2024 Iran–Israel conflict

Middle East Spectator, [12/4/2024 08:26]
— / BREAKING: France evacuates all its diplomats and their relatives from Iran – Reuters

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Middle East Spectator, [12/4/2024 08:28]
— // NEW: Qatar and Kuwait have notified the United States they will not allow the bases on their territory to be used for attacks against Iran – Diplomatic Sources

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Middle East Spectator, [12/4/2024 08:32]
— / NEW: The atmosphere within the Israeli War Cabinet has completely changed during the past few days, they are now 'completely focused' on the Iranian threat, Gaza has become a 'secondary priority' – Hebrew Media

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Middle East Spectator, [12/4/2024 08:51]
— / BREAKING: According to two U.S. Officials, a major Iranian attack on Israel is expected as soon as Friday (today), and could possibly include more than 100 drones and missiles against targets in the country – CBS News

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The topic of producing psychosis in Israelis is very good.
But I don't think Iran will settle for that.
If he attacked the USA, I don't see why he wouldn't attack Israel.

The two situations are not directly equivalent . An attack by a lesser force on a greater force , is not seen as existential and less likely elicits a strong reaction . An attack by a greater force on a lesser force , is seen as existential and more likely elicits a strong reaction . But that is not the only reason , Israel is not a normal country , it is an entity that exists through war and needs it for it's survival . Therefore a similar strike by Iran on Israel , similar to attack on Americans in Assad base , will bring a stronger response .

If Iran takes no action , then Israel will 100% likely take similar limited actions , and given this restraint and seeing further attacks , Iran will be pushed to go to full war . If Iran takes limited action , then given Israeli political imperatives , they will 100% continue to take at least similar limited strikes , and given this scenario , Iran will have to go to full war . And lastly a full war by Iran will be reciprocated 100% by Israel . Therefore a full war given all three cases , is more than likely . However , if Iran shows restraint , there may exist a small chance that Israel will back down .

But Iran will be betting on this small chance , at a risk of waiting and allowing time and space for possible attack by Israel . But is it worth it ? It is only worth it , if Iran can immediately detect an aggressive  response by Israel and is able to neutralise it effectively . This is a technical matter . If Iran does not have the capability to go to full war immediately after a limited strike , then it should not take a chance . It should launch all forces .

Intel Slava Z, [12/4/2024 13:11]
Iran warns the US to stay away from war with Israel or risk its troops being attacked.

Axios writes about this.

According to the publication, Tehran conveyed a message to Washington that if the United States intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, American forces in the region will be attacked.

Let us recall that earlier CBS News reported that Iran could attack Israel in the coming hours with hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles.

Intel Slava Z, [12/4/2024 13:15]
The White House declined to comment on whether the United States would intervene directly in the conflict in the event of a military strike by Iran against Israel.

The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff noted that Washington is trying to avoid war in the Middle East and is conducting a dialogue with colleagues in the region.

IRGC Operations Deputy Abbas Nilforoshan: “The Zionist regime made a mistake by attacking the Iranian consulate. He must be punished, and he will be punished."

Turkey also notified the United States that it will deny the U.S to use Turkish Airspace to conduct millitary operations against Iran.

Israeli media: Israeli airspace is virtually clear due to fear of a possible retaliatory attack by Iran.

Know the weapons of Iran's Armed Forces with "Islamic World News":

Fattah Hypersonic Ballistic Missile (https://english.iswnews.com/28711/military-knowledge-fattah-hypersonic-ballistic-missile/)

(https://english.iswnews.com/28711/military-knowledge-fattah-hypersonic-ballistic-missile/) Fattah-2 Hypersonic glide vehicles (https://english.iswnews.com/32142/military-knowledge-fattah-2-hypersonic-missile/)

(https://english.iswnews.com/28711/military-knowledge-fattah-hypersonic-ballistic-missile/) Khorramshahr-4 Ballistic Missile (https://english.iswnews.com/28474/military-knowledge-khorramshahr-4-ballistic-missile/)

(https://english.iswnews.com/28711/military-knowledge-fattah-hypersonic-ballistic-missile/) Khaybar Shekan Ballistic Missile (https://english.iswnews.com/23839/military-knowledge-khaybar-shekan-ballistic-missile/)

Arash-2 suicide drone; World’s longest-range suicide drone! (https://english.iswnews.com/25220/military-knowledge-arash-2-suicide-drone-worlds-longest-range-suicide-drone/)

Shahed-136 Loitering Munition (https://english.iswnews.com/22339/military-knowledge-shahed-136-loitering-munition/)

Shahed 171 (Simorgh) And Shahed Stealth Drones Family (https://english.iswnews.com/29366/military-knowledge-shahed-171-simorgh-and-shahed-stealth-drones-family/)

(https://english.iswnews.com/29366/military-knowledge-shahed-171-simorgh-and-shahed-stealth-drones-family/) Shahed-149 (Gaza) Reconnaissance Combat Drone (https://english.iswnews.com/19068/military-knowledge-shahed-149-gaza-reconnaissance-combat-drone/)

Islamic World News - @iswnews_en

"The Iranian message was we will attack the forces that attack us, so don't f--k with us and we won't f--k with you," one U.S. official told me


https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1778852786353967379

Eugenio Argentina wrote:"The Iranian message was we will attack the forces that attack us, so don't f--k with us and we won't f--k with you," one U.S. official told me


https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1778852786353967379

The message was clear

Biden : ....expect attack from Iran soon .....next 48 hours ......with   .........100 .....drones .......!!





