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    2022 Kazakhstan violent unrest

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:01 pm

    Urluber wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Urluber wrote:What I don't understand is why the government doesn't stop it: send air force to force it divert course.

    Compromised heavily probably.

    Just as there is a divide between a pro-Russian/Chinese and pro-Western course in the business and political elites, that divide is probably present in the military leadership too. And since no-one knows which side will win, probably a lot of people including military officers are hedging their bets, helping both sides, or not following any orders at all.

    Like I said this situation resembles Syria 2011 even more than the Ukrainian Maidan.


    Probably, yes.
    It's amazing how easy it seems to be to set up these coups in certain places. And how they do not learn.
    USA is quickly out of cards if it is faced with decisive action, like was in Belarus. They don't expect that kind of reaction. It's no magic. Just keep the lines straight in peace-time (that's how it is done in west also - opposition in deep power structures, ie. military, is not allowed whatsoever).


    And I definitely agree: more Syria than Ukraine. Although it now depends on what is the reaction from government and if they actually manage to gather any actual support. In Syria the government had support base and thus managed to somewhat fight back (not very effectively however until Russia showed up).


    Reportedly Kazakh president has held phone calls with Putin and Lukashenko.

    Well I mean it's not just that. You can't create something that's not there under the surface in the first place

    So it is with these mass protests and riots in Kazakhstan. The government is thoroughly corrupt, it has been busy building a new ethnocracy which in practice is just a kleptocracy for the ruling clans, people from the villages arriving to the cities have little opportunity for self-realization or upgrading their status (and they are the driving force of these events), the country is rich in natural resources and has been gaining more and more money from it but wages and social guarantees for the general population have not improved, Russian-speakers keep leaving the country every year, there are social contradictions basically on every corner

    So this is not just the creation of the West. It's certainly where the opposition leaders are based, whose resources are being used, which intelligence services are helping - but ultimately it's a genuine uprising, and against everything they've lived under for the past 30 years, by the actual population of the country (mostly the rural workers and smaller provincial cities). Which is a problem, as it means there's no one single driving force or ideology, and similarly there is no east-west divide like in the Ukraine - it's literally just a massive peasant revolt so to speak against the old order, but with no ideas for what the new order should be.

    Why I say it's like Syria 2011, is because violence and chaos is rapidly increasing, there doesn't seem to be a single unified opposition rather just this coalition of the dissatisfied that I've noted earlier, backed by extremists and a good part of the elite, and that if Nazarbayev-Tokayev are deposed, I'm not sure those who replace them will even be able to re-establish control, as would have been the case if Assad fell in Syria. The government's support base is in the cities, like in Syria, but unlike Syria they've not been mobilized and I'm not sure there will even be time to do it.
    Rather we'll see a situation like Kyrgyzstan at best if the regime falls, where an even worse elite replaces the previous one, and doesn't have the political opportunity and consolidation needed to carry out any reforms or improve the situation in the country decisively. Like Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan is also pretty much obligated to respect Russia's and China's interests as they are right next door and its with them most of the trade is carried out with.
    At worst, you'll just see the decent of the country into a long-running political crisis with no-one really in control, the further rise of Islamism, nationalism and rising emigration to Russia. An actual Syrian style war is probably off the cards, more like Lebanon in practice.

    America is an expert at creating chaos, not building countries.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:38 pm

    Order has been re-established in Pavlodar by security forces
    The Almaty airport terminal and duty-free zone has been ransacked by looters
    The National Security Commitee building in Almaty has been taken over by protestors
    Kazakhstan's first cosmonaut has called for the CSTO to intervene in an interview. Seems the Kazakh elites don't trust their own military much.
    Martial law has been extended all across the country rather than just the main cities, there will presumably be limitations on movement and a night-time curfew
    Radio Free Europe journos in Almaty wound up in a crossfire
    Extra police deployed to the presidential palace in Nur-Sultan

    Will be an interesting night, will say that much

    We may see a sort of insurgency forming driven by the rural regions of north-west and south Kazakhstan, with the cities of Aktobe, Atyrau and Almaty emerging as the urban centres analogous to Idlib, Homs and Aleppo. Opposed by the more pro-government cities such as Nur-Sultan, Pavlodar and Semipalatinsk and the north/north-east of the country. With the central regions going either way.
    But I don't think we'll see open warfare, rather more riots mixed in with occasional firefights. That's if the government manages to hold on at all, by no means certain.
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    Post  par far Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:41 pm

    "Paid conspirators found behind riots in Kazakhstan'

    "Shibutov stressed that clashes occur mainly in Alma-Ata and Aktau, so there is no need to talk about the risk of a “color revolution”. “There is no threat of overthrowing the government, there is a threat of pressure through riots. There are no external stakeholders involved. On the contrary, the countries that invested in Kazakhstan may demand stabilization of the situation and their participation in it, ” the expert suggested.

