the looming population crisis.

    "Some experts believe that the depopulation problem has been solved for Russia, while others say that the country needs to prepare for the worst. What kind of demographic situation do you think Russia has at the moment?"

    "Those who say that the demographic crisis in Russia will end are charlatans. They are no experts at all. In reality, the age structure in Russia will deteriorate further in 2017 and then till 2020. The number of potential parents will halve in comparison with their amount 10-15 years ago.

    "One has to be a total idiot to expect the demographic crisis in Russia to end under such circumstances. Yet, those people who believe that the impending demographic crisis will be fatal are not right either. A lot will depend on what kind of policy Russia will conduct.
    "It is possible to increase the birth rate for the insignificant number of parents that we have. This can be done within the period of ten years. To accomplish that, one needs to completely change television broadcasts, introduce the concept of demographic security, especially on television. What we need is a massive social family-oriented campaign. If people come across the concept of family and family values everywhere, this propaganda will bring its results. For the time being, we do not have anything like this in the country. Where can a higher birth rate come from if there is absolutely no necessary propaganda?

    "The education system needs to be revised as well. Russian literature, history, social science - these subjects must carry the notion of family. One must bring the spirit of parenthood and family, love for children to younger people, and one must do it at all times.

    "If the authorities think that they can simply allocate 16 billion rubles and then do nothing, then they are terribly wrong. Money is not important here. It is the spiritual condition of the society that matters. Of course, it is necessary to revive family from the inside.

    "One needs to do a lot indeed. One has to revise the pension system in the country so that a person understands at their young age that their pension would depend on the number of children. This would be fair. The current pension system in Russia is falling apart, because present-day taxpayers will not be able to support the growing legion of pensioners.

    "A family of five and six should be prestigious and attractive, and one should make young people think about having large families. For the time being, however, there is an opposite trend. People of limited means give birth to many children, while wealthy individuals live in large houses alone."


    http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/economics/31-01-2017/136748-russia_depopulation-0/

    I agree with the part about educating Russians about the importance of having a large family, even if it means brainwashing the Russian population to have more children so be it, Russia needs a bigger population (at least around 400-500 million?) to survive as a stable, influential and formidable country. Russia will forever be in conflict with other countries seeking global domination because Russia is always in the way of their plans, thats why it is only necessary for Russia to be prepared with all possible scenarios, this is only achievable if Russia remains strong in all areas, Economics, Demographics, Science and Military.

    Svyatoslavich

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:24 pm

    The problem does exist because people in fertile age now are those born during the mini baby boom in the Gorbachev era (late 80's). In the 90's natality decreased drastically in Russia. But then again, there has been a strong increase in natality in the last years, so it is not that the problem will last forever. There will be a couple of decades of stagnation, and then Russian population will grow again even more.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  kvs on Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:44 am

    Russia is affected by a global trend in the developed world which is leading to less marriage and less children being born.
    People are living at home longer and not hooking up with a biological partner as much. So the recovery from the 1990s
    crash is frustrated by a longer term dynamical pattern in developed societies.

    Look at Japan, they are closing schools like crazy and (don't laugh) if you watch any of the anime most of it is basically
    procreation propaganda. But as elsewhere the young generation is going its own way.

    The only way the government can really stimulate child "production" is to offset the cost. Current family friendly tax
    measures are token. There is a need for massive tax breaks (e.g. 50% or more). Russia is actually in a much better
    position to implement such measures because it has a 13% flat tax. This probably explains why the birth rate has
    recovered so much and Russia is actually doing better than other developed countries accounting for immigration.

    Azi

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Azi on Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:30 am

    kvs wrote:Russia is affected by a global trend in the developed world which is leading to less marriage and less children being born.
    People are living at home longer and not hooking up with a biological partner as much.   So the recovery from the 1990s
    crash is frustrated by a longer term dynamical pattern in developed societies.  

    Look at Japan, they are closing schools like crazy and (don't laugh) if you watch any of the anime most of it is basically
    procreation propaganda.   But as elsewhere the young generation is going its own way.  

    The only way the government can really stimulate child "production" is to offset the cost.   Current family friendly tax
    measures are token.   There is a need for massive tax breaks (e.g. 50% or more).   Russia is actually in a much better
    position to implement such measures because it has a 13% flat tax.   This probably explains why the birth rate has
    recovered so much and Russia is actually doing better than other developed countries accounting for immigration.

