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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    PhSt
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  PhSt Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:38 pm

    JohninMK wrote:One reason why the stunning story on mp.net in 2014/5 will not be repeated if it blows.

    Pepe Escobar
    @RealPepeEscobar
    ·
    10h
    All information platforms from the Luhansk People's Republic were banned by YouTube.

    Same with the channels by the Ministry of Information and the People's Militia of Donetsk.

    This is called "freedom of the press".

    Still waiting for Russia to push for an international alternative to Youtube

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:45 pm

    PhSt wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:One reason why the stunning story on mp.net in 2014/5 will not be repeated if it blows.

    Pepe Escobar
    @RealPepeEscobar
    ·
    10h
    All information platforms from the Luhansk People's Republic were banned by YouTube.

    Same with the channels by the Ministry of Information and the People's Militia of Donetsk.

    This is called "freedom of the press".

    Still waiting for Russia to push for an international alternative to Youtube

    This becomes a private thing but ultimately VK is used as an alternative as VK has its own video hosting. As well there is rutube but it isn't nearly as popular.

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    auslander
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    Post  auslander Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:05 pm


    So here's me and VCO (Victor Charlie Oscar, aka Vertically Challenged One, my wife is, for those who don't understand metric, 4'10" and 95 pounds of ornery Russian Lady who doesn't take prisoners, eyes on verification...and she's a crack shot at distances I can't even see anymore) having a long and leisurely dinner over some to die for Massandrah Roseveh and discussing everything and anything. She uses different sources of information than I use so we hash over everything at the noon and evening meal and come up with a synopsis of who is doing what, with which and to whom.

    SehSha (США) is in deep kaka. SehSha can scream and shout all she wants, she has been totally outmaneuvered by VVP, Lavrov, Shoigu....and Katai. It will go down in history as one of the greatest blunders of all time when SehSha drove Mat Rossiya and Katai together and then, wonder of all wonders, decided to start sanctions against Katai (!) to 'prevent' any circumnavigation of Rossiya around the constant and ever increasing sanctions imposed on Mat Rossiya. One would question the sanity of SehSha, it just don't make any sense.

    Is war coming? I have lived in Sevastopol since 2006, through two wars and one revolution (one particularly nasty war ongoing in Novorossiya) and, while I say nothing that would in the least violate OpSec, I will say war is a gnat's eyelash from commencing. Neither Rossiya nor VVP and his team want war but if war is forced on them/us so be it. EU as it is known today will cease to exist and США will also continue in the long downward spiral she is in now. Pity, what could have been, what should have been and what will not be. США will also cease to exist and devolve in to chaos, violence and virtually a civil war, a tragedy that will go down in history for all time and God help the innocents trapped in that horror show.

    Auslander

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    Post  Airbornewolf Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:32 pm

    auslander wrote:

    Is war coming? I have lived in Sevastopol since 2006, through two wars and one revolution (one particularly nasty war ongoing in Novorossiya) and, while I say nothing that would in the least violate OpSec, I will say war is a gnat's eyelash from commencing. Neither Rossiya nor VVP and his team want war but if war is forced on them/us so be it. EU as it is known today will cease to exist and США will also continue in the long downward spiral she is in now. Pity, what could have been, what should have been and what will not be. США will also cease to exist and devolve in to chaos, violence and virtually a civil war, a tragedy that will go down in history for all time and God help the innocents trapped in that horror show.

    Auslander

    I am afraid we all have no control over any potential outcome.

    Certainly i hope it does not result in open conflict.

    Politicians in the west are blind and ignorant.
    They scream for war, yet they are not the ones that will do the fighting and dying.
    Their millitary's hollowed out by decades of foreign intervention.

    The EU will indeed disentegrate as soon war break's out.
    There is no unity, ...its all a puppet show to the outside world.

    War itself is an incredible waste of people, resources, and money.
    It does not matter how many conflicts the west starts, and their troops return home with stories calling for accountability of their politicians.
    Or want to tell their story about the horrible side of war. It does not matter.
    Total control over the Media in the West silences any dissent, Both of critical journalists and Veterans.

    Whatever will happen to the E.U. It deserves the consequences of its hubris.
    Of course,...war affects all that are involved. That would include all of Ukraine and neighbouring countries.

    If it is any comfort, know that Russia and its allies will make short work of NATO within a week when war break's out.
    Speaking from personal knowledge of NATO logistics and readiness.