    Russia is ready to provide non-military assistance to Kazakhstan, First Deputy Head of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council Vladimir Dzhabarov told Interfax. However, the senator believes in the ability of local authorities to handle the situation on their own. “They are actively working to relieve tension in society,” Jabarov said.


    "According to Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Kazakhstan has not yet addressed Moscow. But the Kremlin believes that the country’s authorities will cope with internal problems on their own, and interference from outside is unacceptable."

    https://thesaker.is/sitrep-kazakhstan/



    The violent part of the protests were likely fueled by the Paid conspirators but instead of having the effect the handlers of the paid conspirators wanted it may have the opposite effect, we will see.

    We will need to keep an eye on this.

    I think they will decrease the oil prices and the tensions may subside.

    I think we will see these kind of protests all over the world, including in the west, in the summer time.




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    Post  Urluber Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:30 pm

    par far wrote:"Paid conspirators found behind riots in Kazakhstan'



    I think we will see these kind of protests all over the world, including in the west, in the summer time.





    Highly unlikely.
    In the west any protests are suppressed quite determinedly. We have seen this over the past year or two in places like Netherlands, Germany, Australia. Quite harsh methods have been used against protestors in those places.

    I saw someone from the Kazakhstan protestors saying that they want to live like in Sweden and Norway. Not speaking about suspicions of that Kazakhstan people would know small countries like Sweden and Norway very well, I want to point out big part of the reasons why these countries are like they are (welfare states) is the stability. People there do not riot. They have had hundreds of years (at least in Swedens case) of time to develop the industry and society in peace and stability.

    No one turns into Sweden overnight (if that's some kind of goal taking in consideration all the negatives in Sweden which of I'm sure the Soros students rarely hear). That is for sure.

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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:43 pm

    The same aggressive welfare bum mentality as in Ukraine. Losers who feel entitled without bothering to put in the effort
    to make they country great.

    These rent-a-crowd retards couldn't be bothered to protest problems with the government of Kazakhstan. They need
    to riot over LPG prices. As if the LPG prices are the fault of the government and as if that is the core problem in the country.
    Nazarbayev's nepotism apparently is not an issue.

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    Post  Urluber Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:54 pm

    Kazakhstan appears to be asking Russia-led block to provide military aid.
    Still no linking rights but it's on Russian media.

    They are under an attack.


    From Gazeta:

    “Considering that these terrorist gangs are essentially international, they have undergone serious training abroad, their attack on Kazakhstan can and should be viewed as an act of aggression. In this regard, relying on the collective security treaty, today I appealed to the heads of the CSTO states to assist Kazakhstan in overcoming this terrorist threat, "Tokayev said.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:59 pm

    Latest news is that Tokayev has officially requested assistance from the CSTO for counter-terrorist actions
    He has designated those groups who have taken over Almaty airport as terrorist groups, and the Kazakh Air Assault Forces have already been deployed to deal with them around Almaty.

    kvs wrote:The same aggressive welfare bum mentality as in Ukraine.   Losers who feel entitled without bothering to put in the effort
    to make they country great.

    These rent-a-crowd retards couldn't be bothered to protest problems with the government of Kazakhstan.   They need
    to riot over LPG prices.   As if the LPG prices are the fault of the government and as if that is the core problem in the country.
    Nazarbayev's nepotism apparently is not an issue.


    To be fair to the Kazakhs their inclination was never to live off someone else's paycheck. They kept integration with Russia, but Russia benefited from that too, it is a 2-way street.

    Kazakhstan lives off its own resources and has the potential to live quite well off them.
    Well so did the Ukraine but that went down the drain from 1991

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    Post  Urluber Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:06 pm

    Some small Embraer was recently flying from Moscow to Almaty. It disappeared from flightradar after it reached Almaty.

    Could be some small group of specialist to assist in liberation of the strategic positions?

