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    Russian Economy General News: #12

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jul 28, 2021 7:43 pm

    5% growth this year, 4% next year, and an average of 4% for the rest of the decade

    That's what Russia needs. And if the govt doesn't fulfill that, then they're lame. They have everything they need. Only worry is rising inflation and the possibility of the economy overheating - for the later they have only themselves to blame with their draconian limits and impositions on migrants throughout the pandemic.

    As it is, oil/gas prices have shot up, the service sector has recovered, and there are tons of investments into industry and infrastructure. After falling 3% last year; by all rights they should reach 5% this year.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:29 pm

    Maybe Russia has more state owned enterprises compared to the USA but fundamentally it is a market economy and not centrally
    planned. So the only thing that the government can do is to maintain a viable macro-economic policy. It does not control the
    percentage of growth aside from sabotaging it with comprador shenanigans. There is no indication that the macro-economic policy
    under Putin is any sort of fail. It has been a success for the last 22 years. This is evidenced by a slew of metrics from increasing
    real wages to increasing average lifespans accompanied by declines in alcoholism and various pathologies that set in late in the
    USSR period and the 1990s.

    The NATzO sanctions spasm after 2014 has set Russia on the right path in terms of domestic growth. Marco-economic distortions
    left by Yeltsin have finally been rectified or are in the process of being rectified. This is why the EU is crapping its pants at the
    WTO. The post 2014 import substitution has really stimulated Russian SMEs. The only real problem left is the monetarist
    clowns infesting the CBR and the Ministry of Finance. But they are in a small box and have failed to sabotage Russia's economic
    revival.

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:05 pm

    ^ In the finance crony capitalist world we live in today, being state owned is as asset rather than a liability. UAC is building brand new products , military and civilian. While Boeing is busy pouring its money into buying back its own stock.

    I used to drink the koolaid about how bad state owned companies are just from an ideological standpoint. But its far more complicated than that. There is plenty of state owned companies that run just like a private business. Better in some cases today.

    Every company in the US even nominally non state owned, is defacto nationalized by the central bank. They all float on a sea of money being printed at the Fed.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-non-bailout-how-the-fed-saved-boeing-without-paying-a-dime-1.1430308

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:39 pm

    Reality always has a way of diverging from theory. Especially when theories are simplistic and based more on ideology than empirical
    evidence. Comprador capitalism has been a systematic failure for most of humanity. That first world countries have "high" standards
    of living and large middle classes (for now) is basically a combination of trickle down from the colonial creaming operation run by the
    first world clique and from outright socialist policies after WWII that have stimulated the growth of the middle class. The Cold War
    forced the capitalist west to invest more in the proles to win the propaganda battle. One of the key arguments against the USSR
    was that people there were not as well off (*). This line really hit home with the nomenklatura who basically sold out and destroyed
    the USSR from within because they wanted to be filthy rich like the mythical west.

    (*) Well off is subjective. Soviet citizens maybe did not have as much consumer trash and lacked 4 car garages in McMansions
    spread out over the wastes of exubria, but they were not poor. The problem is that when things are given they are taken for
    granted. Instead of appreciating what they had, people pined for BS "wealth" they did not have. Other metrics are worthwhile
    including social conditions. People were less isolated from each other in the USSR of the 1970s compared to the rich west.
    After 1990 the westernization breakdown of the community started to set in. I do not think it is so bad, but if all that people
    do is grub after money and material satisfaction, then society is really in decline.

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    ALAMO

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:05 am

    kvs wrote:Maybe Russia has more state owned enterprises compared to the USA but fundamentally it is a market economy and not centrally
    planned.   So the only thing that the government can do is to maintain a viable macro-economic policy.   It does not control the
    percentage of growth aside from sabotaging it with comprador shenanigans.   There is no indication that the macro-economic policy
    under Putin is any sort of fail.   It has been a success for the last 22 years.   This is evidenced by a slew of metrics from increasing
    real wages to increasing average lifespans accompanied by declines in alcoholism and various pathologies that set in late in the
    USSR period and the 1990s.
    The NATzO sanctions spasm after 2014 has set Russia on the right path in terms of domestic growth.   Marco-economic distortions
    left by Yeltsin have finally been rectified or are in the process of being rectified.    This is why the EU is crapping its pants at the
    WTO.   The post 2014 import substitution has really stimulated Russian SMEs.    The only real problem left is the monetarist
    clowns infesting the CBR and the Ministry of Finance.  But they are in a small box and have failed to sabotage Russia's economic
    revival.


