Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

Has anyone read anything about Russia using AN-2 as a slow cruise missile against Ukraine with perhaps a flight of 3 being downed by a Gepard in October?

When did Gepards arrive? EDIT early October.

The fallacy in your logic is where you miss that everyone else's military also gets more modern and more powerful too The only relevant metric is - how powerful militarily is Russia now relative to its contemporaries, versus how powerful militarily the Soviet Union was in say the 80s against other powers then? wrote:

That is not true, not many countries can field strategic nuclear weapons , nuclear submarines, ICBMs and long range cruise missiles. Whereas Russias grasp of fundamental sciences has allowed it to master these things and use tech to increase its strengths. For example, the west used increased accuracy of artillery to build fewer, super expensive shells. Whereas Russia uses some smart shells, but mostly uses drones to ensure the firehose of shells is aimed better. Russia uses advanced bomb aiming systems so its dumb bombs are better targeted while saving smart bombs for strikes that required very high precision. Very few nations can build Iskander, Kaliber etc etc. Russia has uses new tech to make them better and revitalize old platforms. Look at the deadly Russia missile boats and corvettes. No one builds anything like like these. Or the diesel subs that can strike ships and land targets at immense distances. Other then the USA who else has this capability? France, UK and CHina only have ICBMs. AFIK

321 is not a small number, combined with other armed vehicles and other stuff is a force to be reckoned with.

American with polish and czech parents here, there has to be more than 3 polish users on this thread if we are talking about giving western Ukraine to Poland as a reward for them supplying Ukraine and sending their mercenaries to kill Russians. If western Ukraine is not taken it will be used as another proxy or move nuclear weapons closer to Russia other than using that territory to set ground radars for the A-235 systems to have better, chances intercepting potential nukes.

So when Ukraine is fully demilitarized, they Russians should start fucking like rabbits over in Ukraine to increase the population of former Ukraine and start teaching their history to a new generation instead of Azovstan we will get another Russia and its still better than being more poor than Kosovo prior to the war. So not only will russia have an energy leverage over Europe but a full food and grain leverage over western Europe and western Europe will have to find alternatives until than they will have to bow their heads again to Russia. We have a lot more countries wanting to join BRICS and with Russia's new oil arctic projects and fuel gas projects they are more than likely start receiving a more powerful economy than before. If US loses control over western Europe and the countries that are going to BRICS like Saudi Arabia and the UAE any containment on Russia is as good as dead. So, I am 110% certain Poland will jump in this war with all that equipment they have been receiving so that's another reason why Russia is starting to bump up the active-duty numbers to 1.5 million and according to the Russians themselves they state they have enough economic levers to pull before entering a war economy. If Ukraine falls it's all over because western Europe will be under Russian influence out of necessity for survival and because of that reliance western Europe will shift to either China or the US, so i think everyone here is underestimating how much the US needs Ukraine.

Has anyone read anything about Russia using AN-2 as a slow cruise missile against Ukraine with perhaps a flight of 3 being downed by a Gepard in October?

When did Gepards arrive? EDIT early October.

I haven't, but it's something I suggested back early last year

On one of the threads (maybe reserve Soviet equipment or something), I also posted a video dated a few months ago about Russia planning to convert An-2s to unmanned drone use to scope out Ukrainian air defenses, and maybe be used as a suicide drone as well

So if this thing goes nuclear. I wonder what the best way to do it without actually starting a nuclear war. Maybe Russia could hold an atmospheric nuclear test in international waters close to the USA. They can just make the announcement to prove to the US that their nuclear warhead are functional. Maybe 100 miles of the coast of Virgina so they can see the effect right from Washington use a moderate 500 KT warhead. Makes the point without killing everyone.

So if this thing goes nuclear.

Its been at least 75+ years since atomic/nuclear weapons have been developed. The situation in Ukraine and the behavior shown by GATO demonstrate that certain individuals downplay the destructive power of these weapons. I believe new weapons of mass destruction with a minimum destructive power of 1,000,000 nuclear weapons (continental buster class) need to be introduced to preserve the peace for another century or so.