    I doubt any businessman would be flying there at this time.
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    Post  VARGR198 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:27 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Latest news is that Tokayev has officially requested assistance from the CSTO for counter-terrorist actions
    He has designated those groups who have taken over Almaty airport as terrorist groups, and the Kazakh Air Assault Forces have already been deployed to deal with them around Almaty.

    kvs wrote:The same aggressive welfare bum mentality as in Ukraine.   Losers who feel entitled without bothering to put in the effort
    to make they country great.

    These rent-a-crowd retards couldn't be bothered to protest problems with the government of Kazakhstan.   They need
    to riot over LPG prices.   As if the LPG prices are the fault of the government and as if that is the core problem in the country.
    Nazarbayev's nepotism apparently is not an issue.


    To be fair to the Kazakhs their inclination was never to live off someone else's paycheck. They kept integration with Russia, but Russia benefited from that too, it is a 2-way street.

    Kazakhstan lives off its own resources and has the potential to live quite well off them.
    Well so did the Ukraine but that went down the drain from 1991

    But they remember what the CIA did to Ukraine, and tried doing to Belarus. Makes sense to get help from Russia to stop that disaster in Kazakhstan

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    Post  par far Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:39 pm

    Urluber wrote:
    par far wrote:"Paid conspirators found behind riots in Kazakhstan'



    I think we will see these kind of protests all over the world, including in the west, in the summer time.





    Highly unlikely.
    In the west any protests are suppressed quite determinedly. We have seen this over the past year or two in places like Netherlands, Germany, Australia. Quite harsh methods have been used against protestors in those places.

    I saw someone from the Kazakhstan protestors saying that they want to live like in Sweden and Norway. Not speaking about suspicions of that Kazakhstan people would know small countries like Sweden and Norway very well, I want to point out big part of the reasons why these countries are like they are (welfare states) is the stability. People there do not riot. They have had hundreds of years (at least in Swedens case) of time to develop the industry and society in peace and stability.

    No one turns into Sweden overnight (if that's some kind of goal taking in consideration all the negatives in Sweden which of I'm sure the Soros students rarely hear). That is for sure.



    Protests are already happening in the west.
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    Post  par far Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:41 pm

    "Kazakh president asks Russia-led bloc for military help"

    "the “terrorists” had been going on outside the country’s largest city, Almaty, at the time of his address. These highly organized “terrorists” had been trained abroad, Tokayev alleged."

    I think is a great opportunity to catch one of these cocksuckers alive and interrogate the bastard.


    https://www.rt.com/russia/545250-kazakhstan-protests-csto-military-help/


    What Forces would Russia send in?


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    Post  Arkanghelsk Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:50 pm

    Better if CSTO does not enter,

    Wagner can assist in peacekeeping if need be

    But would be funny if wagner and Kazakh national guard cracked some skulls and arrested the terrorists. 

    After all it is January 6, day of the insurrection..  so kazakh values are similar to americans no?

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    Post  par far Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:56 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Better if CSTO does not enter,

    Wagner can assist in peacekeeping if need be


    It depends on training, I think/hope Russian Special Forces go in backed by other Forces.

    This is a color revolution, there are reports of "human rights abuses" in the western press.

    Some are saying that Turkey is involved, I don't think Turkey is involved. Maybe wrong and Turkey is involved.

    If Russia plays the cards right, Belarus and Kazakhstan, may just haven fallen in their laps.

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    Post  Urluber Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:58 pm

    par far wrote:"Kazakh president asks Russia-led bloc for military help"

    "the “terrorists” had been going on outside the country’s largest city, Almaty, at the time of his address. These highly organized “terrorists” had been trained abroad, Tokayev alleged."

    I think is a great opportunity to catch one of these cocksuckers alive and interrogate the bastard.




    What Forces would Russia send in?




    Not only Russia. Belarus now has solid experience of dealing with these kind of orchestrations.

    If I was in charge I would send from Russia specialists who could monitor and coordinate the communications/information space and hunt down the main agitators. Kazakhstan forces can deal with the masses. Belarus can send some riot police and KGB unit to assist in securing the strategic targets like the airports and tv-stations.