    Well, yes and no.
    The biggest pressure on the long-term investment plans is put on giant companies, that are under governmental control.
    Novatec, Gazprom, Rosatom, RŻD, Rosneft ... All of them have their piece of cake to get but must pay for it first.
    Along, there is an RDIF, cumulating the cash from the welfare fund.
    Check the official Sputnik V site, you will be amazed how many joint ventures they finance with that single product only. I was shocked.
    There are state funds allocated to targeted programs.
    So in reality, the Russian govt has a huge influence on the overall execution of economic goals.
    But as you are right and Russia is a market economy just the way any other social welfare state would have been, ie. Norway, Germany or France, influence the market with help of different assets rather than central steering.

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:36 pm

    Russian product has flooded the largest market in the world, 29.07.2021.

    MOSCOW, July 29 - RIA Novosti, Irina Badmaeva. In terms of beef exports to China, Russia has overtaken Australia, Argentina and Brazil. And deliveries are likely to continue to increase over the next five years. Does this not threaten domestic consumption - RIA Novosti figured out.

    The Chinese got a taste of Russian beef

    The Center for Industry Expertise (SEO) of the Rosselkhozbank reported that in the first quarter, China purchased 3.7 thousand tons of Russian beef - 20 times more than a year ago.

    The share of the PRC in the total export of cattle meat (cattle) exceeded 55 percent. In total, Russia sent 6.5 thousand tons abroad in January-March, almost two and a half times more than in 2020.

    In China, its own pork production has decreased: the African plague has crippled it. In addition, preferences are gradually changing. The market has opened up to foreign manufacturers.

    However, they ran into problems. In Australia, because of the pandemic, seven meat factories have stopped. Exports were suspended in order to revive the livestock. Argentina has cut supplies by 50 percent: it is necessary to contain prices in the domestic market.

    In Brazil, back in 2017, several dozen agricultural enterprises were closed due to non-compliance with sanitary conditions. By the way, Brazilian butchers have often found themselves in the center of scandals. A growth biostimulator - ractopamine - and salmonella bacteria were identified in their products. This damaged the reputation of the companies.

    As a result, Russian beef has appeared on Chinese tables. Prior to that, negotiations on trade cooperation continued for seven years. We mainly shipped products to neighboring countries.

    “The high rates of export growth in the first quarter are explained by the effect of a low base and a competitive price,” explained Andrey Dalnov, director of the Center for Economic Analysis of Rosselkhozbank.

    The need for imports from China will remain for at least another five years. "This means that supplies will continue to grow. Accordingly, and incomes," - said the chief economist of the information and analytical center TeleTrade Mark Goykhman.

    Hong Kong imported 234 tons from Russia in January - March, Uzbekistan - 256, Saudi Arabia - 497. We started trading with Hong Kong back in the dock 2019. When mainland China opened, the "entry point" to the Asian market was not changed.

    Domestic producers are actively exploring the Middle East. In addition to the Saudis, the priority is the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

    "The growth in the export of this type of meat will allow maintaining production. It will provide investment attractiveness in the long term," says Svetlana Panasenko, head of the basic department of trade policy of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

    Ukraine (78 tons), Vietnam (415 tons) and Ghana (295 tons) showed negative dynamics.

    Don't need someone else

    It is believed that Russia gave up imported food, in particular meat, in 2014. In fact, the process was launched in 2012, when the state program for the development of agriculture was adopted and the interest on investment loans in the agricultural sector was partially compensated.

    Of course, anti-Russian sanctions accelerated matters. But measures against dependence on foreign products were already in place. As a result, Russia restored animal husbandry. From 2014 to 2020, purchases abroad in kind decreased threefold, the Ministry of Agriculture notes. First of all - pork and poultry. And our own production is enough for export.

    However, the existing balance was upset this year. According to the Federal Customs Service, in January-April, Russia purchased meat by almost 20 percent less than in the same period of 2020. Import - 77.6 thousand tons. At the same time, sales abroad for some items increased fivefold.

    The explanation is simple: demand and prices are increasing in the world. Moreover, less and less beef is bought on the domestic market. Therefore, domestic companies have reoriented themselves.

    Cattle meat production has been growing since 2018. Even now, amid a pandemic and a drop in real incomes of the population, the dynamics are positive. The indicator for the first quarter is 314 thousand tons. In agricultural enterprises, an increase of one percent, up to 139.4 thousand tons. In farms - by eight, up to 32.4 thousand tons.

    "In Russia, the annual demand for beef reaches 1.94 million tons. Export is 20 thousand, that is, a little more than a percent. Therefore, you should not worry that supplies to China will lead to higher prices in stores. There will be no shortage," Svetlana Panasenko emphasizes. ...

