Russian Economy General News: #12

This is an article saying that Russia would be hurt by SWIFT early on and the German Bank most exposed to Russia:

British media warn: Russia will make the whole world starve, by Valery Mikhailov for RiANovosti. 29.01.2022.

In the West, on the eve of the spring sowing season, they nevertheless noticed the “elephant”, which until then had been stubbornly ignored: we are talking about future problems with the harvest, which will be caused by a shortage or high cost of fertilizers. Interestingly, almost simultaneously this trouble was noticed by such monsters as The Wall Street Journal and The Times . At the same time, the British went further than the Americans, who limited themselves to only indicating the seriousness of the problem. The Times, on the other hand, predicted famine around the world, and at the same time appointed the culprit - of course, Russia . They say that fertilizer prices are rising due to rising gas prices, which, in turn, was provoked by Russia.

This statement is, of course, absurd, no matter how you approach it. In particular, in 2021, Russia increased gas production by ten percent compared to the previous year. Export deliveries in physical terms also increased, albeit slightly, by about two percent. They could rise even more, but it is the European Union , with which Russia is best connected by gas pipelines, that has done everything in recent years to prevent this from happening.

After all, it was the EU back in 2009 that adopted the so-called third energy package directed against gas producing companies and, first of all, against Gazprom . He assumed the redistribution of profits of the Russian corporation in favor of European gas distribution companies and traders. By various methods: from the initial separation of gas production and transportation to the later transition from a long-term contractual gas supply scheme at an agreed (formula) price to a spot one with exchange prices.

At first, the new scheme worked as it was supposed to by its initiators - gas prices in Europe fell slightly, as did Gazprom's profits. And the year before last, it even got to the point that the concern was forced to supply gas at a loss to itself.

At the same time, the Polish company PGNiG managed to win arbitration from Gazprom, having achieved a revision of the formula for the price of deliveries under the contract: a significant component of exchange prices for gas was added to the price formula previously linked to oil and oil products. This also led to the return by the corporation of $1.5 billion overpaid by the Poles, and to a change in the price formula in most of Gazprom's other long-term contracts.

But then 2021 came and the attraction of unprecedented generosity ended.

As part of the recovery of the global economy after the severe pandemic restrictions of 2020, in addition, against the backdrop of the green agenda imposed by the West, due to which investments in the exploration and development of hydrocarbon deposits were sharply reduced, there was a shortage of gas in the first half of the year, which spurred an increase in prices on exchanges. All of Gazprom's counterparties, who rewrote the formula in long-term contracts, began to receive contractual gas at ever higher prices as prices on the stock exchange rose. By the way, not everyone did it. Turkey , for example, left the old formula and now receives gas at one of the lowest prices in Europe. But Poland has already overpaid four billion dollars thanks to its Pyrrhic victory and continues to do so.

Against all this background, Europe itself is delaying the certification of the operator of the brand new Nord Stream 2 for almost a year . And this despite the fact that the "Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine", which was separated from Naftogaz of Ukraine in December 2019 and operates the old Ukrainian pipe, was certified by the Europeans in a couple of days.

In a word, the situation with expensive gas was created exclusively by the hands of the West and, above all, the Europeans. And therefore something else is surprising: that the problems of shortage and high cost of fertilizers in America and Europe have been noticed only today. We warned about this back in October . It was then that it became known about the massive reduction in the production of fertilizers by European manufacturers. First, as part of their refusal to buy additional gas at spot prices in excess of those received under long-term contracts. But with a lag of a couple of months, for the reasons described above, the price of contract gas also rose significantly. In total, up to 40 percent of production capacities were stopped in Europe in autumn.

In most countries of the world, stocks of fertilizers have been significantly reduced. A number of states restrict or prohibit their export, in particular, China - the export of phosphate fertilizers. From December 1, 2021, Russia introduced quotas for the export of fertilizers for six months. In this situation, the North Korean authorities , having largely lost access to Chinese fertilizers, obliged their peasants to collect human excrement in this capacity - and there is little to laugh about: the terrible famine of the 1990s is still remembered in the country. What is the West doing? He imposes sanctions against Belarusian fertilizers, thus shooting himself in the foot, but blaming Russia.

As a result, compared to 2020, at the end of 2021, fertilizer prices on the world market rose by 2-3 or more times, depending on the type. And the European price tag on them is at the forefront. Against this background, Russia looks like an island of stability. According to the Ministry of Agriculture , prices for fertilizers are now even falling here. And although, of course, they remain above the prices of 2020, they have returned to about the level of the summer of 2021. The gap with world prices has formed quite significant, and the ministry does not expect this trend to change.

Regarding the situation on the world market, we can confidently say that due to the shortage and high cost of fertilizers, their use will decrease this year. Which will inevitably lead to a drop in yields and an increase in prices for agricultural products, both due to an increase in its cost (due to rising prices for fertilizers, fuel, plant protection products, and so on), and due to the insufficiency of the crop itself. That is, the situation on the food market is being sucked into a kind of funnel of events, and on a global scale it is hardly possible to change anything much. Some countries will face a rise in food prices to a greater or lesser extent, others will face real hunger. And not because of natural disasters, but because of the actions taken by the collective West - from the frenzied work of printing presses in the US and Europe to unhealthy decisions.

https://ria.ru/20220129/golod-1770070135.html

So, according to Rosstat , the average monthly income for each citizen of Russia in 2020 amounted to 35,740 rubles. By the end of 2021, this amount is likely to be at the level of 37,000 -38,000 rubles.
This roughly corresponds to the level of 430-440 euros per person in Russia monthly.
If we apply an approximate conversion factor for purchasing power k = 2.6, we will get that the income of the Russian population approximately corresponds to the level of 1100 euros per month for each citizen on average.

As for me specifically, over the past year my income amounted to about 1400 euros per month (after taxes). Using the same conversion factor of purchasing power, it turns out that my income corresponds to a salary of about 3600 euros per month in a European country (Add to this amount is taxed in your specific country).

They say that fertilizer prices are rising due to rising gas prices, which, in turn, was provoked by Russia.

By the way, not everyone did it. Turkey , for example, left the old formula and now receives gas at one of the lowest prices in Europe. But Poland has already overpaid four billion dollars thanks to its Pyrrhic victory and continues to do so.

Against all this background, Europe itself is delaying the certification of the operator of the brand new Nord Stream 2 for almost a year . And this despite the fact that the "Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine", which was separated from Naftogaz of Ukraine in December 2019 and operates the old Ukrainian pipe, was certified by the Europeans in a couple of days.

Gazprom does not set the European spot market price.

miketheterrible wrote:Current methods of calculating wages is a joke.

What needs to be looking at is how much is the average savings per country.

That gives an indication how well the people themselves are doing.

Reason why I say this is because on paper, out west, we are rich. In reality, we live paycheck to paycheck.  So we lack a savings. My understanding is in Russia and other countries, on average, people have a savings.

kvs wrote:
Taxation is also a big difference.   In Russia there is a 13% flat income tax

Scorpius wrote:

kvs wrote:
Taxation is also a big difference.   In Russia there is a 13% flat income tax

In fact, even better. Part of my income is taxed at 13%. But there is another part: I also have an income as a self-employed person in my free time from my main job. And from this income I pay only 6%. And almost all of last year it was generally only 4%, since the government provides a bonus of 10,000 rubles, which is spent on compensation of 2% tax for everyone who registers as self-employed (this is a state program). By the way, as of September 2021, there were already more than 3 million people like me.

par far wrote:Oil prices have hit $90 per barrel of oil, what effects will this have on Russia?

par far wrote:Oil prices have hit $90 per barrel of oil, what effects will this have on Russia?

ALAMO wrote:

par far wrote:Oil prices have hit $90 per barrel of oil, what effects will this have on Russia?

You can guess, as they have a budget tailored for an average $44