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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #6

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:58 pm

    Sujoy wrote:Much like the war between Armenia & Azerbaijan in 2020 in this war as well casualties on both sides is being caused almost entirely by heavy artillery and missiles and not that much by the vaunted Western ATGMs

    Ukraine's arsenal of Tochka seems to be impressive. With S-400 covering most of the Ukranian airspace interesting that the Ukranians are still managing to hit Russian targets.


    Russian or DNR targets?

    Also proves you don't know how AD systems work.

    Not surprising really.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:59 pm

    Is there a real MOD estimate of losses for VS RF?

    Can we reliably Count of estimates of 400-700 KIA for VS RF?

    Considering wounded numbers are higher, 1400 were discharged from hospitals so that gives an indication

    Also can we have reliable figures of LDNR militia losses?

    Have DPR MOD issued casualties? If VS RF are near 700, then have DPR released estimates of their own 200s and 300s?

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    Post  Scorpius Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:01 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/43575

    How long does autoloader take usually? Here I counted 19 sec between first shot and second

    Not bad, he was also relocating positional for the second shot



    5.20 sec reloading on T-72:
    https://youtu.be/eGHrSv5ileM
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:04 pm

    Sujoy, firstly ,S400 is not operating in Ukraine so It would not have responsibility of providing primary coverage in ABM role,

    It is operating from Crimea and Belarus and the Russian border, in a anti aircraft role, downing a Su27 at 150km range which is a world record

    So far TELS of s400 are not yet spotted in Ukraine, we have seen videos, of burning S300 TELS, but they were VSU

    In any case primary responsibility for covering Russian troops is Buk, Tor, and other mobile SAMS , S300V has not been seen in Ukraine

    The Tochka was flying to a civilian target , and from what I understand it was worked on by AD, resulting in 20 killed, rather than hundreds if it had actually impacted its intended target, the civilian population of donetsk

    So in reality , the casualty ratio is mixed

    Many are from direct artillery, that is the largest cause of casualties, but that was early in the war, before all military capabilities of VSU were severely degraded

    From then on, most casualties resulted from the use of ambush tactics of ATGM, and drones hitting a lone tank or armored vehicle , which in terms of numbers, is less than say the explosion of IED in ISAF patrol, taking out several fire squads

    The casualty numbers are still low for the kind of urban operations Russia is partaking in,

    With VSU taking upwards of 20,000 casualties from massive fires of the VS RF


    Last edited by Arkanghelsk on Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  EkErilaz Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:06 pm

    Airbornewolf wrote:


    Perhaps its real, i just have reservations how some things appear to look in the vid.
    they look wrong to me. But ill let it go after this post. i promise Wink.

    I also tried to look up the gunner view of the BTR 4 and an manual if they can indeed over-ride certain settings in the fire control station.

    In 2 Demos online the BTR-4 shows an clear ammo counter and the sliders during testing in indonesia and Ukraine.
    cant find the manual, so i can not be sure what the gauges exactly mean.
    the text on the right side is the munition counter and selection anyway.

    In the Ukraine footage they are all empty.


    I think it is real, unfortunately. The weird effects are most likely from differing framerated of the capture device  (phone) and the monitor. I have had similar result filming.. stuff..  Military electronics is not really known for having the best hardware when it comes to performance, but instead is sturdy as hell. However, this is some second rate shit, I see the screen glitching from recoil shock, and 1980s tech for aiming, does it even have a laser rangefinder?
    mavaff
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    Post  mavaff Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:08 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:

    In any case primary responsibility for covering Russian troops is Buk, Tor, and other mobile SAMS , S300V has not been seen in Ukraine


    ok but still I do not understand why Buks and Pantsirs did not take out all TB2 from the very first days, I have seen too many videos of TB2 hitting targets: these should have been downed right away.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:15 pm

    mavaff wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:

    In any case primary responsibility for covering Russian troops is Buk, Tor, and other mobile SAMS , S300V has not been seen in Ukraine


    ok but still I do not understand why Buks and Pantsirs did not take out all TB2 from the very first days, I have seen too many videos of TB2 hitting targets: these should have been downed right away.