    It is just the U.S nuclear weapons in europe that are the wildcard.
    The U.S government is corrupt and insane.
    If they can not have Europe, they rather will see it burn trough nuclear fire.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  magnumcromagnon Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:32 pm

    Apparently War Gonzo is still up:

    https://www.youtube.com/c/WarGonzo/videos

    They were famous for the Donbass footage with the makeshift 23mm anti-material rifle.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:01 pm

    You can almost see the strategy unfolding

    The Eurasianist Orthodox cross
    @Russ_Warrior
    ·
    2h
    Pretty obvious that Kiev and US/UK want to stage a big provocation in Donbass and hide all sources covering the conflict from the other side of the frontline.

    ASB News / MILITARYPart alternation mark
    @ASBMilitary
    · 3h
    Facebook joins YouTube and deletes all official Facebook accounts with thousands of followers of regional Donetsk and Donbas officials — DPR

    marqs
    @MarQs__
    ·
    2h
    Three of #Russia's largest state TV channels have warned in their evening news that an Ukrainian attack on pro-Russian separatists is "imminent"



    EDIT

    Spriter
    @spriter99880
    ·
    11h
    The Commander-in-Chief and the Commission of the General Staff of the Army of Ukraine will soon arrive in Donbass to assess the readiness of the troops for the offensive


    Last edited by JohninMK on Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:14 pm

    The clearout is continuing.

    Spriter
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    ·
    1h
    Polish Prime Minister Matthias Murawski said on Friday that Poland would start sending weapons to Ukraine next week, adding that the weapons would include tens of thousands of artillery shells, as well as mortars and grenade launchers.
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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:15 pm

    I'm certain Russia is sending weapons to the forces in DNR and LNR anyway.

    But Russia needs to collect all this open news and evidence of said weapons and use it against the west and to its own people and say "see, this is what we are talking about".

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    Post  Isos Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:42 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The clearout is continuing.

    Spriter
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    Polish Prime Minister Matthias Murawski said on Friday that Poland would start sending weapons to Ukraine next week, adding that the weapons would include tens of thousands of artillery shells, as well as mortars and grenade launchers.

    Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.

    Russia will seize more hardware than it will spend. They will have to thank NATO for all of that. Javelin will be funny to use against NATO tanks.

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    Post  par far Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:19 am

    miketheterrible wrote:I'm certain Russia is sending weapons to the forces in DNR and LNR anyway.

    But Russia needs to collect all this open news and evidence of said weapons and use it against the west and to its own people and say "see, this is what we are talking about".


    I don't think anyone will listen, the best thing is to start blowing up Ukie weapons depots.

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    Post  par far Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:22 am

    Isos wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:The clearout is continuing.

    Spriter
    @spriter99880
    ·
    1h
    Polish Prime Minister Matthias Murawski said on Friday that Poland would start sending weapons to Ukraine next week, adding that the weapons would include tens of thousands of artillery shells, as well as mortars and grenade launchers.

    Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.

    Russia will seize more hardware than it will spend. They will have to thank NATO for all of that. Javelin will be funny to use against NATO tanks.


    Very true, a lot of weapons were seized in the Debaltseve pocket, same thing might happen here.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:58 am

    Russia can't keep its forces around ukraine indefinitly. They moved to many things weakening the other borders.

    The biggest threat to Russia at the moment is HATO and the location the forces are currently located is only roughly in the vicinity of the Ukraine rather that sitting right on the border. Many of the Russian forces were relocated fairly rapidly to where they are now which suggests if they need more they can boost numbers even further and if they want to de-escalate then they could do that too.

    The point is that Kiev has amassed its forces on its border with Eastern Ukriane... has increased its numbers of people conscripted to the armed forces and increased the pay for all their soldiers... and I think I know which of the two countries could afford to maintain such a stance for the longest.

    The Russian forces are not mobilised conscripts... whether they are where they currently are or somewhere else in Russia does not matter that much in the scheme of things... they are mobile forces that go where they are needed.

    If Kiev stands its forces down I am sure Russia would reciprocate but as long as Kievs forces are poised for an attack it would not make sense for Russia to do anything else.

    But they are not as stupid as you think. Thry know if russia attacks them they will loose in 2 days. So they will never attack Donbas.

    It is not about stupidity, it is about desperation and who they think is on their side.

    Ask the tie eater... he thought the west had his back and the open borders with SO and Abkhazia with Russia would mean Georgia had lost all control of those regions so he needed swift and decisive action... bold action to take back that land...

    For Zelensky, it might just be that he faces an internal coup if he does not stand strong against Putin and Russia and seize back these regions they claim the Russians currently occupy... including Crimea.

