Russian product has flooded the largest market in the world, 29.07.2021.
MOSCOW, July 29 - RIA Novosti, Irina Badmaeva. In terms of beef exports to China, Russia has overtaken Australia, Argentina and Brazil. And deliveries are likely to continue to increase over the next five years. Does this not threaten domestic consumption - RIA Novosti figured out.
The Chinese got a taste of Russian beef
The Center for Industry Expertise (SEO) of the Rosselkhozbank reported that in the first quarter, China purchased 3.7 thousand tons of Russian beef - 20 times more than a year ago.
The share of the PRC in the total export of cattle meat (cattle) exceeded 55 percent. In total, Russia sent 6.5 thousand tons abroad in January-March, almost two and a half times more than in 2020.
In China, its own pork production has decreased: the African plague has crippled it. In addition, preferences are gradually changing. The market has opened up to foreign manufacturers.
However, they ran into problems. In Australia, because of the pandemic, seven meat factories have stopped. Exports were suspended in order to revive the livestock. Argentina has cut supplies by 50 percent: it is necessary to contain prices in the domestic market.
In Brazil, back in 2017, several dozen agricultural enterprises were closed due to non-compliance with sanitary conditions. By the way, Brazilian butchers have often found themselves in the center of scandals. A growth biostimulator - ractopamine - and salmonella bacteria were identified in their products. This damaged the reputation of the companies.
As a result, Russian beef has appeared on Chinese tables. Prior to that, negotiations on trade cooperation continued for seven years. We mainly shipped products to neighboring countries.
“The high rates of export growth in the first quarter are explained by the effect of a low base and a competitive price,” explained Andrey Dalnov, director of the Center for Economic Analysis of Rosselkhozbank.
The need for imports from China will remain for at least another five years. "This means that supplies will continue to grow. Accordingly, and incomes," - said the chief economist of the information and analytical center TeleTrade Mark Goykhman.
Hong Kong imported 234 tons from Russia in January - March, Uzbekistan - 256, Saudi Arabia - 497. We started trading with Hong Kong back in the dock 2019. When mainland China opened, the "entry point" to the Asian market was not changed.
Domestic producers are actively exploring the Middle East. In addition to the Saudis, the priority is the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
"The growth in the export of this type of meat will allow maintaining production. It will provide investment attractiveness in the long term," says Svetlana Panasenko, head of the basic department of trade policy of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Ukraine (78 tons), Vietnam (415 tons) and Ghana (295 tons) showed negative dynamics.
Don't need someone else
It is believed that Russia gave up imported food, in particular meat, in 2014. In fact, the process was launched in 2012, when the state program for the development of agriculture was adopted and the interest on investment loans in the agricultural sector was partially compensated.
Of course, anti-Russian sanctions accelerated matters. But measures against dependence on foreign products were already in place. As a result, Russia restored animal husbandry. From 2014 to 2020, purchases abroad in kind decreased threefold, the Ministry of Agriculture notes. First of all - pork and poultry. And our own production is enough for export.
However, the existing balance was upset this year. According to the Federal Customs Service, in January-April, Russia purchased meat by almost 20 percent less than in the same period of 2020. Import - 77.6 thousand tons. At the same time, sales abroad for some items increased fivefold.
The explanation is simple: demand and prices are increasing in the world. Moreover, less and less beef is bought on the domestic market. Therefore, domestic companies have reoriented themselves.
Cattle meat production has been growing since 2018. Even now, amid a pandemic and a drop in real incomes of the population, the dynamics are positive. The indicator for the first quarter is 314 thousand tons. In agricultural enterprises, an increase of one percent, up to 139.4 thousand tons. In farms - by eight, up to 32.4 thousand tons.
"In Russia, the annual demand for beef reaches 1.94 million tons. Export is 20 thousand, that is, a little more than a percent. Therefore, you should not worry that supplies to China will lead to higher prices in stores. There will be no shortage," Svetlana Panasenko emphasizes. ...
Unlike the Chinese, Russians prefer cheaper chicken and pork. About 17 percent buy beef. And in the world, demand is slightly higher - about 20.
As for prices, according to Rosstat, in 2020 the price of meat rose slightly: by two to three percent. But the pace has increased. In the first half of the year, pork added 6.7 percent, beef - 5.6 percent. And chicken is ahead of all - almost 13 percent. A deficit has arisen due to the outbreak of avian flu. Plus, there are problems with the supply of foreign hatching eggs, increasing the price of feed.
However, poultry and pork production is profitable quickly. It is much more expensive to raise cattle. A significant share of the livestock is concentrated in personal subsidiary plots, and there are fewer and fewer of them. Large agricultural holdings are reluctant to enter this segment. The payback period for a project from scratch is ten to twelve years.
The current cost of beef does not allow production to be sufficiently profitable. Therefore, farmers will be forced to raise prices. It is predicted that by 2030 this type of meat will rise in price by 10-15 percent.