100 drones next 48 hours ? No 10 ( special ) missiles , next month !!

nomadski wrote:
No I disagree . A direct attack from Iranian soil on Israel , resulting in bloodshed and death is needed . Killing about 300 to 500 . Destroying some nuclear facility and a few Ships . Iranians need to set a precedent and be able to kill Zionists ,

Believe me bro, there's nothing I'd love more than to see Israel get the wickedest butt kicking. But the sad reality is, the enemy still has the upper hand militarily--probably why Iran hasn't, to my knowledge, struck already. For all I know, an Iranian missile and drone attack may be underway right this minute but the lack of any attack that I know of after several days suggests the Iranians are content to just scare the zionists and perhaps try to extract concessions from Washington.

Key : p= probability statement true . F= Full strike . L= limited strike . N = no strike . ∆= Implication .

My post earlier did indicate the probabilistic reasoning . Three probable scenarios :

( 1 ) P . Iran limited strike .L = 60% ∆ p. Israel  limited counter strike .L = 50% ∆ p . Iran full  counter counter strike . F = 100% . Or , p . Iran limited strike . L = 60% ∆ p. Israel full  counter strike . F = 50%  ∆ p . Iran full counter counter strike . F = 100% .

( 2 ) p . Iran no strike . N = 10% ∆ p . Israel limited counter strike . L = 50%  ∆ p . Iran full counter counter strike F = 100% . Or , p . Iran no strike N = 0% ∆ p . Israel full counter strike . F = 50% ∆ Iran full counter counter strike . F = 100% .

( 3 ) p . Iran full strike F = 30% ∆ p . Israel limited counter strike L = 0% . Or , p . Iran full strike F = 30% ∆ p. Israel full counter strike F = 100% .

Make a precision strike against Nazinjahoo ad his cronies and at least half of the population of
Israel will cheer it.

Middle East Spectator, [13/4/2024 06:20]
— / BREAKING: IRGC Naval Forces seize the Israeli-linked ship “MSC ARIES” in the Strait of Hormuz – AP

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Middle East Spectator, [13/4/2024 06:27]
— / NEW: The vessel has been redirected into Iranian territorial waters, after special forces landed on the ship

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The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has seized Israel-affiliated commercial vessel the MSC Aries sailing under Portuguese flag in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/21213

The Israeli foreign minister has accused Iran of piracy after it seized a ship (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/21213) in the Strait of Hormuz and called on the world to recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization

"I call on the European Union and the free world to immediately declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guards corps as a terrorist organization and to sanction Iran now," Israel Katz wrote on X.

the free world 

 has accused Iran of piracy 

While Israel commits a genocide and attacks embassies.
What a disgusting piece of s..t

France's Aquitaine-class FREMM frigate Alsace has turned tail from the RedSea after running out of missiles and munitions.

But NATO wants to fight Russia.

— NEW: Powerful electronic warfare systems, like the 'Avtobaza-M' are being deployed in Tehran

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/6065

I may be wrong , and it is a little early to comment , but it looks like Iran's capture of Israeli owned vessel in the PG , was in fact the retaliation by Iran against Israel . I can not say for sure , only after two weeks of Embassy attack , but if say a month has passed ( another two weeks or end of April ) and Iran shows no strike against Israel , then for sure there will not be a strike for Embassy attack .

It looks like , though unlikely , that there will be no strike by Iran , but I think this will further allow Israel to attack again , even more strongly perhaps . This time inside Iran itself . And why this happened ? Who knows , but Iran economic and political position ( right wing liberal group in power ) may be one reason , and military weakness does exist ( Weak Air force and no Nukes ) , may be another reason .

The capture of this Ship is merely a protest , in effect saying Iran will not change course and stop supporting it's allies in the region or capitulate or compromise on other issues .

Iranians are not stupid. Whatever they do is well thought out. If they thought escalation is not in their interest, they won't escalate.

it is amazing how much fear Iran triggers in Israel and the americans.
The israeli staff is hiding in some underground bunker.

I am sure the average israeli appreciate that they will have to content whatever will happen on the surface.
you know? especially they did not decide to bomb an Embassy in another's nation country.

anyway, i saw Ayal appear on the flight radar during take-off out of nowhere.
I have not found yet if it's an israeli command aircraft of just an government transport.



Edit: it took off from an millitary AFB from Banegev.
Heading west towards the Med sea.



Edit 2: multiple sources state it is an israeli doomsday aircraft.

We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat.