Russian Civil Aviation: News #5

Again, since was mentioned the lack of engines for the Tu-324, there is actually official data from Salyut about that. Unfortunately I do not know the status of it, but since the core already exists, probably the full engine could be in service before 2029.

This is a presentation from Salyut about engines for Regional aircrafts, high altitude drones and small transport jets.

https://aviatp.ru/files/newturn/Presentatsiy/9_Proekty_dvigateley_dlya_MRA.pdf

In particular it shows the SM-100 for the Yak-130M and the a high bypass derivative with the same SM-100 core but new cold section with 5 tons of thrust (49.2 KN (KiloNewton) proposed for the Tu-324 and for the il-112V.

https://i.servimg.com/u/f75/20/17/44/07/screen15.jpg

ТРДД для легкого транспортного самолета

По результатам расчетной оценки на основе газогенератора СМ-100
может быть разработан ТРДД для легкого транспортного самолета типа
модификации Ил-112В с ТРДД.

Translated:
Turbofan engine for light transport aircraft

Based on the results of a calculation based on the SM-100 gas generator a turbofan engine could be developed for a light transport aircraft such as modifications of Il-112V with turbofan engine.

https://i.servimg.com/u/f75/20/17/44/07/screen14.jpg

Оценка возможности создания ТРДД для применения в составе высотного беспилотного ЛА проводилась в соответствии с обращением
ФГБУ НИЦ «Институт им. Н.Е. Жуковского».
Проведенные расчеты показали, что разработка двигателя этого класса возможна на базе газогенератора ТРДД СМ-100. При этом
необходимо отметить - по диаметрам, осевым размерам и весу КВД СМ-100 меньше КВД ТРДД АИ-222-25 и АИ-22 (которые планировалось
использовать для создания ТРДД регионального самолета и высотного БЛА), что позволит разработать двигатель с меньшей сухой массой

Automatic translation

Assessment of the possibility of creating a turbofan engine for use in high-altitude unmanned aircraft was carried out in accordance with the request
Federal State Budgetary Institution Research Center "Institute named after. N. E. Zhukovsky."
 The calculations showed that the development of the engine of this class is possible on the basis of the SM-100 turbofan gas generator. Wherein It should be noted - according to the diameters, axial dimensions and weight of the HPC SM-100 less than the high pressure of the AI-222-25 and AI-22 turbofan engines (which were planned
to be used to create turbofan engines for regional and high-altitude aircraftUAV), which will allow the development of an engine with a lower dry weight

Comparison table of regional aircraft turbofan engines

https://i.servimg.com/u/f75/20/17/44/07/screen13.jpg

GarryB wrote:That engine table is not very flattering... the SM-100 is smaller and lighter than the other engines listed but its fuel economy and power are rather poor.

The proposed TRDD engine from Salyut looks better, similar size and weight but better fuel efficiency and more power...

That is because the SM-100 is a low bypass turbofan meant to be used in a drone or a trainer aircraft. Like the Al-222. Notice the bypass ratio is 0.9. The high bypass ratio engines have better fuel consumption. The proposed engine is basically the SM-100 engine core with a high bypass turbofan section.

Finally we have a name for the new Let L-410 and An-28 replacement: Osvey

https://aviation21.ru/samolyot-lms-401-budet-nosit-imya-vtorogo-po-velichine-ozera-belorussii/

The LMS-401 aircraft will be named after the second largest lake in Belarus
02/25/2024, 14:53

In July 2023, an interdepartmental program for cooperation in the field of aircraft manufacturing between Belarus and Russia was adopted. The parties signed an agreement that opens up new prospects for the joint development of the aviation industry, and Minsk took the first step into the number of countries with their own aircraft industry.

As part of this program, it is planned to develop and launch into mass production a new aircraft, which is called the Osvey. The development will be carried out jointly by specialists from Belarusian and Russian design bureaus, the production of components and aircraft systems will be carried out both in Russia and in Belarus, and the final assembly will be organized at one of the enterprises in Belarus,toldon the air of the Belarus-1 TV channel, the head of the industrial planning department of the State Military-Industrial Committee (GVPK) Dmitry Stefanovich
“We are starting joint development. The project is called "Osvey". A new aircraft, developed from scratch. Development will be carried out at GVPK enterprises and enterprises of the Russian Federation, after which production will be organized. The necessary equipment is being purchased and the corresponding workshops are being built. Production will take place both in the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Belarus. The full production cycle will be organized at enterprises of the Republic of Belarus,” said D. Stefanovich.

The agreement that the Belarusian official is talking about was signed on July 9, 2023 in Yekaterinburg during the visit of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Roman Golovchenko to the Innoprom-2023 exhibition. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Pyotr Parkhomchik announced that the aircraft would be called LMS-401. Now, according to Dmitry Stefanovich, the full name of the aircraft has become known: LMS-401 “Osvey”.

According to the already established tradition of giving new light passenger aircraft the names of large lakes: TVRS-44 “Ladoga” and LMS-901 “Baikal”, the new project was named after Lake Osvey or Lake Osvey. The reservoir is located in the Verkhnedvinsk district of the Vitebsk region near the border with the Pskov region and Latvia. Osvey is the second largest lake in Belarus.

The first 19-seat LMS-401 Osvey turboprop aircraft should be produced in 2026, and by 2030 it is planned to build from 85 to 100 aircraft. OJSC 558th Aviation Repair Plant (Baranovichi) and JSC Ural Civil Aviation Plant (Ekaterinburg) will be involved in the development. The 558th Aircraft Plant will carry out the final assembly of the aircraft, for this it is necessary to build 20 thousand square meters of additional production space in Baranovichi. The 407th Minsk Civil Aviation Plant will also be involved in the production of components.

The plane will have a fixed landing gear. The main priority is given to limiting the cost of a flight hour and reducing the cost of the aircraft. The power plant is a VK-800 turboprop engine, and the on-board equipment is a complex developed by KRET in 2019.

And here some more details about the project in an article from 3 weeks ago.
https://aviation21.ru/pervye-rossijsko-belorusskie-samolyoty-lms-401-planiruetsya-vypustit-cherez-dva-goda/

The first Russian-Belarusian aircraft LMS-401 are planned to be released in two years
01/29/2024, 17:49

The first Russian-Belarusian 19-seat turboprop aircraft LMS-401 should be produced in 2026, and by 2030 - from 85 to 100 aircraft. About itreportedDeputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Pyotr Parkhomchik in an interview with the Belarus 1 TV channel following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in St. Petersburg.

Pyotr Parkhomchik noted the active work of the two countries in the aircraft industry. He recalled that in 2023, during the visit of the Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko to Yekaterinburg at the Innoprom-2023 exhibition, an agreement was signed between the Belarusian JSC 558th Aviation Repair Plant and the Russian JSC Ural Civil Aviation Plant. 19-seater aircraft. At the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister announced that the aircraft was named LMS-401.

“Today we are developing and creating this aircraft together, conducting development work. The first two aircraft should be produced by 2026. It is very important that we already have a firm order today - the minimum number of aircraft that we will have to produce before 2030. This is 85-100 pieces. If we successfully complete our tasks, there may be more of them,” said Pyotr Parkhomchik in St. Petersburg.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister, at the 558th Aviation Repair Plant in Baranovichi, where serial production of the LMS-401 aircraft will be carried out, it is necessary to build 20 thousand square meters of additional production space for machining and an additional building in which assembly will be carried out, and also purchase about 100 pieces of sophisticated equipment. In addition to the Baranovichi aircraft repair plant, the 407th Minsk Civil Aviation Plant will be involved in the creation of the aircraft.

Considering the given characteristics of the new machine, we are talking about replacing the Czech L-410, which was first produced only at the Let Kunovice aircraft plant in Czechoslovakia, and in 2018 the production of these machines was mastered at UZGA in Yekaterinburg. At the HeliRussia-2023 exhibition, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Oleg Bocharov reported that the aircraft will have a fixed landing gear. The main priority is limiting the cost of a flight hour and production costs. According to him, the power plant of the new aircraft will use the VK-800 engine, and the on-board equipment will be a complex developed by KRET in 2019.

At the Innoprom-2023 exhibition, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government - Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said that certification of the LMS-401 aircraft is scheduled for 2027, and its commercial operation should begin in 2028.

The closest analogue of the joint Russian-Belarusian project can be called the An-28 light passenger aircraft, which is equipped with two 960-horsepower TVD-10B turboprop engines, developed by the Omsk Engine Design Bureau (OMKB OJSC, a branch of UEC-Saturn). The An-28 was produced in Poland. On January 24, 2024, the Federal Air Transport Agency issued the State Research Institute of Civil Aviation an additional type certificate No. FATA-STC030339, which increases the assigned life of the AV-24AN propeller of the An-28 aircraft from 6,000 to 9,000 hours. Currently in Russia, the aircraft is in the fleet of two airlines: Siberian Light Aviation (SiLA) and the Kamchatka Aviation Enterprise.

The Tu-214 is obsolete. The MC-21-400 is much better.

"Obsolete" by western money grubbing standards. Use of composite materials is an aesthetic choice and not an absolute measure of functionality. As for engines and avionics they are obviously replaceable.

Using composites is not an "aesthetic choice". It enables a high aspect ratio wing. This increases lift. Which means you can spend less fuel and thus have more range.

MS-21 is certainly more modern than the Tu-214 and offers better economics.

But, the Tu-214 is already flying passengers while MS-21 is still not.
Russia needs a shitload of this class of aircraft to replace the existing (ageing) fleet that manly consists of Boing-737 and Airbus 320.
Even by 2030, MS-21 production will not be enough to replace all the above as they get retired and/or disposed off. I do not believe the over-optimistic production per year forecasts.
Tu-214 production is needed to fill the gap.
Furthermore, there will be demand from friendly countries: Cuba, N. Korea, Iran, Syria, Belarus etc.
In addition the Russian Government fleet will not buy 2 pilot airplanes like the MS-21. They will choose the Tu-214 instead.

This is a misconception. The Tu-214s for the Aeroflot order are going to be built at a new construction building at Kazan. And it will need import substitution of several systems as well. Ramping it up from one a year to like a dozen will also require huge investments. It will compete for the same limited resources as the MC-21. The engines and APU are built at the same facilities at Aviadvigatel and Aerosila for example. I doubt the new import substituted Tu-214s will arrive any sooner than the import substituted MC-21s.

The factories which make the SJ-100 and MC-21 are already concurrently building several aircraft. Once all the components are finished and certified they will be added to those aircraft.

I still stick by what I said. But Chemezov isn't giving me any warm and fuzzy feelings that's for sure.

Rostec reported a possible delay in the start of commercial operation of the MS-21 aircraft
02/29/2024

There will be no deliveries of MC-21 aircraft to airlines until the end of 2024; the start of commercial flights should not be expected before 2025, this was stated by the General Director of the Rostec State Corporation Sergei Chemezov on the sidelines of the annual address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly.

Deliveries of MS-21 passenger aircraft are postponed to 2025, “maybe even to 2026”, he answers to the journalists at Interfax.

The head of Rostec explained the reason for the delay by the fact that the tests of the aircraft have not yet been completed. The head of the company expressed concern for the safety of all passengers, emphasizing the need to complete testing before the start of mass production.

“Our tests have not yet been completed. As soon as we complete the tests, we will report the results immediately. We are still worried about the safety of all of us - we will fly on these planes. We would like to [complete the tests - AR] as quickly as possible, but now I can’t say... We’re waiting,” Chemezov said.

Comprehensive program development of the aviation industry until 2030 stipulates that in 2024 the first six MS-21 aircraft should be transferred to Aeroflot.

Currently, production aircraft of the MC-21-310rus version are being assembled at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant. Several aircraft are awaiting deliveries of Russian components. There are also two prototype aircraft undergoing modification in Irkutsk. It was expected that aircraft 73055 would take off after replacing imported components back in November 2023; 73057, in accordance with initial plans, should take off in the second half of April this year.

According to information coming from IAZ, the aircraft are not yet ready to resume flights in a Russified form, the reason is a delay in the supply schedules of aircraft components by Russian enterprises.

https://aviation21.ru/v-rostexe-soobshhili-o-vozmozhnoj-zaderzhke-nachala-kommercheskoj-ekspluatacii-samolyota-ms-21/

That was easy to be expected.

In commercial aviation even a supplier change for an aircraft or engine manufacturer takes years to be fully approved, since you need to redo all tests associated with the parts related with the change.

Normally this is done in parallel, and you still have the previous supplier providing you parts in the meanwhile.

UAC has moved up the delivery dates for new civil aircraft, by Anastasia Lvova for RBC. 02.29.2024.

UAC: delivery dates for MS-21 and Superjet 100 aircraft have been postponed to 2025–2026.

UAC has moved up the delivery dates for Russian MS-21 and Superjet 100 aircraft to 2025 and 2026. The Ministry of Industry and Trade explained this by “objective technical difficulties” of projects of this scale.

The delivery dates for new Russian civil aircraft are being shifted: deliveries of the MC-21 have been postponed to 2025, regional Superjet 100 to 2026. RBC was informed about this by the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC, part of Rostec). Deliveries of the Il-114-300 are now expected in 2026, the UAC added.

“Cooperation companies are faced with objective limitations - completely new systems, recreating competencies from scratch, the need for full testing and launching mass production under time pressure,” the UAC explained the shift in deadlines. A representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also pointed out “objective technical difficulties” in implementing projects of this scale.

“Import substitution programs in civil aviation are being implemented in an unprecedented time frame by world standards. There are no similar Russian examples of comprehensive import substitution of all systems and assemblies, including avionics (avionics), engines, and aviation materials in modern world aviation. All global aircraft manufacturers rely on broad international cooperation, with suppliers from several dozen countries. Russia will have to cope on its own,” the ministry points out. The Ministry of Industry and Trade did not say what difficulties arose with the projects.

The shift in aircraft deliveries was announced on February 29 on the sidelines before the president’s annual address to the Federal Assembly by the head of the Rostec state corporation, Sergei Chemezov.

The press service of Rostec added that in 2026 it is planned to transfer 30 new Superjet 100 aircraft to the companies. Regarding the MC-21, they explained that even the final appearance of the aircraft has not yet been formed: “In the process of replacing foreign components with domestic ones, the weight characteristics are changing MS-21. The final appearance of the completely import-substituted aircraft will be formed in the second half of this year.”

The Federal Air Transport Agency, in turn, reported that they “work in close and constructive cooperation with the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, developers, aircraft manufacturers and air carriers”: “It is extremely important to ensure the guaranteed sustainable functioning of Russian air transport for the long term on the basis of modern and reliable domestic aircraft.” . They recalled that in mid-2022, decisions were made to complete the certification of SSJ100 with PD-8 engines in December 2023, MS-21 with PD-14 in December 2024: “These decisions were truly unprecedented in the history of global aircraft and engine construction . However, the deadlines for presenting aircraft for certification were delayed for objective reasons. The usual time frame for world aviation to create mainline aircraft and bring them to market is in practice 10–12 years, engines for such aircraft – 12–15 years.”

RBC sent inquiries to the Ministry of Transport.

Several RBC sources in the aviation industry reported that the MS-21’s characteristics are still inferior to the previously stated parameters: the flight range has been reduced from 5 thousand to 3.5 thousand km, the passenger capacity will be reduced from 211 seats to about 135. This seat capacity is more likely to correspond to the version that was originally developed aircraft MS-21-200 than the MS-21-310 ordered by Aeroflot. For comparison: the Tu-214 aircraft designed in the USSR is capable of carrying 210 passengers over 5.9 thousand km, and the “long-range” version of the Superjet (SSJ100 LR) flies 4,320 km and carries 103 passengers each.

