Russian population and demographics #2

https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/

IMO, Russia may compensate her war & emmigration losses by added former Ukr. populaton, but those people will either stay in annexed parts of Ukraine or be moved to other parts of Russia, & likely/mostly not to places from which emmigrants & mobilized came from.
If she plays her cards right, many of those who fled Ukraine & mobilization will return, but too will take years at best.

Tsavo Lion wrote:https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/

IMO, Russia may compensate her war & emmigration losses by added former Ukr. populaton, but those people will either stay in annexed parts of Ukraine or be moved to other parts of Russia, & likely/mostly not to places from which emmigrants & mobilized came from.
If she plays her cards right, many of those who fled Ukraine & mobilization will return, but too will take years at best.

Yakov Kedmi was asked something about the emigration losses and people running from the country in a recent interview (Russian only unfortunately)

He opined that in his view Russia as an organism is detoxifying itself of the various pathogens and problems that it has, and that as everyone knows such a process ends in excretion of one kind or another

It's not like Russia & GB sending convicts to Siberia & Australia, respectively.
It's rather the brain drain, as during the Lenin's & Stalin's rule the best & brightest left or were killed, resulting in negative selection.

It's not like Russia & GB sending convicts to Siberia & Australia, respectively.

For all the convicts the British sent to Australia, a hell of a lot more from GB and Europe came to get away from their economic situation and oppression of those in charge. The opportunity to actually own some land instead of renting from a land owner who could kick you off any time they wanted and charge you anything they pleased was a powerful reason to leave to countries that spoke english and had similar laws and culture.

It's rather the brain drain, as during the Lenin's & Stalin's rule the best & brightest left or were killed, resulting in negative selection.

If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in... being able to challenge and stand up to the west takes stability and organisation and brains and capabilities most western countries lack... which is why they follow orders.

Here in New Zealand there is a tradition of the OE, or overseas experience... where young people just after they leave high school or university head to the UK or Australia or somewhere else to get a bit of experience of the world before getting a job and having a family.

Some don't come back, but quite a few get experience and meet someone and when they get to having kids realise how dangerous London is and want to move back to New Zealand, because it is 20-30 years behind the UK and US on the crazy scale...

If you flipped the southern hemisphere onto the northern hemisphere New Zealand would be level with Spain and is surrounded by water which moderates its climate... not too hot, not too cold... the goldilocks zone... Australia is better if you love the heat, but if you don't like it too hot there is Tasmania too.[/quote]

If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in...

it would be in a lot batter condition & therefore situation if all those who left or were prosecuted, imprisoned & died stayed or were free instead. General Vlasov is a case in point: he was 1 of the best, but after Stalin couldn't/wouldn't send him reinforsements, he surrendered & switched sides, before his ROA killed many enemies of Germans, incl. Soviets. All ethnic Germans under occupation also left the USSR with retreating Wehrmacht. After the war, many Red Army soldiers defected to the US & British occupation zones. Once u taste freedom, u don't want to loose it!
There is also a thing called "internal brain drain", when educated & highly qualified people r forced to do completely different jobs or not employed at all, thanks to economic & political reasons.
That happened a lot in the 1990s & is happening now.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in...

it would be in a lot batter condition & therefore situation if all those who left or were prosecuted, imprisoned & died stayed or were free instead. General Vlasov is a case in point: he was 1 of the best, but after Stalin couldn't/wouldn't send him reinforsements, he surrendered & switched sides, before his ROA killed many enemies of Germans, incl. Soviets. All ethnic Germans under occupation also left the USSR with retreating Wehrmacht. After the war, many Red Army soldiers defected to the US & British occupation zones. Once u taste freedom, u don't want to loose it!
There is also a thing called "internal brain drain", when educated & highly qualified people r forced to do completely different jobs or not employed at all, thanks to economic & political reasons.
That happened a lot in the 1990s & is happening now.  

None of the stuff you wrote about the 40s has any relevance

Neither do the 90s for that matter

Russia is facing off against the collective Western bloc. Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

China actually.

Lots of professionals in multitude of fields have gone to China for work. Once the Euros face too much trouble they will go to both either Russia or China. Both are pumping money into the high tech field and while Russia only needs a few to which they can pay good, the Chinese want a lot and have plenty of cash to make it happen.

Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.

"Good iron isn't used to make nails & good men r not used to make soldiers", as an old Chinese saying goes. In the country in which Marshall Zhukov once said about high casualties in the Red Army: "women will give birth to more!", many feel it's not worth to be patriotic & dance to government's tunes while sticking 1s neck out. What for did all those conscripts die in Angola, Hungary, Afghanistan, Checnya, Georgia, & on the Chinese border? 1 Taoist said: "I will not sacrifice a single hair from my body for an empire." Amen!

Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

And to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, & Thailand. A few will get to Spain, Canada, & USA.

flamming_python wrote: Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

Someone once said that patriotism is last refuge of the scoundrel. Your sentence about self-preservation and self-enrichement is empty talk, especially in view of the people in governing structures. It doesn't inspire many to stay and fight. Others are just not built for it. Most of the cowards will anyway come back when war is over.
As for morality of ones that left, judging by behavior of many Russians abroad one would think that self-enrichement is a new religion in Russia. Luckily, I've visited the country and know that is not entirely true. 
Anyway, that's all empty talk. Problem here is existing brain drain, and it is happening as we speak. Personally, i know few valuable ones that left and one of them from your hometown.

Sense of national unity in Russia on the rise– poll

More than half of the respondents in a new survey believe the nation has come together amid the Ukraine conflict.

The number of Russians with a sense of national unity has increased dramatically amid Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) reported on Thursday.

According to a new poll from the center published on the eve of Unity Day, 56% of respondents believe there is national unity in Russia. This is “the maximum figure since the measurements started,” VCIOM said, noting that, last year, only 31% of Russians reported sharing this view. In 2012, when the survey was conducted for the first time, those who believed that the country was unified was less than 23%, while 56% believed there was no such thing.

“Russians themselves point to positive changes. Every other person believes that national unity in the country has increased over the past year (49%),” VCIOM said.

Around 15% of respondents view the peaceful coexistence of different people in Russia as a key manifestation of unity, and 9% believe that “at difficult times, Russia comes together” – the same percentage say the “majority of the population supports one leader and his policy.” Among those who believe there is unity, 28% say this is due to the attitude of Western countries towards Russia amid the military operation in Ukraine.

According to the research center, which interviewed 1,600 adults by phone on October 28, all socio-demographic groups have a sense of “the unity of the people” in a more or less similar way – this is stronger in small towns (62%) and villages (60%) than in Moscow and St. Petersburg (both 45%).

As would be expected, fewer and fewer people now say that national unity is declining – 37% – compared to last year’s 61%.

https://www.rt.com/russia/565904-sense-national-unity-russia/

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote: Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

Someone once said that patriotism is last refuge of the scoundrel. Your sentence about self-preservation and self-enrichement is empty talk, especially in view of the people in governing structures. It doesn't inspire many to stay and fight. Others are just not built for it. Most of the cowards will anyway come back when war is over.
As for morality of ones that left, judging by behavior of many Russians abroad one would think that self-enrichement is a new religion in Russia. Luckily, I've visited the country and know that is not entirely true. 
Anyway, that's all empty talk. Problem here is existing brain drain, and it is happening as we speak. Personally, i know few valuable ones that left and one of them from your hometown.

It's not about patriotism, but at least a minimum of faith in the country and society, so as to not be spooked to such an extent that the economy will collapse or that they will need to mobilize you - likely a 20-something IT guy with no military experience - that you simply run away from the country and leave your whole life there behind.

Or the people who ran away had nothing keeping them here in the first place; no jobs, no family, non property and mortgages, just some fantasies about how much better life is in Europe, and decided to use the opportunity to check it out.

Also the people who support the West in the conflict, by any idiot understood by now to be an existential one, or those who by some notion of keeping their Western-market orientated business - flee to the West and join an anti-Russian political movement; as one fellow who I nearly went into business with a year prior did.

In all cases - good riddance.
Because none of these people have much in the way of brains to begin with, by my estimation. I'm sure that as you say, many will return anyway.

@FP
What is the deal with immigrants from Tajikistan getting Russian citizenship in such numbers? Is the business community pushing for it?
From personal experience, people from Tajikistan are of the lowest quality, education wise, and they usually speak bad Russian.
From what I heard from friends and acquaintances, they, pretty much, live in self created ghettos and don't integrate well in Russian society.
I understand that Russia is starved for workforce, but I don't think Tajikistanis are solution for it.