    Unlike the Chinese, Russians prefer cheaper chicken and pork. About 17 percent buy beef. And in the world, demand is slightly higher - about 20.

    As for prices, according to Rosstat, in 2020 the price of meat rose slightly: by two to three percent. But the pace has increased. In the first half of the year, pork added 6.7 percent, beef - 5.6 percent. And chicken is ahead of all - almost 13 percent. A deficit has arisen due to the outbreak of avian flu. Plus, there are problems with the supply of foreign hatching eggs, increasing the price of feed.

    However, poultry and pork production is profitable quickly. It is much more expensive to raise cattle. A significant share of the livestock is concentrated in personal subsidiary plots, and there are fewer and fewer of them. Large agricultural holdings are reluctant to enter this segment. The payback period for a project from scratch is ten to twelve years.

    The current cost of beef does not allow production to be sufficiently profitable. Therefore, farmers will be forced to raise prices. It is predicted that by 2030 this type of meat will rise in price by 10-15 percent.

    https://ria.ru/20210729/produkt-1743306236.html

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    par far

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    Post  par far Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:55 pm

    https://www.rt.com/business/530543-russia-economy-growth-surge/
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:01 am

    par far wrote:https://www.rt.com/business/530543-russia-economy-growth-surge/

    RT is using inflammatory language. A 3% GDP drop in 2020 is nothing compared to the drop in the USA and other
    advanced countries. Also, all of these media reports on the GDP always compare relative growth from one quarter
    to another. The GDP has a strong annual cycle. The only number that matters is the annual mean change.

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    Post  ludovicense Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:08 pm

    par far wrote:https://www.rt.com/business/530543-russia-economy-growth-surge/

    i think that the number of 45% in economic outside oficial data no real , somewhat exaggerated, but no doubt the russian GDP is larger that show statistics in west.
    Scorpius
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    Post  Scorpius Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:37 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/142303/
    https://www.interfax.ru/business/776843

    The surplus of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in January-May amounted to 1.193 trillion rubles.


    One Su-57 fighter costs about 2.3 billion rubles. Thus, approximately 518 Su-57 aircraft can be purchased for this amount.
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    Post  Scorpius Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:50 pm

    The export of agricultural products from Russia since the beginning of the year as of July 25 amounted to $ 16.379 billion, which is 16% higher than on the same date last year, according to the materials of the Federal Center for the Development of Exports of Agricultural Products (FGBI "Agroexport") under the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia.
    https://1prime.ru/Agriculture/20210728/834313112.html

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:17 pm

    I'm posting this just to give KVS high blood pressure

    Worst Russian economy minister ever saying Russia's economic model is bad and should export everything.  Yes, Kudrin....

    https://www.rt.com/russia/530933-kudrin-investment-based-economy-necessity/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com%2F%3Ffromzen%3Dabro

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    franco
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    Post  franco Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:22 pm

    That's mean!

    Twisted Evil

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:26 pm

    Seems they have heard him, exporting everything, with a diversification he could hardly imagine being in charge Laughing
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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:28 pm

    ALAMO wrote:Seems they have heard him, exporting everything, with a diversification he could hardly imagine being in charge Laughing

    Well, he sure didn't do anything he keeps preaching about when he was econ minister.  Actually, he just sold everything, and sent money to us and UK.

    In end, he got demoted pretty hard.

    Also, his numbers seem off. Wonder how he feels about current economic growth?  He won't have much an opinion since it goes counter to his claims.

    I'm certain someone told him that Russia can't export that much since it's sanctioned by the west. Or the fact Russia exports more end made products now than it did 10 years ago

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    ALAMO

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:31 pm

    Just let him die nameless.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:35 pm

    Kudrin is kept around like a court jester. Remember that clown Illarionov? That is what Kudrin's "job" is.

    But, yeah, the drivel he spews is enough to induce a stroke if taken seriously.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:12 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:I'm posting this just to give KVS high blood pressure

    Worst Russian economy minister ever saying Russia's economic model is bad and should export everything.  Yes, Kudrin....

    https://www.rt.com/russia/530933-kudrin-investment-based-economy-necessity/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com%2F%3Ffromzen%3Dabro

    Kudrin and people like him are valuable.

    Their value is to prove that Russia must be a nation ruled by law regardless of Western BS to the contrary, cuz otherwise Kudrin would be arrested, shipped off to Siberia, and stuffed into a very small metal box to be poked hourly with sharp sticks by the families of those who suffered from his near-homicidal policies.

    Seriously... what an idiot Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

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    Post  Nomad5891 Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:29 pm

    It is funny to watch you guys from aside...this circle jerk party you have arround here.