321 is not a small number, combined with other armed vehicles and other stuff is a force to be reckoned with. wrote:

Assuming its "a force" more likely it will be eased in in dribs and drabs so that Russia can digest them well. How are you gonna stage them, train the force , get it to the launch point. etc etc.

It's nothing to worry about. USAF planes while generally very good are notoriously not rugged, they require "western" levels of infrastructure, you cannot hide them in some hangar and fly them out from a dirt stripe like with MiG-29. I expect they'll get calibrated at some obvious location.

Insanity. It is almost like they are forcing Russia into declaring war on Ukraine. They either wish it so they can in turn amplify and also they hope that the current Russian regime will cave either thru public pressure or by some kind of coup. Do they want ww3? Maybe their desire to build back better requires it. These people are insane. And our mainstream media is in lock step. There is some kind of power guiding western institutions towards specific goals. Where does this kind of power come from and where does it funnel to? In order to explain the unified push like this it seems to me there are is some shadow government. wrote:

Society is an organizational structure. It would be absurd if there was no such order involved. But most people believe that this
is "conspiracy theory" as if society is a stochastic system. It is rather obvious by now that so-called democracies are sham
facades where oligarchies run the economy, the media and the political process.

We now have the whole of U-rope coming out as a colony where no local regime serves national interests. Where is all the due
process and representative government? The deciders are invisible and the politicians are all sock puppets.

It's nothing to worry about. USAF planes while generally very good are notoriously not rugged, they require "western" levels of infrastructure, you cannot hide them in some hangar and fly them out from a dirt stripe like with MiG-29. I expect they'll get calibrated at some obvious location.

I see all this and the tank hoohaa as media cover for a NATO force to start striking from NATO territory

It's unrealistic to hand over all these tanks to the Ukrainians batch by batch and expect it to make any difference, or for Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s and from some dirt airstrips. None of it makes any sense. The only encouraging thing is that the Americans and Brits are reluctant to hand over any tanks; which does make it seem as if they're earmarked for Ukrainian forces indeed

But the planes one way or the other will have to fly from NATO airbases. Possibly that's been happening already, and would explain why the Ukrainian air-force is still flying (along with all the spare planes they're getting).

Hence why Russia needs to keep up with its current tactic of shooting at any enemy planes in Ukraine from territory of Russia and Belarus.

This also opened up that Russia has to increase its AWACS numbers so there is more in the air constant bases to scan the skies above Ukraine for lower altitude planes. Ground based is good enough for medium to high altitude to guide the Russian jets and its missiles.

Quite a good discussion on The New Atlas channel, about the composition and applications of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group.

The jet drivel is the same no-fly zone drivel we had back in February and March of 2022. It does not matter if these jets fly out
of Poland or Romania. Their survival over Ukraine will be short. The Kiev regime has already been using these NATO airfields
for its Mig-29 (and other I believe) jet sorties. It has not stopped these jets from being shot down.

The insane hubris in NATzO is really something. It is as if Russia has no air defense systems and is just like Iraq. I agree with Flamming
that this smells of an intervention force being assembled in Poland under the guise of preparing weapons for Ukraine.

I doubt that NATO militaries are really full of such arrogant fools. These people are professionals and can be counted upon to assess Russian capabilities in theatre objectively and with a level head. Behaving otherwise simply won't do. For military people, estimating your own and your adversary's strength correctly is a matter of life and death, and nothing but.

Therefore I suspect that their public statements hint at a different intent than the one they're actually considering. They're not going to send their own pilots out in those kamikaze runs the Ukrainians have been only too happy to perform. If they come in, so they'll come in in force.

The rules about NATO  not intervening collectively in operations ,  in cases where members carry out aggressive / offensive measures , are made to be broken . They have broken this rule before , as say in Libya . Therefore operations will be carried out , collectively in Ukraine . Russia , despite it's warning of acting directly against NATO in Ukraine or Poland , will not do this  . NO nuclear war over Ukraine , but a party and the cutting of the Cake ! This happened before in Syria . Therefore the outcome is one of partition , same as Syria .