    The resulting casualties of TB2 strikes are in the 1% to 5% of all total casualties and this is very generous estimate

    Recall these drones are killing tanks and armored vehicles so yes impact is great as you are wiping out a crew , but at the same time,  in terms of numbers it is an trivial factor.

    More important is the recon of enemy artillery, to eliminate the possibility of heavy destruction of troops

    NATO, would have a much harder time countering these munitions, such as drones and missiles,

    Which we see in 1 impact hundreds of enemy wiped out in such strikes, against an enemy with superior AD to any NATO state today, and in fact was for the most part suppressed by the VKS

    The occasional manpads hits were seen in Syria, and even then, SU25 eats manpads for lunch and lands with engine hanging out,

    So in terms of performance, Russia does not lag behind in employing successful tactics and strategy to defeat a heavily armed and relatively well trained and high morale enemy.

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    Post  Regular Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:22 pm

    Scorpius wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/43575

    How long does autoloader take usually? Here I counted 19 sec between first shot and second

    Not bad, he was also relocating positional for the second shot



    5.20 sec reloading on T-72:
    https://youtu.be/eGHrSv5ileM

    Doesn't show whole process, same as with the guys with manual reloading. Anyways, it's still very fast and now only decision making is limiting the speed.
    mavaff
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    Post  mavaff Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:25 pm

    @Arkanghels Thanks for replying, nevertheless I think Russia could have been more effective in air combats (meaning shutting down drones but, more important, striking Ukr AD): I was really surprised to see Ka52 and even Su34 shut down. I agree overall numbers are pretty low for RuAF compared to the enemy, still...hurts. Very Happy
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:27 pm

    Edit:

    Whats the point anymore. The mods dont give a shit about this site so why should I?
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:33 pm

    mavaff wrote:@Arkanghels Thanks for replying, nevertheless I think Russia could have been more effective in air combats (meaning shutting down drones but, more important, striking Ukr AD): I was really surprised to see Ka52 and even Su34 shut down. I agree overall numbers are pretty low for RuAF compared to the enemy, still...hurts. Very Happy

    The SEAD mission will always be difficult,

    At the same time you must remember, Ukraine was the 2nd most powerful SSR of the whole Soviet Union.

    The country with the most robust air defense system was Ukraine outside of Russia

    Iraq was operating with Pechora 125, and outdated Kub, Kvadrat, and old systems similarly to Serbia, Libya, and Syria

    Ukraine operated S300, Buk, Tor, Strela, Igla, and has an integrated system of the Soviet Variant which was mobile unlike Iraq or Syria

    Russia quickly suppressed the s300 and elements which helped it operate such as radars, command posts, and communication centers which were the most important targets from the beginning of the war

    In addition,  they were fighting Buk and Tor which were operated with Optical Tracking and Guidance , once Command Posts were knocked out in week 1

    By week 2, these systems managed ambushes on low flying aircrafts,  which was necessary to avoid radar systems of Buk which is a very potent system

    But nonetheless were eliminated for the most part

    As we approach week 3, these systems continue to exist, and their destruction is not guaranteed by drones or other fantasy COD material

    In Serbia , serb mobile AD survived after 70 days of continuous strategic bombing

    So while Russia can avoid those sites and accomplish its mission

    It gives insight to the true nature of SEAD against a near peer enemy at high intensity combat at least in terms of AD

    Yes some Su34 and Ka52 were lost, but that is the cost of the mission

    To hunt radars, command posts, comm centers close to the front line, secondary targets Recon strike complexes of MLRS, and artillery batteries operating close to the axis of advance of russian troops

    Even deep operations into rear of tactical formations which were very important to the success of advances in Chernigov and Sumy regions, Kiev, and the Donetsk offensives

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:37 pm

    auslander wrote:

    A lot of the smaller ships have a black/white lower hull, makes ranging on the hull difficult. What is real and what is the other end, so to speak.