    Spitting on and belittleling Kudrin as if you were some kind of economy gurus.
    It is so, so funny to see the same  4-5 users being experts in demographics, economics, aviation, stealth technology, radar waves, rifles production, rocket propulsion, naval warfare, tank amunition, submarine acoustics...the list goes on and on. Frequently I even wonder how comes you are wasting your great potential here on this forum instead of actually..dunno, take over the planet and bring humanity to new horizons. So much knowledge and expertise...


    Seriosuly though Kudrin is the guy who envisioned and then put in reality  the stability fund that held % of the benefits from exports of oil.
    This same fund later on in the global economic crysis of 2008 helped Russia to not go under as other world economies.

    Kudrin also supported and helped the national champions idea...so now you can go arround and post pictures of the achievments and instalations of megacompanies such as Rosneft or Rosatom.

    Oh, and lets not forget that thanks to Kudrin's prudent management of the Russian economy, Russia could pay back the majority of its international debts, so every time you brag how Russia is one of the countires with lowest debt, remember "traitor" Kudrin is to blame for it.


    I will stop here because, now that I think about it this is a lost cause. Even after 5 years this forum will be the same old 5 know-it-all guys babling how great Russia is and how bad USA is and patting themselves on the back. Kinda F16.net but reversed. Sad.

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:38 pm

    As a one-person jury and reviewer, you must be more omnipotent than all the others mentioned, combined Laughing
    Salute to you!

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    Post  Nomad5891 Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:49 pm

    ALAMO wrote:As a one-person jury and reviewer, you must be more omnipotent than all the others mentioned, combined Laughing
    Salute to you!
    No, no god forbids!
    I am just a troll, a western infiltrator, that knows nothing and that is why I can not apreciate how great Putin and mother Russia is.
    Oh, and dont pay attention to the fact the 5 hardcore Putin fans all live outside of Russia. And none of them has shown any desire to move and live in the great, wonderful, economy and scientific pwoerhorse that Russia is today.

    Anyways back on topic, even a dumb troll like me knows that without competition of free market a company can not create an innovative product. And this is all that  "traitor" Kudrin is saying. In order for Russian economy to really grow and expand it should move from the domestic market to the export market where actual free market and cash is. Then and only then Russian companies will be able to achieve a product that could bring outside fresh money and investments. So they can grow even more and create even better products. And if this goes on and on then some happy day you may have a USA housewife using a Russian made cellphone, a German carpenter driving arround a Russian made van and a French restaurant serving Russian wines to guests clothed in Russian made clothes.

    It is the same as baking cookies for your family and expecting to get rich and also good at baking of cookies. Will never happen. The guy at the bakery across the street that sells cookies to the whole neighbourhood will have more experience, better tasting cookies, better equipment , better raw products and yeah you guessed it - more money.
    Is this so hard to gasp?
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    Post  ALAMO Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:10 pm

    When you start with so high C singing, there is a chance that your voice won't last until the end of the performance Laughing
    You are way too serious, just the same way as many other members here, seeking conspiracies.
    You know shit about the experience and profession of most of the members.
    It might be a Shoigu himself hidden behind some account Laughing
    Sure some guys pretend to know what is inside a black hole, but hey, this is their problem, not yours, right?
    You can find armchair generals, strategists, unrecognized Noble prize should-be-winners everywhere.
    This place is hardly challenging for that matter.
    At least, most of the people are literate Laughing and if someone does not understand basic English, there is a chance he is from the US rather than India.
    Or maybe we all have this problem, as for most of us English is not a native?
    I personally find as extremely valuable the chance to hear what members from the opposite side of the planet have to say.
    Their opinions are refreshing, they are closer to the core of some subjects, have the local language knowledge we lack and can share the conscript of the real situation out there.
    I read that with great respect and curiosity.
    Would not dare to "explain" folks from Oceania or South America, how things are running there. Never been to. But read what they are saying carefully.
    Screw Kudrin.
    He had his five minutes in history, but now he is commenting on the things that are running in another universe. Now, he lost his chance to be quiet. He is just the same way armchair general, as you accusing the other members.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:28 am

    Nomad5891 wrote:
    Anyways back on topic, even a dumb troll like me knows that without competition of free market a company can not create an innovative product. And this is all that  "traitor" Kudrin is saying. In order for Russian economy to really grow and expand it should move from the domestic market to the export market where actual free market and cash is. Then and only then Russian companies will be able to achieve a product that could bring outside fresh money and investments. So they can grow even more and create even better products. And if this goes on and on then some happy day you may have a USA housewife using a Russian made cellphone, a German carpenter driving arround a Russian made van and a French restaurant serving Russian wines to guests clothed in Russian made clothes.
    Is this so hard to gasp?