    Maybe some armed team to ensure Baikonur is absolute no-go for all parties. Risks are low as the "protestors" and their foreign backers know it would surely trigger Russian response.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:03 pm

    Marauders breaking into banks



    Protestors equipping themselves with weapons




    Almaty airport is now secured. Apparently 2 servicemen died in the operation
    Bank ATMs were broken into in the airport while it was occupied

    Apparently the security forces are now entering Almaty to conduct an anti-terror sweep

    Mass looting took place in the shopping centres of Almaty. Cosmetic shops, grocery stores, supermarkets, mobile phone shops were all looted.
    I don't exclude BTW that some of this could be the work of Kazakh security services themselves. Would be a smart tactic. The Kazakh opposition in Kiev has already sounded alarm about the violent nature of the protests, it seems to have all slipped out of their control. More than likely though all this petty criminality is just the result of the peasant uprising phenomenon.

    The people equipping themselves with weapons however are a different matter. Several banks around the city have been broken into too, and that also implies organization and invites concern, about what that money will be used to fund in the coming days.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:22 pm

    Urban combat is breaking out in Almaty

    https://t.me/bbbreaking/110357

    I think as long as the Kazakh ruling elite keep control of Nur-Sultan and the rest of the north/north-west, they cannot be deposed. It is after all the capital and seat of power.
    Sweeping towards the south and securing Almaty is a smart move, that's the largest city of the country, an economic centre, and there is no need to tolerate an Aleppo there.
    The west of the country where the protests started from (and which has the largest amount of local pro-West business interests connected with natural resources and oil/gas) can then be isolated.

    Worrying echoes of Syria so the govt will need to move quickly.
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    Post  Urluber Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:31 pm

    ^More decisive action than I would have expected, must admit. Very nice.

    Russia has probably promised support (at least political). That is what "lesser countries" need when dealing with this kind of situation. If they are on their own, they fear acting because USA usually talks tough and warns against using force (even if they wouldn't hesitate using it on their own... like was seen in Capitol riots).
    Even having verbal support from some bigger player works wonders what comes to morale.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:39 pm

    One guy loads a looted TV into his car, while the other guy fires off some shots into the air. Gangsta

    https://t.me/bbbreaking/110361
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:44 pm



    Looks like a preemptive move by Washington to prevent the Narzarbayev faction from being displaced from power.
    Stir shit up and give the faction via the army to restore its control. Even though Nazarbayev has resigned from
    the Security Council from where he was still acting as leader, this does not imply his faction has given up. I am
    also not sure about the true intentions of the nominal president who seems to be grabbing power. He may be
    a comprador as well.

    The analogy to Ukraine is there. Kuchma was a rotten piece of shit who set up the Orange Revolution and its
    knock-on Maidan coup in 2014. Nazarbayev was no friend of Russia and was openly driving Russians out
    of Kazakhstan. Another nazionalist pinhead with delusions of greater glory. The Kazakhs were not some
    oppressed people under a Russian yoke. In fact, the Russian population there (which actually involves
    Ukrainians who settled in the north as wheat farmers in the 1800s) was a reflection of the good living conditions
    during the USSR period. The bitching about too many Russians in Almaty is the same as the bitching about
    no pure Ukrian language domination in Kiev that I was listening to from before the 1980s.

    None of these toilets shine when Russians are driven out.

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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:45 pm

    Urluber wrote:Russia has probably promised support (at least political). ...

    What Russia needs to promise is that not a single airplane from Kazakhstan will be allowed into Russia and that any politician that tries to flee would be handed over to protesters

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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:46 pm

    flamming_python wrote:One guy loads a looted TV into his car, while the other guy fires off some shots into the air. Gangsta

    https://t.me/bbbreaking/110361

    This riot is all about bank and ATM robbery. It would not be surprising if the CIA recruited the Kazakh underworld for its regime
    change operation. They have a long history of using criminals.

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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:47 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Urluber wrote:Russia has probably promised support (at least political). ...

    What Russia needs to promise is that not a single airplane from Kazakhstan will be allowed into Russia and that any politician that tries to flee would be handed over to protesters


    Russia should prevent Turkish cargo transports loaded with regime change operatives from flying into Kazakhstan.
    The "protestors" are actual criminals and not victims of the regime.

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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:48 pm

    So the Kazakh nazionalists have links to the Uighurs in China. Very interesting. Clearly one big CIA operation from start to finish.

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    Post  par far Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:02 pm

    What kind of help will Russia send?
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:05 pm

    Streets of Almaty as of a few hours ago

    Burnt-out husks littering the roads, things on fire, make-shift barricades



    The opposition and associated youtube, telegram accounts are now calling for 'people's police' and militias to be formed to protect from further looting and criminality. But of course they've let that too late, things will just carry on like this until the security services take control


    Last edited by flamming_python on Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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