    I was thinking more of the black front hull and the white superstructure on those 4 ships in the photo, They look like coastal cargo ships.

    I was told that the RuN white/black hull was painted black at the back to mask the stains from diesel exhausts.
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    Post  Sujoy Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:38 pm

    Biden is sending his NSA to Rome to meet with China's Yang Jiechi. Biden’s imperative to win Chinese cooperation on his sanctions against Russia has armed China with crucial leverage. Like a double-edged sword, it will wield that leverage to extract U.S. and Russian concessions.

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:44 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Sujoy, firstly ,S400 is not operating in Ukraine so It would not have responsibility of providing primary coverage in ABM role,

    It is operating from Crimea and Belarus and the Russian border, in a anti aircraft role, downing a Su27 at 150km range which is a world record
    Didn't say S-400 is inside Ukranian territory. Said it covers almost the entire Ukranian airspace from Russia.

    A number of Tockhas were fired. How many of these Tockhas were intercepted by S-400 or any other Russia SAM system has not been made public yet.

    Also interesting that Russia S-300Vs are missing in action.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:47 pm

    A warm glow for the evening

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #6 - Page 26 FNxGxZtXEAo76X0?format=jpg&name=small


    Jack Detsch
    @JackDetsch
    ·
    45m
    NEW: Russian long-range cruise missile strikes on Ukraine's Yavoriv military training ground near the Polish border will NOT impact U.S. military aid: senior U.S. defense official.

    Yavoriv was NOT a transshipment point for U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the official said.

    Tara Copp
    @TaraCopp
    ·
    49m
    The bombing that killed 35 at #Ukraine training center were fired from Russian bombers from inside Russian airspace, senior defense official says. Used "a couple dozen" long range cruise missiles

    Carla Babb
    @CarlaBabbVOA
    ·
    1h
    #BREAKING Sr defense official says Yavoriv #Ukraine attack was an "air launched cruise missile strike & only an air launched cruise missile strike" launched from long-range bombers in #Russian air space, not Ukrainian airspace. A no fly zone "would have had no effect" on these



    Last edited by JohninMK on Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Isos Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:58 pm

    Sujoy wrote:Biden is sending his NSA to Rome to meet with China's Yang Jiechi. Biden’s imperative to win Chinese cooperation on his sanctions against Russia has armed China with crucial leverage. Like a double-edged sword, it will wield that leverage to extract U.S. and Russian concessions.

    Lol.

    Chinese are preparing the invasion of Taiwan right now.

    They are analyzing how the sanctions are doing and taking their assets sanction proof for it.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:59 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Sujoy wrote:Biden is sending his NSA to Rome to meet with China's Yang Jiechi. Biden’s imperative to win Chinese cooperation on his sanctions against Russia has armed China with crucial leverage. Like a double-edged sword, it will wield that leverage to extract U.S. and Russian concessions.

    Lol.

    Chinese are preparing the invasion of Taiwan right now.

    They are analyzing how the sanctions are doing and taking their assets sanction proof for it.

    They been talking to the chinese like a dozen times in a couple of days and they get the same results.

    China is just poking at the US at this point.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:01 pm

    That's a large number of trucks with the 5 MSTA and not much other armour.

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    ·
    2h
    Large Russian convoy in Kupyansk





    Last edited by JohninMK on Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:02 pm

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:02 pm

    Sujoy wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Sujoy, firstly ,S400 is not operating in Ukraine so It would not have responsibility of providing primary coverage in ABM role,

    It is operating from Crimea and Belarus and the Russian border, in a anti aircraft role, downing a Su27 at 150km range which is a world record
    Didn't say S-400 is inside Ukranian territory. Said it covers almost the entire Ukranian airspace from Russia.

    A number of Tockhas were fired. How many of these Tockhas were intercepted by S-400 or any other Russia SAM system has not been made public yet.