    That was followed and plenty of pictures and video show their troop mouvement there. That's not really secret. They have moved tons of mterials and now will move soldiers to man them.

    The locations given for those movements are 400km away from any border with Ukraine.

    And Europe would be right to think Putin is planning something worse for Europe than all out war with the Ukraine... Putin is shifting or pivoting as the west would call it... away from the west and towards the rest of the world... which is going to be quite difficult for the west to come to terms with.

    Whatever will happen to the E.U. It deserves the consequences of its hubris.

    The core problem is that western politicians are never held to account.... like Teflon Boris, or Tony B Liar... and so many others around the western world...

    I'm certain Russia is sending weapons to the forces in DNR and LNR anyway.

    I think they need to announce that in response to western countries arming Kiev to murder its own citizens in the east that Russia will supply weapons to help them defend themselves... if that does not stop the weapons supply from the west then openly supply them with a range of weapons.

    Russia will seize more hardware than it will spend. They will have to thank NATO for all of that. Javelin will be funny to use against NATO tanks.

    The irony is that Javelin would be most effective against T-80 and Abrams tanks with Gas Turbines because of their enormous IR signatures...

    I don't think anyone will listen, the best thing is to start blowing up Ukie weapons depots.

    Slip some crates of HE with long burn fuses...

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    Post  RTN Sat Feb 05, 2022 8:40 am

    Isos wrote:Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.
    Says who. F-35s will team up with PAC-3, THAAD to shoot down any Russian cruise missile fired at Ukranian target by using a combination of TPS-80, MPQ-54 radars and the sensors aboard the F-35. NATO can carry out this operation without even entering Ukranian airspace.

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    Post  Singular_Transform Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:34 am

    RTN wrote:
    Isos wrote:Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.  
    Says who. F-35s will team up with PAC-3, THAAD to shoot down any Russian cruise missile fired at Ukranian target by using a combination of TPS-80, MPQ-54 radars and the sensors aboard the F-35. NATO can carry out this operation without even entering Ukranian airspace.

    Or they just call Captain America and Superman wto protect Ukraine from the evil Russians.

    Why complicate the story with technoblabla ?

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    ATLASCUB
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    Post  ATLASCUB Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:13 am

    I like when Russian military nonsense commentary gets balanced out by NATO military nonsense commentary. Both equally as idiotic, the perfect language that gets the chicken pen active. Quack! Quack!

    "Launch some Kinzhals across the border, done deal in 24 hrs. Ukraine is toast! Russia doesn't have to do a thing!"

    "Fly some F-35s, get a destroyer with some SM-6's close... done deal"

    This is going to be a complete shitshow. Griftersphere readying the knives. Never let a good crisis go to waste. "My friends I/we need your help!" The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 1f602
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:33 am

    @ RTN



    Don't think this is a reverse Syria situation or mirror  for America . Where Russia can afford a complete defensive posture against yank and Israeli attacks , killing Syrians . Here there are dire consequences , far more serious for Russia , since Russians will be killed or evicted . So go ahead at your own risk !


    @ JohninMK

    marqs
    @MarQs__
    ·
    2h
    Three of #Russia's largest state TV channels have warned in their evening news that an Ukrainian attack on pro-Russian separatists is "imminent"


    Well a question for all , I have been thinking about ? When is it best to react to Kiev invasion of Eastern districts ? In WWII , the Soviets allowed massing of German Nazi troops on border without retaliation . Even not retaliating when they crossed border at first . History repeats ? Yes best allow complete annihilation and occupation first ?


    Edit ; thinking about responses .
    My answer : Same answer I gave for retaliation against Israeli attacks in Syria . Make sure the public knows and understands the necessity of a retaliation . So any attack should be well televised and accurate , so that the people in the world are that a response is needed . The response itself should be proportional and aim to neutralise the attacking forces in local area only .


    Last edited by nomadski on Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Isos Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:08 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:I like when Russian military nonsense commentary gets balanced out by NATO military nonsense commentary. Both equally as idiotic, the perfect language that gets the chicken pen active. Quack! Quack!

    "Launch some Kinzhals across the border, done deal in 24 hrs. Ukraine is toast! Russia doesn't have to do a thing!"

    "Fly some F-35s, get a destroyer with some SM-6's close... done deal"

    This is going to be a complete shitshow. Griftersphere readying the knives. Never let a good crisis go to waste. "My friends I/we need your help!"  The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 1f602

    The advantage of russia is overwhelming in all aspects. Ukrainian soldiers love living just as much as you. They aren't your meat to fight to death.

    Once sukhois start bombing the shit out of their hardware they will surrender. They have nothing to counter russians.

    And modern warfare is really quick. Just look how US destroyed iraqi vehicles with the airforce in matter of hours. Thousands were destroyed in few days.

    Iskander flight time is 5 minutes. They will destroy the most strategical targets in less than one hour.

    Ukraine is flat with no forest. They can't hide.

    But yeah keep thinking ukrainian will run loose their life to just use a stupid Javelin mighty missile so that the mighty keyboard warriors and generals can "analyse" the war.

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    Post  ATLASCUB Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:13 am

    You don't know what I'm thinking junior. Stay on the sanity path.
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    Post  Singular_Transform Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:13 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:I like when Russian military nonsense commentary gets balanced out by NATO military nonsense commentary. Both equally as idiotic, the perfect language that gets the chicken pen active. Quack! Quack!

    "Launch some Kinzhals across the border, done deal in 24 hrs. Ukraine is toast! Russia doesn't have to do a thing!"

    "Fly some F-35s, get a destroyer with some SM-6's close... done deal"

    This is going to be a complete shitshow. Griftersphere readying the knives. Never let a good crisis go to waste. "My friends I/we need your help!"  The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 1f602


    Are you avare how sensitive the high voltage transformers for a single hole ?

    I mean, it takes 300 grams of explosive to knock out a backbone transformer for 6 months.

    The charge has to punch a hole, and inject metal fragments that penetrate the regulator coil, and reach the high voltage coils.

    On the burning hole the transformer oil will ignite.

    To fix the coil you need to lift out the active part, disassembly the laminated core, lift out the damaged coil stack(s) disassemble them , inspect the damage and order new batch of wire. That requiring ordering (most likelly)drawing dies,and usually takes months to produce. High voltage backbone transformers has special wires, made to the given transformer. They used for 60 years ,means the original drawdies rarelly  available to make new wires.


    After arrival the damaged coils needs re-winindg, assembly of the stack, dry in a kerosene vacuum chamber, connect, close and fill up, finally full test, including the lightning strike test as well.


    300 grams of TNT, with 10 kg of water backing , and you get this effect.
    Or an RPG 7 .

    If the tap changer damaged then that will comlicate more the refurbishment, again, most likelly it will require to make a tap changer not in production since the 80s, however the MAchinefabrik Reinhausen and the ABB quite good to keep all product allive . The MR supplied lot of transformer tap changer in the eastern block,and there was licensed production as well.

    Means 30 of those could destroy the whole electrical infrastructure of a country for at least a good year, and takes 6 month to start to recove part of the system.


    So, how could Ukraine keep allive its electrical system if Russia decide to collapse the country ?


    Last edited by Singular_Transform on Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:25 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Hole Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:39 am

    auslander wrote:
    So here's me and VCO (Victor Charlie Oscar, aka Vertically Challenged One, my wife is, for those who don't understand metric, 4'10" and 95  pounds of ornery Russian Lady who doesn't take prisoners, eyes on verification...and she's a crack shot at distances I can't even see anymore) having a long and leisurely dinner over some to die for Massandrah Roseveh and discussing everything and anything. She uses different sources of information than I use so we hash over everything at the noon and evening meal and come up with a synopsis of who is doing what, with which and to whom.

    SehSha (США) is in deep kaka. SehSha can scream and shout all she wants, she has been totally outmaneuvered by VVP, Lavrov, Shoigu....and Katai. It will go down in history as one of the greatest blunders of all time when SehSha drove Mat Rossiya and Katai together and then, wonder of all wonders, decided to start sanctions against Katai (!) to 'prevent' any circumnavigation of Rossiya around the constant and ever increasing sanctions imposed on Mat Rossiya. One would question the sanity of SehSha, it just don't make any sense.

    Is war coming? I have lived in Sevastopol since 2006, through two wars and one revolution (one particularly nasty war ongoing in Novorossiya) and, while I say nothing that would in the least violate OpSec, I will say war is a gnat's eyelash from commencing. Neither Rossiya nor VVP and his team want war but if war is forced on them/us so be it. EU as it is known today will cease to exist and США will also continue in the long downward spiral she is in now. Pity, what could have been, what should have been and what will not be. США will also cease to exist and devolve in to chaos, violence and virtually a civil war, a tragedy that will go down in history for all time and God help the innocents trapped in that horror show.