    Except that won't ever happen

    Because it's not really a free market. It's a dog eat dog market. It's a survival of the fittest market.. and any measure goes..
    The ones who advocate a 'free' market are the ones with the strongest economies and so essentially suggest to everyone else to drop their own protectionist policies towards their own industries, their own import tariffs, their own safety/environmental/technical standards even, adopt all the 'free market' ones instead, and the ones of the 'world trade organization', in which said countries have dominant influence, and carry out reforms suggested by the 'world bank', and stop giving government tenders to just your own companies; allow 'international' companies to bid for them as well.

    It's all just word games.

    In reality their cellphones, vans, wines and clothes are either their own produced in their own countries, or produced in 3rd countries but by their own companies.

    When the company of a 3rd country tries to sell them something however, one that's not part of the clan or the extended clan, that's when they get chased out like Huawei was. Or the same Opium Wars against China 150 years ago over much the same thing. The methods have changed somewhat, but the motivation and behavioural impulses haven't.
    To some extent they will follow their own principles of course, and buy Russian robots like the Promobot that American companies are buying up now, or Russian rocket engines, but only either as a matter of necessity, as a joint-business venture, or while they're sure that the 'free trade' situation still benefits them and their own companies overall. The moment it doesn't, is when a figure like Trump comes along and starts instituting protectionism and bringing industries back to native shores.

    And this isn't so much an indictment of the West, as it is of capitalism on the whole.
    Lately China has been the one, to advocate globalist free trade more and more, while the West is growing colder on the issue now that they've seen the economic behemoth their own trade policies have helped grow..

    What's Russia to do in this situation?
    Well, focus on the countries that are receptive to its goods and expand in their markets, sell the stuff to the West that its ready to buy and ignore it for what it's not, integrate with other ex-Soviet states and their markets & industries, get a foot in the other door by participating in the BRICS bank and other alternative initiatives in addition to the 'world' and 'international' ones, but above all build for internal demand; the internal market of the country is viable enough to turn a large profit as it is.

    GarryB and miketheterrible like this post

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    ALAMO

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:36 am

    Don't be so sure about that, bro.
    Russian-made equipment is being delivered all over Europe, but we hardly notice that.
    Tons of cars being sold in the EU market are the ones produced in Russia. For example, Skoda.
    The same applies to car parts, engines, gearboxes etc.
    Russian agricultural machines are doing double-digit sales increase in all EU countries with developed agriculture, like France, Germany and the Netherlands
    With increasing numbers of Ukrainians all along with the EU, some pressured demand for Russian brands appeared, too.
    I have already spotted Russian sweets in Polish shops.
    Russian vodka is being sold in a regular manner for years, it is even being counterfeited.
    Russian-made machines are delivered to the companies as well. Cranes, excavators, this kind of stuff.
    And remember, that we are talking about covid times, and sanctions ...
    flamming_python
    flamming_python

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:55 am

    ALAMO wrote:Don't be so sure about that, bro.
    Russian-made equipment is being delivered all over Europe, but we hardly notice that.
    Tons of cars being sold in the EU market are the ones produced in Russia. For example, Skoda.
    The same applies to car parts, engines, gearboxes etc.
    Russian agricultural machines are doing double-digit sales increase in all EU countries with developed agriculture, like France, Germany and the Netherlands
    With increasing numbers of Ukrainians all along with the EU, some pressured demand for Russian brands appeared, too.
    I have already spotted Russian sweets in Polish shops.
    Russian vodka is being sold in a regular manner for years, it is even being counterfeited.
    Russian-made machines are delivered to the companies as well. Cranes, excavators, this kind of stuff.
    And remember, that we are talking about covid times, and sanctions ...

    Key sentence is your last one

    In practice, every measure has been taken to limit Russia's development, apart from those measures that would cause Europe more harm than acceptable

    Russia's relative export success is a function of the laws, regulations and economic structure in place. But all those same things still ensure a much higher amount of value-added European exports to Russia than vice-versa.
    Most Russian exports to Europe still consist of natural resources of one type or another.

    Yet if Russia continues in the revival & modernization of its industrial-economy, and continues to progress in the high-tech fields, then I predict rather more interesting times ahead. Europe, Germany views all that stuff ultimately as competition for its internal or foreign markets.

    I do agree more with your arguments than GarryB's ones in that other thread. But at the same time I rather share his pessimism, than your optimism

    What did WW1 start from, if not from competition.
    We probably won't see a global conventional war like that one again, but for sure there will be all sorts of tricks in play.

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