NATO , will be happy with partition , in their view this is an expansion . Russia will not , since they view this as retreat . In my view ,  Russian position , given the realities on the ground , one of indecision and dithering about strategy in Ukraine is a hindrance . Russia finally accepting the ethnic and military realities , will mean accepting the partition and expansion of NATO in West and Russian expansion in East .

This strategic decision , will influence tactics . The main one is the decision to physically partition Ukraine , by cutting it in half . The best way to cut it in half is to destroy the Bridges on Dnieper now . This act will change not only the physical dynamic of war , but will change everyone's attitude towards it . Stationing of NATO nuclear missiles in the West , can be reciprocated by Russia , either in Ukraine or in Orbit .

The rules about NATO not intervening collectively in operations , in cases where members carry out aggressive / offensive measures , are made to be broken . They have broken this rule before , as say in Libya . Therefore operations will be carried out , collectively in Ukraine . Russia , despite it's warning of acting directly against NATO in Ukraine or Poland , will not do this . NO nuclear war over Ukraine , but a party and the cutting of the Cake ! This happened before in Syria . Therefore the outcome is one of partition , same as Syria .

NATO , will be happy with partition , in their view this is an expansion . Russia will not , since they view this as retreat . In my view , Russian position , given the realities on the ground , one of indecision and dithering about strategy in Ukraine is a hindrance . Russia finally accepting the ethnic and military realities , will mean accepting the partition and expansion of NATO in West and Russian expansion in East .

This strategic decision , will influence tactics . The main one is the decision to physically partition Ukraine , by cutting it in half . The best way to cut it in half is to destroy the Bridges on Dnieper now . This act will change not only the physical dynamic of war , but will change everyone's attitude towards it . Stationing of NATO nuclear missiles in the West , can be reciprocated by Russia , either in Ukraine or in Orbit .

Russia will act directly against NATO in the Ukraine as any sort of 'partition' will only be an armistice and a very temporary one, while whatever is left of the Ukraine is pumped up with weapons again. Allowing NATO/Ukraine this breathing room does not favour Moscow in any way; the war when it resumes will be harder while public frustration with the government will mount over their readiness to do one retarded deal after another that the West has no intention of keeping to.

And indeed this can only be NATO's strategy, if they do propose some sort of division. Partition of the Ukraine is not a victory for them. It doesn't solve the Russia problem, nor the growing world multi-polarity problem that their failure to collapse Russia has ended up accelerating. To stop all this, in their mind, a decisive defeat of Moscow is a must. It cannot be seen to have gotten away with even minor territorial gains followed by stabilization. As that would amount to a successful challenge against Washington and the very public dismissal of its 'rules based order' (where it's the one that makes the rules for everyone else).

When the nuclear weapon was removed from 404, the package consisted of 600+ Ch-55 missiles.
That package was assigned to 25 pcs of Tu-95 and 14 pcs of Tu-160 that were stationed there. As Russia owned much more Tu-95, the number of Ch-55 kept there would be a "600" multiplier.
That makes hundreds of ready-to-use decoys that can be released by regular cruise missile carriers and are impossible to distinguish from the armed rockets.
On the other hand, An-2 is a plane filling a very important niche of regional transportation in harsh conditions. Russia seriously lacks them, that is why so many modernization programs are being carried for a planes that are close to 80 y/o ...

The An-2 can fly very slowly, and at very low altitudes. Fit it with some fuel inside its storage compartment, and you can get some long ranges out of it. Fit it with some thermobaric munitions, and it will make a big boom.

A rather good guided weapon to sneak up to the enemy with.
You're right, they're still fulfilling their niches, but there are many models sitting around whose airframe resource has been used up already, and which are no longer safe for human piloting; but which will be able to make their way unmanned to a target given the appropriate electronics.

informative video.