    Auslander

    Civil war means some level of organisation. They´re not able to do this anymore. They will just kill each other, gangster style.
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    Post  Hole Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:42 am

    RTN wrote:
    Isos wrote:Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.  
    Says who. F-35s will team up with PAC-3, THAAD to shoot down any Russian cruise missile fired at Ukranian target by using a combination of TPS-80, MPQ-54 radars and the sensors aboard the F-35. NATO can carry out this operation without even entering Ukranian airspace.

    THAAD can´t hit low flying targets. Yemen has shown that PAC-3 is a joke. F-35 would be shot down immediately.

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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:22 pm

    Hole wrote:
    RTN wrote:
    Isos wrote:Lol. Ukrainian artillery won't survive more than 2 hours. Su-25 will chase it all day long. Ukrainians will go as far as possible from big hardware because that will be targeted from the air, they won't even heard the bomb coming.  
    Says who. F-35s will team up with PAC-3, THAAD to shoot down any Russian cruise missile fired at Ukranian target by using a combination of TPS-80, MPQ-54 radars and the sensors aboard the F-35. NATO can carry out this operation without even entering Ukranian airspace.

    THAAD can´t hit low flying targets. Yemen has shown that PAC-3 is a joke. F-35 would be shot down immediately.

    As well, where would THAAD come from? Same with PAC 3? The ships carrying PAC would sink then.  We seen these AD systems in action and tested, didn't work. Saudi Arabia is more important to US than Ukraine and Yemen proved that their systems were garbage.

    The f35 even added to this joke is hilarious. RTN lives in fantasy land anyway. But let's just say, cruise missiles would be landing on both American and Ukrainian targets if America attempted to engage Russia.

    It's moot anyway since US capitulated to Russia in leaked document of what US gave and now their attempts are to just flood Ukrainen with small arms and Mercenaries. Neither which case is useful for Ukraine. Just a great potential to start the conflict that further flattens Ukraine and have more evidence of US committing further human rights abuses.

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    Isos
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  Isos Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:52 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:You don't know what I'm thinking junior. Stay on the sanity path.

    Enlight us with your experience senior. Tell us how Russia isn't going to win a war against Ukraine easily.

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    JohninMK
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  JohninMK Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:54 pm

    OK lets stop concentrating on the mainly tactical military perspective and look at this from a strategic objective perspective of both Ukraine and the US.

    Kiev has legislated to bring the Donbas back under its control. It is likely that they would ideally like be rid of the Russian speaking, now heavily Russian citizens, peoples out of their country for the same reason that Russia wants then to stay, as a balance in the population post Minsk. They can do that by physically driving them out or by making them want to leave. If they can make their Master, the US, happy by giving Russia a refugee problem so much the better.

    So, working on that basis what can they do (look at the types of incoming 'gear' from the US, UK and especially Poland) to try and achieve their objective and how long have they got? I think not long before an incoming Russian barrage stops them.

    That is clearly not not enough time to drive the population out. So they have to try to make the place uninhabitable. What to do and how?

    Generally speaking a population is dependent on power, work, education and health. Even after, for political reasons, leaving the bulk of the housing stock alone, eliminate them and there is a real problem, especially in winter. Can they do it?

    Imagine that the first few salvos of an artillery barrage, before any significant response, using every barrel or tube they have, targets not the front line as perhaps expected but the infrastructure, work sites, schools, hospitals etc. behind it. At the same time all these new goodies from the West, got to make the donors feel they helped, plus anything say 100mm or smaller are used to suppress the trench systems with tanks targeting any local artillery.

    Given the shallow depth of the territory any target in it could be attacked. I don't know, but given that the exact location of all targets is known and all that was needed was HE munitions, I would imaging that would do a huge amount of not easily or quickly repairable damage.

    Then, after 15 minutes Kiev announces a ceasefire, implementation of Minsk and TV starts broadcasting video of troops packing up to go home, whilst 'out of control' Azov roams.

    This hits so many US hot buttons it must be at or near the top of their advice list.

    Russia has only a few minutes, perhaps seconds, to cut this off at the pass. Intel will be key but most of us here suspect that Russia's response will be timely and devastating.

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    nomadski
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 38 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:09 pm

    You answered my question . Because there is no depth of defence and Kiev has ability by being next to border , to cause significant damage in first strike . Then this response can not be delayed to win public opinion and obtain proof . A few minutes to respond ? Needs accurate satellite and real time drone  info on fixed positions . Short range BM with low minimal distance engagement ability of less than 300km  at the ready . Need these to be in range of targets now .

    Distance Luhansk to Zaporozhia is 300 km . Contact line .

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander

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