    Also interesting that Russia S-300Vs are missing in action.

    The fact they are not operating in Ukraine,  implies that they are not operating in an ABM role. For ABM to be successful, TELS are placed in the impact area to protect the grouping of forces , from ballistic missile that is flying overhead

    Many Tochkas have been intercepted,  including the one today, which fell on civilians and was not fully destroyed, but at least minimized casualties from direct impact

    Russia General Staff know what they are doing,  it's easy to criticize from reddit or Twitter, when you have 0 responsibility and 0 clue what your talking about

    In fact, how would anyone else have approached it without resorting to massive bombardment (which btw I fully supported) but MOD knows better than me, that to rebuild Ukraine into Russia aligned state, they cannot inflict heavy civilian casualties

    The main issue today, is the urban siege. That is what will speed up the progress, which Russia is fighting at numerical disadvantage

    So it shows what Russia can do when outnumbered 1:3.

    It does not need thousands of fighters , and thousands of drones, it simply needs the right tool for the right job

    For SEAD it seems protection suites are the most important thing,  rather than weaponry and even RCS. For low level CAS and SEAD missions, a self protection suite is of epic value

    For AD , it seems Russian air defenses work a little too well

    It's just some units will be unprotected during the March,

    Some independent recon units of the tactical level are moving on march without AD

    In terms of Precision strikes, Russia is doing well, many drones are being used, its just, these drones are making a minimal impact hunting singular entities of a tactical level, like a MLRS truck, or a tank or vehicle which is not of operational strategic value

    Only the RSO of Russia can deliver huge strikes in one concentrated area without resorting to tactical nukes

    So MLRS is more important than 1 or 2 250kg bombs being dropped from a drone

    The objective is not to hunt 1 tank or truck, but to fix and trap an entire battalion under the fire of an MLRS salvo , that is a real target

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:08 pm

    Scorpius wrote:https://t.me/boris_rozhin/32342
    The moment of the fall of the rocket in Donetsk. Cameras at the entrance to the DNR Bank. There are women and children in the frame.




    When Russians attack with rockets in the Ukraine they attack military targets, but Ukrainians respond by attacking ethnic Russian civilians.

    That sounds like what the Ukrainians did to the ethnic Poles in the past.


    http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/460/land-zamosc-zamojszczyzna-1942-1944



    I do not comprehend the sympathy and help they get from so much of the rest of the world.



    dunno

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:19 pm

    https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/43643

    VSU PVO working in Odessa, wonder what they are intercepting

    Regardless, this give you an idea of the level of PVO Ukraine possesses , not operational strategic long range

    But some effective tactical systems like Buk, and Tor

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    Post  VARGR198 Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:46 pm


    They should gift these to the DRP flotilla like they have done with the captured land equipment.

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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:49 pm

    When does the assault on Odessa begin?
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 14, 2022 5:55 pm

    Something I read about, and correct me if wrong

    Is, the BUK and TOR use the 9sh38 and 9sh319 for optical tracking systems, respectively

    These systems augment the capabilities of Buk and TOR

    the search radar which operates in E/F band is echoing at low GHZ value , but is not enough to triangulate the position of Buk or TOR for VKS aircraft,

    If they do not activate their Tracking radars, it's difficult to find them, especially after VKS has destroyed the command posts and radar installations of the VSU IADS

    So these systems rely on the 9sh38 or 9sh319 to place a TV Beam in the form of a cross hair up to possibly 5km from the system on the aircraft of the enemy

    Then missiles are launched and controlled in SACLOS, and is beam riding the TV signal to the aircraft

    So the RWR will not pickup anything if search radar is not working, and it operates in optical mode

    Further more, if TOR/BUK operates missiles in optical SACLOS mode then it will never show up on RWR

    This is why there is no warning of impact to low flying planes

    Semi active command to line of sight means that there is no need for the radar to paint the aircraft and is not emitting radar emissions during intercept

    But a very low frequency radio signal to guide the missile by optical tracking

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