Urluber wrote:flamming_python wrote:Urluber wrote:What I don't understand is why the government doesn't stop it: send air force to force it divert course.
Compromised heavily probably.
Just as there is a divide between a pro-Russian/Chinese and pro-Western course in the business and political elites, that divide is probably present in the military leadership too. And since no-one knows which side will win, probably a lot of people including military officers are hedging their bets, helping both sides, or not following any orders at all.
Like I said this situation resembles Syria 2011 even more than the Ukrainian Maidan.
It's amazing how easy it seems to be to set up these coups in certain places. And how they do not learn.
USA is quickly out of cards if it is faced with decisive action, like was in Belarus. They don't expect that kind of reaction. It's no magic. Just keep the lines straight in peace-time (that's how it is done in west also - opposition in deep power structures, ie. military, is not allowed whatsoever).
And I definitely agree: more Syria than Ukraine. Although it now depends on what is the reaction from government and if they actually manage to gather any actual support. In Syria the government had support base and thus managed to somewhat fight back (not very effectively however until Russia showed up).
Reportedly Kazakh president has held phone calls with Putin and Lukashenko.
Well I mean it's not just that. You can't create something that's not there under the surface in the first place
So it is with these mass protests and riots in Kazakhstan. The government is thoroughly corrupt, it has been busy building a new ethnocracy which in practice is just a kleptocracy for the ruling clans, people from the villages arriving to the cities have little opportunity for self-realization or upgrading their status (and they are the driving force of these events), the country is rich in natural resources and has been gaining more and more money from it but wages and social guarantees for the general population have not improved, Russian-speakers keep leaving the country every year, there are social contradictions basically on every corner
So this is not just the creation of the West. It's certainly where the opposition leaders are based, whose resources are being used, which intelligence services are helping - but ultimately it's a genuine uprising, and against everything they've lived under for the past 30 years, by the actual population of the country (mostly the rural workers and smaller provincial cities). Which is a problem, as it means there's no one single driving force or ideology, and similarly there is no east-west divide like in the Ukraine - it's literally just a massive peasant revolt so to speak against the old order, but with no ideas for what the new order should be.
Why I say it's like Syria 2011, is because violence and chaos is rapidly increasing, there doesn't seem to be a single unified opposition rather just this coalition of the dissatisfied that I've noted earlier, backed by extremists and a good part of the elite, and that if Nazarbayev-Tokayev are deposed, I'm not sure those who replace them will even be able to re-establish control, as would have been the case if Assad fell in Syria. The government's support base is in the cities, like in Syria, but unlike Syria they've not been mobilized and I'm not sure there will even be time to do it.
Rather we'll see a situation like Kyrgyzstan at best if the regime falls, where an even worse elite replaces the previous one, and doesn't have the political opportunity and consolidation needed to carry out any reforms or improve the situation in the country decisively. Like Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan is also pretty much obligated to respect Russia's and China's interests as they are right next door and its with them most of the trade is carried out with.
At worst, you'll just see the decent of the country into a long-running political crisis with no-one really in control, the further rise of Islamism, nationalism and rising emigration to Russia. An actual Syrian style war is probably off the cards, more like Lebanon in practice.
America is an expert at creating chaos, not building countries.