Rostec insists that already in its current form, the MS-21 corresponds to most of the imported fleet of Russian airlines - both in terms of flight range and number of seats. The parameters that were “widely accepted” by Russian airlines were flight ranges of 3 thousand km and a capacity of about 150–170 passengers.

When were the planes planned to be delivered?

According to the comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry until 2030 (approved in June 2022), the aviation industry pledged to supply 609 aircraft in the segment of long-haul and regional aviation (these aircraft are produced by UAC factories). We are talking about 142 Superjet 100, 270 MS-21, 70 Il-114 and 115 Tu-214. Deliveries of Superjet and Tu were scheduled in the document from 2023, MS and Il - from 2024.

But in fact, last year only one commercial customer received one new aircraft: Azimut Airlines in November replenished its fleet with another SSJ100 from the last batch of aircraft that have not yet been imported. And Red Wings, controlled by Rostec, announced at the end of the year that it had received the first passenger Tu-214 out of 11 aircraft being restored to airworthiness.

Aeroflot expected new SSJs and MS-21s this year. At the same time, the company has a firm contract with UAC so far only for 18 MS-21-310 and 34 SSJ100. According to the passport of the investment project for preferential leasing of aircraft to Aeroflot, the first SSJs were supposed to arrive to the carrier before the end of 2023, but delivery was pushed back to the third quarter of 2024, Kommersant reported . In the fall of this year, Aeroflot was already expecting a batch of the next eight SSJs, and in the winter - eight more. By the end of this year, the first five Tu-214s (there is no firm contract) and the first six MS-21s were expected to be transferred to Aeroflot.

In addition to Aeroflot, the Far Eastern Aurora is expecting deliveries of Russian aircraft starting in 2021. Preferential leasing of equipment to this company was also advanced from the National Welfare Fund (NWF). Four Superjets were supposed to arrive in November-December last year.

The airline from Tatarstan, UVT Aero, also announced its interest in Tu-214 aircraft . There were no firm contracts reported for this carrier.

RBC contacted these airlines for comment.

Director of the AviaPort agency Oleg Panteleev notes that a shift in delivery dates “may have a more painful impact” on Aurora than on Aeroflot: unlike Aeroflot, which flies based simply on the availability of carrying capacity, the Far Eastern carrier faces social obligations, and there is also a presidential instruction to increase transportation in the Far East, the expert recalls.

In general, airlines will wait for planes as long as necessary, because purchasing imported equipment under sanctions is problematic. And contracting aircraft without state support measures (leasing for Aeroflot and Aurora will be subsidized from the National Welfare Fund) is not attractive for carriers, Panteleev reflects on the small number of firm contracts concluded so far: “That is, airlines now do not understand how future ones can be structured.” transactions for the purchase or lease of aircraft. Obviously, it is necessary to resolve the issue of attracting funds from the National Welfare Fund, but whether the government is ready to subsidize other airlines is a question. Therefore, carriers have taken a wait-and-see approach. Some people write letters of intent, nothing more.”

The shift in supplies was expected, notes Roman Gusarov, editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal. “Initially” (in 2022) the deadlines were too optimistic. “But in aviation, it’s not like everything goes smoothly the first time. This is especially true for Superjet, since the aircraft was originally developed in international cooperation, and now it is essentially being designed anew,” the expert notes. Gusarov also suggested that the delivery of the Superjet was delayed for a longer period due to the PD-8 engine: “Its testing has not yet begun normally. This will take two years.” UEC (a manufacturer of aircraft engines, part of Rostec) clarified that “at the end of December 2023,” during tests, the need for additional work on the PD-8 engine was identified.