    Child birth in modern "western countries" (Japan included) is so low, because the ideal of the "modern" western woman is a arrogant, selfish, self-interested career woman, who lacks any sense for the family. This was the ideal promoted by the beauty industry, because a single woman who earns money spend much more money for woman bullshit in relation to a married woman or mother (cloths for children and a good education are more important than lipstick). The satanic combination of emancipation (the principle is good) and the interest of the western companies to sell a lot of bullshit (cosmetic etc) has destroyed the traditional family. I know what I'm writing about, I live in one of these western countries (Germany). NONE of my "alternative" (political left-aligned) friends have chrildren, but all of my friends with traditional ideal have 1-3 children.

    The special problem in Japan is that western ideal is overlapping with the real complex traditional system in Japan. In japan normally it's very very unpolite to flirt direct with the opposite, the man must be introduced by the family or friends to the woman. This old tradition is confronting with western ideals, that the woman has higher demands towards the man. The japanese don't flirt the western way "hey the other one is nice, I'm going to ask direct". So the japanese don't come together!!! In Tokio 50 % of all citizen are single, that's ridiculous high.

    The best for Russia is to curb "western" ideal!!! They must set in TV and magazine their own focus, based on traditional ideals and values. The conflict between the "West" and Russia is the best that ever could happend to Russia, because they can decouple their cultural development from the very mighty dominating western culture. Better taxes for families and a good childcare is the cream on the top and of course must have for Russia.

    The general tendency of less birth rate is normally very good, because we have tooo much people on planet. For China and Japan it's a blessing, because the population will later stabilize at a lower level. For europe the main problem is the muslimic population, because in some of the bigger western countries Islam will be from 2070 on the main religion, this means a radical shift in world balance and of course the loose of great cultures (Germany, France, UK) that dominated the world for nearly 2000 years is a big shame and sad. The general tendency in europe in the next years is a shift of power to east europe, they are more homogenous and will have less conflict inside their society. So be prepared that the scientific and cultural centre of Europa will be Poland and Russia.

    nastle77

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  nastle77 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:03 pm

    Ditto the problem is really the Western woman
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:50 pm

    Anatoly Karlin: Dying Bear Still Not Dead

    The reason I don’t write much about Russia’s demographics nowadays is that there isn’t much point to it.

    Up until the early 2010s, the Western media was brimming with misinformation about the subject – what we now call #fakenews – so refuting it was both profitable and easy. Incredibly easy. You didn’t really have to do anything much more complicated than taking a few minutes to browse through Russia’s national statistics database, but apparently that was beyond the capabilities of most Russia journalists.

    However, by now a critical number of Western pundits have apparently acquainted themselves with at least the Wikipedia article on Russia’s demographics. In the longterm, reality wins out, and so with a lag time of about a decade, references to Russia’s “plummeting population” and “sixth wave of emigration” have steadily petered out (the last major holdouts of Russia demographic doomerism was Barack Obama in this 2014 interview with The Economist, and Michael Rubin for Commentary in 2015,).

    We can now finally say that the “Dying Bear” meme has fulfilled lived up to its own name.

    ***

    Anyhow, preliminary demographic results for 2016 are in.

    Births remained marginally ahead of deaths, both at around 12.9/1,000 people, though the usual ~300,000 annual net immigrants (almost half of them from Ukraine) will ensure that overall population growth remains decidedly positive.

    Births decreased by 2.6%. The full impact of the small 1990s cohort is now being felt, so this was always inevitable. Deaths also declined by 1.2%, despite the ongoing aging of the population. This pretty much completes what I termed The Russian Hexagon, the successor to the so-called “Russian Cross” in the early 1990s when the births and deaths graphs intersected; in the past decade, birth and death rates once again converged, but from the opposite direction, forming a sort of hexagon.

    The Total Fertility Rate seems to have stabilized at around 1.75 children per woman (inevitable question: How much without Muslims/ethnic minorities? Approximately 0.1 children less, based on completed fertility data from the 2010 Census).

    This makes sense. As I pointed out almost a decade ago, Russian fertility preferences are similar to those of Scandinavians and the Anglosphere (~2.5 children per woman), and higher than that of Visegrad/The Med (~2.1 children) or the Teutonic world (1.7 children), so convergence to at least this level was always on the cards as soon as some semblance of economic stability and predictability was restored.

    As I pointed out, this makes Russia’s fertility rates reasonably respectable by European standards; they are only noticeably higher in France, Ireland, the UK, and Sweden.

    Life expectancy is now close to 72 years, which is the highest it has ever been in Russia’s history.

    One way of looking at this is that mortality trends in Russia are basically tracking improvements in the ex-Soviet Baltics (and the City of Moscow) with a lag of ten years, so there is good reason to expect this trend will continue.


    This is primarily linked to the big reduction in vodka bingeing during the past decade, which depressed Russian life expectancy by about a decade relative to what it “should be” based on its GDP per capita and healthcare system. This “alcoholization” began to soar from around 1965, and peaked in the 1990s and early 2000s. According to calculations by the demographer Alexander Nemtsov, something like a third of Russian mortality around 2005 could be attributed to it.

    Blast from the Past

    Incidentally, back in 2008, I created a demographic model for Russia, which enabled me to accurately predict a resumption in both total (2010) and natural (2013) population growth to the exact year.

    In the scenario where TFR is set to a constant 1.75 children per woman, the “Medium” scenario of mortality improvements (which has best tracked Russia’s life expectancy trends to date), and about 300,000 annual immigrants, it predicted the following:

    Medium (TFR=1.75 from 2010) The population grows from 2010, rising from 142mn to 148mn in 2025 and 156mn in 2050. The death rate troughs at 10.8 in 2034, before zooming in to 11.5 by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 13.6 by 2014, before plummeting to 9.7 in 2033, before recovering to 11.9 in 2046 and again falling, although less rapidly than before.

    How does this stack up against reality? The birth rate reached a multi-year plateau at 13.3 children per woman during 2012-2015, when the decline in the numbers of women of childbearing age were exactly offset by rising total fertility rates. The mortality rate fell steadily throughout this period, just as predicted, though it is marginally higher as of 2016 (12.9/1,000) than in the Medium variant (12.6/1,000).

    Overall, this is pretty close, and suggests that the model is fundamentally sound and thus so are its future population projections.

    Of course it has to be adjusted upwards by 2.3 million to take into account Crimea, and any further (re)gatherings of rightful Russian clay.



    As alcohol abuse fell, so did all of the other components of mortality, especially those most strongly associated with it, i.e. deaths from external causes:

    … which includes homicides, suicides, deaths from transport accidents (despite soaring vehicle ownership), and, self-referentially, deaths from alcohol poisoning.

    Part of this reduction was due to cultural change, including the realities of life under capitalism (if you turn up to work drunk, you can be fired, unlike under socialism), part of it was due to economics (more diversity of choice), and part of it was thanks to specific Kremlin policies, such as steady increases in the excise tax on alcohol and restrictions on alcohol advertising.

    Finally, the abortion rate continues to quietly decline. The ratio of abortions to births is now down to 40%, down from well more than 100% during the era from the post-Stalin legalization of abortion to the 1990s. This is still about 2-3x higher than in most of Western Europe and the US, but Russia is longer the absolute outlier it once was.

    Just like the trends with fertility and mortality, this too can be considered a return to “demographic normality” after the Soviet aberration.

    One important point: Conservative talking points to the contrary, there is no hard evidence that high abortion rates actually decrease fertility. Low abortion rates are good though for general health reasons and (depending on your religious views) for ethical ones but they have very little to do with demographic health per se.

    Even though it completely bans abortions, Poland has one of Europe’s lowest fertility rates. For some reason Mark Steyn never did dwell on that…
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:37 pm


    How interesting....


    Around 150,000 Russian citizens repatriated from abroad in 2016

    http://rbth.com/news/2017/03/10/around-150000-russian-citizens-repatriated-from-abroad-in-2016_717073

    Of this number, 20 percent returned from EU countries.

    A total of 146,585 Russian citizens returned to Russia in 2016. Of these, around 30,000 came from EU countries, Izvestia reports (in Russian), citing the Interior Ministry. The Foreign Ministry confirmed that more compatriots are returning as part of a government program to assist voluntary repatriation.

