Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

It would be funny if Russia counters that Poland gets Galica back and Hungary its former territories, And Russia gets everything else including Transnistria and a land corridor through Lithuania to Kaliningrad. That also allows the Ukrainians who long for the West to part of the untermench West.

There can be a peaceful solution . However there can be only one peaceful solution . This solution involves the actual withdrawal of all fighting forces from territory inhabited by adversary / majority civilian populated areas (populations as prior to hostilities ) . This means Ukraine to withdraw from all stated oblast ( by Blinken ) , but also Odessa .

No signatures , no promises , no agreements are or can be valid , regarding proposed movement of troops or deployments in the future . Any response by Russia to be based on existing material conditions on the battlefield or territories , as stated by Russia .

Honestly, it is what Putin is advocating for a long time. He stated openly that "zapadency" won't be happy under the Russian rule.
The thing is not needed.
Aide of that, there are multiple reports that the mood is changing there. As war last a year, tons of people had already lost the relatives. Or were forced to relocate. Or have lost things they have owned. Plus all around ukro propaganda with things like "Bucha" etc. People are reporting that pro-Russian position is fading away even in cities like Odessa. Of course it is an effect of the ethnic cleansing the junta carried, first of all - but still it is an effect. Acquiring more area will be a pain in the ass without a mass relocation campaign, that will be called "ethnic cleansing".
Only Albanians can carry one while nobody recognize Mad

There was never a pro-Russian position in Odessa, at least not at the time the war started. If Russia captured the city immediately, the locals there might have been ambivalent or at least not resisting actively like those in Kherson.

Locals there have switched to writing it 'Odesa' and trying to speak Ukrainian. Although who knows it could be some internet bullshit, and almost certainly is a short-term fad

But either way it was inevitable that as the war will go on and the region provides more conscripts for the Ukrowehrmacht, that the bitterness and resentment against Russia will increase.

Thing is - who gives a shit at this stage. The rate at which they're sacrificing their own male fighting-age population, then there won't be much of anyone left to act on any opinions anyway. Which I don't wish for, personally. But either way their opinions are secondary to geopolitical imperatives and Russia's need to defend against NATO. I'm not going to sacrifice the security of my country because the kind folks of Odessa meekly got burned and strangled in 2014 (or were themselves the crowd outside doing said burning and strangling), and then learned to love their oppressors for it - to the point of supplying tens of thousands of expendables for the Kiev regime in Bakhmut and other places that didn't want them there.

Europe is only too happy to take Ukrainians in. Why would they torture themselves and want to live under russki occupation? The nationalists, supporters of Kiev, and those who want to live in civilized Europe are typically the first to vacate ahead of the Russian advance.
The pattern I can see is that the people that remain in place waiting for the Russians' arrival and don't go anywhere even under the threat of war - are.. well, often exactly waiting for the Russians.
There are also many people among those who fled to Poland and other European countries, who claim they want to return no matter what the result of the war. For them home is where the heart is.

As for settling people from Russia - well there was exactly such a colonization program in Tsarist Russia for pretty much this entire huge strip of land that would become known as Novorussia, that was reclaimed from the Turks, Tatars and Nogais over the course of the 17th-18th centuries. Among the notable aluminaries of which - were one Leonid Bronshtein's family. It wasn't only Jews of course which were encouraged to settle there, but also Russians, Greeks, Germans and of course ultimately more Ukrainians than anyone else; from what was known as Malorussia back then - what we today know as central Ukraine.

So you see relocating people from there by force is not necessary, even if it were feasible in this day and age which I don't believe it is either.

Borders for UA males are already closed for like 10 months at least. Hence the crossdressers or rich men leaving. Females and kids are OK to leave, not the best workforce, but good for demographics. Even for women, it’s not cheap to leave Ukraine and they need loads of cash to survive in the west. No one is showering them with aid, just weapons for their country.

Interesting mix and match. Some Ukrainian armoured assets have been targeted with Lancet drones, others with Grad.

Merouris has pegged this indirect proposal as a neocon con. There is pressure in the US to choose another path but the rabid neocon
freaks will have none of that. This "peace offer" is an obvious attempt to sabotage any peace.

A peace offering can mean a lot. Here are some alternatives:
-Limit of Western ability to continue funding the war. (recalling that the US fiscal deficit is stratospheric with a real risk of default).
-Infighting in the Atlanticist power for fear of escalation get out of control and go to an atomic conflict.
-A way to buy time and freeze the conflict to give Ukraine some breathing room. Quite plausible after the deliberately failed Minsk agreements.
- Fear of losing all of Ukraine, as it would be tragic and mortally demoralizing for NATO (the Secretary General's statements are very much in this direction), as no one would respect her anymore...