Airlines will not suffer much from the postponement, notes Gusarov, because the aircraft planned for delivery at the end of this year would still first only go into trial operation, “for rollback.” “At the same time, today carriers still have enough aircraft. The mainline fleet has decreased by 10% since the beginning of 2022, but passenger traffic has decreased even more - from 128 million in 2019 to 105 million in 2023 (by 18%). That is, there is still potential for increasing traffic, I think, up to 115 million on the current fleet. At the same time, due to sanctions, the number of foreign destinations where our companies can fly is limited, and in Russia passenger traffic is already close to the limit,” the expert concluded.

https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/03/2024/65e0655c9a79477520fd4836

This Kommersant article has more information. Some of the things it says seem like falsehoods though. Like they claim engine power in the MC-21 cannot be increased by 20%. This is BS since the PD-14M would have that power level and is part of the Aviadvigatel engine roadmap. I think they are mixing up data from the MC-21-200 with the MC-21-300 and MC-21-400.

Russian planes are difficult to lift
Delivery dates for all new civilian vehicles have been pushed back by a couple of years.
03/01/2024

The program worth hundreds of billions of rubles for the supply of domestic aircraft is being postponed by two years. We are talking about all civilian projects - MS-21, SJ-100, Tu-214, Il-114 and Baikal. The aviation industry does not have time to test aircraft within the deadlines set for 2022, and their characteristics do not correspond to those originally planned. Thus, the flagship MS-21 became almost 6 tons heavier, which is why its flight range and altitude were significantly reduced. The Ministry of Industry and Trade expects that supply plans will be made up in the future. A number of Kommersant sources consider these expectations to be impossible to meet in the conditions of the Northern Military District. Some of them expect a fleet shortage and assume that carriers will have to look for aircraft in friendly countries.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Rostec state corporation have officially announced the postponement of the delivery of all Russian passenger aircraft being developed to replace the Western fleet - SJ-100, MS-21, Tu-214 and Il-114-300. Deliveries were supposed to begin in 2024, but have now been pushed back to 2025-2026. In addition, according to Kommersant, the certification of the Baikal aircraft of the Ural Civil Aviation Plant has been postponed to 2024, the start of deliveries to 2025.

The characteristics of all these aircraft, for various reasons, do not correspond to those initially declared, which is why they do not have time to undergo certification.

Thus, for the flagship of the Russian fleet MC-21-310, the key problem was a heavier airframe.

Based on the manufacturer’s data, the weight of the empty import-substituted aircraft compared to the previous version (MS-21-300 with an airframe using foreign components and Western engines) increased by 5.75 tons. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, this was due to the use of domestic composite and new aircraft systems.

As a result, the flight range with a maximum commercial load of 20.3 tons will be reduced, according to Kommersant, to less than 2.8 thousand km, and according to some sources - less than 2 thousand km. At the same time, the maximum flight altitude that the aircraft can now master is 7 km. Without reducing the weight of the aircraft itself and its systems, according to Kommersant’s interlocutor in the aviation industry, achieving the planned performance characteristics will be unattainable. “It’s impossible to increase engine thrust by 20%”, he says.

Rostec, commenting on the problems with the “weight characteristics” of the MC-21, said that “the final appearance of the completely import-substituted aircraft will be formed in the second half of this year.” “The phased implementation of the program for lifting restrictions during flight tests will allow us to bring the aircraft to parameters that meet the highest requirements of airlines. This also applies to the possibility of ensuring good operating economics within the widely accepted range of Russian airlines of 3 thousand km and a capacity of about 150–170 passengers”, the state corporation said.

The main problem of the SJ-100 was the PD-8 engine, which has not yet confirmed its characteristics in tests.

“At the end of December 2023, during tests, the need for additional work on the PD-8 engine was identified. The task is to ensure its reliability in all modes and guarantee safe operation”, a representative of UEC, the engine developer, told Kommersant.

According to the comprehensive strategy for the development of the aviation industry until 2030, approved in 2022, the domestic aviation industry should receive 1,036 passenger aircraft. Of these, the Aeroflot group should receive 339 aircraft over seven years. It was assumed that deliveries of the MC-21 would begin in 2024 (six units), in 2025 - 12, in 2026 - 22. The first SJ-100 were supposed to arrive in 2023, and from 2024 it was planned to deliver 20 aircraft each. The first three Tu-214s were also expected to be received in 2023, seven more in 2024, ten in 2025. Delivery of ten IL-114s was expected by 2025 (for the transfer, see Kommersant of September 19, 2023).

