2024 Iran–Israel conflict

I think this blue sparrow or Rock air launched ballistic missile has long range , advertised 2000 km ! Booster separated 160 km from Iran borders , therefore missile launched about 400 km away from Iran borders . This is the fear they have of Iran AD ! My guess it has 500 kg conventional warhead . This is only good enough against static target fixed above ground . I saw a video allegedly showing Iran S300 taken out by this ? In conventional role , it is of limited use , since need many aircraft to launch and these can be intercepted by fighter aircraft also . Unless they use non-conventional warhead .


Iran can not escalate too much , since no nukes . Israel will nuke them . This strike may have used a nuke warhead . As I said the intense and short white flashes are very suspect . Iran can not do much else either without nukes . Even sending a land army , if possible , would involve a nuke strike by Israel . In fact Iran can not fight any nuke armed state . It is defenceless . It is insanity to start a conventional war with a nuke armed state . It was insanity to launch ballistic missiles against a nuke armed state , without first showing a nuke deterrent .

In order for Iran to deter Israel and America , it needs nuke MRBM and ICBM . If it had these , then it could support the axis , without coming under direct attack . But even then it's allies will be attacked , even nuked themselves . I heard analysts predict that a war with Hizb Allah in Lebanon , will force Israel to use a couple of small nukes . That is the reality . Unless Hizb Allah gets nukes and so does Ansar Allah . Iran wrongly decided against nukes . Without security no prosperity . Let's hope that recent events change their hearts and minds . Iran can then act more decisively . Launch a land army .

According to the New York Times, Israel's attack on Iran yesterday used a weapon of special technology that allowed it to evade Iranian radar and detection systems and successfully hit an air defense system near the Natanz nuclear facility.

Two Iranian sources confirmed that the S-300 air defense system was indeed damaged.

Judging by the first satellite images, an Israeli UAV strike damaged the 92N6E radar of the Iranian S-300PMU-2 air defense system in the Isfahan area.

https://t.me/infantmilitario/124867

No information on F-35, twitter was showing arma-3 footage that an F-35 was shot down. and pepe escobar made some **** up getting called out by ritter

@ Parfar

I was listening to the same YouTube by Prof. Marandi  . What I noticed was the consensus among speakers about the " emotional , " nature and reason behind the Israeli attack on Iranian Embassy . This may be true . However I do remember hearing on the internet that the Israeli intelligence had predicted that Iran would respond with about 70 BM strikes ! I wish I could find the link for this claim . But if this claim is true , then this attack was far more calculated than Bibi getting a hissy fit !

Then we have to ask , what response , would the Israelis show after this " 70 missile , " strike ? But the nature of this attack on Iran  is a mystery . First hand reports by people on the ground , tell of large explosion(s) and there were early YouTube " posts ," showing bright flashes on or near the ground .

The Iranians , as per previous incidents , are not saying much . The Israelis are not publicly saying anything either . The first case , is somewhat understandable , the Iranians wanting to save face , or avoid an escalation . But the Israeli case is more mysterious . Surely if the objective ( of attacking the Iranian Embassy ) was to allow for an Israeli strike , then they should take credit openly ? With an attack having a significant effect ?

But it seems they have not made a significant attack ,  and the attack by them seems to have involved one to three strikes at best , using their Rock missiles . Even the Israelis would know , that the Iranian AD would probably intercept a few missiles . And launching one to three missiles , is not going to cause any damage , even if they all got through .

Therefore , I must draw the conclusion ( together with the unusual nature of bright flash ) that the single warhead was the entire objective of this Israeli operation and was by itself significant and establish deterrence ! Also despite Iranian bluster of instant massive retaliation , to slightest move , there was .......nothing ! There could not possibly be a retaliation following a nuke strike or EMP strike ! The Iranians are not going to say " ....hey folks , the Israelis just nuked us ...And our Islamic  fatwa is keeping you safe ! "


On top of all this , rumours of sale of 12 ? SU35 ! What are 12 planes going to do ? Protect the Iranian nuke sites against first wave of  Israeli F35 , dropping 2000 lb laser guided bunker busters ? Then what ?

https://t.me/infantmilitario/124964

Two Iranian sources confirmed that the S-300 air defense system was indeed damaged.

Two pro Iranian Iranian sources, or two CIA sources in Iran confirmed...

The irony is that if it is true it will just lead Iran to seek more anti stealth radar technology from Russia... with the right radar to detect and track stealth targets conventional SAMs can be used for the interception...

On top of all this , rumours of sale of 12 ? SU35 ! What are 12 planes going to do ? Protect the Iranian nuke sites against first wave of Israeli F35 , dropping 2000 lb laser guided bunker busters ? Then what ?

12 Su-35s are a potent force that can be moved around Iranian airspace and would not have a real impact other than making an airstrike by Israeli or US aircraft too risky to contemplate. Inflight refuelling aircraft would be vulnerable to long range AAMs and any strike aircraft carrying lots of external fuel tanks and bunker busting bombs would be sitting ducks for modern capable fighter aircraft... at best they would have to abort their missions without delivering payload to target to avoid being shot down and at worst they get shot down and you have air crew captured and paraded through the streets.