Anyway, I think that Russia will not accept a Ukrainian government that is not pro-Russian. Conditions will be determined by Moscow. It is certain that a good part of Ukraine will be annexed and the other part will probably be like Vichy France. Obviously all of this is theoretical.
I do not rule out or agree with the Poles who would be happy to take a piece of Western Ukraine.

We await the evolution of the facts.

Norwegians fighting for Wagner

Medvedev

No deal will be done, the west's bag of tricks no longer works. Stalling for time and trying to save it's face in this conflict is exactly what it's trying to do. Putin and Lavrov stated long ago that the longer the conflict goes on the tougher the agreements would be, I believe now any agreements will be on fully on Russian terms as the west has no leverage now. And the west knows it. I personally think Russia should take all the way to Kiev at least it's a pretty big statement and a big kick in the teeth to take the capital and seat of government. Anything west of Kiev will end up a nazi enclave. And as a bonus for Russia I would take Moldova completely and I don't think it would take much for it to happen. This would most likely drive some Moldovans over the border as refugees further adding pressure to the influx of Ukrainian refugees and I suspect Ukrainian refugees number to vastly increase if Russia makes it to Kiev. This would not only be a kick in the teeth to NATO but also shows the west what happens if u want to play with fire. Another reason in taking Moldova would be to stop it being turned into another NATO project or bio lab base or a NATO member. And I don't think Moldovan government or NATO would be prepared for such event, or have the will to tackle it. It's easy pickings so to speak and it's not as if Russia would face any further sanctions for it as the sanctions package is already maxed out. So Russia has nothing to lose. And it's better to do it now, rather having to go through all the BS in the future and after NATO have trained up, equipped, and other dirty tricks it wants to set up in Moldova.

About light machine guns

I had asked a couple times in this forum why the RPK light machine gun was not seen more often. Back in 2014 I guessed that because it didn't offer much advantage over an AK few militia bothered with one. It turns out what I suspected. Automatic rifles like the Bren or BAR were not really light machine guns, the RPD for the short 7.62 mm was mediocre but was belt fed, and the RPK was worse and the RPK-74  for the 5.45mm even worse still

https://topwar.ru/209654-s-tochki-zrenija-pehoty-rpk-pora-na-svalku.html

That being said, I had read that the US were not happy with the FN Minimi or as they call it M249 SAW, it offered good firepower but because it was used in the desert, the belt fed attracted dust. I remember that there were plans to replace it with heavier barrel versions of the M4 to use magazines, but I suspect that had more to do with the "non invented here" bias and the desire to make money.

Now since they moved on at long last to a intermediate cartridge, the 6.8mm round, the US gets new rifles and machine guns starting this year. Bad time to make the switch.

Back to the Russians, in general infantry is happy with the PKM and its modernized variants, nothing beats the old long 7.62 Mosin cartridge. The problem of dirt intake because of the belt fed was solved with cloth covers for the belt.

Proof that the grass is always greener in the neighbor's garden, I have seen this article

https://topwar.ru/209288-s-tochki-zrenija-pehoty-nam-nuzhen-novyj-pulemet.html

some soldiers claim that they would like a light belt fed machine gun in 5.45mm,  similar to the SAW, they already have the RPK but it is crap. Old RPD is not available and the short 7.62 is too heavy.

I used to believe that there should have been an intermediate cartridge between the too powerful 7mm rounds for bolt action rifles of 1900 and the too weak 5mm rounds, the shortened 7mm like in the AK-47 was better than the 5 mm rounds, but still to heavy. I am not sure if the 6.8 mm the Americans is something fundamentally superior to the short 7.62 mm Soviet but know I am having second thoughts. A compromise round will not be satisfactory either for a rifleman or a machine gunner.

I believe now that what is really important is having a general purpose machine gun that works effectively. And that means the old long 7 mm round. As for the infantry, whatever works better for them. 7 long is too heavy for full automatic rifles, tried and didn't work, logistic hassle of having two different rounds. 5 mm is too weak, but light. If soldiers are going to "spray and pray" anyway, then the lighter round and more ammo is preferable as to the advantages of having a more powerful round, be it the short 7 mm of the AK-47 or a new 6 mm intermediate round.

I think the americans are doing a mistake in going to a 6 mm round, it would be too heavy for a light MG for urban combat and unsuitable for a medium machine gum at long range.

So what was that offer Blinken said to Lavrov which Russian can’t refuse?

After Merkel and Porochenko's speeches about how minsk agreements where made to buy time for ukro army they can forget deals.

Russians are determined to go to Polish border and US are afraid of the incoming offensive.

Big boys - big gifts

better relations with Croatia and Serbia in the future, i guess.