Rostec explained that the original time frame for the program of import-substituted civil aircraft, adopted until 2022, was targeted at 2026. Then they were shifted to the left. In 2026, the corporation plans to transfer 30 new SJ-100 aircraft to companies. The first new Tu-214, according to the UAC, was delivered in a special version to the state customer in 2023, and another vehicle is planned to be delivered in 2024.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarified that a backlog of aircraft has already been formed: “In particular, 16 Superjets and 12 MS-21 are in varying degrees of readiness and will be equipped with Russian systems as they become available.” The department expects that this will allow, after completion of the tests, to ensure “a follow-up schedule for the production and delivery of aircraft in order to generally implement the replenishment of the fleet with 600 aircraft by 2030.”

A question of priorities
When assessing the realism of the production forecast until 2030, two key problems should be taken into account, says Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the AviaPort agency: the availability of trained personnel and a machine park, as well as financing. Today, the capabilities of Russian industry are prioritized for the tasks of the state defense order. The expert proceeds from the fact that the end of the SVO will be a powerful incentive for the production of civil aircraft: “Capacity and, most importantly, specialists will be freed up.”

Previous deadlines were based on calculations by aircraft manufacturers, who, in turn, were based on promises from second- and third-tier suppliers. But, as practice shows, even first-tier suppliers do not always have contracted components for their own systems, notes Oleg Panteleev.

The deadlines named in 2022 were set based on the expectation that the certification of equipment would proceed smoothly, but the international practice of all aircraft manufacturing programs without exception shows that not a single project is completed without “failures and delays.”

The basic scenario of the aviation strategy until 2030 provides for a reduction in the fleet of foreign passenger aircraft by half, to 300 units, excluding local aircraft. At the end of January, the Russian Union of Travel Industry said that from 2027 on domestic routes there may be a shortage of carrying capacity, “since the Russian aviation industry does not have time to introduce new aircraft.” According to Kommersant's sources in the industry, this could lead to the fact that private carriers - primarily S7, where they encountered problems in servicing the Airbus neo fleet (see Kommersant of October 11, 2023), and Ural Airlines — will be forced to look for aircraft on the secondary market of friendly countries. The second hypothesis concerns allowing foreign carriers to fly between Russian cities and work more actively with Russian companies under codeshare agreements. Thirdly, they believe, in the event of a critical shortage of capacity, the Ministry of Transport may limit the admission of Russian carriers to foreign destinations, concentrating the fleet within the country. The Ministry of Transport and airlines did not comment.

In 2023, the Ministry of Transport announced the readiness of Russian airlines to support the bulk of the fleet of foreign aircraft at least until 2030. Therefore, the plans of the aviation industry and the capabilities of airlines are now “overlapping,” says Oleg Panteleev. But if previously there was about five years between the start of large-scale deliveries of domestic aircraft and the retirement of a significant part of the fleet, now, the expert states, the time reserve is not so great.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6536154

Kiko, the claim about the Tu-214 having 5,900 km range is bullshit. That is the range of the Tu-204-300 version with 6m less length and only 164 passengers. They are mixing up the range of the shortened aircraft with the passengers of the lengthened aircraft.


Unfortunately I have already seen such falsehoods being written in Tatarstan newspapers. They basically claim the Tupolev aircraft has the range of the short version, with the passengers of the long version, and full carrying capacity. You can't have all of those at the same time. And then when they compare against an Irkut aircraft they use the range of the middle version, and the passenger load of the short version. It is just plain lies and bullshit to make the Tu-204 seem better than the MC-21 when it isn't by any metric.

I agree that there are a lot of mistakes, and this seems a bunch of BS.

I fully understand instead the other article that speaks about the additional time needed to redo some testing for certifying all new components and at the beginning some of the timescales looked a bit "sporty", but that is a mistake that usually all aircraft and engine manufacturers do.

The difference is that normally no aircraft manufacturer is abandoned by about 50% of the suppliers a few months before certifying the aircraft.