Iran making progress in bunker building . According to Newton's formulas , there is a limit to penetration of soil , depending on relative density and diameter . Without penetration , surface impact and explosion useless . One way to stop penetration , is to have reactive armour ( mines ) on the surface . This leaves a nuclear warhead . Again without penetration , it is of limited use . That is not to say , that nukes will not be used to hit our local hospital !

Bunkers are quite safe but the entry isn't not. Few good hit and your bunker is isolated for days if not weeks if the enemy manage to hit again your forces trying to reopen it.

True . There are several ways around this problem : ( 1 ) The first is to have several entrances / exits . ( 2 ) Only one Entrance / Exit , in use and others closed and camouflaged . ( 3 ) Design in mountain / cliff area , not allowing vertical entrance of free fall heavy bunker buster . ( 4 ) Zig- Zag entrances . All this will allow survival of bunkers after initial attacks , but not long term . Suitable for compounds needing to survive initial attacks , by fulfilling function quickly : Missile or plane launched in counter strike . Tanks or vehicles sent out to battle . Stores accessed for supplies , fuel Ammo . Conventional warhead and large bomber easily stopped . Not a nuke missile .

Very concerned about the nature of Israeli strike . Especially those flashes , seem identical to low altitude small nuke explosions . Looks to me like some kind of advanced  nuke / EMP Sub- kiloton charge . Especially if no damage on the ground , then where did warhead go ? Vaporized ? There was a Rock missile or two fired .






Compare with flashes :

Ironically with bunker busters a lot of the damage the do is sending shockwaves through the ground. For trenches on the surface a shockwave moving through dirt leads to it essentially being liquified so it flows and cavities fill in and then it solidifies and people suffocate as the weight of dirt crushes them...

But building bunkers deep under ground you can line the walls and even use levels with layers to absorb shockwaves so they don't propagate to your tunnels which then don't collapse.

Having some sort of system on the surface that can intercept incoming weapons... they don't need to destroy them in the air... simply influencing their trajectory and stabilisation could be enough to defeat them.

If you imagine an APFSDS round penetrating armour as being a nail that has been given an enormous strike from a hammer... it will penetrate a lot of wood or dirt or armour if it is point on and the force goes down the length of the projectile.

But anyone who has hammered in a few nails knows if you get your angle wrong the energy going down the nail that normally allows it to punch a hole in what ever you are nailing can be misdirected and just end up bending the nail and making a bent nail imprint on the surface of the wood you are nailing in.

The hammer force shifted from penetration to destroying the nail.

Deflection or diversion of the penetrator can lead to all that kinetic energy destroying the penetrator instead of penetrating the target and it does not take much... a yaw angle of a few degrees is often enough to do it.

Deflection could continue when bunker buster enters the soil . Concrete slabs presented at angles in layers to tip the device unto it's side !

 

The different layers in composite tank armour can be used but the advantage of depth is enormous... an obvious layer would be to have a lake on top because water not compressing and the behaviour of water being ideal for stopping stuff.

If you lower your hand into water it feels soft and malleable, but hit it hard and it feels like concrete... indeed if you take small arms directed at water it is actually the low velocity low energy low speed bullets that penetrate best... a 9mm pistol bullet can travel several metres, while high velocity assault rifle bullets tend to break up and slow down. HMG rounds like 50 cal rounds tend to shatter on impact because the water turns the energy of the round against itself and it tends to shatter.

It would actually be rather interesting testing different materials... obviously having 2 metres of steel would not be practical or cost effective, but a large body of water could offer protection and also be a local water supply or water supply for the underground base.

Digging under an existing lake would be ideal as long as the lake never dries up and you can waterproof your base to keep it dry.

But different layers of angled rock of different types and hardnesses, with layers of clay and gravel and multiple layers of water.

Keeping the rooms in the base rather smallish and with multiple tunnels between each room so you can escape if one area is damaged... in a sense it is like hide and seek with tunnel turns so even if you have been inside you really can't be sure where the rooms are located because a penetration bomb would need to hit a room to do damage. Blast doors for tunnels and rooms on the upper levels will limit the extend of the damage.

In Vietnam they were very accomplished at building bunkers and tunnel systems, and I would think the Iranians have just as much skill and ability and have had rather longer to experiment and test and train.

Their underground aircraft shelters are interesting... maybe the MiG-35s the Russians have put into serial production are not just for the Russian AF... having a smaller aircraft means it will fit into underground bunkers and down tunnels to reach those bunkers...

Interesting ideas about water and lakes , to capture high speed stuff . This will all work against conventional warheads . But as you mentioned the problem of a nuke earth penetrator strike , turning Earth into plastic flow exists . So I just add that tunnel or bunker sections can be arranged to have flexible joints , allowing movement with the Earth . Or a type of structure , where one concrete circular section , has cone shape ends that fit loosely inside another section ! This design will allow a great deal of movement . Waterproofing between sections , can allow for integral design .





Only bigger and made of concrete . Loosely packed and fine Earth , around tunnels will help .