Trend is discouraging imo:
Статистика Министерства внутренних дел Российской Федерации о таджикских гражданах, получивших российские паспорта по годам:
2016 год - 23 тыс.
2017 - 29 тыс.
2018 - 35.7 тыс.
2019 - 44.7 тыс.
2020 - 63.3 тыс.
2021 - 103.6 тыс.
с января по сентябрь 2022 года - 119 тыс 609 человек.
Rough translation:
Statistics of Russian ministry of interior on Tajik citizens that received Russian passports by year:
From 23 thousands in 2016 to 103.6 thousands in 2021 and
119 609 people in period of January through September of this year.

They take all the lowest paid jobs and I'm not kidding.

Around 2008 I believe it was determined that Uzbeks and Tajiks make up for majority of the construction workers in the hard manual labor and street sweepers. I can't remember full figure I seen on ria novosti but it was well over 80%.

Russians themselves don't take these jobs (and that is a problem since it prevents companies to loom at raising wages and caring much about safety).

You are right about that. At least Uzbeks speak Russian. Many Tajiks speak really bad Russian or don't speak at all. Also, they are most likely foreigner group to get indoctrinated by radical islamists.

Well Tajikistan is one of the poorest post-Soviet countries, next to Kyrgyzstan

During the 90s they had a bad civil war and that pretty much wiped the slate clean in regards to a lot of progress they had made under the USSR. But it also ended in victory against the Islamist crazies and prevented ultimately from any Islamic fundamentalism taking hold there. Since then they have been a stable, if underdeveloped country that are overly reliant on remitances from Russia.

Gaining citizenship is a means to scale the social ladder, open new opportunities for kids and improve material wealth. Same as getting citizenship as an immigrant in any country which affords more opportunities than your home one does.
I don't know what's behind the rise specifically this year. Perhaps some new scheme or loophole

I wouldn't say they live in ghettos as such. They just live in cheaper areas with cheaper, older housing but such neighborhoods are always mixed.

They do tend to stick more to their own communities but everyone diaspora that to various extents. They mix more with other Muslim diasporas, although not exclusively. A lot of people come to Russia from the rural areas of Tajikistan and Central Asia. These people are more religious, more conservative, speak Russian worse - but what I noticed is that they pick up the language very quickly, because these people simply have a good work ethic. I had a friend from Tajikistan who came to Russia as a student and didn't speak the language at all. But within a few years had learned it to an impressive degree, made money as a chauffeur before getting into law, set his brother up here with his own garage business, and then got citizenship not long after.
I also a knew a mother and her 12-year old daughter; I used to hire them to clean my place. They were both from a rural area, but again, both had learned Russian to a very conversational degree quickly. The daughter was studying in a Russian school and getting good grades. And they did an excellent job cleaning, even if they tried to slowly increase the charge over time  

On the whole, Russia is a big country and it won't suffer from an infusion of immigrants from Tajikistan.

Sooner or later Tajiks will scale enough of the social ladder and then it'll be the turn of the Afghans to do the lowest-paid jobs.

Afghans have migrated to Tajikistan in huge numbers over the past decade. A lot will be coming to Russia in turn over the coming years. And this will be a greater challenge as unlike with Tajik people, there is no USSR-memory, WW2-experience or even rudimentary Russian-language use to bind Russians with Afghans.

As for Russification measures, I fail to see why any of this is necessary. You won't turn one people into another one and it's folly to try. Tajiks in Russia do not behave like Algerians in France or Afro-Carribeans in Britain; these are all false comparisons. These people from Russia who complained about the Tajiks simply have never lived in the UK, or Germany, or France to see how true failed integration looks like. I have and I can tell you that immigrant Tajiks are a model minority in comparison to some of these other fails.
All kids of all immigrants learn Russian in schools and use it as the default language in society, this process happens naturally.
Forced conversion and changing names is also dumb. Part of the reason why Russia has maintained inter-religious accord is because the Christian, Muslim and other religious authorities have unspoken rules not to proselytize to each other's people. Islamic authorities in Russia will not let what they see as overreach of the Orthodox Church go unchallenged and vice-versa.

I have a former classmate in college who is from Russia and looked asiatic, I found out she was born in Kyrgistan, and then her family moved to Russia when she was 3 years old. But she identifies herself as Russian before moving to Canada. What I'm simply trying to imply is that people immigrating to Russia needs to be taught that they and their future generations will now identify as Russians, regardless of their ethnic background. Such a simple measure helps build an additional layer of protection against NATzO Brainwashing which aims to turn minorities in Russia to become traitors and promote separatist sentiments.

That's her choice, but it's not her obligation. She might not be Kyrgyz BTW. You had a lot of cosmopolitan minorities in Bishkek who emigrated out of there as the country descended into poverty; including some Asian ones such as Koreans. And these people were all Russian-speaking and had little connection to Kyrgyz culture as such; hence why she would simply identify with Russia more.

Also she identifies as Russian in the civil sense. This is normal, in the same way as someone brought up in America and assimilated into American culture would identify as American. Religious and racial affiliation in this case is irrelevant.

@Phst
Sure, if they don't want to accept Orthodoxy as their true faith throw them to the Cossacks. They'll know what to do with them.

Guys, let me be real with you

All Orthodox peoples have turned their back on Russia, with the exception of the Serbs. They did so in favour of the dollar, and the globalist values that come with it; post-modernism, post-gender, post-straightness, post-eating meat, post-whatever.

Belarussians would have done the same, had Russia not acted to secure Lukashenko's little regime in 2020 and help him put down the colour revolution attempt. My ex-girlfriend from Minsk told me this year that Russians are swine, about how Bucha was a massacre by the Russians, and was horrified by the torture that the Azov battallion POWs from Azovstal went through at the hands of their captors. Oh and that Belarussians came about as a people from the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, peoples with whom the Belarussians have more commonality than with the Russians and whose languages Belarussian is closer to than with Russian.
I BTW never heard such baloney from the Ukrainians themselves; we always maintained at least a little maturity in our conversations.
To be more accurate, in Belarus there is a divide between the older and the newer generations.. but the older generations are not getting any younger if you catch my drift.

Yes there is some vestigial affinity still from the Greek and Bulgarian populations towards Russia, but not enough to mobilize action against their regimes' war-efforts. The Bulgarian factories will carry on producing shells and ammo for Ukro needs, the Greeks will continue to transfer BMPs and S-300s to them and that will be that.

And that's it. With the rest of the European peoples we have no affinity; neither the religious one, nor the brother Slavs one which doesn't exist anymore either. All that has been gotten rid of or corrupted, rewritten in the school curriculums and whatever. What Russia is dealing with is in all essence a de-facto racial union of white Europeans, who are on board with Uncle Sam's attempt to finish this menace from the east once and for all. Which I find ironic considering the focus of Western values on multi-racial societies and so on, but there you go.
And yes I'm aware that there is some dissent in Europe, but none of it matters; no-one has the balls or the means to challenge the reigning regimes either way.

And yet some of you persist in ranting on about the threat of the Muslim migrants to Russia, and think someone should throw a rotten egg at them?
Why, what have they done? There isn't a single Muslim people in Russia or around Russia that have outright spat in our faces and taken the sides of those who would destroy us. They have all either taken our side or proclaimed neutrality. I frankly could care less if the Tajiks integrate or not, or what names they have; Russia is big enough to fit them in. If they don't break the law and respect others then that's plenty enough for me.
You fellas on the other hand should have a good look around and reassess how the modern world is and how it works.

Your e x girlfriend sounds like a complete retard.

What's more worrying is what it means for the rest of Belarus though.

@ FP choose your girlfriends wiser next time.
On a serious note, I've noticed that Tajiks are ones that integrate slowest on average when compared with other Central Asian groups. I don't care if they are Muslims or whatever, but it is a fact that Tajiks killed mobilized people in Belgorod region and some islamist groups were sending fighters to Afghanistan.
Also, you have native populations of Tajiks, Turkmens and Uzbeks in Afghanistan. I'm not sure if they could get passports of their respective countries.
My original question to you was why the numbers of Tajiks getting passport quadrupled in a span of 5-6 years? Are there some business circles that are lobbying for that or what is the story?