Kommerzant wrote:Based on the manufacturer’s data, the weight of the empty import-substituted aircraft compared to the previous version (MS-21-300 with an airframe using foreign components and Western engines) increased by 5.75 tons. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, this was due to the use of domestic composite and new aircraft systems.

The difference in weight for the engine (PD-14 vs P&W1000) according to public available information should be less then 20kg.

The airframe could be slightly heavier, but 5.75 tons is a lot. I do not have any exact numbers for the MC21 empty weight,but judging on similar aircrafts, 6 tons would be more than 15% of the empty weight of the aircraft.

I agree that probably they are mixing different stuff.

When they say that the aircraft cannot fly higher it is another complete bullshit. Possibly they are referring only to some temporary limitation in some of the flight tests until they wait for other component testing.

as far as the Tu-214, I am sure they could modify it and put additional tanks and other improvements to increase range. Of course it will not be done right now. First they need to fully replace any foreign component and restart serial production. Only afterwards they can think about improvements/ modifications (including also the new 2 persons cockpit with new avionics and navigation systems).

For the other components, even if the suppliers were the same as those for MC-21, they just need to expand production and build new facilities.

Since now there are additional delays to MC21, there will be no problem in producing parts for Tu-214.
In the meanwhile the suppliers will have about 2 years for expanding facilities and production capabilities (including hiring and training new personnel). Of course they may need either some advance payment or some zero interest loans to enable it.

Russian carbon composite fiber has less tensile strength than Japanese one. So it is possible that this will lead to increased weight. But the numbers they are claiming seem like bullshit. I would reserve any evaluation on the MC-21 until it enters service.


You can compare Russian carbon fibre from Umatex with Japanese carbon fiber from Toray. For example T800 fiber. The Toray T800S fiber has 5,880 MPa tensile strength with 294 GPa tensile modulus while the Umatex UMT290 fiber has 4,400 MPa tensile strength with 290 GPa tensile modulus.

The Russian fibers have more surface defects and thus they end up having less tensile strength. It is as simple as that. The Japanese have been making carbon fiber for much longer and in larger volumes. That's why they have managed to improve its quality further. I am fairly sure that UMATEX will be able to improve fiber quality eventually.

The composites used in the wings are carbon fibers inside a resin, called also "carbon fiber reinforced plastics" (or carbon fibers reinforced polymers, CFRP).

The characteristics of the composites do not depends only of the carbon fibers.

(Such) composite consists of two parts: a matrix and a reinforcement. In CFRP the reinforcement is carbon fiber, which provides its strength. The matrix is usually a thermosetting plastic, such as polyester resin, to bind the reinforcements together. Because CFRPs consist of two distinct elements, the material properties depend on these two elements.

Reinforcement gives CFRPs their strength and rigidity, measured by stress and elastic modulus respectively. Unlike isotropic materials like steel and aluminum, CFRPs have directional strength properties.

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What is Resin?
The resin fixes the carbon fibers in a geometric arrangement, conducts force to the fibers, and stabilizes the fibers while pressure builds. The embedded fibers strengthen and stiffen the composite and absorb forces throughout the length of the fibers. The chemical bond created in the resin matrix produces strength superior to most metals and other fiber-reinforced composites, giving you the ability to fabricate dynamic, energy-returning structures in passive devices.
Composite element is made from 2 basic materials: fabrics (carbon fiber, aramide, glass) and resins. Although fabrics mainly offer product rigidity, a resin also plays a part, as it mostly affects resistance to temperature, permeability of fabrics and other characteristics of the finished product.

So at the end to have a fair comparison we should compare the characteristics of the composites made using Japanese fibers and the composite made using russian fibers, not only the fibers themselves.

Yeah Russia will definite improve in the future with these materials. It is also a matter of volumes and investments.

Probably the only thing we can do is wait for official numbers later. In the meanwhile restarting production of tu-214 can for sure help.

And again, I really like metal. It is much easier to predict and calculate and it is less impacted by environment and damages. So for each material (and airplane) there are certain niches and preferred uses.