    Around one-third of returnees cite political motives, including serious pressure and harassment from the government and media in their former host countries, Izvestia reports......
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:21 pm

    I am hoping there are enough Russians out there with half a brain that will return because anyone can see the writing on the wall regarding how the US and western countries are going to treat Russian's. This is obvious with their media hypocrisy as of now.
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    Project Canada

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:58 am


    I have long suspected that NATO intelligence services (CIA etc) has been running covert psyops operations inside Russia with the aim to sabotage the country in any way possible, and I believe one of these activities is to suppress population growth by means of aiding the spread of disease (HIV, Tuberculosis etc), promoting culture of having no families and encouragement of suicide. It is a good development that Putin is addressing some of these issues and hopefully the campaign to protect Russia's population growth becomes successful.


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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:47 pm

    Anatoly Karlin: Russia Demographic Data for 2016 Released
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Tue May 09, 2017 2:59 pm

    Not so good news:

    Anatoly Karlin: Russia's Fertility Falls of a Cliff

    It is pointless to make sweeping conclusions based on demographic data from the past one or two months.

    That said, the three month moving average has been down relative to the same period in the previous year since the middle of 2016, and as of this year, has widened to 10%, an unprecedented figure in the past decade.

    Now to be sure, birth rates should – all else equal – be falling, because the diminished generation of the 1990s is now moving into its peak childbearing years. It shouldn’t be falling by 10% in any one year, however. If this new trend continues, Russia’s TFR for 2017 should fall to about 1.65 children per woman from the 1.76 in 2016.

    OTOH mortality continued improving, falling by 1% in the first three months of 2017 relative to same period last year, which translates into a correspondingly greater improvement in life expectancy because of Russia’s ageing population (i.e. for the same reason that Russia’s fertility rate would increase if the number of births was to stay the same).

    So I don’t want to imply all is doom and gloom after having covered Russia’s demographic turnaround for almost a decade.

    However, it does perhaps warrant a reassessment of the weight we attach to different demographic projections.

    For instance, the “Medium” scenario in my Russian demographic model – also the one which I long thought likeliest – involves the assumption that the TFR would converge to about 1.75 (where it has generally been since 2012), with steady convergence in life expectancy to developed world levels, and annual (official) immigrant inflows of 300,000. In this scenario, Russia’s population would actually increase to about 150 million in 2025 and 158 million by 2050 (that’s including Crimea, aka +2 million).

    However, if the recent fertility decline is not a one-year blip, and were to instead to continue falling to about 1.50, then Russia’s population would stagnate (this is from before Crimea):

    "Low (TFR=1.5 from 2010)Population growth starts from 2011, going from 142mn to 143mn by 2023. Then it falls slowly to 138mn by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 12.5 in 2013, falls sharply to 7.8 by 2032, and then remains in the 8-9 range. The death rate troughs at 11.4 in 2032, then rises to 12.9 by 2050. Positive natural increase is never attained."

    Not really the demographic apocalypse long promised by the Western media either, but a disappointing outcome nonetheless.

    It’s also possible that this will further encourage the kremlins to intensify immigration from Central Asia.

    However, according to one comment:

    A rather sharp decrease in the number of births. Dynamics of mortality in this case is the same as in previous years. None of the factors separately (demographic, economic, social) could not give such a result. Since last year greatly decreased the number of marriages (-15%), and this year on the contrary there is a large increase (+10%), apparently it was one of the strongest factors that influenced on the decrease in the number of births. Many couples delayed marriage (for various reasons – such as leap year, problems in the economy) and now of course no children are born, which would have been conceived after the wedding .

    On the other hand, recent years have seen a speeding up of the second birth, to receive maternity capital, which could get up to 31 December 2016. The programme is being extended, but many women gave birth to additional children much in advance of the final date 2-3 years ago. And now they are “not enough” in the number of mothers, that is as if they have given birth faster than they should have.

    It has generally been expected, but nobody expected such a strong decline. If at least part of these thoughts is correct, it still the 2nd half of 2017 to identify. Need to wait 9 months at least.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed May 10, 2017 6:26 am

    Checking monthly is a joke.  It is an annual thing to look at.  In general, Russia's population has been growing for the last couple of years. Now added to the statistics is Crimea as well, something that wasn't possible 3 - 4 years ago.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  GarryB on Fri May 12, 2017 11:00 am

    There are always spikes and troughs in statistics... individual results are not important or relevant... it is trends that show what is happening and short term changes can't be taken to show future trends.

    It is like the old story about the cell that splits every second... start with one in a petre dish and in a years time you will have more bacteria than the whole world could even hold... of course the reproduction rate is not mathematical... when the conditions change or the food or the space runs out the rate changes... the bacteria stop dividing when they get to the edge of the dish and no matter how long you leave it they wont approach the mass of the earth any time.

    Not really the demographic apocalypse long promised by the Western media either, but a disappointing outcome nonetheless.

    An outcome that has not happened yet is no outcome at all.


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    AlfaT8

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  AlfaT8 on Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:53 pm

    As i am watching Europe slowly ethnically cleansing themselves of there own ethnic population, i have begun to wonder whether there is a chance that Russia will follow suite in the near future, anybody have any idea?
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  kvs on Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:06 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:As i am watching Europe slowly ethnically cleansing themselves of there own ethnic population, i have begun to wonder whether there is a chance that Russia will follow suite in the near future, anybody have any idea?

    You can see he resistance to the political correctness totalitarianism in Poland and Hungary. They are not abiding by the insane
    flooding by hordes of people who resist assimilation. The EU is trying to punish Poland and Hungary for their sanity. Russia
    is well beyond these "new Europe" countries that are slowly starting to realize that the EUSSR is not all that great. Russia
    is not diseased with political correctness. It will not parrot insane, self-destructive EU policies since Russia and Russians do
    not feel inadequate in the face of NATO and feel no compulsion to mimic the EUSSR.
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    AlfaT8

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  AlfaT8 on Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:26 pm

    kvs wrote:
    AlfaT8 wrote:As i am watching Europe slowly ethnically cleansing themselves of there own ethnic population, i have begun to wonder whether there is a chance that Russia will follow suite in the near future, anybody have any idea?

    You can see he resistance to the political correctness totalitarianism in Poland and Hungary.   They are not abiding by the insane
    flooding by hordes of people who resist assimilation.    The EU is trying to punish Poland and Hungary for their sanity.   Russia
    is well beyond these "new Europe" countries that are slowly starting to realize that the EUSSR is not all that great.    Russia
    is not diseased with political correctness.   It will not parrot insane, self-destructive EU policies since Russia and Russians do
    not feel inadequate in the face of NATO and feel no compulsion to mimic the EUSSR.

    That's good to hear, i was getting worried.
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    Skandalwitwe

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:05 am

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/russian-economy-2014-2016-the-years-of-sanctions-warfare/

    Some telling infographics from the Awara report (demographics are in the lower part of that huge report)







    Means all-time-high for Russia. Male life expectancy rose from 58,5 in 2003 to 66,5 in 2016.







    The continued improvement since 2014 leaves serious doubt about the existence of an economic 'crisis'. If there was a serious economic meltdown all demographic markers would have worsened esp. the untimely deaths from suicides, alcohol poisonings, murder etc. In fact they are falling even below the Soviet levels. Same for abortions and infant mortality.


    Last edited by Skandalwitwe on Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:07 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)
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    Project Canada

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    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:20 pm




    I wonder what caused the slight dip in the positive birth growth rate from 2014, I really hope the positive trend continue to climb in the next few years and stay at that level.
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    Kimppis

    Posts : 305
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:26 pm

    To quote article on this same page:

    "The full impact of the small 1990s cohort is now being felt, so this was always inevitable." In other words, the number of women in childbearing age is declining.

    Also, it's likely that the impact of the recession was delayed, as often happens when it comes to demographics and public opinion about the state of the country in general... So even thought 2015 was the worst year for the economy, birth rates took a hit only over a year later.

    In any case, the mostly likely scenario is that the Russian TFR will stabilize at around 1.75, which is OK by "Western"/European/developed world standards. Quoting Karlin again: "As I pointed out almost a decade ago, Russian fertility preferences (my note: historically) are similar to those of Scandinavians and the Anglosphere (~2.5 children per woman), and higher than that of Visegrad/The Med (~2.1 children) or the Teutonic world (1.7 children)."
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    PapaDragon

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    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm

    .
    Average life expectancy exceeds 72 years in Russia


    http://www.newspatrolling.com/average-life-expectancy-exceeds-72-years-in-russia/

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    Re: Russian population

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